Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Alcaraz, Cincinnati final, 2023

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4) in the Cincinnati final, 2023 on hard court

It was Djokovic’s 3rd title at the event and he would shortly after go onto win the US Open. The two had recently played the Wimbledon final, with Alcaraz winning in 5 sets

Djokovic won 133 points, Alcaraz 128

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (73/128) 57%
- 1st serve points won (49/73) 67%
- 2nd serve points won (35/55) 64%
- Aces 4 (1 possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (42/128) 33%

Alcaraz...
- 1st serve percentage (86/133) 65%
- 1st serve points won (62/86) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (22/47) 47%
- Aces 12 (1 possibly not clean)
- Double Faults 5
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (32/133) 24%

Serve Pattern
Djokovic served...
- to FH 51%
- to BH 46%
- to Body 2%

Alcaraz served...
- to FH 30%
- to BH 64%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 96 (27 FH, 69 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 20 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (8 BH)
- 12 Forced (4 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (96/128) 75%

Alcaraz made...
- 81 (44 FH, 37 BH), including 4 runaround FHs, 3 return-approaches & 1 lob-return
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 38 Errors, comprising...
- 16 Unforced (14 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH & 1 return-approach attempt
- 22 Forced (11 FH, 11 BH)
- Return Rate (81/123) 66%

Break Points
Djokovic 3/16 (7 games)
Alcaraz 4/10 (4 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Djokovic 17 (4 FH, 2 BH, 2 FHV, 6 BHV, 3 OH)
Alcaraz 32 (15 FH, 7 BH, 8 FHV, 2 BHV)

Djokovic's FHs - 1 dtl pass at net, 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in
- BHs - 1 cc pass, 1 inside-out return

- 5 from serve-volley points
- 3 first volleys (1 FHV, 2 BHV)
- 2 second volleys (1 FHV, 1 OH)

Alcaraz' FHs - 4 cc (1 return, 1 pass), 1 cc/inside-in, 3 dtl (1 pass), 2 inside-out, 2 inside-in, 3 drop shots
- BHs - 1 cc, 5 dtl (2 passes), 1 lob

- 3 from serve-volley points (2 FHV, 1 BHV), all first volleys
- 3 from return-approach points (3 FHV)
- 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Djokovic 59
- 48 Unforced (19 FH, 27 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)... with 1 OH on the bounce from the baseline
- 11 Forced (5 FH, 5 BH, 1 BHV)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.0

Alcaraz 69
- 46 Unforced (21 FH, 23 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 23 Forced (15 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.0

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 22/31 (71%) at net, including...
- 6/7 (86%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 0/1 off 1st serve and...
- 6/6 (100%) off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 forced back

Alcaraz was...
- 16/21 (76%) at net, including...
- 7/9 (78%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 3/3 (100%) return-approaching

Match Report
The tension and intensity is off the charts for most of the final set, with the tennis good too to. Combo of the two is almost enough to wipe out memory of just how poorly played the match had been before that. Watch the ending, and you’ll think neither player deserves to lose. Watch the rest, and you’ll think neither player deserves to win. Fitting enough that Djokovic wins as he’s the one who has always led in the decider - and the tension of him being unable to close things out when on the brink is based on his being physically off all match. Court is normal of pace, with bounce on high side

Long before that, Alcaraz has a match point in the second set tie-break. Its erased with prejudice - strong serve drawing weak return and a slapped away winning FH inside-in

Third set though is Djoko’s. He breaks for 4-3, having narrowly failed to do so on his previous attempt. He’s got 2 match points in his next return game, both turning into net points (1 for each player) and both going to Alcs. He’s got 2 more serving for the match after that, interspersed with 4 break points for Alcs and again, its Alcs who comes through. He’s got 4 break points the game after, with the living on the edge Alcs turning to serve-volley to come away with the hold

And he finally converts in a nervy tiebreak. Amidst such tension, the tennis is very good. In that last set -

Winners - Djoko 6, Alcs 17
Errors Forced - Djoko 12, Alcs 8
UEs - Djoko 14, Alcs 18

Winner/UE differential - Djoko -8, Alcs -1
Aggressively ended points/UE differential - Djoko +4, Alcs +7

Not too shabby at any time, pretty great with everything that’s going around. (Match long is a very different story, which we’ll get to in a bit)

