Thiem has a 40 pct chance

P

Pantera

Banned
Everyone is writing Thiem off but physically he will be fine as he is the iron man.

He is also mentally like granite...to win today after he blew the MPs on his serve was impressive.

But its Indian Wells that may make this alot more close than people think. Against Federer Thiem never got down beat and wore Federer down.

This is not a lock for Rafa.
 
metsman

metsman

G.O.A.T.
Pantera said:
Everyone is writing Thiem off but physically he will be fine as he is the iron man.

He is also mentally like granite...to win today after he blew the MPs on his serve was impressive.

But its Indian Wells that may make this alot more close than people think. Against Federer Thiem never got down beat and wore Federer down.

This is not a lock for Rafa.
Click to expand...
Blowing MPs on your serve is never impressive. The amount of serve lapses Thiem has (both today and in the USO match against Nadal) is pretty troubling. Can't really afford those.
 
P

Pantera

Banned
metsman said:
Blowing MPs on your serve is never impressive. The amount of serve lapses Thiem has (both today and in the USO match against Nadal) is pretty troubling. Can't really afford those.
Click to expand...
I think the wind was an issue although his BHs in that game he squandered MPs was choke jobs.

I think though Thiem struggles more with Djokovic game than Nadals so was more wary.

Problem he has if it gets close and physical surely his legs will go even as fit as he is.
 
Lleytonstation

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
If he plays anything like he did today against djoker, he is screwed. He can not slice so much and will have to trust his backhand. It can be a redline match, but it does not have to be. He can hang with Rafa if he plays smarter than his usual self and is not afraid to come over his backhand.
 
WhiskeyEE

WhiskeyEE

G.O.A.T.
r2473 said:
He has basically nothing to consistently hurt Rafa with. Thiem has to red line. Rafa just plays his comfortable game and will win.

There really isn’t anything Thiem can do
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That's why he's 3-5 on clay vs Nadal since 2017.

In 19 degree Celsius/cloudy weather, he absolutely has the game to beat Nadal. He just won't.
 
duaneeo

duaneeo

Legend
WhiskeyEE said:
I think if Thiem doesn't choke he would likely win. I just think he will choke though. And will be too tired.
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I don't think Thiem will be too tired, but think he will choke. He was SO nervous in the semifinal against a player he beat at RG last year, so one can only believe that he'll be nervous tenfold in the final against Rafa.
 
wang07

wang07

Semi-Pro
It's hard to see how Thiem could get it done honestly. I mean think about the best situation from his perspective: he is serving for the match in the 4th or 5th set, very likely he gets nervy(as so he did today in a SF), and then there's Rafa on the other side, who is literally the best at taking advantage of those situations. Thiem just gets sliced and diced. And we are talking about him being in a winning position, which is like talking about a 2% chance at best.

Let alone the fact it's the 12th final for Rafa, he has loads of experience, and full confidence as he's 11-0 in the RG finals.

I'd be hopeful to see a close final and a fair fight between the 2 best clay courters currently, but given the circumstances and their previous RG matches, Thiem will hardly win even a set.
 
ibbi

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
I might not go as high as 40% but he was for sure on a whole other level in this semi final than I have ever seen him play before. Grand slam final is always a whole other thing though. We've seen before (Soderling) that just because you've been there before doesn't mean you definitely get used to it the second time around.

Can he cope with the stage that he could not before? Can he bounce back from playing all these days in a row against a fresher player? Could be interesting. He's definitely impressed way more than he did 12 months ago, but who knows if that necessarily gets him closer to accomplishing what he's had no prayer of doing the last 2 years,
 
Slightly D1

Slightly D1

Professional
People can say this, but will ultimately talk about how it was just hopeful talk when the match is a 3 set or maybe 4 set snooze fest for Nadal.
 
A

AndyM

Legend
He will be mentally fried Nadal will be mentally fresh and physically fresh so it's not even a fair fight 62636 1
 
2nd Serve Ace

2nd Serve Ace

Hall of Fame
He has got to throw the kitchen sink at Nadal to have a chance.

Can't out Rafa Rafa!

Sent from my LG-LS993 using Tapatalk
 
T

TennisaGoGo

Semi-Pro
I'd go 50%. He's hitting it so much harder than the big 3. He threw in some nice drop shots. Didn't see him put his "I'm sorry" hand up once (which he used to do after almost every shot). I think he really is sick of coming close and he's learning how to close things out.
 
Sport

Sport

G.O.A.T.
WhiskeyEE said:
I think if Thiem doesn't choke he would likely win. I just think he will choke though. And will be too tired.
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"Choke". Because a player with 0 Roland-Garros can choke to a player with 11 Roland-Garros. If Thiem loses to Nadal, it will be because Nadal is the suerior clay player, not because Thiem "chokes".

