Match Stats/Report - Federer vs del Potro, French Open semi-final, 2009

[Waspsting]

Roger Federer beat Juan Martin del Potro 3-6, 7-6(2), 2-6, 6-1, 6-4 in the French Open semi-final, 2009 on clay

Federer would go onto win his sole title at the event, beating Robin Soderling in the final to complete a Career Grand Slam and take his Slam count to a record tying 14. He’d go onto win Wimbledon shortly after to set a new record. He had been runner-up the previous 3 years. The two would meet again in the final of the US Open later in the year, with del Potro winning in 5 sets to claim his only Slam title and deny Federer a 6th consecutive title there

Federer won 159 points, del Potro 151

Serve Stats
Federer...
- 1st serve percentage (92/142) 65%
- 1st serve points won (67/92) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (26/50) 52%
- Aces 5, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (41/142) 29%

del Potro...
- 1st serve percentage (98/168) 58%
- 1st serve points won (72/98) 73%
- 2nd serve points won (30/70) 43%
- Aces 16
- Double Faults 6
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (53/168) 32%

Serve Pattern
Federer served...
- to FH 33%
- to BH 65%
- to Body 2%

del Potro served...
- to FH 17%
- to BH 79%
- to Body 4%

Return Stats
Federer made...
- 109 (17 FH, 92 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 3 Winners (1 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 37 Errors, comprising...
- 15 Unforced (2 FH, 13 BH)
- 22 Forced (5 FH, 17 BH)
- Return Rate (109/162) 67%

del Potro made...
- 100 (34 FH, 66 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 3 Winners (3 BH)
- 35 Errors, comprising...
- 21 Unforced (11 FH, 10 BH)
- 14 Forced (5 FH, 9 BH)
- Return Rate (100/141) 71%

Break Points
Federer 4/12 (8 games)
del Potro 5/13 (7 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding aces)
Federer 43 (23 FH, 12 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV, 5 OH)
del Potro 38 (19 FH, 12 BH, 1 FHV, 5 BHV, 1 OH)

Federer's FHs - 2 cc (1 runaround return), 1 cc/longline pass (a squash shot), 5 dtl (2 passes), 1 dtl/inside-out pass, 5 inside-out (1 not clean), 5 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc and 2 drop shots
- BHs - 7 dtl (1 return, 3 passes), 1 inside-out return, 1 longline pass, 3 drop shots and 1 running-down-drop-shot dtl pass at net

- 1 from a serve-volley point, a first volley BHV

- 3 OHs on the bounce

del Potro's FHs - 4 cc (1 pass - not clean), 3 dtl, 6 inside-out, 4 inside-in, 1 longline (bad bounce related), 1 running-down-drop-shot 'cc' at net (played parallel to net)
- BHs - 2 cc (1 at net), 5 dtl (2 at net - 1 pass), 2 inside-out (1 return pass), 1 inside-in return pass and 2 lobs (1 return - probably intentional)

- the OH was on the bounce

Errors (excluding returns and serves)
Federer 59
- 38 Unforced (25 FH, 11 BH, 1 FHV, 1 OH)
- 21 Forced (13 FH, 7 BH, 1 FHV)
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 46.1

del Potro 69
- 40 Unforced (22 FH, 17 BH, 1 OH)... the OH was on the bounce from the baseline
- 29 Forced (11 FH, 18 BH)... with 4 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 45.3

(Note 1: all half-volleys refer to such shots played at net. Half -volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke counts)

(Note 2: The 'Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is a measure of how aggressive of intent the average UE made was. 60 is maximum, 20 is minimum. This match has been scored using a four point scale - 2 defensive, 4 neutral, 5 attacking, 6 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Federer was...
- 26/37 (70%) at net, including...
- 3/8 (38%) serve-volleying, comprising...
- 3/5 (60%) off 1st serve and...
- 0/3 off 2nd serve
---
- 0/1 forced back

del Potro was...
- 19/34 (56%) at net, with...
- 0/2 forced back/retreated

Match Report
There’s a lot going on in this first rate match - both on serve-return and in court action - too much for there to be a single clear factor separating the two players, but how fresh they are after 3.5 hours of heavy action is the one that most takes the eye. By the fifth set, del Potro is moving wearily, slowly, the way you might think he always moves to see him walk, Federer not only isn’t, but remarkably seems to be moving better than at any other time in the match

