Rafa's five-set record since 2015
- Thread starter BeatlesFan
- Start date
aman92
Legend
Losses in 2015-16 were purely down to his mentality. He has lost all confidence in his game at that point and was way too passive in the big points. Others are close ones and hard to say where he went wrong. Against Djokovic and Muller, serving second in the prolonged 5th set definitely took it's toll I reckon
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
I'd be careful about going by length of matches. I'd want to know actual time playing points. Nadal wastes an unbelievable amount of time.
ForumMember
Hall of Fame
It is irrelevant because many or may be most of these losses came against ppl older to him and all three of his wins came against players much younger or younger to him.
Three wins - Zverev, Dimitrov and Delpo
List of players who handed over these 7 defeats include players Federer (37 in less than a month), Muller - 35, Fognini 31, Djokovic - 31, Verdasco - 34.
Fedforever
Hall of Fame
It's always been strange to me how people assumed the Federer of 1998 to 2002 just "disappeared". He's still in there somewhere.
merlinpinpin
Hall of Fame
This happens, unfortunately (and it actually happened quite often without Hawkeye). Heck, that very same year, Fed very probably lost AO due to a bad call that would have given him double BP in the fifth in his semi vs Safin.
merlinpinpin
Hall of Fame
Why should we? These seasons happened, so why should we turn a blind eye? I don't see many VB fans asking for 2013 to be taken out of the H2H because "Roger was injured that year, so would be more fair, no?"
And as others have said, the trend has been going on in 2017 and 2018 too anyway...
TearTheRoofOff
G.O.A.T.
This. I haven't noticed physical limitations / fatigue play much of a role. It would open an interesting can of worms to suggest, for example, that Rafael Nadal was physically outlasted by Gilles Muller. There are potentially other patterns at play here, or even none.
FHtennisman
Professional
Nope he was 3-2 in 5 setters vs Fed and we all know how close at least 2 of them were with Rome 06 where Fed had several Mps and Wimby 08 where it went deep into the 5th set with Fed having a BP too.
He lost AO 2017 not because of what happened in previous years, as he was in form and had already played a couple of 5 setters in the tourney - it was because Fed conquered his mental demons and was zoned after 1-3 in the fifth set and wasn't losing that final.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
FHtennisman
Professional
So this is my analysis of the whole situation:
I agree with you that despite the trend starting since AO 2012 when he lost in 5 to Novak and then proceeded to lose to Rosol at Wimby is where the trend started, but he also snapped that by winning in 5 vs Novak at RG in 2013 so the appropriate mark would be the 2015 USO since when he hasn't recovered his 5 set record.
Like others have mentioned, it's crucial to differentiate between the years in which Nadal has had this record: 2015 and 2016 are known for years where he had a loss of confidence and injuries, 2017 and 2018 are where his resurgence began and has continued. In 2015 and 2016, we have to remember that Nadal was pretty darn mediocre on HCs, in fact from February 2014 to August 2017, Nadal didn't even win a single HC tournament such was his slump on the surface. He was struggling significantly on HCs, therefore there is no surprise to me that he would be vulnerable against the likes of Fognini and Verdasco, players who can hit big with their groundies and are reknown for their shot making as well as their short fuse mentality. IMO the 1-3 record in 5 sets in 2015 and 2016 isn't characteristic of Rafa's career on HCs and it's more a resemblance of his form in those two years where he was playing more like a standard top 10, top 20 player than the ATG we know as Rafael Nadal.
Moving onto 2017 and 2018, a record of 3-4 is still off from what Rafa was accomplishing in 5 setters when in his early to mid twenties but margins are so close that a single point can decide a match and turn a losing record into a winning record (after all the difference between 3-4 and 4-3 is the outcome of one match!). In these past 18 months, Rafa has done a lot better on both grass and HCs than in the preceding 2 years. The 5 setters he lost to the likes of Pouille, Verdasco and Fognini, would most likely be victories either in straights or in 4 sets for Rafa in 2017 form. So on the surface, it seems surprising that Rafa has a losing record again when he's improved but once the matches are analysed there is no surprise as to why he has lost them. He lost the AO Final to Fed and that was hard fought, but eventually the better player prevailed similarly to the outcome of the 2018 Wimby SF. The loss to Cilic and Muller maybe deleterious to Rafa's record but they also display fighting and competitive spirit, in the case of the former, Rafa only relented when the opponent had the upper hand in the fifth set and in the latter, it was commendable for Rafa to battle back from 0-2 sets down and to push it so deep into the 5th set but for his opponent to eventually come through.
