ATP Race and YE#1 2023 Discussion

[mightyjeditribble]

Couldn't see a thread for this, sorry if I missed it.

Post-USO, it is the time when thoughts turn to who will make it to the Tour Finals at the end of the year in Turin. Current standings (Top 14, September 25) are as follows:

Rankings | PIF ATP Live Race to Turin | ATP Tour | Tennis | ATP Tour | Tennis

Official standings in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin, which determines which eight tennis singles players qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals.

www.atptour.com

1. Djokovic - 8,945
2. Alcaraz - 8,175
3. Medvedev - 6,590
4. Sinner - 4,365
5. Rublev - 3,640
6. Tsitsipas - 3,570
7. Rune - 3,055
8. Zverev - 3,030
9. Fritz - 3,010
10. Ruud - 2,625
11. de Minaur - 2,505
12. Paul - 2,435
13. Tiafoe - 2,210
14. Khachanov - 1,910.

Zverev will move up to 7 with his Chengdu results (currently on 3,110 in the live race, could get up to 3,270 with a win). Khachanov will have at least 2,000 points and up to 2,160 after Zhuhai.

Of course, a lot of other players can still make it in theory, but No 15 Norrie (1,895) is more than 1000 points behind 8th place, so it would take a significant effort to make it.

The top 3 are already qualified. #4 sinner is a long way behind the top 3, so I think we know who will have the top 3 spots at the end of the year, but not who will come out on top - Djokovic is well ahead, but some strong performances by Alcaraz at the remaining MS events should make it likely that YE#1 will be decided at the Tour Finals. Medvedev is still hypothetically in the race for YE#1, but that seems a very long shot at this point.

Very close for the remaining places, particularly between 7-9. A drop-off after this. Ruud is capable of playing himself into contention, in principle, but given his results this year, I am doubtful that he will. The other contenders in places 11-14 also do not inspire that much confidence that they will crash the party, so while it's still very early, I would guess that the current top 4 will make it, and 4 of the players in 5-9. But (barring injury withdrawals) at least one of them will miss out. Who will make it?

 

[Hitman]

Rublev and Tsitsipas should certainly make it.

I think with his injury, Rune might be the one to not do it, and Zverev and Frtiz will take the final two spots.

So, it should be

Alcaraz
Djokovic
Medvedev
Sinner
Rublev
Tsitsipas
Zverev
Fritz

That is quite the line up.

 

[dking68]

Rublev and Tsitsipas should certainly make it.

I think with his injury, Rune might be the one to not do it, and Zverev and Frtiz will take the final two spots.

So, it should be

Alcaraz
Djokovic
Medvedev
Sinner
Rublev
Tsitsipas
Zverev
Fritz

That is quite the line up.

I’m hoping Sinner wins the title in Turin. He needs to go into 24’ with maximum confidence to win a grand slam title. If Djokovic doesn’t win it, I’m backing him to take the title in Turin

 

[Hitman]

I’m hoping Sinner wins the title in Turin. He needs to go into 24’ with maximum confidence to win a grand slam title. If Djokovic doesn’t win it, I’m backing him to take the title in Turin

its going to be a very tough draw for all of them honestly

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Rublev and Tsitsipas should certainly make it.

I think with his injury, Rune might be the one to not do it, and Zverev and Frtiz will take the final two spots.

So, it should be

Alcaraz
Djokovic
Medvedev
Sinner
Rublev
Tsitsipas
Zverev
Fritz

That is quite the line up.

Hm, I had somehow missed the Rune injury story. I guess he is hoping to come back in China. It would be a shame if he wasn't there and in form for the ATP finals, IMO.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Rublev and Tsitsipas should certainly make it.

I agree about Rublev, less sure about Tsitsipas. He has been very inconsistent of late, and could quite easily bomb out of the big tournaments left. On the other hand, he has a bit of a cushion over the others, so on balance he will probably make it. (I hope he does!)

 

[dking68]

its going to be a very tough draw for all of them honestly

Yeah I agree but Sinner needs the title. Cause he hasn’t progressed in slams, and many call his maiden masters title a fluke. He needs to prove the world he can beat the best and go into AO 2024 on a high. If he wins in Turin, he’s going to be very very dangerous in Melbourne, with the right draw and hopefully if he serves well enough, he should make the finals

 

[dking68]

Couldn't see a thread for this, sorry if I missed it.