That’s the drama and tension. The background is Djokovic being a rock (as in, moving like one, not being impenetrable)

Djokovic’s Condition, Prospects & Dynamics
Djokovic looks tired even at the start. By middle of first set, very tired. By the end of it, dead on his feet with hollow eyes. Long term followers of the game will be familiar with the look; it’s the one he’s often sported an hour before holding up a trophy, with his opponent standing next to him holding what looks like a decent plate to serve muffins on

His history is such that one would do well to not take facial expressions and body language cues too seriously. Here though, there’s a difference. He moves terribly all match - his best movement is right at the start when its merely bad. For most of match, terrible - the worst I’ve seen from him by a country mile. Looks like he’s carrying an unnecessary pound or two around the gut too

Its not confined to sideways movement, which is poor enough. All match, and more so as match goes on, Djoko doesn’t get down for his groundstrokes, especially the BH. A little stoop of the shoulders is extent of his set-up (as opposed to getting down and moving up with the shot, as is his habit. It’s a sign of what a fine ball-striker he is that it doesn’t lead to weak shots. Errors yes - plenty of those, but still decent force and depth on his groundies despite the mechanics. 9/10 players trying to hit groundies like this would cough up a soft mid-court ball sooner rather than later, but not Djoko

15-30 with Alcaraz serving for the first set, Djoko lets a gettable BH cc go without chase. Usually lets drop shots go for winners uncontested. He’s broken early in second set with 3 double faults in a row - the last fault is so puny that it would probably have bounced twice or thrice before reaching the baseline had it made it over the net. Even amidst the tension of the decider with everything to play for, he declines to chase a few balls and is slow enough that he just barely reaches what would usually be almost routine, slightly wide balls

Some theatrics too. In second set tiebreak, he appears to be on the verge of losing his balance after making an error. He did plenty of this back in 2012 US Open final too - and it looks as artificial here as it did then

Whatever’s wrong with him - it looks more like fatigue than injury, though its strange that he’d be fatigued at very start - clearly, something is and that sets the stage for the story. Not a 50-50 of prospect slugfest, but a hampered Djoko versus a fit Alcaraz - likely to go the way of Alc leading, Djoko reacting at best from Djoko’s point of view. And so it is

With Djoko in such a state, what does that leave Alcaraz to do? One would imagine, whatever he likes. He’s quite capable of beating any version of Djokovic, let alone a slothful one

Alc’s proceeds to -
- serve pretty well
- return poorly (of consistency, of strategy)
- under-perform off the ground (questionable strategy, not very good execution)

And Djoko? Within limits set by his state, he plays superbly (by standards of a normal state, not well).
- Serves pretty well, but more a blackmark against Alc’s returning for how that contest turns out
- Returns steadily - good job
- Can’t match Alc’s hitting but doesn’t fall too far behind on the error front - relative win
- Attacks moderately, with just-so precisely wide dtl shots on occasion. Not sure point-enders against the very quick Alc’s but usually wins such points - win
- Comes to net, second serve-volleys with Alc’s taking second returns from well back and volleys beautifully there - very good

All in context of a fleet Alc’s leading play, a slow Djoko reacting/counter-punching - which as a starting point, looks very gloomy from Djoko’s point of view

As for quality of play, this is, without shadow of a doubt, the greatest match ever played… where both players end up with more UEs than winners + errors forced

Djoko… 17 winners, 23 errors forced, 48 UEs
Winners/UE differential -31
Aggressively ended points/UE differential -8

Alcs… 32 winners, 11 errors forced, 46 UEs
Winner/UE differential -14
Aggressively ended points/UE differential -3

The finale is as memorable as they come - and the tennis is good to boot. Makes for quite spectacle (credit also to the crowd, who gets suitably excited, without hampering the players)
The first 2 sets are, to mince words, not the best. In French, a bunch of crap

 

[Waspsting]

Serve, Return & Serve-Volley
Djoko serves well enough, and returns well
Alcs serve is a bit up and down, pretty good in all and he returns not well (no French, not well means not well) with some curious choices of manner. Its not crystal clear if the choices are good ones, but probably not

Unreturned rates - Djoko 33%, Alc 24%

That’s a big, big win for Djoko (as it has to be for him to win, seeing as he’s trailing play) and its not all to his credit

