Firstly, Joker has kept himself in incredible shape so he should be commended for his dedication towards his craft. Guys like Borg and Lendl set the standards as far as preparation goes and I think even among the Big 3 Joker has taken it to a new level. The dude let a square of chocolate melt on his tongue and that’s the last tasty thing he’s had in over a decade. He’s had nothing but berries and twigs since.
Secondly there’s the elephant in the room that is the opposition or in this field’s case lack thereof. We’ve had 3 successive generations who have produced a single ATG level talent in 17 years (more on him later). The #LostGen is appropriately named given that an entire generation produced a single 1x schlem winner who’s an absolute shadow of himself post injury R.I.P. Timmy’s wrist.
The following generation hasn’t faired much better (though they have done better in the big BO3 events courtesy of the Big 3 cutting down their schedules to focus on the schlems). The Mad Lad, Zedrot, Citybus, and Bweh have either all regressed or plateaued this year. Citybus has taken several steps back since peaking in 2021 and Zedrot hasn’t been the same since his ankle injury last year (not that he made a big impact at the schlems to begin with).
The Mad Lad had a great first half of the season in non-schlem events, but he’s added virtually nothing to his game since his breakout year in 2019. Mentally he hasn’t been the same since RAFA took his soul in the 2022 AO F. His ROS position has become an absolute liability against the top players and he has not made any adjustments to solve this issue. Joker, Tiny Carl, and the Sinner have all more or less completely figured him out now. Bweh is a perennial punching bag for everyone in the top 10. He’s a 500 vulture filler who can occasionally make a schlem QF but can go no further than that.
Now we’ve arrived at the #DiamondGen consisting of: the Sinner, Tiny Carl, and the Danish Brat. The Sinner finally won his first MS1000 of his career this year, granted his draw had to fall apart to laughable proportions. He looked great in the YEC up until the F, but even if he won there I wouldn’t be convinced it would translate into schlem success because that has been the case for all these young players who won the YEC sans Mad Lad who played probably the worst Joker in any GS F. Speaking of the schlems, the Sinner like the Mad Lad also plateaued (or worse took a small step backwards) at the schlems. His serve has improved a lot this year, but given his meek performance in the YEC F he still lacks the mental toughness to be a factor in the BO5 format.
The Danish Brat was…there I guess. I think he won a title compared to 3 last year. His schlem results did improve replicating his RG results from last year and making the Wimby QF this year. But as of right now his serve isn’t good enough and his FH is an absolute liability. Combine that with his lack of stamina and he’s not winning a schlem next year. The talent and mentality is there since he’s the only one yet to wet himself whenever he plays Joker.
Lastly, we have Tiny Carl who’s by far the toughest challenger the current tour has to offer. While he has improved this year compared to his very successful 2022 campaign, it wasn’t this massive jump that many people (myself included) were expecting. Like PETE said, any year you win a slam is a success, but it definitely wasn’t as much of a success as it could have/should have been. While his serve has improved and he adjusted to grass incredibly well, he’s now had back to back years where his body and form have fallen off a cliff post-2-1 Open, buds. This year he fell off even earlier after he won Wimby. Now it was amazing that he won Queens and Wimby back to back after having one of the worst physical/mental collapses in recent memory. But frankly he did benefit from a Joker who was incredibly mediocre to straight up bad in large chunks of the match. He still needs to work on his serve since he has to work far too hard to hold against the best returners in the world. He generates way too many BPs to not break serve as often as he should. Probably his two biggest concerns going into the offseason are working on his shot selection and shot tolerance. Physically this is probably the best he’ll ever be. I don’t see him getting any faster/improving his movement beyond where it’s at now. Any physical improvement is going to come down to stamina which while he is in good shape he did cramp up not once, not twice, but thrice in important matches this year they ultimately cost him 3 big titles.
