Lets talk "Age"

[Tennis_Hands]

Peak means = Absolute best.
2015 Was his absolute best.

So, Djokovic's peak consists of one year?

OK.

Can you be more precise?

I am sure that in that one year he didn't play at his absolute best all the time: surely, there must be a match where he played his absolute best and some that he didn't.

I am interested in those where he did, so that we can move on with the comparisons.

 

[kishnabe]

Players don't peak at 28-30, don't look at Wawrinka as proof that this is the case.

2011 Djokovic would shred today's Djokovic. 2011 Djokovic >2015 Djokovic btw.
2008 Nadal would murder today's Nadal if he played a 5 hour match in the previous round.
2005 Federer would kill today's Federer.

2015 Djokovic had the weakest competition ever.

Djokolite, Displaced Nadal, Old Man Fed. Only Stanimal who shows a few days a year can hurt him.

2018 is even worse....

2011 Djokovic would humiliate 2015 Djokovic. 2011 Djokovic played against Real Competion, and not mug gen.


It been a weak era since 2013.

 

[EloQuent]

Well if your targeting me, my first sentence in the thread was "Not painting everyone with the same brush"
But there is such thing as an "average" and that is going up.

Yes, I agree that average is going up. We're seeing fewer young stars than in the past, and more players playing well past what used to be retirement.

I was targeting the trolls who say Federer was peak post 07 - by the same logic Djokovic was peak in 09-10. If that's not you, I wasn't targeting you.

 

[ewiewp]

Some decline in their 20s, some peak at 30+.. some retire early, some retire late.



Whatever you lose entering your 30s, you can gain so much more, Tactical play, Anticipation, Mentality, Accuracy

Sure,you decline in a 100m sprint from when you are 25 to when you are 35.
But a lot of other things have yet to hit peak, as concentration peaks at the age of 43 (according to studies), most brain activities peak after 40

So it all depends if you decline to much physically, skip trainings, motivation, unhealthy food etc.. it then outweighs the positive things that peak in your 30s
And thus retires, which was the case of a lot of athletes back in the day

Wawrinka and Agassi are the prime examples of that you can play better tennis in your late 30s then in your early "peak physical age"

It all depends if you only lose 5% of your "physical abilities" but gain 10%+ in other departments..

Ronaldo at 34 years of age in a contact sport like football manged to turn around a 0-2 deficit to 3-2 by scoring an hattrick.
And football is way more "Physical" dependent than tennis.
Does this mean that Ronaldo is in same "physical" shape as when he was 24-26? or runs as fast? No.
But he has probably managed to reduce his decline to something like 5%-10% at max, and the other parts that peak in old age are able to somewhat neutralize his "decline"

Some make fun of the fact Federer lost 1 set to a 35 year old Agassi in the USO Final, but my belief is that Federer probably would have straight setted a 25 year old Agassi.

Peak is when you have the perfect balance, previously that age was around 24-27.. the trend i see now 28-31.

Thats why it frustrates me when people assume "Weak era" because of all this, when it surely didnt help Novak in Indian Wells when a 35 year old Kohlschreiber could still
Play his best tennis.. does it make it a strong era? Perhaps, but sure as hell doesn't make it a weak one.

Tennis has changed.
Surface, equpments, atp ranking, tournament seeding system, and everything.
All from about 15 years ago.

Players' career span will extend toward age of 40.

 

[robthai]

Very interesting analysis. You are right that Cristiano was faster in Manchester and early years in Madrid than he is right now, yet his best seasons are the last 4 or 5: most prolific goal scorer in the Champions and totally dominating the Champions League.

it helps when you have world class teammates like Modric, Marcelo, Ramos etc. Football is a team sport. Can't really compare.

 

[robthai]

Old and washed up Cristiano and Messi ruling the Champions League once again. Football is at the lowest point quality wise in the last 15 years.

