Yeah that sounds cute. Lets talk about that.
What Nadal has to do is win more than 50% of the return games. In how many RGs he has done that? One. That is 2008. Peak Claydal I agree.
But I think it would be safe to presume that you understand that for Nadal to win more than 50% return games, Sampras needs to lose more than 50% service games. Now Sampras being a GLORIFIED SERVEBOT disagrees that he will lose more than 50% service games.
Sampras' worst RG performances were the three times he got out in the first round. His service games won in those matches?
75%, 89% and 65%. And these were his worst performances. No Peak or Prime Sampras there.
Our Wimbledon 2008 fan here wants to have Peak Sampras vs Peak Nadal. And you know what Peak Sampras even on clay holds 85% of his service games.
Now you will play the Clay GOAT card and point to the French Open 2008 Final where Federer clearly wasn't peak or was he?
And if that FO 2008 isn't cherry picking then so isn't FO2008 first round Nadal-Bellucci 7-5 6-3 6-1.
So if Peak Nadal couldn't win more than 50% return games against Bellucci how is he gonna win it against Peak Sampras?
1. I said Nadal has an outside chance of winning one set
2. We don't know the effect of having just one player serving the entire match will have on return stats and hold stats. Does it tire out the returner faster or the server faster? How will it effect tactics etc? We just don't know.
3. Nadal has not one, but at least 3 chances of winning one set. Now that will be hard to do over any set, but given he has 3 chances, that raises his chance of doing it at least once.
4. He has to win at least 58% of return games in just one set. Given that he's won sets by a 6-2 6-1 or 6-0 scoreline numerous times in the past, that is enough evidence to prove he is at least in with a shot. Although, 6-2, 6-1, and 6-0 are all only at least 3 or 4 service games from the opponent per set, which is different from doing it in a set when the opponent is going to serve anywhere between 6-12 times.
5. Maybe i'm seriously underrating how good Sampras was on clay at his peak. But given, Nadal has destroyed people with similar service hold percentages to Sampras', it's not going to be a reliable indicator of what's going to happen in a match against Nadal on clay. Right now I'm wondering what are Federer and Djokovic's hold percentages on clay against the field vs hold percentages for vs Nadal on clay. Surely there's going to be a big difference.