He serves well, but not 33% freebies well. Low 4 aces are a hint that his serve isn’t overly challenging, but hints can be deceptive. Its not only possible, but generally, a good thing to have fewer aces with high unreturned counts (indicator of doing enough to win points without taking undue risks)

Alc’s return errors - 16 UEs, 22 FEs

And that would be Alc’s role in the high lot of freebies, and its not good. Worse than it looks even because a high lot of the FEs are on the lighter side of forceful. Lots of pacey, in-swing zone or just outside it first serves from Djoko. Courts not particularly fast, bounce is high. Alcs misses a few too many of them

Good return showing (in terms of return rate) against this calibre serving would be around 75-80% - anything above that is bonus territory. Alcs returning at 66% is a fail on his part. 66% return rate might be worth if the returns are hot and heavy enough to push server right on the defensive (as Djoko’s tend to generally do). Not much of that from Alcs either

Most interesting part is Djoko’s second serves. Alcs chooses to return them from way back position (he takes first returns from a normal one). Is it worth it? What’s the thinking behind it?

Presumably, his aim to is maximize return rate and he feels he’d miss a few from a normal or early position. For starters, he misses a few even from back there. Secondly, he allows Djoko to safely roll in second serves, confident he’ll retain good position for the rally to come

Fewer misses the better and despite flaws, Alcs isn’t in blackmark territory for consistency. Nor would leaving Djoko third ball initiative necessarily be a bad thing, if Alcs were regularly able to outplay him from the back

Neither happens. For starters, Djoko captilizes by second serve-volleying to good effect. Does so 6 times (as opposed to just once off first serve) and wins all 6. And Djoko makes most of gifted initiative to win bulk of baseline points too to come away winning 64% of second serve points (a full 17% better than Alcs can)

Is Djoko’s normal second serve tough to return from normal position? Is it likely to draw a lot of return errors? Probably not. Odd decision from Alcs to take returns so safely, particularly as its out of sync with the hit-through baseline strategy he employs (more on that later). The backward return position is best used when just getting the return back is a challenge and/or when player is very comfortable and willing to defend or be at least be in reactive role for the upcoming rally (which doesn’t’ seem to be Alc’s plan at all)

Late in the match, he steps up to attacking second serves, hammers a few very early (including an Agassi like very early taken winner) and return-approaches with success (which ends up requiring excellent volleys as well as the return itself). Still misses returns and forces Djoko to serve with more heat and risk double faulting

Djoko ends up not double faulting and handles the challenge of an aggressive returner well. Its unlikely he could regularly serve such strong seconds without getting into double fault trouble

On other hand, Alc’s below par consistency returning regulation first serves hints at him just being off on the second shot for the day. So why not fall back to return more safely? Better than missing returns (though he ends up doing that anyway from well back)

So the matter of where and how to take second returns isn’t an obvious one, with pluses and minuses for and against, but I’d have said it wasn’t best option to fall back and so it proves (in no small part to Djoko utilizing the move in best way). Whatever the pros and cons of Alcs’ move, perfectly adapted to it by Djoko - taking something off the serve when its not in danger, putting more on when it is, second serve-volleying to good effect, utilizing position to start baseline rallies - job well done

One particular memorable point where Alc’s intentionally lobs the return, having got used to Djoko’s serve-volleying. Loses the point, but worth a shot - Djoko volleys superbly and its rarely a bad idea to test his OH

On flip side, good serving by Alcs, very good returning from Djoko

Alc’s with high 65% in count (8% clear of Djoko) and with 12 aces or 14% off first serves (Djoko has just 5%). Normal pace, not too wide placement in general of first serves. Odd extra powerful one thrown in (which he makes more often than misses), and has potential to catch Djoko out

All very well handled by Djoko. Doesn’t miss much - 20 returns given he’s aced 12 times is very good. Returns firmly without leaving easy third balls. Few smacked deep. His force and frequency of particularly deep returns is down from personal norm, but good enough. His movement issues aren’t much of a factor (its running that’s more problematic). 75% return rate with healthy, often neutralizing force - about as good as he could expect

Can Alcs serve bigger more often, given he saves the extra powerful one for choice times? Probably, at risk of lowering in count. Not really worth going for while he’s getting better of action (and would feel confident of doing), and with good likelihood of a bigger match down the not too distant road with the same opponent