With these defeats, often you can simplify and say one factor is more important than others but that's incorrect IMO, a defeat on grass for Rafa is a lot different than a defeat on the slow HCs of the US Open. So, for me his record has declined due to several reasons which I'll go through now: a permanent drop in playing level on HCs, let's say that the Rafa that almost defeated peak Novak at 2012 AO and had his best year on HCs in 2013 is 100% in form, the Rafa from post 2014 AO - 2016 was about 60-70%; he has since recovered his level to about 80-85%, which is good enough to defeat the players that he was losing to between 2015-2016 in slams but not good enough to beat the very best players. A second reason is his physical decline, since the back injury in the 2014 AO Final, I've lost count of the injuries he's suffered throughout the years and without a doubt those have impacted his playing style, as he realised in 2015-16, his old style of grinding players from the baseline wouldn't work as this was the first time in over a decade that he didn't win a slam. This prompted him to adopt a more aggressive style which has helped him against the general field off-clay, but against the best players he's become more vulnerable to opponents who have a better attacking game and that has been exploited by the likes of Federer and Cilic at the recent AOs. A physical decline often leads to a mental decline too and this has manifested itself most notably in Nadal's approach to 5th sets; once upon a time, he could rely on the fact that he knew he would not be the one that makes the error in the rally and that he could not be outlasted but physically he can't do that anymore, he knows that opponents, especially the best have the self belief and the game to overpower him and that he must attack - leading to a spiral of self doubt on his own service games and therefore an increased vulnerability that simply wasn't present in Nadal's physical prime. Lastly, I don't think Muller and a declined Novak would have beat the Nadal between 2006-2010 at Wimbledon, he just had too much game at that time and was confident against everyone once the second week of Wimbledon began - his physical decline, mainly the dodgy knees have led to a string of failures since 2011. So in all, a combination of factors, but mainly a loss of form/level on both HCs and grass, physical decline which has led to mental decline and the reinvention of his game has left him open to getting ramshackled by top players who are better at attacking than he is.
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
5th set records are just a ***** to analyze.
Nishikori is great cause he goes 5 sets against mugs and doesn't go 5 in close matches or when he's outclassed.
Yadayadayada
What I might want to do is look at %of points won in 5th sets compared to earlier in the match, and %points won in in that match compared to the usual% of points won vs players in that ranking range, maybe even look t betting odds prior to the match.
Nishikori is great cause he goes 5 sets against mugs and doesn't go 5 in close matches or when he's outclassed.
Yadayadayada
What I might want to do is look at %of points won in 5th sets compared to earlier in the match, and %points won in in that match compared to the usual% of points won vs players in that ranking range, maybe even look t betting odds prior to the match.
kevaninho
Hall of Fame
It's also interesting to note that in the same timespan Federer's 5-set record has massively improved:
Before 2016: 23-19 (54%)
Since: 7-2 (78%)
Fed's pedestrian 5-set record was literally the worst among players with 5 or more Slams.
So you compare a 2 year span to the rest of his career to get a percentage ? ... Makes sense...
kevaninho
Hall of Fame
How was the USO 2015 a biggie? His form was rubbish then. He wasn't expecting to do anything that year.
Ill agree with the rest though. He definitely should've won those 2 Wimbledon matches, and as for the Cilic match, if the injury was a factor then it has to be accepted.
Only Nadal really knows that.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Not to mention that in previous years he wouldn't have even played 5 setters with Anderson, Nishikori, old Youzhny and Tiafoe.So you compare a 2 year span to the rest of his career to get a percentage ? ... Makes sense...
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Um... because he was up two sets and a break to Fognini, a guy who is hardly a world beater on a tennis court. If you don't think that's a biggie, consult the world's press the day after that match. The New York Times never puts tennis on its front page unless they're reporting a final. The Nadal-Fog match was on their front page. Any time Nadal loses in a slam when he's up two sets to love, it's a biggie. Just as Fed losing to Anderson last week from the same position is a biggie.
Whether Nadal's form in 2015 was "rubbish" or not is a moot point.
eldanger25
Hall of Fame
The argument for mental decline is that he only has one big fifth set victory over Roger/Novak this decade - 2013 RG.
The argument for physical decline is that in a lot of these, he's down 2 sets to 1 and forcing a fifth set, and when he loses in the fifth, it's rarely by more than a break of serve (or, in the Pouille case, a tiebreak). Takes mental strength to get it to five, and takes mental strength to then either hold the lead or stay close until the end.
Still, he used to be able to close these out - shows how vanishingly thin the gap is between these guys sometimes.
