Djokovic: If He Wins 2016 CYGS, Wimbledon 2018 = 18th Major

[sjwoo]

I wrote a pretty extensive post in reply to a thread that was unfortunately deleted, so I'll try to reconstruct what I wrote before, plus some additional stuff...

First, a short introduction. I've been watching tennis for about 30 years. McEnroe past his prime, Edberg, Lendl, Becker, et al., was when I started enjoying the sport. I sort of lost sight of it during the Sampras/Agassi era, then came back to it from Hewitt onward. So I've seen a decent amount of tennis though nowhere near some of you on the board, obviously. I saw enough of the Fed era to know dominance, though dominance with an Achilles heel. Fed, as graceful and amazing as he has been, is not without one -- his backhand. It's a shot that's been constantly exploited by the likes of Nadal and Djokovic, and at times, Murray. Nadal had his amazing 2 years of greatness but his health has always been his doom, and sad to say, he's really doomed now. Murray is, as we all know, a poor man's Djokovic and will never be able to summon the aggression needed to beat the likes of Novak; once a counterpuncher, always a counterpuncher. Wawrinka is maddeningly inconsistent. Del Potro and Cilic aren't winning more majors.

Iv'e never seen a player more complete than Djokovic v.2015-2016, pure and simple. Could his overheads be better? Yeah, but that's really not much of a weakness. Nobody is going to exploit that weakness of his and lob 50 shots in a match, 49 of which he would smash for winners. His serve has become a force, and his mind is pretty rock solid now. We'll see how sound it is with RG 2016 -- if he fails again, that's gonna put a serious dent in my prediction here, especially if he fails idiotically like against Nadal in 2014.

But I think he'll do it. The way I see it, from now until Wimbledon 2018, Djokovic gets 17 majors. Unless, of course, he gets hurt. But that's about it, because the field is mighty thin.

Wimby 2015 - Djokovic (9)
USO 2015- Djokovic (10)
Aus 2016 - Djokovic (11)
RG 2016 - Djokovic (12)
Wimby 2016 - Djokovic (13)
USO 2016- Djokovic (14)
Aus 2017- Djokovic (15) (yes, this means he'll have won 7 majors IN A ROW -- who the hell is gonna stop him?)
RG 2017- ?
Wimby 2017- Raonic
USO 2017- Djokovic (16)
Aus 2018- Djokovic (17)
RG 2018- ?
Wimby 2018- Djokovic (18) (age: 31 years and ~2 months)

Looking at the field, that's really the only logical conclusion to draw. Of the men in top 20, who can win a major in the next 2.5 years? We're talking 10 tournaments:

Murray - no
Fed - no -- 36 years old by 2018
Stan - no -- 33 years old by 2018
Nadal - no -- speaking as a Nadal fan, I know he's done -- there's no way he's winning any more majors
Ferrer - no
Nishikori - maybe -- just too injury prone -- maybe 1?
Berdych - no -- 32 years old by 2018
Tsonga - no -- 32 years old by 2018
Gasquet - no
Raonic- 1 or 2 Wimblys? He got to the semis in 2014 and I can see him getting to the finals this year
Isner - no
Anderson - no
SImon - no
Goffin - maybe?
Monfils - no
Bautista Agut - no
Thiem - maybe?
Tomic - no

By 2018, the most promising of the young guns will be, age wise:

Coric - 21
Chung - 21
Rubin - 21
Fritz - 20
Opelka - 20

Can you honestly see any of those guys even getting to the semis? I can't.

So if the Reign of Novak doesn't suit you, pray for him rolling on his ankle, straining his back, getting food poisoning, contracting mono, etc.

Edit: Neglected to mention Kyrgios and Kokkinakis, but I'm afraid I can't see them winning any majors in the next 2.5 years, either.

 

[metsman]

You've been watching tennis for 30 years and cannot come up with an actual weakness in Djokovic's game? Heck if you were paying attention during 2012-2014 you could come up with weaknesses.