And he’s moved well all match. Probably something mental as much as stamina on display here. Its an excellent match and the two players are close to even, which has come out beautifully in numbers with the two having very similar stats in a host of categories, making it fairly simple to isolate crucial differences. Of all things, its Federer’s BH that takes the cake

Very healthy serving and unreturends read Fed 29%, Delpo 32% sets the platform. There’s scope for improvement in both players returning, but the serving is very good. Delpo striking 16 aces is a remarkable feat on clay against one of the hardest to ace returners there is, and this is probably the best I’ve seen him serve. On any surface

In play -
Winners - Fed 43, Delpo 38
Errors Forced - Fed 29, Delpo 21
UEs - Fed 38, Delpo 40

Winner/UE differential - Fed +5, Delpo -2
Winners + errors forced/UE differential - Fed +34, Delpo +19

Top drawer figures. I can’t think of comparable ones for two baseliners going 5 sets on clay, particularly just falling short of both players with more winners than UEs

It’s a little flattering, in that its aided by high unreturned counts and there are significant portions of ugly play from both players (particularly mis-hits and shanks), but virtually no 5 setter (particularly on clay) has uniform quality of play

Both players do well off the FH, and end up near equal off it -
- Winners - Fed 23, Delpo 19
- FEs - Fed 13, Delpo 11
- UEs - Fed 25, Delpo 22

They have identical 12 BH winners to, but on the errors front -
- UEs - Fed match low 11, Delpo 17
- FEs - Fed match low 7, Delpo match high 18

Fed’s BH at +1, the only shot to have more winners than UEs. With FH the chief damage do’er for both players, that’s a function of great stability of the shot, not overly high damaging ability

The BH figures are a little deceptive if they suggest Fed getting better of stock BH play for a couple reasons

- Amidst stock rallies, most of Delpo’s FEs would be drawn by Fed’s FH inside-out (including passing errors) and, not his BH cc and credit for that should go to other wing

- high lot drawn by drop shots - a different category of shot. 4 to be exact (Delpo doesn’t play drop shots by contrast), so just sans the errors forced by drop shots, FEs virtually equal of that side. Fed’s use of drop shots is a key component of match (more on that later)

- Purely exchanging stock BHs (drives, top spins and slices), things are about even between two players - Delpo the harder hitter, Fed the more secure (for which UE counts are good indicator). Whatever the variables, very good job by Fed to keep the BH UEs down so low

With the two doing about equally well of the FH, it is his advantage on BH side of things that’s biggest difference between them

Last set alone -
Winners - Fed 13, Delpo 12
Errors Forced - Fed 6, Delpo 7
UEs - Fed 5, Delpo 8

Delpo might be lumbering some but there’s nothing wrong with his hitting at the end. If anything, he’s hitting better than his match-long average as he’s grown in confidence. It takes him awhile to warm to going for his bigger shots and he’s restrained at the start itself

More crucially, his in-count drops to 45% (rest of match its 63%), while Fed’s not only stays at his match-long level of 65%, but he serves his most damaging. Over rest of match, fat serving is Delpo’s biggest weapon

That’s another, simpler way of looking at the match. Delpo’s big serving compensating for his trailing in play. Fed wining 52% of his second serve points and 57% of Delpo’s is clear enough indicator of his superiority in play, but he has no answer for Delpo’s big first serve

When Delpo’s first serve percentage drops, he’s in trouble. There’s a hint of Delpo not returning well in there too - both in missing makeable returns and inability to punish normal second serves

Even so, first serve points won are tied at 73% won, with Fed having 65% - 58% lead in in-count. That doesn’t look good from Delpo’s point of view

 

[Waspsting]

Serve & Return
Good serving from both, in different ways. The returning has space for improvement

The most important shot is Delpo’s serve. Probably the best I’ve seen from him. He serves like you’d expect a man of his size to serve (and as he in fact, rarely does). Big bombs and aces

Getting 16 aces past Roger Federer is a tall order on any surface

Whatever isn’t an ace is brutish of pace and force. Usually not too wide though, and Fed can reach the balls without undue trouble. By that standard, Fed’s returning is a bit down from his own norm. Generally, he’s one of the very best at handling sheer power. Here, it stumps him some and he gives up plenty of FEs to makeable returns, which he at least is in habit of usually putting in play

Mostly block BH returning from Fed (Delpo serves there 79% of the time)

High 32% unreturneds is Delpo’s reward for his showing. In parts of match where he’s on top, its this and his serve that keeps him so. He isn’t broken until Set 4, Game 4 - that’s 15 holds from the start (and doesn’t’ face any break points after his understandably nervy start of first 2 service games)