Post-USO, it is the time when thoughts turn to who will make it to the Tour Finals at the end of the year in Turin. Current standings (Top 14, September 25) are as follows:

Rankings | PIF ATP Live Race to Turin | ATP Tour | Tennis | ATP Tour | Tennis

Official standings in the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin, which determines which eight tennis singles players qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals.

www.atptour.com

1. Djokovic - 8,945
2. Alcaraz - 8,175
3. Medvedev - 6,590
4. Sinner - 4,365
5. Rublev - 3,640
6. Tsitsipas - 3,570
7. Rune - 3,055
8. Zverev - 3,030
9. Fritz - 3,010
10. Ruud - 2,625
11. de Minaur - 2,505
12. Paul - 2,435
13. Tiafoe - 2,210
14. Khachanov - 1,910.

Zverev will move up to 7 with his Chengdu results (currently on 3,110 in the live race, could get up to 3,270 with a win). Khachanov will have at least 2,000 points and up to 2,160 after Zhuhai.

Of course, a lot of other players can still make it in theory, but No 15 Norrie (1,895) is more than 1000 points behind 8th place, so it would take a significant effort to make it.

The top 3 are already qualified. #4 sinner is a long way behind the top 3, so I think we know who will have the top 3 spots at the end of the year, but not who will come out on top - Djokovic is well ahead, but some strong performances by Alcaraz at the remaining MS events should make it likely that YE#1 will be decided at the Tour Finals. Medvedev is still hypothetically in the race for YE#1, but that seems a very long shot at this point.

Very close for the remaining places, particularly between 7-9. A drop-off after this. Ruud is capable of playing himself into contention, in principle, but given his results this year, I am doubtful that he will. The other contenders in places 11-14 also do not inspire that much confidence that they will crash the party, so while it's still very early, I would guess that the current top 4 will make it, and 4 of the players in 5-9. But (barring injury withdrawals) at least one of them will miss out. Who will make it?

I think Rune is going to miss out.

 

[Hitman]

Hm, I had somehow missed the Rune injury story. I guess he is hoping to come back in China. It would be a shame if he wasn't there and in form for the ATP finals, IMO.

Yes, it is a shame, but he has back issue. I like Rune a lot, but if he is not in any shape, the other guys are not going to let him get to Turin.

 

[Hitman]

I agree about Rune, less sure about Tsitsipas. He has been very inconsistent of late, and could quite easily bomb out of the big tournaments left. On the other hand, he has a bit of a cushion over the others, so on balance he will probably make it. (I hope he does!)

I get your point, but I do think Tsitsipas will get it together to make a final push to Turin. He does have the points cushion.

 

[Hitman]

Yeah I agree but Sinner needs the title. Cause he hasn’t progressed in slams, and many call his maiden masters title a fluke. He needs to prove the world he can beat the best and go into AO 2024 on a high. If he wins in Turin, he’s going to be very very dangerous in Melbourne, with the right draw and hopefully if he serves well enough, he should make the finals

I totally agree with your point here, Sinner has the game for Turin, no question, and if he can put it together, then he will have the confidence to take the next big step to the slams in 2024.

Medvedev won YEC in 2020, and the following year, he made two slam finals and won one of them.

 

[dking68]

I totally agree with your point here, Sinner has the game for Turin, no question, and if he can put it together, then he will have the confidence to take the next big step to the slams in 2024.

Medvedev won YEC in 2020, and the following year, he made two slam finals and won one of them.