Barca have not sniffed a champions league semi let alone final since 2015. What have Ronaldo and Messi done at the world cup? The biggest sporting competition in the world. How many knockout goals have they scored? Wasn't Messi embarrased by a young Mbappe who helped his team win the World Cup while Messi flopped for Argentina?

 

[Steve0904]

Peak age hasn't really changed at all. It's more about the longevity of the top players combined in some percentage with an absolutely terrible lack of talent among the generations that have come after them. If Thiem wins a French in his late 20's early 30's say, it doesn't really mean he's peaking, it will just mean that Nadal and probably Djokovic, fell off enough for him to either beat them in a H2H match at RG and win the title, or not have to beat them at all to win the title.

 

[Username_]

weak gen has appeared to make peak age go up. they are just that trash

 

[Wander]

The average age for peak performances still seems to happen in the mid 20s and this appears to be true for most sports. True enough, some of the very best athletes can maintain a level very close to their peak physical years by both minimizing the decline of their physical attributes and "compensating" to the losses with attributes they have attained through experience.

The poll options are a bit problematic because depending on the player the peak years are most likely to happen anywhere between 23 and and 27 imo. For some they do happen before (say, Hewitt, Becker) and after (Anderson, Wawrinka) these ages too, but those are the more unusual cases.

 

[tex123]

2008 Nadal wouldn't murder 2019 Nadal?

pfffffffffffff

NO WAY.
The only advantage 2008 Nadal has is the speed/court coverage. 2019 Nadal is firing aces with a potent serve. His backhand is a million miles ahead of his 2008 backhand. His forehand is better. He just plays smarter these days.

2010 US Open Nadal would beat anyone. He was bombing 135mph aces then. No one can cope with that combined with his court coverage, speed, athleticism and tenacity.

 

[EloQuent]

The average age for peak performances still seems to happen in the mid 20s and this appears to be true for most sports. True enough, some of the very best athletes can maintain a level very close to their peak physical years by both minimizing the decline of their physical attributes and "compensating" to the losses with attributes they have attained through experience.

The poll options are a bit problematic because depending on the player the peak years are most likely to happen anywhere between 23 and and 27 imo. For some they do happen before (say, Hewitt, Becker) and after (Anderson, Wawrinka) these ages too, but those are the more unusual cases.

I don't agree - there are a whole bunch of player having their best season at 29-32. Murray before the fall, Djokovic, even lower ranked players like Millman, Fognini, Gunneswaran. I'm sure if you skim the top 100 there are others. And then there's players like Cecchinato, Basilashvili, Schwartzman etc who only do well at like 24-27.

So I think it's fair to say that whereas in the past peak age was around 20-25 (with phenoms like Becker earlier and Connors later), today it's more like 23-28 on average.


eta- and maybe drifting towards like 25-30. We could be seeing players that nobody thought of suddenly breaking out at 28 and ruling for a while

 

[tennis_pro]

NO WAY.
The only advantage 2008 Nadal has is the speed/court coverage. 2019 Nadal is firing aces with a potent serve. His backhand is a million miles ahead of his 2008 backhand. His forehand is better. He just plays smarter these days.

2010 US Open Nadal would beat anyone. He was bombing 135mph aces then. No one can cope with that combined with his court coverage, speed, athleticism and tenacity.

I cant go through this

 

[EloQuent]

wait wait wait..... 2019 Nadal is better than 2008 Nadal? This is a fun game. Obviously then, since 2017 Nadal is better than 2019 Nadal, and 2017 Nadal was crushed by a geriatric servebot 4 times.....fun stuff lol

 

[EasyGoing]

Very interesting analysis. You are right that Cristiano was faster in Manchester and early years in Madrid than he is right now, yet his best seasons are the last 4 or 5: most prolific goal scorer in the Champions and totally dominating the Champions League.

Well, at least you are consistent with not understanding much about tennis nor football. Dead wrong and quite amazing if you actually watch football.

