Tennis & Coronavirus

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IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
Really? 10-15% would be insanely bad. Do you have a link?

The latest issue of the Economist (Feb 29, page 8) says a rough estimate is 25-70% of an infected country may eventually contract the virus (depends on R, the effective reproductive rate of the virus, explained further on page 13 of the same issue). Many of those infections will be very mild or even asymptomatic, so it's not as dire as it sounds based on those percentages.

Basically, once it's in community spread mode (you don't know the source of the infections), it is apparently difficult to isolate oneself from it given our inter-connectedness.

For example, once China eases up on its draconian prevention methods, the virus is likely to re-circulate through the population, even re-entering from other countries...
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
The latest issue of the Economist (Feb 29, page 8) says a rough estimate is 25-70% of an infected country may eventually contract the virus (depends on R, the effective reproductive rate of the virus, explained further on page 13 of the same issue). Many of those infections will be very mild or even asymptomatic, so it's not as dire as it sounds based on those percentages.

Basically, once it's in community spread mode (you don't know the source of the infections), it is apparently difficult to isolate oneself from it given our inter-connectedness.

For example, once China eases up on its draconian prevention methods, the virus is likely to re-circulate through the population, even re-entering from other countries...

I agree with your last statement but delaying the epidemic could be very important.

If the epidemic is delayed as much as possible there is a chance of getting a vacine to prevent many infections. Also, if the cases per day become high the health systems may be even more overwhelmed.

Otherwise, worse case, if the virus infected the entire world population before a vacine could be used and the mortality rate were 2%, then world wide deaths would be roughly 150,000,000. USA deaths would be 6,600,000. It appears that the mortality is high for the elderly and much lower for children.

The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 killed an estimated 50,000,000 world wide and 675,000 in the US. I've read that that pandemic often struck younger and heathy people.
 
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IowaGuy

Hall of Fame
It appears that the mortality is high for the elderly and much lower for children.

ER_Cez-WoAEZryB.jpg
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
That mortality vs age distribution seems amazing.

In contrast, here is the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic's mortality by age for deaths in Kentucky. Look at the rate for infants. Look also at the 80 year old mortality


jis74502.jpg


 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Indian Wells just sent an email that because of Coronavirus they are offering options to ticket holders that bought from the tournament. See email if you bought tickets. See website.
 
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Kobble

Hall of Fame
Anyone find it ironic NY has 33 cases, and the Flushing Meadows Park is named Corona Park?
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Stats out of Italy today give a mortality rate of 5%. No stats on distribution within that number or why it is so much higher than elsewhere. Next 2 weeks are going to be interesting with the rate of replication (frinstance 50 people in the UK 3 days ago has trebled to 180 today). UK gvt assuming a mortality rate of 2.5% on a worst case scenario, which is horrendous. More and more in London are wearing face masks - it’s like being part of a film you don’t want to pay for, but the mask wearers are still making me giggle at this stage: character in supermarket (Waitrose) tonight was wearing one with removable filters while sorting through the strawberries.

It seems that the ratio of deaths/observed cases depends a lot on testing. You can be more certain of the number of deaths, but even there it depends on testing. For the number of infections, testing needs to be done in a some methodical way with effective virus tests. High numbers like 5% imply that infected people are being missed or it might imply that there is less distancing so there is more transmission. It would be good to have a reference in simple language by some informed scientists.

I have read a few cases where larger gatherings of people have lead to several infections but I don't have those stories now. South Korea might have had one?
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Anyone find it ironic NY has 33 cases, and the Flushing Meadows Park is named Corona Park?

The US Open is played in Flushing Meadows - Corona. Park.

I guess the name came from the definition of Corona - a part of the body resembling or likened to a crown. The sun's corona also resembles a picture of the virus. See virus pictures in an earlier post.
 
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SeeItHitIt

Professional
Estimates
Español
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through February 29, 2020, there have been:
34,000,000 – 49,000,000
flu illnesses
16,000,000 – 23,000,000
flu medical visits
350,000 – 620,000
flu hospitalizations
20,000 – 52,000
flu deaths


Vortices or not (I usually love them, but now not when next up for departure in a trainer 152 after a Stratofortress departed 90 seconds prior). Wash your hands, keep hands away from face during match. Everyone touches all tennis balls.
 