Delpo just about maximizes what he gets out of the serve. It’d be expecting a lot for it to continue throughout 5 sets, and the drop in the decider leaves him vulnerable

Fed often returns short, which brings Delpo forward to strike the ball. It isn’t clear if he’s doing it deliberately or not. Deliberate short BH blocks and slices make up considerable portion of Fed’s game in rallies, and this is the returning equivalent

Is he doing it deliberately? Though missing lot of returns, he doesn’t seem out of control when making them. Bringing Delpo forward and forcing him to get down for his shots is also part of Fed’s plot. Whatever the answer, it doesn’t work (here, and usually in rallies either). Delpo moves forward and punishes the short balls, whether he has to stoop for them or not

The most amusing, unclear of intent return though is Delpo’s, who BH lob winners a 2nd serve-volleying Fed. Serve is wide, Delpo’s a little stretched to reach it, he clearly sees Fed coming in… and seems to hit under the ball. To purposefully lob it? Or because he’s stretched out and just trying to get ball in play? Its impossible to tell for sure. Shot is so rare that one tends to think accident, but just watching it (many times), it looks more deliberate than not. If so, its one of the most creative returns in history - just perfect

On flip side, Fed serves smartly well, Delpo has plenty of scope for returning better

Delpo usually takes returns from well-back position (Fed by contrast, is near baseline), from where, he has good look at even Fed’s first serves, which are considerably slower than his own bombs. Fed doesn’t’ serve too wide. From his position, Delpo would look to be able to put more returns in play than he does

21/35 Delpo return errors have been marked UEs - most of them against decent first serves that he’s taking from very far back. Not easy for UEs, but by definition, not hard either to put in play

From Fed’s point of view, his serving is smart. Doing just enough to get the errors, without lowering in-count by going for more. He wins 23 straight first serve points at one stage with contained serving. When in particular trouble or in tiebreak or in 5th set, he serves wider and more damagingly (in objective sense). Why risk that that when the safer serves are winning points anyway?

Its not just Delpo’s consistency of return that has room for improvement

Play - Baseline & Net
Early on, Fed looks to keep the ball low. It’s his normal tactic against very tall players. With moving opponent side-to-side not being his strong suit, he likes to jerk them forward and back and Delpo’s thick tree build looks like it might be vulnerable to it

It isn’t. Delpo handles the low balls comfortably. Doesn’t even have to slice them too often, just biffs them back with his BH. Fed also draws Delpo to net with still shorter slices - which works to an extent, with Fed knocking passing winners away, Delpo less often winning the points by drawing passing errors

Delpo’s movements aren’t what you’d think to look at him. He looks (and walks) like he might be the slowest of players. He’s quick enough that if that’s what your counting on, your likely to be disappointed

But his movement is iffy enough to tempt a player to try to draw errors from him by hitting slightly wide, which raises a second problem. He can be caught out by such balls, but if they’re not wide enough, his hitting takes center stage - and his hitting is hard

Both players go for slightly (or more than slightly) wide FH cc’s to test the other. Delpo occasionally is stumped by it, but is apt to hammer the ball when he isn’t. The errors he draws from Fed with wide FH cc’s are categorically harder than the ones Fed draws from him

As match goes on, and Delpo takes lead, he gains in confidence. Initially, he mostly strikes his BHs hard. By about second set, stock FH joins the party (as oppposed to attacking FHs, which are always powerfully struck)

Serve +1 is a weapon for both players. Delpo dispatching FHs, Fed at his best when following big FH inside-outs to net

Fed’s deliberate short play extends to drop shots. Some of the finest you’ll see. He’s got 5 winners, forces 4 errors, very rarely misses a drop shot and rarely leaves a ball Delpo can reach with comfort. They probably don’t hurt in tiring Delpo out, which becomes important as match enters its later stages

The numbers, as accounted earlier, are first rate but a little flattering to action. At best, both players hit with power - Delpo a bit more, Fed hitting wider. At its worst, its scraggy stuff, with lots of mishits and shanks. Its breezy, which doesn’t help. Both players let OHs bounce, which for Fed, one of the most confident smashers around, is unusual

Strong FH play from both players, with sound, high percentage powerful + slightly wide cc shots moving dynamic from neutral to attacking. The neutral hitting is good, from both, Delpo more powerful when things go up from there, Fed placing his shots better (and Fed moving better to aid his defence). All comes out near even - Delpo forces a bunch of errors from Fed’s FH through brute force

