Is Rublev the Official Gatekeeper of this Era?

[Krish872007]

10 Slam QFs now with clear consistency
Beats pretty much whoever he is supposed to beat and promptly loses to any top 4 player

Has he completely taken over that mantle from Ferrer? Will he be key to securing additional Slams for Sinner, Alcaraz and Co for the next 5-10 years?

There was talk of Thiem being the Gatekeeper in late 2010s but his body hasn't held up. And he has quite a few wins against the Big 3 - Rublev seems to be the real deal here

 

[MichaelNadal]

#FerrerAF

 

[NoleFam]

Maybe not because Ferrer knew how to make a Slam SF.

 

[No_Kwan_Do]

If someone like Cahill had gotten a hold of Rublev 3-4 years ago, I think he'd have made a few slam SF and Fs by now.

The guy is the very definition of someone that hit a ceiling at 23, got too comfortable with his environment and just hasn't improved or made any notable adjustments to his game since. Whether it be through choice or lack of adaptability. He's still essentially just a forehand and that isn't good enough to beat the best at major events.

 

[BauerAlmeida]

Maybe not because Ferrer knew how to make a Slam SF.

Yup, but he had far more time. Rublev is still young, Ferrer until he was 29 had only made one SF, and had only reached the QF three other times. Only then did he become consistent at slams and reached QF or more 10 consecutive times.

Rublev should reach a SF eventually, although he won't achieved what Ferrer did overall.

 

[Pheasant]

I'm not sure whom we'd compare to Rublev. At least Ferrer played in 6 slam semis and a slam final. Rublev has never dreamed of getting that far. However, maybe Rublev will become the next Ferrer. Ferrer didn't really peak until he was nearly 30.

Can Rublev catch Ferrer results-wise? I think that he can. But as for now, Rublev has put in some terrible efforts in slam quarters. Let's take a look:

Rublev's slam quarters:
2017 USO: beaten by Nadal in straights
2020 USO: beaten by Medvedev in straights
2020 FO: beaten by Tsitspas in straights
2021 AO: beaten by Medvedev in straights
2022 FO: Lost to #20 Cilici in 5 sets
2022 USO: lost to #26 Tiafoe in straights
2023 AO: lost to Djoker in straights
2023 WI: lost ot Djoker in 4 sets
2023 USO: lost to MEdeved in straight sets
2024 AO: lost to Sinner in straight sets.

That's an 0-10 record while winning only a total of 3 sets. He lost 8 of those in straight sets, including 6 of those to non-Big 3 players.

 

[socallefty]

If someone like Cahill had gotten a hold of Rublev 3-4 years ago, I think he'd have made a few slam SF and Fs by now.

Rublev and Fritz are the worst movers in the top 10 - worse than Zverev, Hurkacz and way slower than the rest. That limits their ceiling as it is a fast sport these days.

 

[Dominic & Andrey]

Dude just sh*ts himself in every QF he plays.

 

[Terenigma]

That's an 0-10 record while winning only a total of 3 sets. He lost 8 of those in straight sets, including 6 of those to non-Big 3 players.

That's an extremely negative way to look at it. Look at the players included in that list, Tiafoe is quite frankly the only one that might raise an eyebrow but that was the year he took Alcaraz to 5 and was in incredibly good form. Nothing about any of those losses is shameful, it's simply players that are a step above him. He's been incredibly consistent outside of that so yeah, he's the new gatekeeper sadly.

 

[Krish872007]

I'm not sure whom we'd compare to Rublev. At least Ferrer played in 6 slam semis and a slam final. Rublev has never dreamed of getting that far. However, maybe Rublev will become the next Ferrer. Ferrer didn't really peak until he was nearly 30.

Can Rublev catch Ferrer results-wise? I think that he can. But as for now, Rublev has put in some terrible efforts in slam quarters. Let's take a look:

Rublev's slam quarters:
2017 USO: beaten by Nadal in straights
2020 USO: beaten by Medvedev in straights
2020 FO: beaten by Tsitspas in straights
2021 AO: beaten by Medvedev in straights
2022 FO: Lost to #20 Cilici in 5 sets
2022 USO: lost to #26 Tiafoe in straights
2023 AO: lost to Djoker in straights
2023 WI: lost ot Djoker in 4 sets
2023 USO: lost to MEdeved in straight sets
2024 AO: lost to Sinner in straight sets.