Addxyz

Hall of Fame

onehandbh

G.O.A.T.
Uh.. because those countries aren't run by Trump? :unsure:
South Korea isn’t run by Trump, either, but they have had much more trouble containing it.

Taiwan’s early action seems to have made a difference. A lot of Chinese usually travel to Taiwan and vice versa.
 

Addxyz

Hall of Fame
South Korea isn’t run by Trump, either, but they have had much more trouble containing it.

Taiwan’s early action seems to have made a difference. A lot of Chinese usually travel to Taiwan and vice versa.

I wouldn't necessarily say that South Korea has had trouble containing it. They've had more bad luck with that whole cult getting sick. They've also tested far more people than the US has- something like 150,000 vs 1,500. A few of these Asian countries have had to deal with SARS / H1N1 so they really take these things seriously.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Website with some important and clear information. Our World in Data

"Based on the global WHO data up to and including 5th March 2020, the doubling time for COVID-19 is as follows:

Doubling time for the global number of cases (including China): 21 days

Doubling time for the global number of cases (excluding China): 4 days

The fact that the doubling time is longer when China is included is due to the fact that the number of daily cases has declined after the lockdown in China
."
_____________________________________________________________________________________________

"Under exponential growth 500 cases grow to more than 1 million cases after 11 doubling times.8 And after 10 more doubling times it would be 1 billion cases."

For the above calculation and a doubling time of 4 days, 11 doubling times is 44 days. 21 doubling times is 84 days.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Website that I am just reading with the numbers to estimate spreading.

And show the likihood of certain symptoms.
Coronavirus-Symptoms-%E2%80%93-WHO-joint-mission-1536x823.png


Death rates vs time. Is this due to recognizing, testing and diagnosing more Covid 19 cases as the weeks go by?
Covid-CFR-in-China-over-time.png



 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Seasonal Effects on Influenza for Flu Seasons 1982-1983 to 2017-2018


Times named month was seasonal peak. This is not the ideal data but it shows the number of times the named month was the peak of influenza infections.
flu-peak-activity-updated.jpg


We are in March so let's hope that a similar decline applies to Covid 19. There are many factors and I don't know about how influenza should compare to the new Covid 19 virus.

It would be informative to see a curve showing the occurence of influenza infections throughout the year.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
I was looking for the source information for the advice to not wear a mask under certain circumstances and found a WP article that said this -

"It’s less clear how helpful face masks are for the hordes of regular people rushing out to buy them. “Masks will be of benefit only because they stop you from putting contaminated fingers in your mouth,” said John Nicholls, a professor of pathology at Hong Kong University who was part of the research team that isolated and characterized the coronavirus responsible for the 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. The confusion has prompted shortages of protective gear from face masks to surgical gloves to hand sanitizer, and even toilet paper around the world. "

It would be useful to find any publications by Nicholls on the mask issue. The rational for having an infected person wear a mask seems reasonable but implying it is OK for uninfected people to not wear masks, as is frequently now repeated, seems very questionable. Won't 1) uninfected people meet 2) more infected people that don't know that they are infected than 3) infected people in masks that have been identified as infected? I am very confused by this information and want to see some clear explanations and the research that justifies it. I can understand having everybody wear masks, if the masks don't cause breathing, heart or other stresses, as they appear to be doing in China.

A search for John Nicholls Covid 19 masks found this interesting article on the weather and Covid 19.

Need articles - mostly research - on the rationale of why not wearing a mask is somehow a plus.
 
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Injured Again

Hall of Fame
I have seen one person at our club who was out on the courts playing tennis with a mask on. I'm not sure for me that if there is that much worry that it is worth it to even go play, but everyone is different and there may be other factors I don't know about. Hopefully this player wasn't possibly infected and trying to limit exposing others.
 

