Andrey Rublev is the hard court Ferrer

[The Guru]

TTW needs a break from the fan wars so hears a hopefully interesting topic to discuss instead. Rublev made a huge leap this year from outside the top 20 to qualifying for the ATP finals, winning 5 titles, and career best results at all 3 slams he played. However, I'm really doubting how much better he can really get. This seems like an odd thing to say about someone who just showed massive improvement in a breakout year but I'm convinced his game is to limited to ever seriously challenge for big titles. His forehand is awesome no doubt about it but outside of that he's got nothing special and there's nothing that I can point to and say that can realistically get a lot better. He's a good mover but he's not going to get any better because he's just not that physically gifted. His backhand is a weakness that he has to protect and his movement and running forehand aren't good enough to compensate. I've also never seen anything from his backhand that makes me think he can make it much better. His serve is fine for his size but it's nothing special. His effort though is absolutely phenomenal. He's also been remarkably consistent. Sound like anyone familiar?

David Ferrer seems like a great comparison for Rublev except that he prefers clay courts to hard courts. They are both good on both of course. This is no slander to Rublev Ferrer had a phenomenal career and was great for the game. However, Rublev's breakout has given him higher expectations and those should be tempered. I see a significant talent gap between him and those ranked above him (Thiem, Zverev, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, and Big 3) not to mention future up and comers like Sinner (elo is top 10 already ) and Alcaraz could also be special but it's too early for him. My guess is that Rublev will be the hard working gatekeeper for these guys for the foreseeable future. We'll see him in many semi finals and we'll see him winning 500s but grand slam glory won't be in the cards. However, he'll be consistent top 10 and will probably crack the top 5 at some point and maybe sneak a masters like Ferrer did.

 

[Tshooter]

Yup, Ferrer had a phenominal career and is 7th all-time leader in earnings (not inflation adjusted). It’s a tall order for Ruby.

 

[socallefty]

What do you think improved in his game this year to improve his results so much? And did you think those improvements were going to happen at the end of last year?

He is still a young player and I think he will improve further as he seems to be willing to work hard and his mental toughness is increasing. Never underestimate a top 10 pro who shows the ability to win a lot of tournaments even if they are smaller ones currently. I think he might have 1-3 Slam titles in his future once Nadal and Djokovic stop dominating - Thiem won’t win them all.

 

[Cabeza del Demonio]

I think Rublev actually has a higher ceiling than Ferrer. He's got serious firepower and a cracker of a FH that Ferrer lacked. That said, to maximize his talent and have the glittering career of Ferrer, he's got to work like mad - it's going to be insanely hard for anyone to match Ferrer's work ethic.

But if Rublev can put in that much work and have the same consistent competitive intensity - which I wouldn't put past Rublev, he's another work horse - he can go beyond what Ferrer was able to achieve. With a game like his, Grand Slams are within his grasp.

 

[King No1e]

TTW needs a break from the fan wars so hears a hopefully interesting topic to discuss instead. Rublev made a huge leap this year from outside the top 20 to qualifying for the ATP finals, winning 5 titles, and career best results at all 3 slams he played. However, I'm really doubting how much better he can really get. This seems like an odd thing to say about someone who just showed massive improvement in a breakout year but I'm convinced his game is to limited to ever seriously challenge for big titles. His forehand is awesome no doubt about it but outside of that he's got nothing special and there's nothing that I can point to and say that can realistically get a lot better. He's a good mover but he's not going to get any better because he's just not that physically gifted. His backhand is a weakness that he has to protect and his movement and running forehand aren't good enough to compensate. I've also never seen anything from his backhand that makes me think he can make it much better. His serve is fine for his size but it's nothing special. His effort though is absolutely phenomenal. He's also been remarkably consistent. Sound like anyone familiar?

David Ferrer seems like a great comparison for Rublev except that he prefers clay courts to hard courts. They are both good on both of course. This is no slander to Rublev Ferrer had a phenomenal career and was great for the game. However, Rublev's breakout has given him higher expectations and those should be tempered. I see a significant talent gap between him and those ranked above him (Thiem, Zverev, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, and Big 3) not to mention future up and comers like Sinner (elo is top 10 already ) and Alcaraz could also be special but it's too early for him. My guess is that Rublev will be the hard working gatekeeper for these guys for the foreseeable future. We'll see him in many semi finals and we'll see him winning 500s but grand slam glory won't be in the cards. However, he'll be consistent top 10 and will probably crack the top 5 at some point and maybe sneak a masters like Ferrer did.

If Ferrer got to a Slam final and consistently knocked on the Big 4's door, then Rublev (who can actually blow opponents off the court and not rely on rope-a-dope grinding tennis like Ferrer) can easily win a Slam or 2 in this era.

A better comparison to Ferrer (not for results, but for playing style) would be Schwartzman.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

His first year at the top, wait awhile yet. So far he's been the ultimate pigeon mug a la ferrer indeed, hopefully this changes.

I'd say Ferrer is exactly the worst kind of player for the game though - the high consistency low peak kind that's great at squeezing lesser players then getting shredded by better ones, the least exciting scenario to play out.

 

[metsman]

Tim is the hard court and clay court Ferrer with potentially better longevity at the top. Heard it here first. Has yet to match Ferrer on grass.

 

[Cashman]

I mean... isn’t Ferrer the hard court Ferrer? His performances were pretty similar across clay and hard.

 

[mike danny]

Tim is the hard court and clay court Ferrer with potentially better longevity at the top. Heard it here first. Has yet to match Ferrer on grass.

You have many good opinions, but I disagree on this one. Thiem is still a better and more dangerous player than Ferrer, even if he is playing in a weaker era than Ferrer was.

