weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
Incorrect.
Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Nadal [3] - WIM 2019 SF
- Thread starter falstaff78
- Start date
Incorrect.
abmk
Bionic Poster
your "incorrect" is incorrect.
Pheasant
Legend
Thanks for the great stats, @falstaff78
Logically, Nadal should be favored. The objective pick would be Nadal in 4 sets. However, we fans shouldn't be objective. We need to lead with our faith. Thus, my subjective pick is Federer in 5.
Logically, Nadal should be favored. The objective pick would be Nadal in 4 sets. However, we fans shouldn't be objective. We need to lead with our faith. Thus, my subjective pick is Federer in 5.
weakera
Talk Tennis Guru
No
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Mind games
abmk
Bionic Poster
your "no" is incorrect.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Mind games
Seriously, I think this match is very close to 50/50. Slow grass favours Nadal I suppose, but it isn't close to clay either. If both play at about the same level I actually think Federer is more likely to win, but I think Nadal is more likely to play at a higher level.
chimneysweep
Semi-Pro
Even though I like Nadal more than Federer, I hope Federer wins since I am scarred now after watching his last couple matches Nadal is going to beat Djokovic in the final if he makes it.
Probably Nadal in 4 though.
Probably Nadal in 4 though.
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
Nadal is going to beat Djokovic in the final? As much as I would like that to happen, the chances are too small.
chimneysweep
Semi-Pro
I dont feel that way, and Djokovic is my favorite right now. The way Nadal looks, I think Djokovic will have a hard time beating him. He looks much stronger than last year when Djokovic barely beat him, and Djokovic did not look great vs Goffin despite the score vs an opponent who really cant hurt him. So I hope Federer takes Nadal out for Djokovic, although I do not think he will.
Sysyphus
Talk Tennis Guru
you are readily becoming the Dwight Schrute of TTW, keep it up.
potential new avatar for ya
TheFifthSet
Legend
Federer in 3.
Nadal15thslam
Hall of Fame
Rafa in 4 sets against Roger and in 5 against Novak in the final. I'll quote this if it happens
chimneysweep
Semi-Pro
Seriously, I think this match is very close to 50/50. Slow grass favours Nadal I suppose, but it isn't close to clay either. If both play at about the same level I actually think Federer is more likely to win, but I think Nadal is more likely to play at a higher level.
The fact Serena is in the final and the clear favorite shows some are going overboard with the "like clay" comment. I doubt she can make it past the 3rd or 4th round of the French ever again. Along that if the grass were really like clay, hardly anyone would really think Federer had a serious chance.
DSH
Talk Tennis Guru
TheFifthSet
Legend
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
Flashscores is reporting distance run this year. Then my excel simply divides by the number of points.
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
You should never ever laugh at anyone posting any stats (apart from Lew), and especially not at Falstaff who should charge you a fee just for allowing you to read his threads.
Not even 3-4 days ago you were claiming:
1) that Schwartzmann has a decent service hold with 71% service games won
2) that a 7-slam champion Wilander had the same percentage (lol) and therefore this is proof that Diego's service game is excellent (mega lol)
You are lucky the mods didn't revoke your posting priviliges. I mean there has to be a bar, even if it's one inch from the absolute rock bottom - and you've gone underground
Thanks for the defence. I wish the guy would just put me on ignore so he wouldn't see the "stats" I post. But since he so desperately reads all my stuff and remembers (while misinterpreting) random comments months after the fact, I guess I'll have to stop wishing and put him on ignore.
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
Cheers sir.
Dunno about this one. All intuition is out the window frankly - been so long since they played grass. The french open match has about as much relevance as a game of backgammon, given conditions.
These stats for whatever they are worth suggest some sort of parity. I'm just confused man.
Probably Nadal with a slight edge. He's winning the poll by about the same margin the bookmakers are giving him, by the way.
Meles
Bionic Poster
2nd serve and return numbers are highly movement related, but that is less so on grass. I'll also point out that against RBA Djokovic had the temerity to unleash some of his biggest 2nd serves of his career, saw 119 mph ace under the pump.
Still this is not Beckeresque 2nd serving from Nole, 2nd serve points won on grass:
2011 59.0%
2014 58.8%
2015 63.6%
2018 55.4%
Roddick had superlative 2nd serve numbers on most surfaces for his career which shows that a 2nd tier mover can still have top of the heap 2nd serve numbers due to serve and not movement. This is the case with Federer now for sure and we see that Djokovic's great 2nd serve numbers on grass were all due to the Becker 2nd serve game. If Djoko is under pressure like with RBA look for some big 2nd serves, but these could also turn into double faults with some serious egg on the face.
The 2nd serve number decline for Nole does not indicate serious movement decline because his return numbers were peak last year. 2011 was 41.0%, 2018 42.0% return points won (stunningly high on grass), and 2014-2015 ~38%. This year is a stunning 46% so far, but Federe at 44% is outrageously high and shows we have very firm, true bouncing courts this year, and the higher bounce makes them perhaps the slowest to date.
Djokovic 2.0 is all about the first serve as you know so the dynamic of this peak Djoko shot versus Fed's formidable first return will be very important.
