Are the young guys slowly getting closer to beating Djokovic in best of 5?

Jokervich

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
There are many posts on here saying Djokovic will rack up 30+ slams and be winning them in his 40's, but to me it looks like the young guys are steadily getting closer and closer to beating him. Zverev took him to 4 close sets in Australia and 5 sets just now at the US Open. Tsitsipas took him to 5 sets at RG. Musetti took him to 5 sets at RG. Berrettini took 1 set off him in their 3 matches this year. Even Brooksby took a set off him and was giving him a tough match for the first 2 sets. Medvedev admittedly got destroyed at the AO but it was close initially, until he had a meltdown and gave up.

Some of these were mental lapses. Others were physical fitness issues. But it looks like they are very slowly getting closer. What do you think?


edit: btw, I think Medvedev loses in 3 or 4 in the US Open final, so don't bump this thread after he loses just to rub it in. Making that prediction here right now.
 
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

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We will certainly get at least one answer to that tomorrow - if Medvedev wins the answer is a resounding yes! I sure hope so!
 
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

Guest
MiamiWeekendWarrior said:
No. Oldovic is simply getting closer to losing. The Failed Gen does not have the talent, skill, or mental fortitude to consistently beat a peak Novak. The Failed Gen will not beat Novak, Father Time will.
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and yet... Djokovic has a losing record at the USO and the FO, and a fairly even record at Wimbledon. It's only at the AO that he has dominated the field. Yes, he has had his best year at the slams in 2021 but he also lost at the Olympics and has lost more tournaments than he has won this year - and he has lost to players such as Dan Evans, Aslan Karatsev, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Alexander Zverev. He may lose to Daniil Medvedev tomorrow, we will have to wait and see who the winner is. His record in finals at the USO is 3-5, with 8 other appearances where he did not make it to the final. He would still have a losing record at the USO even if he does prevail tomorrow. It's not just time that is ticking away but it's also that the younger players are getting stronger. He has lost majors to Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal - he doesn't always win.
 
Jokervich

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
Backspin1183 said:
Yes. If they double fault a lot more in important games, they'll get there.
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But my point is that Djokovic has lost many sets in the slams this year. He's been pushed to 5 or close 4 sets quite a few times. Compare that to 2015/2016 when he was destroying everyone.
 
Kralingen

Kralingen

Talk Tennis Guru
The issue is that their window has passed. The next time a Slam comes around Djokovic will be nearly 35 and only getting older.

Even if they do break through and win eventually we're looking at wins over a guy who relies on stamina and movement at age 35. Djokovic has consummately dominated these guys, fully and undeniably. I think they will be forever derided as mugs, even when they do beat Djokovic (and it is a when, not if)

it is a little unfair, but when you look at what actually happened in the matches, hard to defend them much.
 
Jokervich

Jokervich

Hall of Fame
Kralingen said:
The issue is that their window has passed. The next time a Slam comes around Djokovic will be nearly 35 and only getting older.

Even if they do break through and win eventually we're looking at wins over a guy who relies on stamina and movement at age 35. Djokovic has consummately dominated these guys, fully and undeniably. I think they will be forever derided as mugs, even when they do beat Djokovic (and it is a when, not if)

it is a little unfair, but when you look at what actually happened in the matches, hard to defend them much.
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If you read media outside of biased forum posts though, most experts think these young guys are pretty close to beating him. If not for Zverev's slight mental lapses, he could have beaten Djokovic in both slam meetings, his peak level can match Djokovic's. Tsitsipas was equally close at RG. They are clearly not beating him, but they look to be getting closer and closer.
 
T

tudwell

G.O.A.T.
I guess the question is: how much better can Djokovic play than he did vs., say, Tsitsipas or Zverev? Neither match seemed like his highest level, but then maybe that is his highest level now. I wonder how much the pressure of the calendar slam has kept him from playing loose and free and fully confident. He’s shined when he needed to, when his back was against the wall, but he hasn’t looked like the most dominant version of Novak for most of the year (the finish at the Australian was great).