But whatever...the rest of your post may unfortunately be correct.

 

[OhYes]

I wrote a pretty extensive post in reply to a thread that was unfortunately deleted, so I'll try to reconstruct what I wrote before, plus some additional stuff...

First, a short introduction. I've been watching tennis for about 30 years. McEnroe past his prime, Edberg, Lendl, Becker, et al., was when I started enjoying the sport. I sort of lost sight of it during the Sampras/Agassi era, then came back to it from Hewitt onward. So I've seen a decent amount of tennis though nowhere near some of you on the board, obviously. I saw enough of the Fed era to know dominance, though dominance with an Achilles heel. Fed, as graceful and amazing as he has been, is not without one -- his backhand. It's a shot that's been constantly exploited by the likes of Nadal and Djokovic, and at times, Murray. Nadal had his amazing 2 years of greatness but his health has always been his doom, and sad to say, he's really doomed now. Murray is, as we all know, a poor man's Djokovic and will never be able to summon the aggression needed to beat the likes of Novak; once a counterpuncher, always a counterpuncher. Wawrinka is maddeningly inconsistent. Del Potro and Cilic aren't winning more majors.

Iv'e never seen a player more complete than Djokovic v.2015-2016, pure and simple. Could his overheads be better? Yeah, but that's really not much of a weakness. Nobody is going to exploit that weakness of his and lob 50 shots in a match, 49 of which he would smash for winners. His serve has become a force, and his mind is pretty rock solid now. We'll see how sound it is with RG 2016 -- if he fails again, that's gonna put a serious dent in my prediction here, especially if he fails idiotically like against Nadal in 2014.

But I think he'll do it. The way I see it, from now until Wimbledon 2018, Djokovic gets 17 majors. Unless, of course, he gets hurt. But that's about it, because the field is mighty thin.

Wimby 2015 - Djokovic (9)
USO 2015- Djokovic (10)
Aus 2016 - Djokovic (11)
RG 2016 - Djokovic (12)
Wimby 2016 - Djokovic (13)
USO 2016- Djokovic (14)
Aus 2017- Djokovic (15) (yes, this means he'll have won 7 majors IN A ROW -- who the hell is gonna stop him?)
RG 2017- ?
Wimby 2017- Raonic
USO 2017- Djokovic (16)
Aus 2018- Djokovic (17)
RG 2018- ?
Wimby 2018- Djokovic (18) (age: 30 years and ~2 months)

Looking at the field, that's really the only logical conclusion to draw. Of the men in top 20, who can win a major in the next 2.5 years? We're talking 10 tournaments:

Murray - no
Fed - no -- 36 years old by 2018
Stan - no -- 32 years old by 2018
Nadal - no -- speaking as a Nadal fan, I know he's done -- there's no way he's winning any more majors
Ferrer - no
Nishikori - maybe -- just too injury prone -- maybe 1?
Berdych - no -- 32 years old by 2018
Tsonga - no -- 32 years old by 2018
Gasquet - no
Raonic- 1 or 2 Wimblys? He got to the semis in 2014 and I can see him getting to the finals this year
Isner - no
Anderson - no
SImon - no
Goffin - maybe?
Monfils - no
Bautista Agut - no
Thiem - maybe?
Tomic - no

By 2018, the most promising of the young guns will be, age wise:

Coric - 21
Chung - 21
Rubin - 21
Fritz - 20
Opelka - 20

Can you honestly see any of those guys even getting to the semis? I can't.

So if the Reign of Novak doesn't suit you, pray for him rolling on his ankle, straining his back, getting food poisoning, contracting mono, etc.

Edit: Neglected to mention Kyrgios and Kokkinakis, but I'm afraid I can't see them winning any majors in the next 2.5 years, either.

You didn't count external factors. What happened in last 3 slams is very disgraceful behavior from crowd and organizers of tournament, maybe even some journalists, which is very telling - someone is really having hard time with Djokovic winning slams and I'm not talking about TW Fed fans.