Stock FH winners -
- Fed 1 cc, 3 dtl, 5 inside-out, 5 inside-in based
- Del 3 cc, 3 dtl, 6 inside-out, 4 inside-in

Similar distributions, both excelling at back-away shots. Fed’s 23-19 overall lead comes up from passes and a couple of drop shots

FH UEs - Fed 25, Delpo 22
FH FEs - Fed 13, Delpo 11

With Fed’s movement advantage (and touch on the drop shot), Delpo probably has better of hitting to keep things so even in all areas

Delpo has hitting advantage of the BH, though as we’ve seen, Fed’s turns out be the most secure shot on show. He’s at his best mixing in slices with the drives. Delpo just biffs drives

 

[Waspsting]

BH winners - 12 apiece
UEs - Fed 11, Delpo 17
FEs - Fed 7, Delpo 17

Big advantage for Fed on the errors. Again, its touch on the drop shot and movement where Fed has better of it. Delpo’s the bigger hitter

Strange stat is Delpo with 0 volleying errors (UE or FE), given he’s 19/34 at net. Fed’s got 9 passing winners, Delpo 4 running-down-drop shots at net ones and Delpo’s 0/2 forced back from net. When he comes in on his own terms, Delpo’s very good on the volley

Fed’s far more successful at net, winning 23/29 when rallying forward. That’s more about the approach shot than the volley. Comes in behind very powerful shots, particularly FH inside-outs, often off the third ball. It’s a great way to attack safely… a lot better than going for third ball winners with the same shot

There’s no shortage of great shots, but 2 stand out as unique. The first is Delpo’s probably intentional lob return winner. The second is less memorable, but just as rare

Late in the 5th, Fed smacks an attacking FH inside-out. Delpo steps away and whacks it FH inside-in for a winner to open court. Very, very rarely does anyone take on BH dtl winner attempt against Fed’s attacking FH inside-out and I can’t think of anyone doing this to it. Fed for one seems to know it and even amidst 5th set tensions, grins at what just happened

Fed’s at his best in the fifth when he hits very cleanly, which brings out the extent to which he hadn’t for rest of match. That’s the drawback of the match, despite the numbers. Lot of mishits and ill-timed shots from both players at different points along it, somewhat ugly

UEs distribution -
- Neutral - Fed 24, Delpo 25
- Attacking - Fed 5, Delpo 9
- Winner Attempts - Fed 9, Delpo 6

Not much in it. You could say Fed’s slight lead in winners almost canelled out by small trailing in winner attempt UEs. Neutral UEs all but equal

It’s the attacking stuff where Fed has biggest advantage - a considerable lead in errors (as in, he has fewer, and a considerable lead in forcing errors (+8). That’s a combo of things at play - Delpo being relatively easier to force an error out of, Fed’s greater success at net (he wins 70%, Delpo 56%) and the drop shots (which force 4 errors, unanswered by Delpo)

With considerable variance in play across the match, overall picture emerging is
- equality of FHs
- Fed more stable of BH

… and Fed’s net play and drop shots overcoming Delpo’s hitting advantage (slight of the FH, a bit more than that off the BH)

Match Progression
Slow start (literally and otherwise) from Delpo. While Fed loses 1 point in holding twice, Delpo survives 10 and 12 point holds. Then things do a 180 - Delpo loses 2 points in his remaining 2 holds, while Fed’s broken twice and comes out of 0-40 to hold the other

Big serve does wonders for Delpo, He’s at net quite a bit, drawn there by Fed about half the time. Powerful stock BH looks good but it’s the even more powerful FHs that do damage. When he gets it slightly wide, Fed can’t resist the force

Just the 4 UEs from Fed in the 3 games he’s in trouble on serve. The worst of them is a horror OH miss, but that’s in the game he holds. Otherwise, largely beat down by Delpo off the ground and his scope to get into return games curbed by big serves. Its in last game of the set that Delpo pulls off his BH lob return winner against the serve-volleying Fed. Only God and Delpo know for sure if its intentional, but looks more likely to have been than not. A shot to remember, whatever the case

Second set is even. 12 holds, no break points, just 1 deuce game (the opener). Big serving from Delpo gets him a host of unreturneds (including aces). Fed’s serve isn’t as formidable, but he does enough with it to draw errors from a well-back Delpo. Fed wins 22/23 first serve points