If a lot of that is because of the pressure of the calendar slam, then theoretically he should be able to loosen up and potentially play even better next year (not saying he’ll win the calendar slam again, just that when he does win, he won’t struggle as much). But if it’s more about physical decline, he’ll probably just keep getting steadily worse and eventually Next Gen will overtake him.
 
T

Texas Tennis Fan

Professional
As Zverev said in his post-match interview, Djokovic mentally is toughest on his important points. Specifically, Zverev mentioned that on most of the break points, Djokovic got his serve in as an ace or a very hard to return serve.
 
itrium84

itrium84

Hall of Fame
Jokervich said:
There are many posts on here saying Djokovic will rack up 30+ slams and be winning them in his 40's, but to me it looks like the young guys are steadily getting closer and closer to beating him. Zverev took him to 4 close sets in Australia and 5 sets just now at the US Open. Tsitsipas took him to 5 sets at RG. Musetti took him to 5 sets at RG. Berrettini took 1 set off him in their 3 matches this year. Even Brooksby took a set off him and was giving him a tough match for the first 2 sets. Medvedev admittedly got destroyed at the AO but it was close initially, until he had a meltdown and gave up.

Some of these were mental lapses. Others were physical fitness issues. But it looks like they are very slowly getting closer. What do you think?


edit: btw, I think Medvedev loses in 3 or 4 in the US Open final, so don't bump this thread after he loses just to rub it in. Making that prediction here right now.
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New3 (Med, Zed, Tsits) advanced to the same GS gameplay level this year, few more nextgens are pretty close - it's amazing set of circumstances that made Novak victorious up to this moment, he dodged so many bullets.
Nobody would be extremely surprised if Novak lost any of SF/F matches at GS tournaments this year, nobody would call it a great upset.
 
Chanwan

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Jokervich said:
If you read media outside of biased forum posts though, most experts think these young guys are pretty close to beating him. If not for Zverev's slight mental lapses, he could have beaten Djokovic in both slam meetings, his peak level can match Djokovic's. Tsitsipas was equally close at RG. They are clearly not beating him, but they look to be getting closer and closer.
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Staying with him mentally is part of what's needed to beat him. Federer outplayed Djoko for the better part of their 2019 W match and led in every single statistic but the most important one: Match points won.

To answer your question: Game wise, I do think some of them are getting closer. Mentally, they still have a mountain to climb. I've no idea who you are referring to, when you say 30+ and slams into his 40's, but I think quite a few of us expect him to win something like 23-26.
 
topher

topher

Hall of Fame
itrium84 said:
New3 (Med, Zed, Tsits) advanced to the same GS gameplay level this year, few more nextgens are pretty close - it's amazing set of circumstances that made Novak victorious up to this moment, he dodged so many bullets.
Nobody would be extremely surprised if Novak lost any of SF/F matches at GS tournaments this year, nobody would call it a great upset.
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He played a qualifier at AO SF lol, what are you smoking? If that wouldn’t be a great upset then none exists.

Nobody here with a brain would or did put money against him in any SF/F match except the Rafa match and maybe this Zverev match. It’s a fact he’s been heavily favored in every match except the one where his opponent got injured.
 
MurraysMetalHip

MurraysMetalHip

Hall of Fame
There’s getting close, and then there’s beating him. They are all some way off being able to achieve the latter. As much as I dislike the chap, there’s no denying his mental toughness and never say die attitude.
 
D

Deleted member 771911

Guest
All will be revealed tomorrow. I think the most accurate assessment can be done then as Medvedev faced Djokovic in the AO final, too.
 
Omega_7000

Omega_7000

Legend
Kralingen said:
The issue is that their window has passed. The next time a Slam comes around Djokovic will be nearly 35 and only getting older.