 

[sjwoo]

You've been watching tennis for 30 years and cannot come up with an actual weakness in Djokovic's game? Heck if you were paying attention during 2012-2014 you could come up with weaknesses.

But whatever...the rest of your post may unfortunately be correct.

Novak of 2015-2016 so far is the one I'm referring to...lights out. Wawrinka hit through him at RG 2015, so that's still a possibility that someone will step up, but I just don't see it. But then again, who thought Wawrinka would win RG last year? Who thought Kerber had a chance against Serena in her first slam final? Anything can happen, which is why we watch.

I'm all for parity in every sport, including tennis, so I'd love to have others taking some slams, but it's been a pretty steadfast oligarchy for about 15 years now.

 

[metsman]

Novak of 2015-2016 so far is the one I'm referring to...lights out. Wawrinka hit through him at RG 2015, so that's still a possibility that someone will step up, but I just don't see it. But then again, who thought Wawrinka would win RG last year? Who thought Kerber had a chance against Serena in her first slam final? Anything can happen, which is why we watch.

I'm all for parity in every sport, including tennis, so I'd love to have others taking some slams, but it's been a pretty steadfast oligarchy for about 15 years now.

Well of course he looks lights out. As you said in your post very extensively, there is no one to challenge him and exploit on his weakness and the courts aren't quick enough for people to luck into it either. I simply do not get how people can watch the 3 wins Fed had over Djoker last year and say he has no weaknesses....

 

[sjwoo]

You didn't count external factors. What happened in last 3 slams is very disgraceful behavior from crowd and organizers of tournament, maybe even some journalists, which is very telling - someone is really having hard time with Djokovic winning slams and I'm not talking about TW Fed fans.

I couldn't agree with you more. I'm neither a fan nor hater of Novak, but the way the crowd goes against him at these tournaments is really kind of shameful. I guess people really enjoyed the Fed-Nadal rivalry more than anything else in the recent past -- I certainly was a fan of their matchup, their contrast in styles -- but I can't imagine booing a player because he double faulted, which is the kind of behavior we're seeing now from the crowd.

 

[sjwoo]

Well of course he looks lights out. As you said in your post very extensively, there is no one to challenge him and exploit on his weakness and the courts aren't quick enough for people to luck into it either. I simply do not get how people can watch the 3 wins Fed had over Djoker last year and say he has no weaknesses....

I think of the 3 wins -- Dubai, Cincy, WTF RR, the RR was Fed's most impressive. But of course, when push came to shove, Djokovic did win WTF in the end. And Fed certainly pushed him in both Wimbledon and USO. Fed is still Djokovic's most consistent challenge, no doubt, but I think it's clear the days of Fed winning a best of five from Novak are gone. You have to go back to Wimbledon 2012 to see the last grand slam Fed win over Djokovic...

 

[Steve0904]

I highly doubt he'll win the CYGS (like 1% chance) so the whole thread premise is pretty far "out there" in the first place. I think we should be concentrating on Djokovic winning RG before he wins the whole calendar year full of grand slams.

Start there because he doesn't have a RG trophy yet.

 

[Calvin27]

Generally agree but some factors to consider:

- The biggie is injury. You saw what it did to Nadal and Joker is better conditioned, but doesn't mean he is immune.
- Wawrinka has both the mental edge and tools to beat him.
- I still have faith in Fed for at least 1 slam.

But yeah as much of a Fed fan as I am, I think he will take the record for slams.

 

[CYGS]

I highly doubt he'll win the CYGS (like 1% chance) so the whole thread premise is pretty far "out there" in the first place. I think we should be concentrating on Djokovic winning RG before he wins the whole calendar year full of grand slams.

Start there because he doesn't have a RG trophy yet.

Agreed. One slam at a time.