Note: Federe's new backhand breathed tremendous life into his career. It jumped both his 2nd return and 2nd serve numbers on all surfaces compensating for at least five years worth of movement decline that is normal for such players. Adapterer appears to have Darwin on his side these days, continuing to evolve with the game and it makes it pretty clear if he'd had stiffer competition in his prime he just would have found a similar way to up his game much earlier, Arrogant erer tendencies might have had him reeling for a time faced with peak Nole during the Vacuum Era of 2003-2007+, but he would have adapted eventually. GOATLEDON almost over and the final upon us.
xFedal
Legend
2nd serve at 47% today.....but CLUTCHOVIC SHOWED UP...... BEATEN IN EVERY STAT EXCEPT THE IMPORTANT ONES.2nd serve and return numbers are highly movement related, but that is less so on grass. I'll also point out that against RBA Djokovic had the temerity to unleash some of his biggest 2nd serves of his career, saw 119 mph ace under the pump.
Still this is not Beckeresque 2nd serving from Nole, 2nd serve points won on grass:
2011 59.0%
2014 58.8%
2015 63.6%
2018 55.4%
Roddick had superlative 2nd serve numbers on most surfaces for his career which shows that a 2nd tier mover can still have top of the heap 2nd serve numbers due to serve and not movement. This is the case with Federer now for sure and we see that Djokovic's great 2nd serve numbers on grass were all due to the Becker 2nd serve game. If Djoko is under pressure like with RBA look for some big 2nd serves, but these could also turn into double faults with some serious egg on the face.
The 2nd serve number decline for Nole does not indicate serious movement decline because his return numbers were peak last year. 2011 was 41.0%, 2018 42.0% return points won (stunningly high on grass), and 2014-2015 ~38%. This year is a stunning 46% so far, but Federe at 44% is outrageously high and shows we have very firm, true bouncing courts this year, and the higher bounce makes them perhaps the slowest to date.
Djokovic 2.0 is all about the first serve as you know so the dynamic of this peak Djoko shot versus Fed's formidable first return will be very important.
Note: Federe's new backhand breathed tremendous life into his career. It jumped both his 2nd return and 2nd serve numbers on all surfaces compensating for at least five years worth of movement decline that is normal for such players. Adapterer appears to have Darwin on his side these days, continuing to evolve with the game and it makes it pretty clear if he'd had stiffer competition in his prime he just would have found a similar way to up his game much earlier, Arrogant erer tendencies might have had him reeling for a time faced with peak Nole during the Vacuum Era of 2003-2007+, but he would have adapted eventually. GOATLEDON almost over and the final upon us.
Meles
Bionic Poster
It really was quite the chess match. When Djoko's first serve numbers fell off a cliff in the 2nd set I thought he was toast.
The match was incredibly close. Federer could not dial it in for the breakers and when he was serving for sets. He wanted to go back to the grinder/pusher playbook like at the 2015 US Open final and that cost him in the first set. Switched gears for the third set breaker and way too aggressive. Fed way too pushy trying to serve out the match and the 2nd set the first time as well. Finally couldn't make up his mind in the end and just poor shot selection like the missed half-volley trying to wrong foot Djokovic. Djokovic just got him under enough pressure for some poor decisions. Just made him tight.
Djoko was very disciplined in this match. He could have gone for more bigger 2nd serves, but wisely dialed it back as he just was not up to that kind of pressure and really reviving the Becker 2nd serve game probably not possible with his new serve motion. Djoko also could have tried to dial in Peakovic 2015 baseline domination mode in this match and he fiddled with it some trying to make a comeback in the 2nd, but went squarely back to Djoko 2.0 pusher mode that's got him 4 of the last 5 slams.
Federerly admirably laid off slicing too many backhands and pushing on his own, but when the chips were down he cracked just enough. Really quite a match.
The stats coming into SFs showed Federe with more than a chance to take this title and oh so close.
xFedal
Legend
Below average Djokovic just beat high quality playing Fed.....It really was quite the chess match. When Djoko's first serve numbers fell off a cliff in the 2nd set I thought he was toast.
The match was incredibly close. Federer could not dial it in for the breakers and when he was serving for sets. He wanted to go back to the grinder/pusher playbook like at the 2015 US Open final and that cost him in the first set. Switched gears for the third set breaker and way too aggressive. Fed way too pushy trying to serve out the match and the 2nd set the first time as well. Finally couldn't make up his mind in the end and just poor shot selection like the missed half-volley trying to wrong foot Djokovic. Djokovic just got him under enough pressure for some poor decisions. Just made him tight.
Djoko was very disciplined in this match. He could have gone for more bigger 2nd serves, but wisely dialed it back as he just was not up to that kind of pressure and really reviving the Becker 2nd serve game probably not possible with his new serve motion. Djoko also could have tried to dial in Peakovic 2015 baseline domination mode in this match and he fiddled with it some trying to make a comeback in the 2nd, but went squarely back to Djoko 2.0 pusher mode that's got him 4 of the last 5 slams.
Federerly admirably laid off slicing too many backhands and pushing on his own, but when the chips were down he cracked just enough. Really quite a match.
The stats coming into SFs showed Federe with more than a chance to take this title and oh so close.
Meles
Bionic Poster
LOL. Hmmm didn't see anything remotely below average about him in this match and played betterer than last year at Wimby. The 2nd serve numbers show that part of his game has been lesserer in his little run, but better first serving makes him very formidable especially in slams. I'm not sure how you can really call his play below average.
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