Ferrer wouldn't do jack even against the older Big 3.

 

[mike danny]

Rublev is decent, but unless he actually does something in the big events, it won't matter how many 500's he wins.

This year he has done little in the big events. Yes, he reached 2 slam QF and another 4th round, but he lost rather comfortably all 3 times he got there to guys he shouldn't lose that easily to.

 

[abmk]

When you don't know Ferrer was on a similar level on HC as he was on clay....

 

[mike danny]

I mean... isn’t Ferrer the hard court Ferrer? His performances were pretty similar across clay and hard.

When you don't know Ferrer was on a similar level on HC as he was on clay....

Yeah, I don't think it is as clear cut as people think that Ferrer was better on clay.

 

[ibbi]

I think Ferrer would bite your hand off if you offered him Rublev's forehand.

And Rublev (it is early to say this, but) would bite your hand off if you offered him Ferrer's day in and day out, metronomic consistency.

I don't think this is the first time someone here has even made this comparison, but aside from their grunts, and propensity for oversized shirts I don't really see much similar.

 

[weakera]

Good call actually

 

[Cashman]

7th all-time leader in earnings (not inflation adjusted)

Not a super meaningful stat, it must be said.

 

[BVSlam]

Yeah, I don't think it is as clear cut as people think that Ferrer was better on clay.

Not as clear cut, but I think that, like with Thiem, a big part of the reason it's that close between the surfaces is Nadal. Ferrer has won a hardcourt Masters and not a clay one, but there is a huge difference between facing Nadal in a clay court final and facing Janowicz in a Paris Masters final. And he's not the first player who got his lone big title in an underplayed Masters like Paris.

However, I'd agree that the notion that Ferrer is specifically a clay-court specialist is definitely wrong. He has reached quite a lot of HC slam quarters and semi's. I think he's definitely better on clay, but in the end his main problem is the same, no matter the surface: incredible game for beating less consistent players, but generally lacking the kind of game to threaten consistent top players like the big 3/4.

 

[Swingmaster]

Rublev or Shapo for higher ceiling? Can’t remember seeing them against each other but it’d be a blast.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

I'm not ready to hand out such a compliment.

 

[zagor]

I guess you could call them both workmanlike but their styles of play aren't really that similar.

 

[travlerajm]

What do you think improved in his game this year to improve his results so much?

The good players in the generation ahead of him started retiring.

 

[stringertom]

Rublev or Shapo for higher ceiling? Can’t remember seeing them against each other but it’d be a blast.

Shapo 2-0 h2h on NA HCs in 2019; Rublev 1-0 h2h on indoor HCs in 2020.

More upside for Russian Money.

 

[Red Rick]

Ferrer was HC Ferrer.

Ferrer inflated all his clay stats by playing SA every year. Vs top 10 and top 5 players his record is better on HC than on clay.

 

[stringertom]

Rublev is decent, but unless he actually does something in the big events, it won't matter how many 500's he wins.

This year he has done little in the big events. Yes, he reached 2 slam QF and another 4th round, but he lost rather comfortably all 3 times he got there to guys he shouldn't lose that easily to.

The USO QF loss to Medvedev was disappointing in that he was throttling his big friend before a late first set meltdown. As to losing to Tsitsi at RG QF, again the first set was winnable (5-7) and he ran on empty after that, probably due to overplaying with the crazy schedule of Hamburg the week before RG. He had beaten Tsitsipas in the final there and both struggled in five 1R RG. Tsits had it easier from there while Rublev R16 vs Fucsovics was a war in four. Tap out city.

Hindsight being 20-20, losing in straights to Zedraffe 4R AO wasn’t a bad result. Rublev was on a 11-match winning streak entering the match and Zedraffe’s poor track record at slams made the 4,4&4 loss a disappointment to me as a big fan that night. Zedraffe played well though and was just two TBs away from a final after beating Wawrinka in 4 (QF) and bowing out to Thiem in those closing TBs.

2021 will be a great opportunity to step up at three of the slams (grass is still a project). I’m hoping for one final, if not a title, out of the other three.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

I mean... isn’t Ferrer the hard court Ferrer? His performances were pretty similar across clay and hard.

Fun fact... Ferrer is 4-6 against Nadal on HC. Including 2-1 at slams.

And 2 of Nadal's wins were retirements.

 

[metsman]

You have many good opinions, but I disagree on this one. Thiem is still a better and more dangerous player than Ferrer, even if he is playing in a weaker era than Ferrer was.

Ferrer wouldn't do jack even against the older Big 3.

Think peak Ferrer could do fine against today's big 3 for sure. Was giving Fedal decent matches in 2014 and they are much slower today. Is generic Nadal at some HC event really tougher to beat than 07 USO Nadal (nadal was physically beaten down there but still could provide resistance unlike the 2011 AO match, so it's worth considering when comparing to today's slowdal)? Don't think so.

I don't expect it to be a popular opinion because it requires a really negative view of today's game, but I don't think it's far off.

 

[Tshooter]

Not a super meaningful stat, it must be said.

Not as a stat per se but very meaningful to David.

 

[Tshooter]

I guess you could call them both workmanlike but their styles of play aren't really that similar.

Ferrer is a much craftier player. I take lessons from Ruby and all he ever tells me is “hit the ball harder.”

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[BackhandDTL]

Both bums

Couldn’t care less

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Both bums

Couldn’t care less

Hello there, sir.
Great to see you, the legendary person back in action.

 

[BackhandDTL]

Hello there, sir.
Great to see you, the legendary person back in action.

Its true. PETE would send these guys home crying to their mommies.

 

[Justice Underworld]

He has more juice in his shots than Ferrer to me.