 

[uscwang]

I wrote a pretty extensive post in reply to a thread that was unfortunately deleted, so I'll try to reconstruct what I wrote before, plus some additional stuff...

First, a short introduction. I've been watching tennis for about 30 years. McEnroe past his prime, Edberg, Lendl, Becker, et al., was when I started enjoying the sport. I sort of lost sight of it during the Sampras/Agassi era, then came back to it from Hewitt onward. So I've seen a decent amount of tennis though nowhere near some of you on the board, obviously. I saw enough of the Fed era to know dominance, though dominance with an Achilles heel. Fed, as graceful and amazing as he has been, is not without one -- his backhand. It's a shot that's been constantly exploited by the likes of Nadal and Djokovic, and at times, Murray. Nadal had his amazing 2 years of greatness but his health has always been his doom, and sad to say, he's really doomed now. Murray is, as we all know, a poor man's Djokovic and will never be able to summon the aggression needed to beat the likes of Novak; once a counterpuncher, always a counterpuncher. Wawrinka is maddeningly inconsistent. Del Potro and Cilic aren't winning more majors.

Iv'e never seen a player more complete than Djokovic v.2015-2016, pure and simple. Could his overheads be better? Yeah, but that's really not much of a weakness. Nobody is going to exploit that weakness of his and lob 50 shots in a match, 49 of which he would smash for winners. His serve has become a force, and his mind is pretty rock solid now. We'll see how sound it is with RG 2016 -- if he fails again, that's gonna put a serious dent in my prediction here, especially if he fails idiotically like against Nadal in 2014.

But I think he'll do it. The way I see it, from now until Wimbledon 2018, Djokovic gets 17 majors. Unless, of course, he gets hurt. But that's about it, because the field is mighty thin.

Wimby 2015 - Djokovic (9)
USO 2015- Djokovic (10)
Aus 2016 - Djokovic (11)
RG 2016 - Djokovic (12)
Wimby 2016 - Djokovic (13)
USO 2016- Djokovic (14)
Aus 2017- Djokovic (15) (yes, this means he'll have won 7 majors IN A ROW -- who the hell is gonna stop him?)
RG 2017- ?
Wimby 2017- Raonic
USO 2017- Djokovic (16)
Aus 2018- Djokovic (17)
RG 2018- ?
Wimby 2018- Djokovic (18) (age: 30 years and ~2 months)

Looking at the field, that's really the only logical conclusion to draw. Of the men in top 20, who can win a major in the next 2.5 years? We're talking 10 tournaments:

Murray - no
Fed - no -- 36 years old by 2018
Stan - no -- 32 years old by 2018
Nadal - no -- speaking as a Nadal fan, I know he's done -- there's no way he's winning any more majors
Ferrer - no
Nishikori - maybe -- just too injury prone -- maybe 1?
Berdych - no -- 32 years old by 2018
Tsonga - no -- 32 years old by 2018
Gasquet - no
Raonic- 1 or 2 Wimblys? He got to the semis in 2014 and I can see him getting to the finals this year
Isner - no
Anderson - no
SImon - no
Goffin - maybe?
Monfils - no
Bautista Agut - no
Thiem - maybe?
Tomic - no

By 2018, the most promising of the young guns will be, age wise:

Coric - 21
Chung - 21
Rubin - 21
Fritz - 20
Opelka - 20

Can you honestly see any of those guys even getting to the semis? I can't.

So if the Reign of Novak doesn't suit you, pray for him rolling on his ankle, straining his back, getting food poisoning, contracting mono, etc.

Edit: Neglected to mention Kyrgios and Kokkinakis, but I'm afraid I can't see them winning any majors in the next 2.5 years, either.

In the next 10 GS, I felt Murray could win 2 (WB or USO), Raonic 1 (WB or USO), Stan 1 (anywhere), Thiem/Kyrgios/Nishikori/Fed 1.
Novak could win 2/2 AO, 1/3 FO, 1/3 WB, 1/2 USO or better.