Gist - Djoko serves well enough, Alcs doesn’t’ return well and Alcs serves well, Djoko returns well

Play - Baseline & Net
Alcs tries to hit through Djoko from the baseline, or go for shot-making winners
Djoko resists as he can, sneaks in more subtle, wide hitting attacking plays and attacks the net

Alcs leads, Djoko reacts - so mostly the first mentioned, Djoko pinching in what he can, when he can

Alcs’ hitting through Djoko (as in hitting strong-ish groundies looking for errors, not going too wide to force an error or open the court), doesn’t work too well because Alcs’ is error prone. Works well enough because Djoko is more error prone still

Groundstroke UEs -
- Djoko FH 19
- Alcs FH 21 & Alcs BH 23
- Djoko BH 27

… with neutral UEs being Djoko 30, Alcs 23

BHs the side Djoko has most movement problems on and he plays from upright position. If his force of shot is down, its not to extent of giving up weak balls. Consistency though isn’t good

Neutral UEs indicate Alcs ploy working somewhat. Probably not to the extent he could reasonably expect it to - he’s harder hitter, he’s better mover. Djoko’s not to be underestimated, but relative fail but that margin of neutral advantage is a relative fail for Alcs

Being harder hitter (and by a long way the better mover), leaves him with all kinds of alternatives to hitting through and breaking down Djoko’s groundies - none of which he does or does well

Amidst cc rallies, Alcz occasionally picks a ball to go dtl off for a winner. Some fine shots, some misses. He’s got 12 winner attempt UEs off the ground. Not at all good for 16 ground-to-ground winners (i.e. groundstroke winners sans passes and returns). Its not because Djoko’s giving him particularly deep balls as he sometimes tends to - just a bad hit rate from Alcs

 

[Waspsting]

Obvious alternative - play 1-2s, move Djoko over with a slightly wider cc shot, then go for the dtl finisher. None of that from Alcs - he picks a ball and goes for it

Move Djoko around. Very obvious alternative, and Alcs has best seat in the house to see how its done because that’s how Djoko attack and counter-attacks him. A longline change-up here and there can go a long way in normal circumstances and this one particularly favours it

None of that at all from Alcs. Like many powerful, attacking baseliners, its likely he just doesn’t have it in his toolbox

Come to net. Almost zero of that from Alc until the very end. He’s at net 8 times in first two sets. Unlike the move-opponent-about thing, he’s generally sound in mixing in net play with his powerful groundies. Not here, not at all

Essentially, Alcs hits strong groundstrokes to draw errors (some success, not as much as he’d like because he himself blinks regularly) and occasionally goes for a dtl winner (limited success because his shot-makings off). Not much subtlety to Alcs play, and not very good play either

And Djoko? Amidst losing steadiness battles, he picks his balls to go longline, and get Alcs moving. Safer than going for winners out of the blue, though as quick as Alcs is, not a sure fire point ender. It works well enough. He’s forced 23 ground errors - more than half of them baseline-to-baseline rallies. Higher lot of Alcs’ neutral UEs are also on the move slightly, relatively hard for a UE. Alcs forces just 11 errors from Djoko by contrast

Way the two move, Djoko forcing so many more errors than Alcs from baseline rallies is a gift for Djoko. He earns the errors he draws with smart, measured play. Alcs is is unimaginatively one dimensional by contrast

And net play. On top of the second serve-volleying, Djoko comes forward when he can and he doesn’t have luxary of coming in off strong approaches. Rallying to net, both win 67% of points -
Djoko 16/24
Alcs 6/9

Two things stand out from that. As stronger hitter, Alcs has far more scope to come in and his disinclincation to do so until the very end is a bad move. And Djoko’s done very well to use the net when he can, especially since its harder for him to come up. He volleys beautifully - the touch and feel are McEnroe-esque. Feather of a touch to drop balls dead for winners. Another ball he turns his body to short angle inside-out a BHV winner away - a favourite of Stefan Edberg’s

Wouldn’t have believed this could happen 10 years ago. Novak Djokovic, as graceful at net as a cow on ice back then (to exaggerate a bit), volleying like John McEnroe and pulling out a Stefan Edberg special perfectly (not exaggerating)