Even if they do break through and win eventually we're looking at wins over a guy who relies on stamina and movement at age 35. Djokovic has consummately dominated these guys, fully and undeniably. I think they will be forever derided as mugs, even when they do beat Djokovic (and it is a when, not if)

it is a little unfair, but when you look at what actually happened in the matches, hard to defend them much.
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Spot on and 100% agreed! The window to prove themselves has closed. Now it'll be more about Djokovic beating himself than the other way around
 
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jm1980

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Vamos Rafa Nadal said:
and yet... Djokovic has a losing record at the USO and the FO, and a fairly even record at Wimbledon. It's only at the AO that he has dominated the field. Yes, he has had his best year at the slams in 2021 but he also lost at the Olympics and has lost more tournaments than he has won this year - and he has lost to players such as Dan Evans, Aslan Karatsev, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Alexander Zverev. He may lose to Daniil Medvedev tomorrow, we will have to wait and see who the winner is. His record in finals at the USO is 3-5, with 8 other appearances where he did not make it to the final. He would still have a losing record at the USO even if he does prevail tomorrow. It's not just time that is ticking away but it's also that the younger players are getting stronger. He has lost majors to Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal - he doesn't always win.
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What do you mean losing record at the USO and FO? He's won 84% of his FO matches and 86% of his USO matches (87% if he wins tomorrow)
 
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

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jm1980 said:
What do you mean losing record at the USO and FO? He's won 84% of his FO matches and 86% of his USO matches (87% if he wins tomorrow)
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Losing record of winning the tournament when he gets to finals.
 
jm1980

jm1980

Talk Tennis Guru
Vamos Rafa Nadal said:
Losing record of winning the tournament when he gets to finals.
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LOL, then how in the world is his record at Wimbledon "fairly even"? He's 6-1 in Wimbledon finals

Also, it's better to make the finals than to lose in the first round (or not even play the tournament in the first place)
 
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Vamos Rafa Nadal

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jm1980 said:
LOL, then how in the world is his record at Wimbledon "fairly even"? He's 6-1 in Wimbledon finals

Also, it's better to make the finals than to lose in the first round (or not even play the tournament in the first place)
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Are you really that dense? I am writing specifically about the US OPEN!!!! 3-5 in finals at the US OPEN!!!
 
ibbi

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
I ain't so sure it's them getting close to him, and not him getting close to them, but the gap is certainly closing. Of course that appeared to be the case in 2020 between the Thiem match in Australia and Tsitsipas one at Roland Garros, and he's done not bad since then, so... :-D
 
V

Vamos Rafa Nadal

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jm1980 said:
So again, in what world is 6-1 "fairly even"?
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tbh I was thinking about his overall record there at Wimbledon and not his finals record. You are correct that his finals record is a strong one at Wimbledon, I am correct that it is a fairly even one overall.
 
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Vamos Rafa Nadal

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Hitman said:
Good heavens, you are going off the deep end.

I like the happy cheerful version of you. Can we have that version back please.
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The happy cheerful version of me will be watching the women's final in an hour's time!

I am also hoping I will enjoy Laver Cup and getting to see some of my favorite players live at that expo event later this month!
 
BeatlesFan

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Vamos Rafa Nadal said:
Djokovic has a losing record at the USO and the FO, and a fairly even record at Wimbledon.
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Everyone at RG has a losing record since 2005 and we can all guess the reason why:

IdealisticPoliticalBittern-size_restricted.gif


No one on the planet looks at tennis the way you're describing it. Novak has a "fairly even record at Wimbledon?" He's won it 6 times. He's the only guy who defeated Rafa twice at RG. He's underachieved at the USO but tomorrow he'll almost certainly have won it 4 times. The days of Fedal fans spinning the GOAT debate in their favor have ended, accept it graciously and move on.
 
M

MiamiWeekendWarrior

Hall of Fame
Vamos Rafa Nadal said:
Are you really that dense? I am writing specifically about the US OPEN!!!! 3-5 in finals at the US OPEN!!!
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Lol @ you calling anyone dense. You yourself named the players he lost to. They are all part of the Big 4 + Stan, who himself had a pretty amazing run for a couple of years before injuries got in his way. For a time, Novak, Fed, Nadal, Murray, and Stan were dominating the game. Injuries took Murray and Stan out, age and injuries took Fed and Nadal out, old age is catching up to Novak, and despite him getting old, the Failed Gen has been unable to dethrone him.

As someone else pointed out, the Failed Gen isn't getting closer to beating him, he is simply getting closer to losing to them.
 
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