ATP Live Race:
1. Nadal - 5040
2. Zverev - 3495
3. Federer - 3360
4. Del Potro - 3020
5. Thiem - 2985
6. Cilic - 2370
19. Djokovic - 1055
We are halfway through the season and it looks like we have a good idea of who the contenders now are. I think it's safe to say it's between Nadal, Federer, Zverev, and Del Potro. Cilic is a long shot, Thiem isn't going to be a factor, and we can safely rule Djokovic out.
Nadal now leads Federer by 1680 points. Very sizable, but far from insurmountable. For reference, Nadal was leading Federer by 2870 points at the same point last year. So Federer has done relatively better by about 1200 points, which is very significant. If Federer can win Wimbledon (or even make the final) with Nadal not improving on his performance from last year, we're going to be looking at another very close race.