The argument for physical decline is that in a lot of these, he's down 2 sets to 1 and forcing a fifth set, and when he loses in the fifth, it's rarely by more than a break of serve (or, in the Pouille case, a tiebreak). Takes mental strength to get it to five, and takes mental strength to then either hold the lead or stay close until the end.
Still, he used to be able to close these out - shows how vanishingly thin the gap is between these guys sometimes.
metsman
G.O.A.T.
Obviously Rafa is a shell of himself physically because he had to actually overcome tough competition to win his slams unlike someone we know. Shows you how MEANINGLESS the 17 AO win was. Rafa gets schooled in 5th sets by Poullie and MUGnini and somehow Fed is sooooo great for finally beating him in a big match for the first time in 10 years and needing Rafa to choke to do it. ROFLMAO
FHtennisman
Professional
Federer's record has improved with age.
ibbi
G.O.A.T.
Well, he played 22 in 11 years, and has then played 10 in less than 3! So I would say age and general loss of level is generally playing a part, because in the olden days a lot of these matches would probably never have gone to 5 sets to begin with.
Certainly those ones in 15/16 to Fognini and Verdasco and Pouille, the guy just couldn't hold his friggin' serve, and so was never going to be able to compete with seed or close to seed level players on their day.
The one to Muller last year is hardly a negative. Considering how good a grass court season that guy was having in 2017 I would say the fact that Rafa on a grass court even got it to 5 sets was pretty tremendous, as in the years prior he'd probably have been packing his bags a lot quicker than that. That match and this years semi final both ended for similar reasons. He was serving second against a superior server in the fifth set, and eventually the pressure just got too much.
The fact that both these fifth sets were extended ones is testament to the qualities you praise him for. Again, they were both late in the day/under the roof, conditions were not favourable to him at all, and he still made wars out of each occasion.
Certainly those ones in 15/16 to Fognini and Verdasco and Pouille, the guy just couldn't hold his friggin' serve, and so was never going to be able to compete with seed or close to seed level players on their day.
The one to Muller last year is hardly a negative. Considering how good a grass court season that guy was having in 2017 I would say the fact that Rafa on a grass court even got it to 5 sets was pretty tremendous, as in the years prior he'd probably have been packing his bags a lot quicker than that. That match and this years semi final both ended for similar reasons. He was serving second against a superior server in the fifth set, and eventually the pressure just got too much.
The fact that both these fifth sets were extended ones is testament to the qualities you praise him for. Again, they were both late in the day/under the roof, conditions were not favourable to him at all, and he still made wars out of each occasion.
Hewitt struggled with injuries and had hip surgery. He was never the same player.
Nadal never had a surgery in his life.
FHtennisman
Professional
What Federer has accomplished at the very late age is an anomaly, not the norm. Other players are likely to do worse given in the same circumstance.
FHtennisman
Professional
Mustard
Bionic Poster
That's excellent for Federer, but he's a different style of player with a different dynamic. Federer was a headcase as a youngster and got wiser as he got older. Nadal and Hewitt were mentally strong early, extremely physical and competitive, and lived on the edge in that regard. In their younger years, Nadal and Hewitt were very clutch at the crucial moments like saving break points and winning important points and sets of matches. In later years, they were less reliable with this compared to before, and that is a sign of aging. It happens in other sports, too. You see a dominant champion play and win consecutive tournaments with ease when they were younger, and they suddenly get tired and can't do it when they are older without losing consistency.
False, Nadal has had surgery, albeit not because of tennis. And he's had plenty of injuries over the years because of tennis, as well having to slightly alter his style of play from 2006 because of a career threatening foot injury.
Appendix removal? That's nothing compare to a hip or back surgery.
Nadal is the only member of the big 4 who never had a surgery.
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
Bender
G.O.A.T.
- He hits harder these days but has reduced stamina
- He plays more offensive these days because his defence is nowhere near what it used to be
- His consistency is far less granted than it used to be as he can't practice as much as he used to
Nadal has a pretty complete arsenal as well, but tends to rely too heavily on his core tools when the things get tough, which can allow big hitters to to get into a rhythm; something you don't want to be doing.
We saw Nadal tap into his other options a bit more this Wimbledon against Delpo (directional changes, drop shots, more net play, a more aggressive return), and I hope that sets a precedent for future tough matches he may have to play, but given his history I doubt it. Every time he brings out something new, be it a flat serve (USO 2010), heavy slicing (USO 2013), or offensive ROS (Montreal 2013), they tend to be flavours of the tournament rather than a permanent addition to his game. Come the next tournament he's back to sledgehammering away topspin forehands until he's forced to try something different.