I don't agree - there are a whole bunch of player having their best season at 29-32. Murray before the fall, Djokovic, even lower ranked players like Millman, Fognini, Gunneswaran. I'm sure if you skim the top 100 there are others. And then there's players like Cecchinato, Basilashvili, Schwartzman etc who only do well at like 24-27.

So I think it's fair to say that whereas in the past peak age was around 20-25 (with phenoms like Becker earlier and Connors later), today it's more like 23-28 on average.


eta- and maybe drifting towards like 25-30. We could be seeing players that nobody thought of suddenly breaking out at 28 and ruling for a while

Can’t agree with that at all. Murray didn’t really play any better than before, he had Roger and Rafa injured and Nole on a tree hugging mission. There was someone posting about players from Roger’s generation and a few before/after them (@Sputnik Bulgorov I think). That post really enlightens anyone thinking we are witnessing a 7-10 year delay of peak tennis in the last 15 years.
Quite frankly, I find this hypothesis ridiculous (notn saying you made it, though).

 

[EloQuent]

Can’t agree with that at all. Murray didn’t really play any better than before, he had Roger and Rafa injured and Nole on a tree hugging mission. There was someone posting about players from Roger’s generation and a few before/after them (@Sputnik Bulgorov I think). That post really enlightens anyone thinking we are witnessing a 7-10 year delay of peak tennis in the last 15 years.
Quite frankly, I find this hypothesis ridiculous (notn saying you made it, though)

Tag me if you find it.

Re Murray - he's just one example among many. Look at live-tennis.eu and see how many players above 28 are at NCH or near it. Just as an example, in the live ranking 43-46:
43 Lajovic, 28. CH 42.
44 Struff, 28. CH.
45 Kukushkin, 31. CH 43.
46 Albot, 29. NCH (previously 53).

Add these to the ones I mentioned already and it's a pretty notable trend.

Plus iirc didn't Murray make like 3-4 slam finals in 16? I'd have to parse the data but pretty sure you can make the case it was his best level regardless of others. If not better than before, at least the same, which is still a change from the days when peak was 25.

 

[thrust]

I noticed that you didn't answer my question: was Djokovic at his peak in 2011?

Yes or no?

YES!

 

[Tennis_Hands]

YES!

Do you want to have a word about it with the OP?

I have a feeling that his theory wouldn't look as squeaky clean if 2011 was peak Djoker.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

I cant go through this

Don't worry, noone sane can.

The deranged theories and trolling threads are increasing by the hour, and for a while we will see more of it.

Just sit back and enjoy the madness.

 

[thrust]

Tennis was at his highest peak in 2006. Since then is only stagnation and period of downward direction. Devolution in tennis is real and nasty i'm afraid.

Before peak Nadal, off clay, Novak or Murray? NO WAY!

 

[NatF]

Before peak Nadal, off clay, Novak or Murray? NO WAY!

Does your sarcasm detector work in real-life?

 

[thrust]

Some decline in their 20s, some peak at 30+.. some retire early, some retire late.



Whatever you lose entering your 30s, you can gain so much more, Tactical play, Anticipation, Mentality, Accuracy

Sure,you decline in a 100m sprint from when you are 25 to when you are 35.
But a lot of other things have yet to hit peak, as concentration peaks at the age of 43 (according to studies), most brain activities peak after 40

So it all depends if you decline to much physically, skip trainings, motivation, unhealthy food etc.. it then outweighs the positive things that peak in your 30s
And thus retires, which was the case of a lot of athletes back in the day

Wawrinka and Agassi are the prime examples of that you can play better tennis in your late 30s then in your early "peak physical age"

It all depends if you only lose 5% of your "physical abilities" but gain 10%+ in other departments..

