ATP Live Race:
1. Federer - 2545
2. Cilic - 1345
8. Dimitrov - 760
27. Nadal - 360
70. Djokovic - 190
Two of Federer's three biggest threats aren't even in the top 25 right now.
If they're not in the top 10 post-French Open, that's when I might rule them out.I think it's safe to say neither Nadal or Djokovic are a threat for YE#1 this year...
Exactly what I've been trying to argue though spelling out 3 like you do makes it an even better argument. Cheers@Chanwan is definitely right that Federer's chances of finishing year-end #1 were a lot higher heading into the Montreal final last year than they are now or were prior to Indian Wells (when the discussion took place). Why?
1. More than half of the season was complete by then; it's barely started now. That means that it was almost mathematically certain that nobody other than Nadal could take over from him as year-end #1. Now, if we rule out everyone but Nadal, we are doing so in large part on the basis of past performance. But given that Federer is more than 36 and a half, there is at any moment a fairly significant chance that he could get injured or lose form dramatically. Given that, we have no good reason to believe that Nadal is the only one who could challenge him. Federer at his best would be too good over a season for Cilic or Del Potro. Federer at 36/37 might not be.
2. There's still time for Djokovic to recover his form. In 2017 prior to Montreal, there wasn't. And Djokovic on-form can certainly challenge the Federer of 2018 even if Federer maintains his form.
3. The rankings are mostly decided on the basis of 14 events (four Slams, one year-end event, nine Masters 1000). Yes, the 500s and 250s make a difference, but the bulk of the rankings are decided by those 14. At the time of the Montreal final last year, Nadal had already got a points tally for the first nine of those 14 events (three Slams and six MS 1000 events), while four of the remaining five were ones at which he doesn't usually excel (the US Open being the exception) and three were ones that he'd never won (Cincinnati being the one he had). True, many of the events between now and Canada are ones in which Nadal did well last year, but he is likely to do well in them again. And in 2017, it was 100% certain that Nadal would not do especially well at Wimbledon or Montreal. Now, there is at least a chance that he will do well in them in 2018. And there is also a chance that Federer will do worse than winning Wimbledon and making the Montreal final (and that he won't win Miami or Halle).
Basically, what changed in Montreal was not that Federer lost to Zverev but that he picked up an injury that meant he had to miss Cincinnati, couldn't challenge for the #2 seeding at the US Open, and wasn't fully fit at that event.
I've already addressed this. A loss of form or injury in 2017 meant that Nadal would finish YE#1, because he was leading the race over Federer at every point after the claycourt season and had already shown himself to be the second best hardcourt player of the year. A loss of form or injury in 2018 still leaves a remote chance of Federer finishing YE#1 because (1) Federer has a significant lead over everyone else already (2) Nadal and Djokovic look to be in bad shape already, with Djokovic looking even worse than he did last year and Nadal looking significantly worse (3) His other biggest rivals are Del Potro and Cilic, and with Del Potro being as likely to get injured as Federer is and Cilic never even being in the top 2 yet.@Chanwan is definitely right that Federer's chances of finishing year-end #1 were a lot higher heading into the Montreal final last year than they are now or were prior to Indian Wells (when the discussion took place). Why?
1. More than half of the season was complete by then; it's barely started now. That means that it was almost mathematically certain that nobody other than Nadal could take over from him as year-end #1. Now, if we rule out everyone but Nadal, we are doing so in large part on the basis of past performance. But given that Federer is more than 36 and a half, there is at any moment a fairly significant chance that he could get injured or lose form dramatically. Given that, we have no good reason to believe that Nadal is the only one who could challenge him. Federer at his best would be too good over a season for Cilic or Del Potro. Federer at 36/37 might not be.
Djokovic is down at #84 in the race and Federer has almost 3000 points on him. It's possible he can challenge Federer, but do you really believe he will?2. There's still time for Djokovic to recover his form. In 2017 prior to Montreal, there wasn't. And Djokovic on-form can certainly challenge the Federer of 2018 even if Federer maintains his form.
That is precisely the point I was making. Federer missed 8 of the 14 events last year while Nadal played all 14. It was always going to be an uphill battle for Federer considering that. This year, that looks a little different. Nadal has already missed 2 of them, which makes things easier for Federer.3. The rankings are mostly decided on the basis of 14 events (four Slams, one year-end event, nine Masters 1000). Yes, the 500s and 250s make a difference, but the bulk of the rankings are decided by those 14. At the time of the Montreal final last year, Nadal had already got a points tally for the first nine of those 14 events (three Slams and six MS 1000 events), while four of the remaining five were ones at which he doesn't usually excel (the US Open being the exception) and three were ones that he'd never won (Cincinnati being the one he had). True, many of the events between now and Canada are ones in which Nadal did well last year, but he is likely to do well in them again. And in 2017, it was 100% certain that Nadal would not do especially well at Wimbledon or Montreal. Now, there is at least a chance that he will do well in them in 2018. And there is also a chance that Federer will do worse than winning Wimbledon and making the Montreal final (and that he won't win Miami or Halle).