Poor tiebreak from Delpo, starting with retreating to a mediocre lob instead of smashing it, though it turns out, he doesn’t take smashes out the air all match. Missing stock groundstrokes lose him a bunch of points, Fed throws in a FH dtl winner and takes it comfortably 7-2

Third set is a choppy affair from Fed, with lots of mishits and not well timed shots even when he doesn’t get it wrong. He’s broken twice - first opens the set and is just a bad game (3 FH UEs), which Delpo ends with a not-clean FH cc passing winner

Second break is towards the end, which is choppy from both players with the errors and mishits. In between, Fed surives15-40 to hold. Delpo meanwhile continues to prosper with is serve. A memorable FH running-down-drop-shot cc winner at net so fine that its parallel to the net is the shot of the set

More struggling play in set 4, and its Delpo who stats mishitting, mistiming and missing more groundies, though its not as one sided as the 6-1 score might suggest. Delpo’s in-count drops to 50% (it was 67% in the previous 3 sets). Fed by contrast, makes 17/23 first serves or 74%

Delpo’s 3 games last 14, 12 and 8 points - he holds only the first of them

The last set is the best of the bunch. The slight signs of tiring that Delpo had shown in the previous one become more pronounced, and he’s slow to move in general, with extreme thrown in. Now and then, he races to the ball as fast as at any point in the match, and less often than that, is completely slothful

Fed, on a high from the breadstick and breaking to open the set, takes off. For the first time in the match, he’s really zipping about (and he hasn’t moved badly at anytime), twinkle footed, backing away to hit attacking FHs all the time, defending more stoutly than before. If anything, he becomes overconfident and starts trying to hit back away FH winners against deep returns (and eventually, starts nailing those too)

He hits cleanly - which brings home how much he hadn’t even when delivering the breadstick. For that matter, so does Delpo. With tide turning, Delpo starts letting loose with his groundies and hits some extremely powerful shots. And needs to, with his in-count staying at low 45%. By contrast, Fed’s saved his best serving for last - good, wide serves, not the in-swing zone and just slightly wide stuff he’d dished out most of match

5/10 games are deuces - and 2 that aren’t are breaks

Fed breaks to open, with his FH inside-ins doing damage, but it’s a crisp BH cc that finishes the job. He’s down 15-30 next game, but comes away without alarm, winning remainingg points with drop shot, a strong serve and another FH inside-in winner

Games 3-5 are all deuces with no break point. Delpo delivers his FH inside-in winner to Fed’s potential point ending FH inside-out in game 3, to Fed’s amusement. Fed pulls off a stunning FH squash shot pass winner in the next game to hold

Players trade breaks soon after to leave Fed ahead 4-3 - good games by both returners, with Delpo the server stumbling a bit more

Fed has chances to end the match with a break, where he hits a number of good returns, including a BH inside-out winner, but Delpo hangs in, until Fed takes on and misses a BH dtl. No problems closing though, as Fed wraps up with a hold to 15, finishing with consecutive third ball FH winners - the first inside-in, the next inside-out

Summing up, excellent match both for storyline and play. Del Potro scores with a big, heavy serve and powerful groundstrokes off both sides, but his returning has room for improvement - both in coping with good serves that he takes from well back, and attacking normal ones that he can take a good swing at. Given how well he hits off the ground, he seems capable of the latter more than he’s willing to go for. His movements are a dangerous lottery for his opponent - he might slack off and miss not getting into position, or he might rush about - and no sure way of telling which or when. Good movements for his size on the whole. And he tires eventually

Federer attacks with the FH and by coming to net, while mixing in slices with drives off the BH. Both are successful - his FH does damage, he’s a hit at net and his BH is the safest thing in the match. He’s slightly out-hit off both sides by his powerhouse opponent, but compensates by using drop shots exquisite drop shots off both sides, and making most of his movement advantage

While the tennis is very good on the whole, its not uniformly so. Plenty of choppy runs of mistimed shots from both players. Usually not at the same time

Biggest factor in outcome would be energy. Del Potro tires along normal lines as match goes on, and his biggest weapon, the serve, stumbles along with his movement in latter part, though his hitting remains very strong. Federer by contrast, defies biology by being at his fleetest and best towards the end, when he’s zipping all about the court to attack or defend and has much the better of the final stages

Stats for fourth round match between Robin Soderling and Rafael Nadal - Match Stats/Report - Soderling vs Nadal, French Open fourth round, 2009 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[RS]

Better match than Wim 09 F and USO 09 F.

 

[RS]

@abmk

I think you will like this