If he doesn’t make a slam final next year, I think he should change coaches. I just can’t see why he hasn’t made a qualitative leap in slams and my thinking his serve is substandard for a top ten player

 

[Hitman]

If he doesn’t make a slam final next year, I think he should change coaches. I just can’t see why he hasn’t made a qualitative leap in slams and my thinking his serve is substandard for a top ten player

He should be part of the new big 3 along with Alcaraz and Rune, we know he has the talent. It is about what is between the ears really and sometimes it takes a new coach to reach that. Lets see, he's won his first masters title, so he has taken the first step.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

I’m hoping Sinner wins the title in Turin. He needs to go into 24’ with maximum confidence to win a grand slam title. If Djokovic doesn’t win it, I’m backing him to take the title in Turin

Oh God, Sinner again

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Oh God, Sinner again

 

[mightyjeditribble]

I agree about Rublev, less sure about Tsitsipas. He has been very inconsistent of late, and could quite easily bomb out of the big tournaments left. On the other hand, he has a bit of a cushion over the others, so on balance he will probably make it. (I hope he does!)

Tsitsipas losing in the first round in China is not a good sign for his chances IMO. Might not matter so much points-wise unless one of Zed or Rune wins the tournament. But another early exit in Shanghai and that WTF slot will look in serious jeopardy ...

 

[JJGUY]

Med is closing in with Alcaraz, if he wins Beijing tomorrow (most likely he will), he will have 7090 points, and if he defends his Shanghai title, it would be 8090 points, there will be some real battles b/t Med and Alcaraz

 

[Aabye5]

Med is closing in with Alcaraz, if he wins Beijing tomorrow (most likely he will), he will have 7090 points, and if he defends his Shanghai title, it would be 8090 points, there will be some real battles b/t Med and Alcaraz

I say he won't defend, but Paris will be interesting

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Shanghai could obviously be huge in the what transpires at the top of the rankings for the end of the season. If Alcaraz wins, he overtakes Djokovic. Medvedev could get close to Alcaraz should he defend.

Rune's early loss gives Fritz a chance to move into the #8 spot.

 

[DSH]

I’m hoping Sinner wins the title in Turin. He needs to go into 24’ with maximum confidence to win a grand slam title. If Djokovic doesn’t win it, I’m backing him to take the title in Turin

Il ragazzo dalle "cosce di gallina" potrà iniziare la sua leggenda vincendo le ATP Finals nel suo paese d'origine.

 

[dking68]

Il ragazzo dalle "cosce di gallina" potrà iniziare la sua leggenda vincendo le ATP Finals nel suo paese d'origine.

Yes!!! Let’s go Sinner! Beat the talented Spaniard into the ground and show him the road to success is full of thorns!

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Some interesting things to watch in Shanghai when it comes to the YEC places:

Q1. Khachanov (#13 in the race) would need a big result in order to put himself into contention for the remaining places, but is seeded to face Alcaraz in R16. Unless he gets a big result (or Alcaraz is taken out by Evans), I don't see it happening for him (unless he can pull off another dream run in Paris).

Taylor Fritz (#9) has a golden opportunity to reach at least the QF, which would place him just 10 points behind #8 Rune. Again, he is likely to face Alcaraz there, so will have to beat him to actually make it to the top 8.

Q2 is particularly interesting. Tsitsipas and Rublev are the top dogs here, and both are already in pole position to qualify for Turin. If one of them makes the semi, while it wouldn't be enough to absolutely guarantee qualification, it is very likely to be enough. Based on form this year, you would give Rublev the edge, but he has got Tommy Paul (#12) in his section, who may also still harbor hopes of getting himself into contention at least. Tsitsipas has a great opportunity to make at least the quarters, but given his recent results, who knows whether he will come through ...

The only real contender in Q3 is Ruud (#10) - Hurkacz at #16 is too far off the pace unless he wins one of the MS events, really. But he could still play spoiler for Ruud, who has not been in great form and would surely love at least a semi run in order to stay in contention for one of the spots.

Since Sinner is already qualified, there is no interest from this point of view in Q4. Unless fatigue gets to him, he is certainly the favourite to reach the final from the bottom half - and likely to stop Ruud/Hurkacz in the semis if they make it there.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Numbers 6-9 in the race all lost early ... Can someone else grab the opportunity? Apart from Rublev, who I think is virtually certain of his spot if he reaches the semis, only Ruud and Paul are left in the draw of those who are genuinely in contention.

Rublev is surely favoured against Paul; if he wins, then this leaves Ruud, who could yet play himself into contention but will probably have to go past Hurkacz.