That is like saying that Federer "choked" the SF against Nadal just because he lost. To dismiss any Nadal's victory, nothing easier than saying that his rival "choked".
 
WhiskeyEE

WhiskeyEE

G.O.A.T.
r2473 said:
How many of those wins are best of 5 on slow FO clay?
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Clay is always slow. The only difference is the air is thinner at altitude in Madrid. And it's slower when it's wet. And the ball is less bouncy when it's cool.

The conditions tomorrow favour Thiem more than they have for most of their clay court matches.
 
Lleytonstation

Lleytonstation

Talk Tennis Guru
Sport said:
"Choke". Because a player with 0 Roland-Garros can choke to a player with 11 Roland-Garros. If Thiem loses to Nadal, it will be because Nadal is the suerior clay player, not because Thiem "chokes".

That is like saying that Federer "choked" the SF against Nadal just because he lost. To dismiss any Nadal's victory, nothing easier than saying that his rival "choked".
Click to expand...

Rafa will not blow this match, so the only way Thiem wins is if he takes it from Rafa. However, it does not mean nerves can not get the best of a player and the other takes advantage of it. If Thiem is serving for the match and does not serve it out and eventually loses, it will be considered choking whether or not it is.

Today, Thiem choked when he was serving it out. 5 unforced errors and 3 of them were backhand slices due to nerves.
 
Sport

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Lleytonstation said:
Rafa will not blow this match, so the only way Thiem wins is if he takes it from Rafa. However, it does not mean nerves can not get the best of a player and the other takes advantage of it. If Thiem is serving for the match and does not serve it out and eventually loses, it will be considered choking whether or not it is.

Today, Thiem choked when he was serving it out. 5 unforced errors and 3 of them were backhand slices due to nerves.
Click to expand...
Today Thiem's backhand was horrible, he was abusing of the slice, which is not a weapon (you don't win points with the slice). But as Djokovic was also playing relatively poor, he could win the match. At the level Nadal is playing, I think he will win in 3.
 
Luka888

Luka888

Professional
It is going to be tough. I doubt that Dominic could pull it off. I hope he would. I don't know. I'm just tired of Nadal and RG all together. It would be great if Thiem wins his first major. Let's hope so :cool:.
 
Pheasant

Pheasant

Legend
Thiem absolutely needs to win the first set, or he will be in huge trouble. Nadal gets better as the match goes deeper, especially on clay.
 
E36BMWM3

E36BMWM3

Hall of Fame
Pantera said:
Everyone is writing Thiem off but physically he will be fine as he is the iron man.

He is also mentally like granite...to win today after he blew the MPs on his serve was impressive.

But its Indian Wells that may make this alot more close than people think. Against Federer Thiem never got down beat and wore Federer down.

This is not a lock for Rafa.
Click to expand...
It certainly isn’t, but he’s won all their previous RG meetings in straights sets, 9-0. It took him being injured for the cards to be reversed in AO 2014. Outside of a freak injury, i can’t see Nadal dropping 3 sets tomorrow
 
Subway Tennis

Subway Tennis

Legend
@Sport

Do you have the link for the high resolution photo used your avatar? If you do, are you able to post it? That is one of my favourite moments from the 1st SF.
 
True Fanerer

True Fanerer

G.O.A.T.
Thiem knows that a slice is known to be effective against Djokovic and at times it bailed him out yesterday. Pretty sure he won't try that nearly as much vs Rafa. He'll have to play a near perfect match to win. That's the only way to beat Nadal at RG unless he's way off. He might take a set. I'm pulling for him, but this is the toughest ask of anyone in the sport.

25%
 
M

Max G.

Legend
IMO 20%. It would be 40% if he had a full day's rest leading up to it. But the fact that he's had to play a lot of days in a row, and his preparation is bad whereas Nadal's was more routine, cuts that in half.
 
sbengte

sbengte

G.O.A.T.
The only way Nadal was going to be beaten is if he faced fresh Thiem and Djoko back to back. But obviously Thiem would land in Djoko's half , the half that gets screwed over by scheduling so the half dead that survives that semi doesn't have a prayer against ****. Just like how he got the Rome title.
 
sredna42

sredna42

Hall of Fame
If Jesus is actually real, and uses his magic to help thiem start winning (because even Jesus hates nadal) then i wonder what nadals MTO will be for
 
H

Hawaiian grip

Professional
He really really needs to up his backhand, otherwise he won’t stand a chance. With the backhand he sported yesterday he wins one set at most.
 
Shaolin

Shaolin

G.O.A.T.
I like Thiem and want him to win but honestly he only has a 16.432% chance by my estimation.

He needs to commit to going for broke, play perfectly and have Rafa play terrible on the day...then maybe there will be a miracle.
 
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