Ronaldo at 34 years of age in a contact sport like football manged to turn around a 0-2 deficit to 3-2 by scoring an hattrick.
And football is way more "Physical" dependent than tennis.
Does this mean that Ronaldo is in same "physical" shape as when he was 24-26? or runs as fast? No.
But he has probably managed to reduce his decline to something like 5%-10% at max, and the other parts that peak in old age are able to somewhat neutralize his "decline"

Some make fun of the fact Federer lost 1 set to a 35 year old Agassi in the USO Final, but my belief is that Federer probably would have straight setted a 25 year old Agassi.

Peak is when you have the perfect balance, previously that age was around 24-27.. the trend i see now 28-31.

Thats why it frustrates me when people assume "Weak era" because of all this, when it surely didnt help Novak in Indian Wells when a 35 year old Kohlschreiber could still
Play his best tennis.. does it make it a strong era? Perhaps, but sure as hell doesn't make it a weak one.

Neither Agassi or Stan played their best tennis in their late thirties, perhaps you meant late twenties and early thirties?

 

[thrust]

Does your sarcasm detector work in real-life?

Do you really think Roger's competition in 06 before Nadal, Novak or even Murray reached their peak was stronger than in 11-16?

 

[NatF]

Do you really think Roger's competition in 06 before Nadal, Novak or even Murray reached their peak was stronger than in 11-16?

You misunderstand, the poster you quoted was being sarcastic...

 

[Russeljones]

All great if this was Talk Bridge Warehouse.

 

[RS]

2015 Djokovic had the weakest competition ever.

Djokolite, Displaced Nadal, Old Man Fed. Only Stanimal who shows a few days a year can hurt him.

2018 is even worse....

2011 Djokovic would humiliate 2015 Djokovic. 2011 Djokovic played against Real Competion, and not mug gen.


It been a weak era since 2013.

No player would easily destroy 2015 Djokovic. Your a clear hater. Calling 2013 weak just because Fed was not playing as well is wrong that was a strong year all round.

 

[Lew II]

Djokovic vs Big4 in Slams:

AO11-RG14 ---> 9-8
WI14-AO19 ---> 12-0

 

[Stilljonesing]

27ish is peak for most human activity, hell even most chess grand masters peak at this age.

 

[RaulRamirez]

Karlovic is peaking at 40.

Just sayin.

He peaked at 6'11" - a much higher peak than most.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Djokovic vs Big4 in Slams:

AO11-RG14 ---> 7-8
WI14-AO19 ---> 12-0

Could you list the names of the players you mark as "Big 4" for those periods, and list their ranking at the beginning of every year between 2014 and 2019?

Thanks.

 

[Towny]

Djokovic vs Big4 in Slams:

AO11-RG14 ---> 7-8
WI14-AO19 ---> 12-0

This just highlights the flaws in using specific head to heads irrespective of actual results. This period includes 2017 to mid 2018, where Djokovic won no masters and didn't make it past the QF of any of the slams. Yes he wasn't losing to the rest of the Big 4 at slams, but he was losing to everyone else. No period in AO11 to RG14 was even remotely close to being that bad

 

[EloQuent]

Karlovic is peaking at 40.

Just sayin.

This is amusing but I hope you know it's not actually true. Karlović is out of the top 50. His best years are way behind him.

 

[JoshuaPim]

Djokovic vs Big4 in Slams:

AO11-RG14 ---> 7-8
WI14-AO19 ---> 12-0

Djokovic vs Small4 in Slams:

WI14-A0 19--- 0-4

(Istomin, Cecchinato, Querrey, Chung)

 

[EloQuent]

Djokovic vs Big4 in Slams:

AO11-RG14 ---> 7-8
WI14-AO19 ---> 12-0

I know you like to toss out numbers like this but what exactly do you think this means? Explain yourself.

Also I'd highly recommend you look beyond the bare bone numbers and consider that Murray has been largely absent from the tour these last couple of years, and Djokovic lost often to other players, which explains why a 3.5 year period had 15 matchups while a 4.5 year period only 12.