Jd1boo

Rookie
There are actually mask shortages now for healthcare workers. You need at minimum an n95 mask to filter the virus from what our hospital ID dept is saying. The blue masks won’t do anything aside from make you feel better mentally. A n95 or p100 mask is better
 

speedysteve

Legend
Played matches today. Everyone was handshaking and business as usual.
Slap up meal prepared for afterwards. Did wash hands carefully though.
The generation who's parents were war babies will just shrug this off, or die off (in life we are in death - to quote one text), as they survived the cold war nuclear threat, no air bags and seat belts and 70's flares[emoji3]

Can't see much changing unless they are dropping like flies..
 

user92626

G.O.A.T.
Played matches today. Everyone was handshaking and business as usual.
Slap up meal prepared for afterwards. Did wash hands carefully though.
The generation who's parents were war babies will just shrug this off, or die off (in life we are in death - to quote one text), as they survived the cold war nuclear threat, no air bags and seat belts and 70's flares[emoji3]

Can't see much changing unless they are dropping like flies..
YOu know that everyone else is working extra hard, taking all sorts of precaution for the "fearless" to stay fearless and healthy, right?

I'm still waiting for a report or video that shows a someone that says hey look at me I didn't care about the virus, now that I'm sick and a couple hours away from meeting my maker I still don't care, don't give a d@mn.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
There are actually mask shortages now for healthcare workers. You need at minimum an n95 mask to filter the virus from what our hospital ID dept is saying. The blue masks won’t do anything aside from make you feel better mentally. A n95 or p100 mask is better

The truth is one thing. The mask supply shortages problems are a separate thing. The decision to wear a mask is a life and death issue. More information is needed.

We have discused mask issues and found sources for important imformation. DO NOT TAKE THESE AS FACTS BUT READ ABOVE SOURCES IN POSTS AND CHECK OTHER SPOURCES.
I need to check some these values
1) the size of the Covid 19 virus is about 100 nm (nanometer) or 0.1um (micrometer)
2) the virus seems expected to appear within larger water droplets distributed in two size ranges. (Washington Post article.)
____Larger water droplets from coughing and sneezing, these fall out of the air.
____Smaller water droplets that float long times in the air.
____ Does the live virus ever appear without a water droplet????
3) For the virus itself of size 100nm the P95 mask might transmit too much according to a publication in post ........based on an experiment but it would stop some.
4) For the virus itself of size 100nm the N100 mask might be much more effective based on the same publication in post ............
5) For the larger droplets masks should initially catch the droplets with Covid inside. But then what happens when the water droplet evaporates, can the virus be release to pass throught the mask.

Masks have added air resistance that is a health risk to some people.

I am trying to find the research that supports the advice for an uninfected person to not to wear a mask in a population of infected people exhaling 1) virus, 2) large water droplets with Covid 19 virus and 3) small water droplets with Covid 19 virus.

This seems to be very bad advice to me so I need more information. There is a lot of cut-and-paste information being spread by news sources that needs checking.
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Ventillation on Cruise Ships

Read especially the parts of the article on ship ventillation beginning with.
"Milton, who studies the spread of virus particles in the air,............"

Important points briefly discussed are:
1) ventillation of cabins
2) filtration in the ship's ventillation system
3) how much recirculation of cabin air is being used. In other words, how much outside air is being mixed into the recirculating air of the ventillation system.

These same factors may also apply to any building or enclosure.
 
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speedysteve

Legend
On the radio yesterday, one viral expert said that sanitizing doesn't really help guard against it, as it's viral and passed on in air-borne droplets which are inhaled.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
On the radio yesterday, one viral expert said that sanitizing doesn't really help guard against it, as it's viral and passed on in air-borne droplets which are inhaled.

Seems reasonable. Post links or identify sources, if you can find the information.
,
The comment in this thread - that coughing or sneezing and, I have seen, just talking may disperse some larger droplets with virus. Those droplets may not travel too far. For example, droplets may land on the conveyer belts of foodmarket check outs. Some of these would get on food packages. Sanitizing would help there. Sorry to say this stuff...........