Net play is crucial because Djoko’s an even bigger mess than Alcs going for winners from the back (as stated earlier, this isn’t a well played match). He’s got just 3 baseline-to-baseline winners and 11 errors trying - beyond horrendous, but his attempts are chancey ones from not good positions (as opposed to Alcs who can wait and pick his moments). And he has his move-opponent around and net play stuff to win points - hitting winners from the back is a third string for him. Second string for Alcs, with the first of breaking Djoko down not particularly working

Playing dynamics change towards the end, with Alcs playing more aggressively, going for drop shots, coming forward, slapping returns early, return-approaching etc. And Djoko straining to move about and do the needful offensively and defensively, while still moving badly

Match Progression
Djokovic looks wear at the start and by end of first set, downright tired. Moves pretty badly and that gets worse as set goes on too. Alcaraz is more powerful of shot, much quicker and serves bigger and at much higher in -count (Djoko 58%, Alcs 72%)

Rallies are medium of length with Alcz the harder hitter. He’s error prone enough to leave Djoko’s head above water, just about

Despite all that, its Djoko who claims first blood with a break to love to go up 4-2. 3 UEs by Alcs and Djoko finishing with a FH inside-in winner. Alcs hits back at once - a running BH dtl winner to a strong FH inside-out is superb and errors make up the rest

The first net point comes on matches 48th point. Exquisite drop BHV winner by Djoko on it but he’s he’s broken for 5-6 afterwards with more errors off the ground than outdo an ace and a pair of serve-volleying winners. Alcs serves it out from 15-30 down, finishing with a pair of BH winners (1 cc, 1 dtl) in the last 3 points

Not bad from Djoko to keep things competitive, but he’s badly outgunned, not least because of serve-percentages. Alcs wins 54% of the points while serving just 42% of them.

Match has been a little strange to this point and it gets weirder still in the second. Djoko breaks himself with 3 straight double faults, each one feebler than the last to go down an early break. Alcs strikes a extra special, running BH lob winner in game 7. Then plays a terrible game to get broken to 15 to even things at 4-4 (4 UEs - 3 BHs, 2 of them third balls, 1 FH)

Couple of perfect BHV winners from Djoko later on - neither to difficult balls, but the finishing is stylish as can be - 1 short angled away, the second featherily dropped. Alcs pulls out his first serve-volley in holding to send the set into a tiebreak

Alcs both gives up and regains mini-breaks by drop-shotting Djoko to net. Unique point where Alcs receives the serve-volleying Djoko with a high lob return, that Djoko needs 2 OHs to putaway makes it 4-4
Its still on serve as Alc reaches match point. Big serve, weak return, strong FH inside-in erases it.
Alcs misses routine third ball FH to bring up Djoko’s first set point on serve in which a passive rally develops. Alcs steps in to hammer a BH that he nets and its 1 set apiece

Action improves slightly early in the decider (which isn’t saying much) and Alcs shows new found aggressive spirit. He’s at net 3 times to get out of trouble and hold for 3-2 (2 break points) and for first time, steps up to take second returns early after that. Hits a fully stretched BH dtl pass winner that’s exactly like the type Djoko’s in habit of hitting. Fine game by Djoko to break for 4-3

Rest is wonderful stuff - Alcs struggling to hold twice, sandwiching Djoko getting broken serving for the match - there’s net play, serve-volleys, return-approaches, couple of wonderful volleys from Alcs, drop shot plays, 4 match points for Djoko (2 on serve, 2 on return), aggressive early returning from Alcs, just wide enough attacking shots from Djoko… what isn’t there?

It all leads to another tiebreak. Not a good one from Alcs, who double faults to open and misses 4 returns, but things are on serve to 4-4 when Djoko strikes with an error forcing FH inside-in. Alcs misses next 2 returns - first one a good, strong wide serve, the second a routine second return

Djoko wins 58/111 or 52% of the points, serving 44% of them for the set

Summing up, an unforgettable match, with an amazing ending of intense, all-court back & forth action. Djokovic, who has considerably better of things at that late stage, fittingly comes out on top

Running thread through the match’s storyline is Djokovic being physically off through virtually all of it. Looks like a conditioning issue and his movements are poor - particularly in reaching the ball, but also in his shot set up mechanics