And that is a huge shame because it's not like Rafa's bad at any of those things. Rafa's arsenal is not like Djokovic's in that they are almost perpetually great (eg ROS), or consistently relatively weak (net play, including overhead) at certain shots with only modest margins for improvement or decline. If anything he's shown that he's actually very good at all of these things, which is why he can be so infuriating to watch.
Watching Rafa can be like watching a guy stocking up on guns in prep for war, then deliberately heading out with nothing but a trusty handgun when war actually were declared.
kevaninho
Hall of Fame
No, form does matter. Its more of a shock if the player is one of the favourites then losing early. Nadal Wimbledon 2012 is what we call a shock. A player who had reached 2011 final, and who won the tournament the last 2 times he played it.
Nadals 2015 was the worst year hes ever been on the tour, it was only a 'shock' to the media and casual fans because of his name in tennis.
He had already lost to Fognini a few times that year ( even on clay ) so it wasn't the biggest shock ever. Add to the fact that Nadals run up to the USO consisted of losing to Nishikori in Canada ( a guy he had never lost to in 8 meeting previous ), and then in Cinci he lost to Lopez.
Im not interested in what the press say is a shock, any decent tennis follower knows that Nadal was in his worst ever form and confidence going into the open.
He had no expectations himself either.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Yes, he went full grinder, because of a "career threatening foot injury".
What a ****.
octobrina10
Talk Tennis Guru
Fed's knee issue had nothing to do with tennis. He hurt himself while preparing a bath for his kids, that's why he had knee surgery (at the beginning of Febr. 2016).
Last edited:
octobrina10
Talk Tennis Guru
Yes, he went full grinder, because of a "career threatening foot injury".
What a ****.
This Fed devotee (quoted) is yet again trying to confuse readers.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
He wasn't in a slump anymore in early 2017.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
Tennis_Hands
Banned
D
Deleted member 757377
Guest
Nadal vs Federer/Djokovic:
before 2015: 46-29
since 2015: 2-13
before 2015: 46-29
since 2015: 2-13
His serve fully recovered in the clay season of 2017.
Don't you remember Rafa started serving really well in clay season 2017?
French 2017 was his 1st slam in 3 years.
Last edited:
Mr Feeny
Hall of Fame
Dear Nadal devotee,
Thank you for your RESPONSE. I agree with the poster you quoted and can certainly understand that you're easily confused.
Thank you and regards
mike danny
Bionic Poster
While true, the knees are much more crucial for tennis than the appendix.
You can still play tennis with no appendix, but you can't play tennis with no knees, regardless of how you injured them.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Of course he was going to look better on clay than on other surfaces. That has always been the case with Nadal in his career. Might as well call every early season in which he didn't win the AO a slump.
Well, I wouldn't call it a comeback until winning slam for a players with caliber of Nadal or Djokovic.
He lost to Federer in 5 sets but he was losing 5 sets for 3 years prior to that against players like Fognini or Verdasco.
And remember Rafa was struggling with his serves from 2014 lower back injuries?
That's regardless of clay season or not.
That took 3 full year to recover.
Last edited:
FHtennisman
Professional
Whether Federer was a headache or not early on didn't matter as even during his peak period between ATP Finals 2003 and ATP Finals 2007, he played in 7 5 setters, with a record of 4-3 in them, which is consistent with a career record of 30-21. So his record during his best period wasn't exceptional and it's only improved recently to an acceptable standard.
Regarding Nadal, I've already explained why his record has been poor in my post from yesterday.
FHtennisman
Professional
Yes but your legs and therefore your knees are integral to playing tennis, no? If they aren't working properly, you can't play tennis properly especially at a world class level - hence why that surgery does matter.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
That's baloney.
Nadal's serve was perfectly fine at the 2017 AO, including the final. Fed was just refurning it very well all year long.
Verdasco and Fognini didn't beat Rafa in 5 sets in a slam final, so not comparable at all. Rafa is incredibly hard to beat in a slam final. Fed needed to summon his very best to come back from a break down in the 5th set.
Sorry, Rafa was fully recovered at the start of 2017. His misfortune was that so was Fed. Without him Rafa would have won the AO and the Sunshine Double in early 2017.
Tennis_Hands
Banned
octobrina10
Talk Tennis Guru
Hmm. You thanked me on behalf of the poster I replied to. It makes me think that Fed devotees' activities are coordinated.
octobrina10
Talk Tennis Guru
If a player didn't damage his knee while playing tennis, there will be no risk of a recurrence of the injury while playing.
Similar threads
- Poll