I believe that mouth to mouth/nose airborne transmission is most important, but the information that backs it up with research is hard to find. For one of the earlier viruses, SARS?, they did experiments in hospital rooms that seemed to prove that that virus was airbourne. Droplets or not?

They should ask confirmed cases if they wore masks in public or sanitized often. Not reliable information for determining cause but maybe it could be if done in a smart way.
 
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heninfan99

Talk Tennis Guru
Recreational singles tennis is great sport for social distancing. The opponent is 78 feet away most of the time.

No more serve & volley due to social distancing.
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Recreational singles tennis is great sport for social distancing. The opponent is 78 feet away most of the time.

No more serve & volley due to social distancing.

When you strike a tennis ball, it knocks off a lot of dust, ball lint, clay dust if clay courts and other stuff on the ball. If you look at your opponent and the background is dark, say, the back curtain in an indoor court, you can often see a puff of dust. Once on a very dusty indoor court, I could see the puffs of dust on almost every impact. The puff of debris usually starts close and to your front. If virus is on the hands it might get on the ball and get into to the dust cloud. Cleaning hands seems important but breathing could also place some virus on balls. ?? Hold balls behind you.....
 
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heninfan99

Talk Tennis Guru
When you strike a tennis ball, it knocks off a lot of dust, ball lint, clay dust if clay courts and other stuff on the ball. If you look at your opponent and the background is dark, say, the back curtain in an indoor court, you can often see a puff of dust. Once on a very dusty indoor court, I could see the puffs of dust on almost every impact. The puff of debris usually starts close and to your front. If virus is on the hands it might get on the ball and get into to the dust cloud. Cleaning hands seems important but breathing could also place some virus on balls. ?? Hold balls behind you.....
Just don't touch your mouth, eyes, mucous membranes or your or anyone elses ****.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
A short research publication studying Covid 19 cases in Wuhan, China.

Clinical characteristics of 140 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China Jin-jin Zhang1| Xiang Dong1| Yi-yuan Cao2| Ya-dong Yuan3| Yi-bin Yang4|You-qin Yan5| Cezmi A. Akdis6| Ya-dong Gao1

SARS-CoV-2 is Covid 19.

The important take away for me

"Conclusion: Detailed clinical investigation of 140 hospitalized COVID-19 cases suggests eosinopenia together with lymphopenia may be a potential indicator for diagnosis. Allergic diseases, asthma, and COPD are not risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Older age, high number of comorbidities, and more prominent laboratory abnormalities were associated with severe patients.

Someone on the news this morning said that some lung conditions were a risk factor for infection. This research says otherwise for "Allergic diseases, asthma, and COPD" I have severe asthma by PFT measurement, but I would call it more moderate by symptoms.
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.

This is a very crude what-might-be analysis -

Analysis - air moves with the velocity of the wind. Outdoors, there are statistics that give how likely it is to encounter wind of a given velocity at certain locations and time of the year. I believe that zero velocity occurs less often than 1 MPH and 2 MPH and that 1-2 MPH occurs more often than the higher wind speeds. Let's say the wind speed is often in the range of 1 to 2 MPH. 1 MPH = 5280'/3600 sec = 1.5 feet per second
link for wind speed curve.

If someone exhales their breath spreads by its initial velocity distribution (exhale or cough...) and by diffusion or mixing into the air. The exhaled breath is quickly caught up in the wind with its speed. Air rising from the hot court could be important, cooler air could enter from cooler areas around the court? From each person seen around the court in the video, the wind would move a slowly spreading cone of exhaled breath. Maybe it reaches the player or rises above the player if the court is hot enough. ? If one of those courtside bystanders is sick with Covid 19 there might be a chance for the player to inhale the virus. Larger droplets with virus might fall to the court, but smaller droplets with virus would go farther in the wind and go across the court. Are there any bare virus particles not in droplets??

When the player strikes the ball it frees up ball lint, court dirt, dust and anything else on the ball. That puff expands to, estimating, 2 feet in diameter. That dusty puff might be a source of virus.

If it is hot and the sun is strong, maybe that kills the virus in a short time?? Does virus in large droplets that reach the court die in seconds?

Is there anything above that seems unreasonable?