 

[Fabresque]

Alcaraz
Djokovic
Medvedev
Sinner
- All easily make it. By far the best 4 players in the world.

I think Rublev is the only other one I’d be certain to make it. That’s 5.

Tsitsipas has been playing really bad but he has somewhat of a cushion. Rune is playing worse but without the cushion. One of these two misses out.

After that, im not as sure. I think Zverev for sure makes it, his form is way too good to miss it this year. One of Ruud/Fritz misses out and I have no clue which one it is. Leaning towards Ruud missing it.

So the final 4 imo will be

Rublev
Tsitsipas
Zverev
Fritz

Rune to be the one to miss out after a disastrous season post clay.

 

[JJGUY]

there are 6 events left, in theory, doing well in those events can add 250~2000 points, a lot could still happen before the final.

10/16-10/22
Tokyo 500 (Fritz, Ruud, Zverev)
Antwerp 250 (Sinner, Tsitsipas)
Stockholm 250 (Rune)

10/23-10/29
Basel 500 (Alcaraz, Rune, Fritz, Ruud)
Vienna 500 (Medvedev, Sinner, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Zverev)

10/30-11/05
Paris 1000 (all on the list)

 

[mightyjeditribble]

there are 6 events left, in theory, doing well in those events can add 250~2000 points, a lot could still happen before the final.

10/16-10/22
Tokyo 500 (Fritz, Ruud, Zverev)
Antwerp 250 (Sinner, Tsitsipas)
Stockholm 250 (Rune)

10/23-10/29
Basel 500 (Alcaraz, Rune, Fritz, Ruud)
Vienna 500 (Medvedev, Sinner, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Zverev)

10/30-11/05
Paris 1000 (all on the list)

Yes, still quite a few points in play. But Shanghai was a big chance to add points for the contenders, and most of them have failed at that hurdle - so the window is closing somewhat. For those who are further down the list, a win in one of the next two weeks is the least they need to be in the conversation by the time Paris comes around.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Alcaraz
Djokovic
Medvedev
Sinner
- All easily make it. By far the best 4 players in the world.

I think Rublev is the only other one I’d be certain to make it. That’s 5.

Tsitsipas has been playing really bad but he has somewhat of a cushion. Rune is playing worse but without the cushion. One of these two misses out.

After that, im not as sure. I think Zverev for sure makes it, his form is way too good to miss it this year. One of Ruud/Fritz misses out and I have no clue which one it is. Leaning towards Ruud missing it.

So the final 4 imo will be

Rublev
Tsitsipas
Zverev
Fritz

Rune to be the one to miss out after a disastrous season post clay.

I mostly agree. The top 4 are already qualified. Rublev is pretty much on track, and if he wins another couple of matches in Shanghai, I reckon he's as good as safe. Unless Zverev's form drops a lot, I also think he should make it. So two more places left, and Tsitsipas, Rune, Fritz and Ruud the most likely contenders. None of them have been very persuasive, so it's hard to pick. If Rune is really injured, I agree he's likely to miss out. Tsitsipas has a bit more of a cushion. But I'm not sure I trust Fritz to take advantage either.

And of course there's the off-chance that someone else has a surprise run and wins e.g. Paris, which could throw the cat among the pigeons. Perhaps Hubi or Shelton could get themselves into the conversation if they pull off a shock tournament win in Shanghai. Although they'd still be some way off the top 8. Paul is closer, but I have my doubts that he will make it past Rublev ...

 

[BeatlesFan]

there are 6 events left, in theory, doing well in those events can add 250~2000 points, a lot could still happen before the final.

Don't forget the Moselle Open in Metz. Both Rune and Ruud are on the entry list, both late entries. That's a 250 event right before the YEC.

 

[onyxrose81]

Maybe Rune missing out will make him understand the importance of actually letting injures heal.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Don't forget the Moselle Open in Metz. Both Rune and Ruud are on the entry list, both late entries. That's a 250 event right before the YEC.

Does this still count for entry to YEC?

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Rublev has the opportunity to qualify by winning the title in Shanghai. Even if he doesn't, he has likely already done enough to get one of the spots, even more so if he wins the final, in which case he will over 1000 points ahead of Fritz in 9th place.