I agree that I would've given Federer a strong chance last year. I just give him a better chance this year, because he has a bigger lead over Nadal than he ever did last year and because Nadal and Djokovic are looking worse than they did last year.Basically, what changed in Montreal was not that Federer lost to Zverev but that he picked up an injury that meant he had to miss Cincinnati, couldn't challenge for the #2 seeding at the US Open, and wasn't fully fit at that event.
If Nadal wins RG and does well at the other clay events, it's going to be a battle again for Fedal.ATP Live Race:
1. Federer - 3110
2. Del Potro - 2120
3. Cilic - 1470
9. Dimitrov - 805
39. Nadal - 360
84. Djokovic - 200
If Djokovic can't show something on clay, we can as good as rule him out along with Andy Murray. If Zverev wins Miami, me might have to start considering him a contender, but I'll keep him off the list for now.
Him winning Queens after repeating or bettering his last clay seasonIf Nadal goes undefeated on the Clay or at least defends the 4680 , Also winning Queens and QF at W with winning Cincy or Montreal , Also At least a SF at the USO , He’s not defending points at the WTF
Especially as not all YE#1 are equal. Sampras 1998 worse than Fed’s 2012 or 2017 for example. Or Djokovic 2013.In the ATP Rankings page where it shows Former 1s , Federer is @ #1 & Sampras is @ #2 . With Sampras @ 6 YE#1 to Federer's 5 YE #1. So i take it that the ATP values # of Weeks @ #1 over # of Year End #1s??
Shouldn't this end the debate on an official ground considering the governing body has clearly stated what it deems to be the most valuable ranking stat according to the ATP's ranking of rankings?
Whether us fans all agree upon the official standings is another matter entirely ...
In the ATP Rankings page where it shows Former 1s , Federer is @ #1 & Sampras is @ #2 . With Sampras @ 6 YE#1 to Federer's 5 YE #1. So i take it that the ATP values # of Weeks @ #1 over # of Year End #1s??
Shouldn't this end the debate on an official ground considering the governing body has clearly stated what it deems to be the most valuable ranking stat according to the ATP's ranking of rankings?
Whether us fans all agree upon the official standings is another matter entirely ...
Shouldn’t middle school-level logic already answer this question? What on earth could possibly make year-end No. 1 so special in a rolling 52-week ranking system?
What I find funny in a way is that lets suppose Federer wins IW and Miami again, certainly has a good draw in IW. He would have 29 masters series, and be only one behind the current record holders Djokovic and Nadal. That would be just crazy.
Federer currently owns the most titles at slam level, at WTF level, at 500 level, at 250 level...the only one he doesn't have is 1000 series level, I don't think that is something he will get, or even retain that accomplishment, but if he wins the sunshine double, to come up to within one of Nadal and Djokovic would be quite something.
Could you give me the link to this page? Or at least the screenshot where they have Federer ranked over Sampras?In the ATP Rankings page where it shows Former 1s , Federer is @ #1 & Sampras is @ #2 . With Sampras @ 6 YE#1 to Federer's 5 YE #1. So i take it that the ATP values # of Weeks @ #1 over # of Year End #1s??
Shouldn't this end the debate on an official ground considering the governing body has clearly stated what it deems to be the most valuable ranking stat according to the ATP's ranking of rankings?
Whether us fans all agree upon the official standings is another matter entirely ...
Ned will be 1875 points behind where he was last year going into clay
Ned is done for
Ned? Fraudererx is also a good amount of points behind where he was last year.
I still think Federer will probably finish as #1.
P. S.: Sorry for using the term "Fraudererx", but it is exactly as disrespectful as using the label "Ned" for Nadal.
You seem to have missed the countless threads & how most here support YE1 over a 'random week in the year @ #1' . 'YE#1 is talked about more & has a trophy' etc ...
To be fair, it also baffles me that people even value ranking achievements so greatly. I realize that sounds rich coming from the creator of this thread, but I only care about ranking achievements because other people care about them.Oh, believe me, I haven't missed them. I'm just perpetually baffled that people with even a high school education could think that year-end No. 1 is on a completely different plane of achievement from any other week at No. 1 in a sport with a rolling 52-week ranking system.