 

[metsman]

2011 and 2012 were imo the strongest years this century. 2011 is the only 3 Slam year in a really strong year imo. That's not to diss Federer. Mid 2000s wasn't weak, but Fed was the only ATG in his prime at that point. That's happened before, but no players were as greedy as Fed in the mid 2000s.

Was Nadal providing prime ATG competition at Wimby/USO in 2011? If not, then what's really the point of saying that 2011 is better because Nadal was in his prime. Nadal was no more prime in 2011 than 2007 for example and he actually played like it in the 2 slam meetings vs Fed that year.

The difficulty of Fed/Djokovic's slam wins in 04 vs 11 were pretty similar (Fed's Wimby was tougher, Djok's USO was a little tougher, AO pretty similar, Fed faced more decent opponents). Djokovic gets bonus points for a better RG loss, but Fed also wasn't on the brink of defeat at a slam like Djokovic was at USO. But then we can bring in 07 where Fed 3 slams against similar competition and lost to Nadal at RG as well.

 

[Nole_King]

I noticed that you didn't answer my question: was Djokovic at his peak in 2011?

Yes or no?

There's no comparison of Nole 2011. Some fellow Nole fans try to push up the level of 2015/16 to bring more weight to his 4 consecutive slam wins. But as a Nole fan nothing can be better than 2011 where Nole achieved the peaks he did at a time when Nadal was at his best and Federer not too far away.

 

[Nole_King]

"I ain't as good as I once was, but I'm as good once as I ever was."

~ Philipp Kohlschreiber after beating Djokovic, getting owned by Monfils(who gave Thiem a WO) and pulling out of Miami.

He said that ..?? What a wonderful quote

 

[mike danny]

Do you really think Roger's competition in 06 before Nadal, Novak or even Murray reached their peak was stronger than in 11-16?

Why do you put 2014-2016 in the same category as 2011-2013? Was old Roger really that tough of a competition that Fed lacked at his peak? 2014-2016 was roughly on the same level as 2004-2007.

 

[mike danny]

No player would easily destroy 2015 Djokovic. Your a clear hater. Calling 2013 weak just because Fed was not playing as well is wrong that was a strong year all round.

It was a strong year, but it was mostly the Djokodal show.

 

[RS]

It was a strong year, but it was mostly the Djokodal show.

Agree. Murray was great until the summer. We had guys like Ferrer,Wawrinka,Del Po giving great matches also. The OP could have mentioned that.

 

[Lew II]

Age of the last 16 slam winners:

30, 28, 28, 28, 29, 29, 31, 35, 31, 35, 31, 36, 32, 31, 31, 31

Age of the last 16 slam finalists:

28, 33, 34, 28, 29, 25, 29, 30, 32, 28, 31, 29, 24, 32, 29, 32

 

[Phoenix1983]

This is amusing but I hope you know it's not actually true. Karlović is out of the top 50. His best years are way behind him.

It was a slight exaggeration said in the spirit of this thread.

He’s playing very well for his age though - no one since Connors has been ranked as highly over 40.

 

[Lew II]

In the last 32 Slams, no player younger than 24 has ever reached a final.

In the previous 32 slams, 30 finalists were younger than 24.

 

[TripleATeam]

26-29

 

[EloQuent]

In the last 32 Slams, no player younger than 24 has ever reached a final.

In the previous 32 slams, 30 finalists were younger than 24.

I usually roll my eyes at #LewStats but this can't be entirely meaningless. Sure, a big part of it is q small group of players who blocked out the sun and got older together. In 2006-07 they were 19-25, now they are old. And then there's the blip of the Useless Gen(s). But Kevin Anderson reached multiple finals and Dominic Thiem is a "young gun" so something somehow has changed.

 

[Lew II]

I usually roll my eyes at #LewStats but this can't be entirely meaningless. Sure, a big part of it is q small group of players who blocked out the sun and got older together. In 2006-07 they were 19-25, now they are old. And then there's the blip of the Useless Gen(s). But Kevin Anderson reached multiple finals and Dominic Thiem is a "young gun" so something somehow has changed.