That's an 0-10 record while winning only a total of 3 sets. He lost 8 of those in straight sets, including 6 of those to non-Big 3 players.

I'm sure a draw or two will open up down the line and move him into a SF or Final

 

[InsideOut900]

If someone like Cahill had gotten a hold of Rublev 3-4 years ago, I think he'd have made a few slam SF and Fs by now.

The guy is the very definition of someone that hit a ceiling at 23, got too comfortable with his environment and just hasn't improved or made any notable adjustments to his game since. Whether it be through choice or lack of adaptability. He's still essentially just a forehand and that isn't good enough to beat the best at major events.

Rublev improved his BH in the last year and his serve is also more powerful. But his mental game is still in the gutter and he tends to have frequent meltdowns against the top players.

 

[Pheasant]

I'm sure a draw or two will open up down the line and move him into a SF or Final

I agree. I also think that he isn't quite done improving yet. So I do think that he can get to Ferrer's level one day.

 

[Purestriker]

Rublev and Fritz are the worst movers in the top 10 - worse than Zverev, Hurkacz and way slower than the rest. That limits their ceiling as it is a fast sport these days.

They are also both head cases and emotional train wrecks. They have to find a way to manage their emotions in the big moments.

 

[NoleFam]

Yup, but he had far more time. Rublev is still young, Ferrer until he was 29 had only made one SF, and had only reached the QF three other times. Only then did he become consistent at slams and reached QF or more 10 consecutive times.

Rublev should reach a SF eventually, although he won't achieved what Ferrer did overall.

Yea that's a good point. Rublev is only 26.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

 

[neytron]

Yea that's a good point. Rublev is only 26.

This seems like a big age for a tennis player, but Rublev still seems like a child. He needs to grow up.

 

[heavyD]

Rublev improved his BH in the last year and his serve is also more powerful. But his mental game is still in the gutter and he tends to have frequent meltdowns against the top players.

Yeah I was going to say that he's actually improved his serve and I believe he's trying to mix things up and come to the net more when opportunity is presented. There's something to be said for how consistent he is when it comes to beating players ranked below him. For him to advance into a semifinal it's probably going to require a draw opening up for him and him having his absolute best day vs a guy like Medvedev not having his best day.

 

[mike danny]

Yeah I was going to say that he's actually improved his serve and I believe he's trying to mix things up and come to the net more when opportunity is presented. There's something to be said for how consistent he is when it comes to beating players ranked below him. For him to advance into a semifinal it's probably going to require a draw opening up for him and him having his absolute best day vs a guy like Medvedev not having his best day.

Nah, he'd need a guy like JJ Wolf in a QF to finally get over that hump.

 

[mike danny]

That's an extremely negative way to look at it. Look at the players included in that list, Tiafoe is quite frankly the only one that might raise an eyebrow but that was the year he took Alcaraz to 5 and was in incredibly good form. Nothing about any of those losses is shameful, it's simply players that are a step above him. He's been incredibly consistent outside of that so yeah, he's the new gatekeeper sadly.

Old Cilic on clay isn't a good loss either.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Rublev and Fritz are the worst movers in the top 10 - worse than Zverev, Hurkacz and way slower than the rest. That limits their ceiling as it is a fast sport these days.

Rublev worse than Hurkacz? Doubt.

 

[socallefty]

Rublev worse than Hurkacz? Doubt.

I’ve watched them many times in person. Hurkacz is faster on court for sure.

 

[MeatTornado]

If someone like Cahill had gotten a hold of Rublev 3-4 years ago, I think he'd have made a few slam SF and Fs by now.

The guy is the very definition of someone that hit a ceiling at 23, got too comfortable with his environment and just hasn't improved or made any notable adjustments to his game since. Whether it be through choice or lack of adaptability. He's still essentially just a forehand and that isn't good enough to beat the best at major events.