In that light, he plays very smartly. Maximizes what he can get out of his serve, returns steadily as can with decent force and hangs in best he can against the more powerful groundstrokes of his opponent. While being outhit and outlasted, he doesn’t give up loose balls, makes and takes his own chances to attack by hitting just wide enough and utilizing net play, including serve-volleying to good effect. His volleying is a thing of beauty as well as highly successful

Not a bad match from Alcaraz but plenty of room for improvement, as much in his choices as his play. Passive returning and attempt to hit through Djokovic are questionable strategies and he doesn’t execute either particularly well either. He is the stronger hitter and much, much quicker mover, but doesn’t get most out of either of those. When he wants, shows good ability to take charge of action and attack, but largely, sticks to looking to draw errors with hardy groundstrokes

Brains more than anything is the difference between the two players - Djokovic playing a strategically perfect match, Alcaraz a dubious one

 

[Third Serve]

I don’t think Djokovic has ever played a truly great tournament at Cincinnati.

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

When Djokovic was acting possum in 2nd set, Alcaraz should have really pressed his foot on the pedal to push for a double break; or at the very least, keep the one break lead by playing percentage tennis instead of trying to hit rockets off 3rd balls to get broken.

Despite Alcaraz having played extremely poorly whole week (2 weeks if we count Canada too), and Djokovic having played clinical tennis before the final, Alcaraz could've triumphed in straight sets, but he fell for Djokovic's exhaustion trap.

Additionally, after breaking Djokovic back at 5-4 in 3rd set to level 5-5, and then holding to lead 6-5 afterwards, Alcaraz won a stunning point with a drop shot to lead 15-0 on Djokovic service game. He should have poured in everything to win that game, as it was clear that in the TB his error stewn game would cost him; but Alcaraz just let go of that return game and rest is TB-ovic as we know.

 

[TheFifthSet]

I don’t think Djokovic has ever played a truly great tournament at Cincinnati.

‘08 and ‘09 were pretty good, ‘12 was excellent aside from the first set in the final. Otherwise yeah.

 

[GoatNo1]

it's still left to play and we'll see what the finish of paris brings and WTF after that. but it can easily be shown that this was the match that decided YE#1 and lowered Raz's confidence and raised Nole's.

 

[Shaj]

Novak ate Alcarazs legs by the 3rd set..He was hanging on by his funky play.If Novak didn't choke it would have been over 6-3...Even Alcsraz himself admitted this...

When Djokovic was acting possum in 2nd set, Alcaraz should have really pressed his foot on the pedal to push for a double break; or at the very least, keep the one break lead by playing percentage tennis instead of trying to hit rockets off 3rd balls to get broken.

Despite Alcaraz having played extremely poorly whole week (2 weeks if we count Canada too), and Djokovic having played clinical tennis before the final, Alcaraz could've triumphed in straight sets, but he fell for Djokovic's exhaustion trap.

Additionally, after breaking Djokovic back at 5-4 in 3rd set to level 5-5, and then holding to lead 6-5 afterwards, Alcaraz won a stunning point with a drop shot to lead 15-0 on Djokovic service game. He should have poured in everything to win that game, as it was clear that in the TB his error stewn game would cost him; but Alcaraz just let go of that return game and rest is TB-ovic as we know.

 

[tudwell]

I remember banging my head against the wall with Raz’s return position in the second set. If you’re gonna stand 20 feet back, you have to at least get the return in play, and he started missing far too high a proportion, plus giving Djokovic easy serve-volley points, etc. Felt like he adjusted way too late.

In general I think he took his foot off the gas in the second set seeing the state Novak looked to be in. Well, we see how that turned out. The ol’ rope-a-dope snared another victim.

 

[NoleFam]

If you want to get an idea that Djokovic is still an elite mover but his stamina in longer rallies is not where it was at his peak, then look no further than the Alcaraz matchup. You will see Alcaraz hitting a lot more winners at Wimbledon and Cincy but it doesn't paint the full picture imo because Alcaraz has the youth and legs to run down everything, and Djokovic isn't going to and is going to pace himself. He can't do it anymore anyways. This is the most noticeable difference to me now, because the Djokovic of 2011-2016 would track those shots down.