If Hurkacz wins the title, he will have just about played himself into contention, in 11th place just behind Ruud. I think even then it will be hard for him, unless he has another big result. Dimitrov would also go up to 11th, but would be even further behind.

 

[albertobra]

6
Stefanos Tsitsipas
3615

7
Alexander Zverev
3415

8
Holger Rune
3110

9
Taylor Fritz
2965

10
Casper Ruud
2795

11
Hubert Hurkacz
2775

12
Tommy Paul
2525

13
Alex de Minaur
2515

3 spots open for 8 players

 

[JJGUY]

with the Shanghai win, Hubi put himself in the race for the final 8, he is listed in Tokyo, Basel and Paris.


10/16-10/22
Tokyo 500 (Fritz, Ruud, Zverev) Hurkacz
Antwerp 250 (Sinner, Tsitsipas)
Stockholm 250 (Rune)

10/23-10/29
Basel 500 (Alcaraz, Rune, Fritz, Ruud) Hurkacz
Vienna 500 (Medvedev, Sinner, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Zverev)

10/30-11/05
Paris 1000 (all on the list)

 

[Rattie]

Apart from just beating Rublev by a point or two in Shanghai, the only other top 10 player Hurkacz beat this year is Tsitsipas. Players win one title and this forum gets over excited I tend to find.

 

[JJGUY]

Apart from just beating Rublev by a point or two in Shanghai, the only other top 10 player Hurkacz beat this year is Tsitsipas. Players win one title and this forum gets over excited I tend to find.

meanwhile top 10 player Fritz has only two wins too, one against Tsitsipas, the other against Rune.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

So, what's going on with the race this week?

With Sinner withdrawing from Antwerp, Tsitsipas is the only top player left in the draw. His goal will be to win the title for sure, to firm up his position as top 6 in the race, and for a much-needed boost after disappointing results.

Likewise, Rune is the main guy in Stockholm. If he is healthy, he should be the clear favourite to bag the 250 points. It's not unlikely that he needs to do just that if he wants to stay in the top 8, because ...

There are are 500 points to be won in Tokyo, and Numbers 9-13 in the race are all competing for this: Fritz, Ruud, Hurkacz, Paul and de Minaur. Fritz will move to the eighth spot if he's the champion; if Ruud or Hurkacz win the title, they'll move to #8 if Rune does not win Antwerp. The other two are further behind but would love a lot closer to the top with a win ...

Things could be pretty tight in the places 8-10 after this week, depending on how things go!

 

[JJGUY]

Alcaraz withdrew from Basel, left foot injury and muscle fatigue

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Alcaraz withdrew from Basel, left foot injury and muscle fatigue

I hope he will be better in time for the WTF, it would be a shame otherwise.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Well, Rune and Ruud are out. Two more wins for Fritz, and he's in spot 8; he could even overtake Zverev with a win in Tokyo.

Should either Paul or de Minaur win, they will still be somewhat in contention. But even then they are probably too far behind.

Given how this race has been going, it seems to be more of a race of who will screw up the least. I'd love to see someone grab one of the final places with a great performance in Paris, but it seems more likely that the race will end with a bit of a whimper.

 

[JJGUY]

Djokovic currently has 8945 points banked, exactly 500 points ahead of Alcaraz 8445 points, the Paris and Turin will decide who will be year end #1.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Pretty pathetic really, that everyone from #8-15 in the race lost before the SF this week! Only Tsitsipas of all people is still standing in Antwerp. Even if he loses to Fils in the semis, based on what's happened in the past couple of weeks I would reckon he is pretty safe.

Which would mean there are two places still properly in play, barring big surprises. Zed has a bit of a buffer in 7th, with Rune and Fritz most likely contenders for the 8th. Ruud & Hurkacz are further behind but could still be in the mix.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Update:

1. Djokovic - 8,945
2. Alcaraz - 8,445
3. Medvedev - 6,935
4. Sinner - 4,945
5. Rublev - 4,275

6. Tsitsipas - 3,705
7. Zverev - 3,415
8. Rune - 3,110
9. Fritz - 2,965
10. Ruud - 2,815
11. Hurkacz - 2,775
12. Paul - 2,595
13. de Minaur - 2,560

Upcoming tournaments (500 points for the winner of either tournament):
Vienna - Medvedev, Sinner, Rublev, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Paul
Basel - Rune, Fritz, Ruud, Hurkacz, de Minaur.