Could you give me the link to this page? Or at least the screenshot where they have Federer ranked over Sampras?
Well, that has “Total Weeks At No. 1” in the dropdown bar selected, so that’s why Federer would be at the top. Pick Year End No. 1 and Sampras tops it.
Well, that has “Total Weeks At No. 1” in the dropdown bar selected, so that’s why Federer would be at the top. Pick Year End No. 1 and Sampras tops it.
@Zhilady - what's your view these days?I agree he's got the best chance (see my post 59 above). I disagree that it's better than at any point last year. Post Wimbledon he was more or less neck and neck with Rafa (a few, maybe 500, points behind iirc).
Rafa had only twice outperformed Fed post Wimbledon: 2013 (injury + Rafa's best run ever on HC), 2016 (Fed not playing at all).
That he did in 2017 was highly surprising. And probably largely a result of Fed getting injured in Canada (and Rafa getting the biggest cake walk in the Open era at the US).
What I'm saying is this: Post Wimbledon 2017 it was a 2-mans race with Fed having a massive advantage based on past performances in that part of the year.
Right now, he's got a great advantage, but he's "only" on 2.500 points with 3/4 of the calendar yet to be played. It may look like another 2 man's race but it's not. And if 2016 has taught us anything is that odd things can happen in the rankings.
I'd say he has a 30+ % chance of getting it now (maybe 40), whereas I would put him at 70 % post Wimbledon last year.
I think Federer’s chances are more or less the same as they were pre-Indian Wells. He didn’t do as well as I expected him to do in Indian Wells and Miami (he was literally a point away from getting the 1000 points I expected him to) but the good news for him is that nobody really gained on him too much. I considered Djokovic one of his 3 biggest threats and he’s fallen even more behind now and things aren’t looking good for him going forward. Cilic hasn’t made any ground on Federer. Del Potro has, but he says he will skip a large part of the claycourt season, so I don’t know how big of a threat he will be. Perhaps the biggest added negative I see is Federer confirming that he will completely skip clay. But that was almost expected, anyway, so it doesn’t make a huge difference.@Zhilady - what's your view these days?
With Federer leading by 2750 points, I think all Nadal needs is 3000 points during the claycourt season to remain in contention. After that point, a Federer injury or a Federer loss of form could hand him the YE#1 if he does reasonably well past that point. But, yes, realistically, he should be hoping for at least 4000 points to be in top contention. And he could achieve that even by losing in two of the claycourt Masters.This is going to be a difficult one for Nadal, since even though Federer lost a couple of points post Miami this year compared to last, Nadal has lost out on a huge amount of points. The difference between them last year was very small, it was only until Paris that Nadal managed to seal the deal, and that too because Federer decided to skip Paris in favor of a shot at WTF. In other words, Federer, tired as he maybe, gave up the YE1 when he was still in the fight, to focus on winning in London. Nadal has to at least equal what he did on the clay, if wants to stand any chance, if he slips up and loses early in even the masters, his chances of getting the year end number one goes up in smoke. That is 5000 points, he really needs 4K plus, and the lead heading into the grass at all costs. Losses in MC, Barcelona, Madrid or Rome, and his chase is effectively over...chasing slam count still on if he wins RG, but that is not what we are talking about in this thread. If Federer wins W, the race is over in my eyes, Federer will be gaining more points post W than Nadal, no way Nadal gets him then.
Yeah, year end versus weeks nr.1 is a silly argument. It's basically saying that Calendar Grand Slam is superior to six in a row. Just because you didn't win them in a calendar year.I hope Federer gets it just because I want him to have as many weeks at No. 1 as possible, but I wouldn’t characterize it as a “major record.” There's really nothing distinctly special about year-end No. 1 in a rolling 52-week ranking system. It's basically just a 1990s-era ATP marketing creation.
Nadal is real threat because he will try to play whole year.ATP Live Race:
1. Federer - 2545
2. Cilic - 1345
8. Dimitrov - 760
27. Nadal - 360
70. Djokovic - 190
Two of Federer's three biggest threats aren't even in the top 25 right now.
I would be shocked if either makes Wimbledon or USO finalsAll this speculation assumes that Federer and Nadal will mostly replicate their form from last year, and no other player will make a move. At their age nothing is guaranteed. It is quite possible this year may end up like a the Sampras '98 campaign where he played mickey mouse tournaments just to gain the YE#1. Since then, this whole thing about YE#1 always seemed a bit hollow to me.