Imo, Alcaraz was getting to shots Djokovic was hitting in that Wimbledon final that he had no business getting to. Alcaraz is definitely faster than Djokovic is right now but Djokovic just has so much in his arsenal, he can beat you in different ways. You could see that in the USO final how he refused to play Medvedev's long rally game and served and volleyed, was more aggressive and trying to shorten points. He was clearly getting winded in that 2nd set with all those long exchanges.

 

[Waspsting]

I don’t think Djokovic has ever played a truly great tournament at Cincinnati.

That's the beauty of the player (I imagine some will use a different word than 'beauty' though)

He plays better than his opponet. Seems to almost not matter how well that opponent is playing - he plays crap, Djoko might play average, he plays average, Djoko plays above average... all the way up to he plays great, Djoko plays really great

He also has the ability to draw opponents into playing not well (which you do via consistency, and in his case, depth in particular)
He's not the first. Borg, Lendl, Wilander all excelled at this too. Agassi to a lesser extent and of course, Nadal. The best of best baseliners all do this. Goes over the head of the 'peak level' crowd, but there's not much that doesn't

If you want to get an idea that Djokovic is still an elite mover but his stamina in longer rallies is not where it was at his peak, then look no further than the Alcaraz matchup

I agree with the statement, but don't think this match is an ideal example to illustrate it because somethings clearly wrong with him here right from the start

From memory (as opposed to an extreme close re-watch), he got winded at Wimby final too

I don't know Alcaraz's game too well, but he looks like a good guy to bait into going for too much. I don't think that's what Djokovic does here - he just can't keep up in terms of force of shot -but yeah. Hit deep, hit firm and see if this 20 year old kid who I assume is very used to overpowering opponents has the brains and judgment not to do anything stupid against it

You will see Alcaraz hitting a lot more winners at Wimbledon and Cincy but it doesn't paint the full picture imo because Alcaraz has the youth and legs to run down everything, and Djokovic isn't going to and is going to pace himself.

With Djokovic, its never been primarily about the winners. He wins points as risk free as possible
If he can grind a guy down (drawing basic UEs), he'll do that. Why risk being aggressive and raising his own errors if he can readily just outlast the other guy?
If he can't do that, he'll hit a little harder, deeper, wider and see if he can draw errors that way - a little more risk, but necessary if opponent holds up against stock stuff
And so on, all the way up to being genuinely aggressive and looking to hit winners into corners

Or not. Might come out and take racquet out of opponents hand - as you said, he can beat you in a lot of different ways. Ultra aggression is rare for him though

1 thing I can tell you about him is he has always forced a lot of errors, relative to the number of winners he hits. That's smart tennis right there. Outside of video games (as far as I know) or against puny opposition, hitting winners from the back of the court is bloody hard work - only a fool or a limited player counts on it as first string

A prize example of Djokovic's measured play is on the return. Given the apparent ease and regularity with which he keeps landing firm returns deep down the middle, I have 0 doubt that were he so inclined, he could regularly hit return winners down the line

How often does he even try? Why would he? What he does works, for him its high percentage so that's what he does

It ain't broken, no reason to fix it

 

[Third Serve]

That's the beauty of the player (I imagine some will use a different word than 'beauty' though)

He plays better than his opponet. Seems to almost not matter how well that opponent is playing - he plays crap, Djoko might play average, he plays average, Djoko plays above average... all the way up to he plays great, Djoko plays really great

He also has the ability to draw opponents into playing not well (which you do via consistency, and in his case, depth in particular)
He's not the first. Borg, Lendl, Wilander all excelled at this too. Agassi to a lesser extent and of course, Nadal. The best of best baseliners all do this. Goes over the head of the 'peak level' crowd, but there's not much that doesn't

Eh, I feel this is different.

We have seen countless examples of Djokovic completely overwhelming his opponent (not only on offensive play but also on defensive play) to the point that I don't think it's necessary for Djokovic to resort to this method unless he himself is not in great form and needs to slowly play himself into a higher level. This has happened at pretty much every major tournament except Cincinnati. I just don't think Djokovic is that great at Cincinnati in particular since I haven't been impressed by his tennis at this tournament compared to other places. Personally, I think it's the conditions that he finds more uncomfortable than most.