 

[JJGUY]

Update:

1. Djokovic - 8,945
2. Alcaraz - 8,175
3. Medvedev - 6,935
4. Sinner - 4,945
5. Rublev - 4,275

6. Tsitsipas - 3,705 (Antwerp SF) - can go up to 3,765 or 3,865 with F or W in Antwerp
7. Zverev - 3,415
8. Rune - 3,110
9. Fritz - 2,965
10. Ruud - 2,815
11. Hurkacz - 2,775
12. Paul - 2,595
13. de Minaur - 2,560

Upcoming tournaments (500 points for the winner of either tournament):
Vienna - Medvedev, Sinner, Rublev, Tsitsipas, Zverev, Paul
Basel - Rune, Fritz, Ruud, Hurkacz, de Minaur.

Alcaraz has 8,445 poinits

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Alcaraz has 8,445 poinits

Thanks - so he does! Corrected.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

No notable casualties this week wrt the main Turin contenders. Things to watch:

1) Rublev to qualify - I believe I read that one more win will mean he qualifies for the season finale. In the unlikely event that he loses to Arnaldi, I believe he is still be likely to qualify by the end of the week.

2) Tsitsipas&Zverev to consolidate their places? Tsits is nearly 700 points ahead of Fritz in 9th, and Zverev still a respectable 440. If they manage to maintain a similar lead going into Paris, they'll be in a fairly comfortable position with regards to qualification.

3) Rune v Fritz showdown? Both are in the same half in Basel. If they both make the semis (not a given in view of recent form), it would be a showdown to determine whether Rune holds on to #8, or whether Fritz goes into Paris tied with or even ahead of him.

4) All eyes on Basel. Who wins Basel could play a huge role in the race. If it's Rune or Fritz, the #8 point total will go up to about 3500, and it will be hard for anyone at #10 or below to qualify barring a final or title run in Paris. But if one of the other contenders can grab the Basel title, they may still be in with a shot.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Fritz goes down in Basel 3R, so Rune can solidify his position at #8 for Turin. Paris will be the decider, though both Rune and Ruud are on the entry list for the 250 in Metz, the week before the YEC.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Update: Points ahead of Paris Masters.

1. Djokovic - 8,945
2. Alcaraz - 8,445
3. Medvedev - 7,145
4. Sinner - 5,400
5. Rublev - 4,410

6. Tsitsipas - 3,875
7. Zverev - 3,460

8. Rune - 3,280
9. Hurkacz - 3,065
10. Fritz - 3,055

11. Ruud - 2,815
12. Paul - 2,620
13. de Minaur - 2,560

There is one question that I have not been able to get definitive information on, and which is puzzling me. Does the Moselle Open, held in the week after Paris, still count for the ATP Race? The relevant sentence in the ATP WTF rules is as follows:

"The eight seeds are determined by the Pepperstone ATP Race To Turin and Pepperstone ATP Doubles Team Rankings on the Monday after the last ATP Tour tournament of the calendar year."

Technically speaking, this would seem to suggest that, yes, the Moselle Open still counts. But on the Monday in question, the WTF will ALREADY have started. Moreover, will they really potentially wait to announce the participants and the groups until after the finals have been played in Metz? I think previously, there was no ATP tournament in that week, so the question did not arise. From everything I can see, however, this does indeed seem to be the procedure. It seems bonkers - presumably they just hope that the situation will not arise that the final will decide the participants?

Anyway, let's focus on what the situation will be after Paris. There are 1000 points for the winner, 600 for the runner up, 360 for the semifinals, and 180 for QF. So, crucially, Hurkacz and Fritz cannot overtake Rune, even as it stands, without reaching the semis. Ruud would have to at least reach the final, and for Paul (and anyone else), anything other than winning the title will not bring them into a top 8 position. Since Tsitsipas has a 400+-point lead over Zverev, he is guaranteed to stay in the top 8 at least until Paris, no matter his result. Zverev is also VERY likely to remain in the top 8, as anything else would require Rune to reach at least the semis, Hurkacz reach the final, and Paul or de Minaur to win the title.