Excluding Big4

RG11-AO19 --> 0 out of 14 were younger than 24
RG03-AO11 --> 11 out of 24 were younger than 24

 

[AndyM]

Pure absolute peak is 28 years old pure absolute peak

 

[deaner2211]

Some decline in their 20s, some peak at 30+.. some retire early, some retire late.



Whatever you lose entering your 30s, you can gain so much more, Tactical play, Anticipation, Mentality, Accuracy

Sure,you decline in a 100m sprint from when you are 25 to when you are 35.
But a lot of other things have yet to hit peak, as concentration peaks at the age of 43 (according to studies), most brain activities peak after 40

So it all depends if you decline to much physically, skip trainings, motivation, unhealthy food etc.. it then outweighs the positive things that peak in your 30s
And thus retires, which was the case of a lot of athletes back in the day

Wawrinka and Agassi are the prime examples of that you can play better tennis in your late 30s then in your early "peak physical age"

It all depends if you only lose 5% of your "physical abilities" but gain 10%+ in other departments..

Ronaldo at 34 years of age in a contact sport like football manged to turn around a 0-2 deficit to 3-2 by scoring an hattrick.
And football is way more "Physical" dependent than tennis.
Does this mean that Ronaldo is in same "physical" shape as when he was 24-26? or runs as fast? No.
But he has probably managed to reduce his decline to something like 5%-10% at max, and the other parts that peak in old age are able to somewhat neutralize his "decline"

Some make fun of the fact Federer lost 1 set to a 35 year old Agassi in the USO Final, but my belief is that Federer probably would have straight setted a 25 year old Agassi.

Peak is when you have the perfect balance, previously that age was around 24-27.. the trend i see now 28-31.

Thats why it frustrates me when people assume "Weak era" because of all this, when it surely didnt help Novak in Indian Wells when a 35 year old Kohlschreiber could still
Play his best tennis.. does it make it a strong era? Perhaps, but sure as hell doesn't make it a weak one.

I have never heard of a hat trick in football...is that a touchdown and a field goal?

 

[Gary Duane]

Djokovic 2011 vs Djokovic 2015 would be an interesting contest.

- Insane baseline and return game vs More complete game with improved serve
- Fearless aggression vs Measured experience

Nat, what we need to find out is this: we have a number of players who are continuing to improve service stats late in their careers. We could easily argue that Fed is still peaking if we look only at his serve statistics (service game), but his return game continues to decline. His returning peak was in 2006 on HCs. Djokovic's peak returning was in 2011.

Peak returning is still happening when we expect it to happen. But the top players mostly continue to serve better. The balance of these two factors should eventually give us answers.

For some reason the serve for most players continues to develop late. Do you have any theories about this? To much baselining for young players thinking they can win everything with defense?

 

[EloQuent]

Nat, what we need to find out is this: we have a number of players who are continuing to improve service stats late in their careers. We could easily argue that Fed is still peaking if we look only at his serve statistics (service game), but his return game continues to decline. His returning peak was in 2006 on HCs. Djokovic's peak returning was in 2011.

Peak returning is still happening when we expect it to happen. But the top players mostly continue to serve better. The balance of these two factors should eventually give us answers.

For some reason the serve for most players continues to develop late. Do you have any theories about this? To much baselining for young players thinking they can win everything with defense?

Could be just strength? Doesn't physical strength peak at around 30? Add in more years of practice for placement and technique. Whereas speed and fitness peak earlier.

 

[KINGROGER]

Djokovic vs Big4 in Slams:

AO11-RG14 ---> 9-8
WI14-AO19 ---> 12-0

Thanks for proving to us the weak era of 2014W - present.

He lost 8 times in 2011-2014RG because he had guys like Nadal, 2011-2012 Fed, pre surgery Murray who could take him out.