 

[NoleFam]

I agree with the statement, but don't think this match is an ideal example to illustrate it because somethings clearly wrong with him here right from the start

From memory (as opposed to an extreme close re-watch), he got winded at Wimby final too

I don't know Alcaraz's game too well, but he looks like a good guy to bait into going for too much. I don't think that's what Djokovic does here - he just can't keep up in terms of force of shot -but yeah. Hit deep, hit firm and see if this 20 year old kid who I assume is very used to overpowering opponents has the brains and judgment not to do anything stupid against it



With Djokovic, its never been primarily about the winners. He wins points as risk free as possible
If he can grind a guy down (drawing basic UEs), he'll do that. Why risk being aggressive and raising his own errors if he can readily just outlast the other guy?
If he can't do that, he'll hit a little harder, deeper, wider and see if he can draw errors that way - a little more risk, but necessary if opponent holds up against stock stuff
And so on, all the way up to being genuinely aggressive and looking to hit winners into corners

Or not. Might come out and take racquet out of opponents hand - as you said, he can beat you in a lot of different ways. Ultra aggression is rare for him though

1 thing I can tell you about him is he has always forced a lot of errors, relative to the number of winners he hits. That's smart tennis right there. Outside of video games (as far as I know) or against puny opposition, hitting winners from the back of the court is bloody hard work - only a fool or a limited player counts on it as first string

A prize example of Djokovic's measured play is on the return. Given the apparent ease and regularity with which he keeps landing firm returns deep down the middle, I have 0 doubt that were he so inclined, he could regularly hit return winners down the line

How often does he even try? Why would he? What he does works, for him its high percentage so that's what he does

It ain't broken, no reason to fix it

I think he started off fine in Cincy and went up the break but clearly struggled with the conditions and heat. Only made that surge once the sun started setting and it cooled down.

He definitely got winded at Wimbledon and got killed in the 10+ rallies; Alcaraz won 24 and he only won 14. The longer the rallies went, the more he was at a disadvantage. This would never happen in Djokovic's peak where he could outlast everyone. To me, this is also a match where he was mentally off and one of the only times I've seen him not rise to the occassion mentally in a Wimbledon final. Alcaraz played great though.

I just don't think Djokovic can beat opponents by outlasting them like he could in 2013 or 2015. I do think there is a shift in his game now and he's being more aggressive off the forehand, and approaching trying to end the points quicker. I think that's where I notice the biggest difference in Djokovic from 8 years ago where did rely on that lot to beat his opponents.

Look at the forced error count both in Wimbledon and Cincy. I'm using tennisabstract because I'm lazy and don't feel like digging up the official stats. At Wimbledon, it's 72 to 51 in favor of Djokovic; at Cincy, it was 57 to 31 in favor of Djokovic. This means that Alcaraz is so fast, that he's able to track down shots from Djokovic that would normally be winners and get a racket on it. This keeps Djokovic's winner count down where it doesn't tell the full story which is what I was getting at before. So according to tennisabstract, Djokovic's winner + forced error count in Cincy was 78 and Alcaraz's was 73. This means Djokovic was a little more of the aggressor here where at Wimbledon, the edge went to Alcaraz.

I don't know about Djokovic playing low risk as possible. He definitely takes risks. He just takes less risk by keeping the ball deep with enough pace to keep the opponent back, until he opens up the court to go for the easier kill shot. He often hits more winners than his opponent, especially when he plays Nadal, Medvedev, etc. So yes he does play more high percentage but he also can just beat opponents from the baseline with better shotmaking yet efficient tennis. Also, have to add in that he approaches the net now more so he's hitting more winners up there than he used to. It's just a different ballgame against Alcaraz because of his speed, and defense to offense which is similar to Nadal and Djokovic at their peaks.

 

[mike danny]

The match that got away from Alcaraz. And people say he's already mentally tougher than Fed ever was LOL.

 

[RS]

I didn't get around to seeing this match but I heard it wasn't a good match as a common take.

 

[Jonesy]

Amazing match, Alcaraz tracking everything down made it for a hard match for Nole, yet the wolf in winter knows when to pounce and take the prey to the hole.

Young bull got eaten and i believe this match might have been the turn around soul stealer of this match up from now on.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Alcaraz managing to lose despite an enormous physical advantage highlights the lacking quality of his strokes.

 

[Third Serve]

Alcaraz managing to lose despite an enormous physical advantage highlights the lacking quality of his strokes.

Tactics more like.