In conclusion - barring major upsets, which of course can happen - if Rune can fulfil his ranking, knock out Fritz and make at least the QF, he may be sitting quite comfortably in 8th place at the end of the tournament. Otherwise, there could be a chance for Hurkacz to get close, if not overtake him - and to make things interesting for the Moselle Open, where the top 5 seeds are Rune, Ruud, Hurkacz, Paul and de Minaur ...

The Paris draw has thrown up some interesting potential match-ups for the contenders. Tsitsipas and Zverev are seeded to meet in R3, with the winner seeded to play Alcaraz in the SF. On the mirror-side of the draw, we have Rune and Fritz seeded to meet in R3, and playing Djokovic in the quarters. Finally, Hurkacz and Ruud are also seeded to play in R3, and to face Medvedev in the QF.

 

[Aabye5]

Update: Points ahead of Paris Masters.

1. Djokovic - 8,945
2. Alcaraz - 8,445
3. Medvedev - 7,145
4. Sinner - 5,400
5. Rublev - 4,410

6. Tsitsipas - 3,875
7. Zverev - 3,460

8. Rune - 3,280
9. Hurkacz - 3,065
10. Fritz - 3,055

11. Ruud - 2,815
12. Paul - 2,620
13. de Minaur - 2,560

There is one question that I have not been able to get definitive information on, and which is puzzling me. Does the Moselle Open, held in the week after Paris, still count for the ATP Race? The relevant sentence in the ATP WTF rules is as follows:



Technically speaking, this would seem to suggest that, yes, the Moselle Open still counts. But on the Monday in question, the WTF will ALREADY have started. Moreover, will they really potentially wait to announce the participants and the groups until after the finals have been played in Metz? I think previously, there was no ATP tournament in that week, so the question did not arise. From everything I can see, however, this does indeed seem to be the procedure. It seems bonkers - presumably they just hope that the situation will not arise that the final will decide the participants?

Anyway, let's focus on what the situation will be after Paris. There are 1000 points for the winner, 600 for the runner up, 360 for the semifinals, and 180 for QF. So, crucially, Hurkacz and Fritz cannot overtake Rune, even as it stands, without reaching the semis. Ruud would have to at least reach the final, and for Paul (and anyone else), anything other than winning the title will not bring them into a top 8 position. Since Tsitsipas has a 400+-point lead over Zverev, he is guaranteed to stay in the top 8 at least until Paris, no matter his result. Zverev is also VERY likely to remain in the top 8, as anything else would require Rune to reach at least the semis, Hurkacz reach the final, and Paul or de Minaur to win the title.

In conclusion - barring major upsets, which of course can happen - if Rune can fulfil his ranking, knock out Fritz and make at least the QF, he may be sitting quite comfortably in 8th place at the end of the tournament. Otherwise, there could be a chance for Hurkacz to get close, if not overtake him - and to make things interesting for the Moselle Open, where the top 5 seeds are Rune, Ruud, Hurkacz, Paul and de Minaur ...

The Paris draw has thrown up some interesting potential match-ups for the contenders. Tsitsipas and Zverev are seeded to meet in R3, with the winner seeded to play Alcaraz in the SF. On the mirror-side of the draw, we have Rune and Fritz seeded to meet in R3, and playing Djokovic in the quarters. Finally, Hurkacz and Ruud are also seeded to play in R3, and to face Medvedev in the QF.

So basically, this was a long-winded explanation to say that it's Hubi's turn to shine?

Actually, he may have hurt his chances by this late burst of success.

 

[DSH]

If Rune falls in the quarterfinals at most and HH reaches the semifinals, the Pole would be the eighth passenger for the ATP Finals, right?

 

[Terenigma]

Was literally just wondering about this. It looks like it's between Zverev/Rune/Hurkacz now that Fritz and Ruud both lost. Also Rune is still carrying that injury, right? Really hoping Zverev makes it in but it seems all but confirmed he's in now even if he somehow chokes against Humbert.