Are there other important factors?

As has always been the case, in my view, masks like the P100 would make people safer by absorbing some % of the virus. What % for 0.1 um virus particles? For droplets the filter absorption would be larger but would virus be released when the droplet evaporates?

Similar analyses would apply to people outside in a crowd. Inside a building on covered colliseum with no wind would be different. These probably would be much more risky than a tennis court since there are often more people.

There has probably been research modeling rooms, outdoor wind conditions, and large indoor facilities. etc.

HEPA Air Purifies capture particles down to 0.3 um. The bare virus is about 0.1um in size. The virus is usually in a droplet of some unknown larger size. It looks feasible that air purifiers be studied and maybe modified to reduce airborne Covid 19 virus and droplets. The problem of the droplet drying up and the filter releasing the virus has to be studied.
 
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user92626

G.O.A.T.
@Chas Tennis and all,

Can you speak more about how or why there is this new Covid-19 virus?

Do you think viruses tend to be newly created or always exist in nature but only known to man now that he's infected?

Is this Nature's way of culling humans of the weak and old? Or at least a good reminder for everyone to shape up a little since we've been too slacking? Ie. Nature's way of telling us to take better care of ourselves.

So interesting when I think about these topics.
 

AJvR

Rookie
I had a tournement this week, scheduled to play this evening, just heard that it will be canceled, damn.
 

Happi

Hall of Fame
I had a tournement this week, scheduled to play this evening, just heard that it will be canceled, damn.

Or perhaps lucky for you, depending on how you look at it.

In my country it is getting out of control now.
 

Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Can you speak more about how or why there is this new Covid-19 virus?
Viruses are very strange. What are they thinking?!

Do you think viruses tend to be newly created or always exist in nature but only known to man now that he's infected?
No, they mutate so they are always changing.

Is this Nature's way of culling humans of the weak and old? Or at least a good reminder for everyone to shape up a little since we've been too slacking? Ie. Nature's way of telling us to take better care of ourselves.

Look at the very young and the young adult death rates for the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic. Culling who?

jis74502.jpg

Now look at the very young and young adult death rate for the Covid 19 Pandemic.


So interesting when I think about these topics.
Agree, I always start with my health problems by getting very upset and fearing the worst of what might happen. And then I wind up also very interested. When you better understand the injury or disease and what you might do about it, it's a lot less stressful.
 
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Chas Tennis

G.O.A.T.
Or perhaps lucky for you, depending on how you look at it.

In my country it is getting out of control now.

The question of the day is

Have the Chinese found an effective way to stop this virus by keeping people away from one another?

Look for news on Wuhan and post.

Look at new cases. China +26 ____________ USA +182

Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Total
Recovered
Active
Cases
Serious,
Critical
Tot Cases/
1M pop
China80,761+263,136+1760,11517,5104,79456.1
Italy10,149+977631+1681,0048,514877167.9
Iran8,042+881291+542,7315,02095.7
S. Korea7,513+3558+52477,20854146.5
France1,784+37233+3121,7398627.3
Spain1,690+45935+51351,52010136.1
Germany1,458+2342181,438917.4
USA886+18228+21584382.7
 
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user92626

G.O.A.T.
Viruses are very strange. What are they thinking?!


No, they mutate so they are always changing.



Look at the very young and the young adult death rates for the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic. Culling who?

jis74502.jpg

Now look at the very young and young adult death rate for the Covid 19 Pandemic.




Agree, I always start with my health problems by getting very upset and fearing the worst of what might happen. And then I wind up also very interested. When you better understand the injury or disease and what you might do about it, it's a lot less stressful.
I guess some of my more philosophical questions escaped your comprehension.

It's intriguing to ponder about the origin of a virus, in this case the covid-19. Hence, my question on why, how the covid-19 comes into existence.

There's a thought out there, not saying it's correct but it's interesting, that China engineered it as a way to cull its aging population. China's population is getting out of balance regarding ages, work force.

Or, it's Nature's work. Nature is always about push and pull. When a wilder beast population gets too big and successful in number, the line of survivability moves closer to the healthier ones.
 
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