The way he talks in interviews makes me think the opposite. I think he puts WAY too much pressure on himself because he's so nervous about letting down the people around him. And that's clearly weighing on him during every big match. He's way too hard on himself to the point where its counter-productive. It's almost like he wants it too badly.

 

[socallefty]

You guys think every player’s problem is mental which is why ‘choker’, ’mug’ are words that get tossed around so often here. Usually the players with technique/footwork holes that limit them are mentally suspect or can’t ascend to the top because these weaknesses get exploited. When some of them fix their technical/footwork issues, they get confident and mentally stronger because it is easier to believe they deserve to win even against the best.

Rublev is just too slow to play elite defense which is always needed at some point to win tough sets and matches late in the 2nd week of a Slam. The best players are amongst the fastest players on tour typically in the last decade. This ain’t your father‘s ATP tour anymore. Also his second serve needs to be stronger as his second serve points won % hovers around #25 in the world. Rublev has almost maximized what is possible with his athletic ability and in particular his speed.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

Losing H2H of rublev:
5-2 vs sinner (wins were walkovers)
5-1 vs Novak (win when Novak was out of shape after AO deportation)
7-2 vs med
6-3 vs zed (all in 2023 when Zed was coming back from injury)

If you watch the game you can directly see why. These guys feast on his weak second serves and can attack his backhand.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

I'm losing the plot. I thought you said gamesmaster.

 

[ActualTennisPlayer]

You guys think every player’s problem is mental which is why ‘choker’, ’mug’ are words that get tossed around so often here. Usually the players with technique/footwork holes that limit them are mentally suspect or can’t ascend to the top because these weaknesses get exploited. When some of them fix their technical/footwork issues, they get confident and mentally stronger because it is easier to believe they deserve to win even against the best.

Rublev is just too slow to play elite defense which is always needed at some point to win tough sets and matches late in the 2nd week of a Slam. The best players are amongst the fastest players on tour typically in the last decade. This ain’t your father‘s ATP tour anymore. Rublev has almost maximized what is possible with his athletic ability and in particular his speed.

I agree that rublev doesn’t have the level of Djokovic, sinner, tsitsipas, medvedev, zverev, Alcaraz

But those two he should have won:
2022 FO: Lost to #20 Cilici in 5 sets
2022 USO: lost to #26 Tiafoe in straights

Also I think rublev’s biggest problem is his second serve, followed by his backhand, followed by his variety. These are all things he could have improved. Especially his second serve for his height is pathetic. And he is a bit of a mental nut case sometimes…

 

[Rosstour]

Old Cilic on clay isn't a good loss either.

Cilic is a GOAT ballstriker and was absolutely out of his mind in that match.

 

[Terenigma]

Old Cilic on clay isn't a good loss either.

Ok that is a fair view but Cilic is still a slam winner and established good player but you're right on clay that's a poor result but Rublev is not exactly the clay king either. I still maintain Rublev has hit his peak and unfortunately for him, his peak isn't as high as several other players but he's maintained it and deserves respect for that. He's been incredibly consistent.

 

[Winners or Errors]

Hmm, I think Rublev will eventually win a slam. He has looked better and better over the last year. Got a little unlucky against Sinner, but looked astonishlingly good against Korda. If he can find a way to bring that level, it's a possibility.

 

[socallefty]

Got a little unlucky against Sinner, but looked astonishlingly good against Korda. If he can find a way to bring that level, it's a possibility.

Didn’t he lose in straight sets to Sinner - seems like being unlucky was not the problem as Sinner won all the key points. Korda is #33 in the world and beating the likes of him doesn’t mean you can win Slam QFs, semis and finals especially back-back-back.

 

[Kralingen]

Hmm, I think Rublev will eventually win a slam. He has looked better and better over the last year. Got a little unlucky against Sinner, but looked astonishlingly good against Korda. If he can find a way to bring that level, it's a possibility.

You could argue he actually gave Sinner a tougher match than Novak did