UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
Injury-related losses not included.
Three votes possible.
Which is the most absurd i.e. most surprising loss.
Three votes possible.
Which is the most absurd i.e. most surprising loss.
What is the biggest slam finale loss of a heavy favourite in the Open Era?
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Phoenix1983
G.O.A.T.
Johansson-Safin for me.
Albeit I’m speaking with the benefit of hindsight - as in, knowing that Johansson did diddly squat after that win.
I concede it’s possible that Chang’s win could be the most shocking, as a barely 17 year old, if you didn’t know that he would have a decade as a consistent top 10-er and slam contender.
Albeit I’m speaking with the benefit of hindsight - as in, knowing that Johansson did diddly squat after that win.
I concede it’s possible that Chang’s win could be the most shocking, as a barely 17 year old, if you didn’t know that he would have a decade as a consistent top 10-er and slam contender.
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
Well, the point of the thread is NOT to use hindsight, but who was heavy favourite at the time...
Pheasant
Legend
1984 FO, Lendl beat McEnroe. Mac was undefeated that year headed into that final. Lendl had the reputation of being a choker at that time. I remember this quite well as a Mac fan. Everybody expected Mac to destroy Lendl. That loss, given that I was only a teenager, is the toughest one as a fan that I ever experienced. McEnroe was slaughtering just about everybody that year.
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
The story goes that he was heavily partying before the finale.
Sounds realistic, considering how amateurish Safin was known to be sometimes.
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
I didn´t want to include that finale, because Lendl was a former no 1 and multi-slam finalist. Mac may have been the favourite but not by a large margin, surely...
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
Wawrinka was already a slam champ. Novak was favourite but not HEAVY favourite. Wawrinka had already beaten him at AO and pushed him several times more to 5 sets in slams. Check out the examples above, those are examples of heavy favourites... mostly.
I do admit that I considered adding it, but to me it just isn´t in the class of most of the matches listed.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Especially after losing the first set.
THUNDERVOLLEY
G.O.A.T.
You left off McEnroe vs Lendl at the 1984 French Open final. Even before McEnroe went on to shatter all competition at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open of the same year, his play at the FO--including most of the final--was a sight to behold. His allowing himself to be distracted cost him dearly, and he regrets it to this day.
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UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
You can´t tell me Mac was HEAVY favourite. Most of his domination of 1984 came AFTER FO, when he won W and USO, hence you are using hindsight, which is not the point of the thread. Lendl was a heavily established great player on clay by 1984, a former no 1 already, and had beaten Mac on clay.
They were 1-1 H2H on European clay before the finale. WHY would Mac be HUGE favourite in that match? Because he lead 2-0? This thread isn´t about missed chances, it´s about HEAVY favourites losing finales. Lendl was very far from a nobody.
Sudacafan
Bionic Poster
Not so fast. It was a match on clay.
Subway Tennis
Legend
Sampras losing 2000 US Open final to Safin is the one for me.
The biggest non-major final shocker of recent times is Hewitt winning his last two finals against Federer after struggling against him for almost a decade.
The biggest non-major final shocker of recent times is Hewitt winning his last two finals against Federer after struggling against him for almost a decade.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
Doesn't matter. This is THE match of my life and I remember the lead up and everything else. Mac was prohibitively and overwhelmingly favored in the 1984 FO final. You also neglect to mention that Mac trounced Ivan in two clay matches leading up to the '84 FO final in the weeks leading up to RG: in the WCT Champion's Tournament and then the World Team Cup. Lendl didn't come close to winning a set in either match.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
Safin-Johansson and Coria-Gaudio, so bad so sad.
Within the match context, agree it's McEnroe-Lendl. GodEnroe was routining everyone even on clay that year, crushed Lendl in the Forest Hills final a week before RG and resumed the crushing in the first two sets of the RG final... Lendl's comeback was one of the greatest in all of tennis history. Mac still hates thinking about it.
Within the match context, agree it's McEnroe-Lendl. GodEnroe was routining everyone even on clay that year, crushed Lendl in the Forest Hills final a week before RG and resumed the crushing in the first two sets of the RG final... Lendl's comeback was one of the greatest in all of tennis history. Mac still hates thinking about it.
THUNDERVOLLEY
G.O.A.T.
He was. I was there to know how he was considered, and he was the favorite.
No, as stated above. I saw it all as it happened, and Lendl was not the favorite--McEnroe was, and his play throughout that FO was more than enough evidence of that fact.
True.
...which did not make Lendl the French Open favorite. McEnroe was.
Bhagi Katbamna
Legend
Gomez Agassi. Agassi was the heavy favorite.
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
Maria Sharapova over Serena Williams - 2004 Wimbledon? Anyone?
MugOpponent
Hall of Fame
USO 2009 was stunning to say the least.
clout
Hall of Fame
Serena’s lost quite a lot of finals to players she should’ve beaten. Players ranging from 17 year old Sharapova, Stosur, Kerber (2x), Muguruza, and now 19 year old Andrescu.
stringertom
Bionic Poster
Kuerten RG’97. A total unknown in his third career slam and without any ATP finals appearances defeated a two time champion and also defeating the two more recent RG champions along the way.
End of thread.
End of thread.
Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
Wasn’t Coria injured in that RG final?
Moose Malloy
G.O.A.T.
I guess we can't know for sure what the biggest upset was in terms of actual odds(and we all know the opinions of many posters here don't often reflect reality)
But I was in England during Wimbledon in 92, and read all odds(they were in the newspaper every day) and I'm certain Goran was at best, a slight favorite(remember we aren't talking about pre tournament odds - agassi was considered the real deal by the time of the final considering who he beat to get there). Ditto Becker over Curren in 85, by the time of the final, Becker was legit with bookies.
Stich over Becker and Ashe over Connors were much bigger upsets. Stich was actually a more obscure name in 91 than Becker was in 85 despite being ranked higher(Becker had won queens and was already somewhat of a sensation with the press when Wimbledon began that year, they even put him on center court for his first round match even though he was unseeded)
I would bet Edberg was a slight favorite over Chang(again we aren't talking pre tournament odds, I can't believe any follower of the game was truly shocked that he won that match)
I suspect the same with Kuerten in 97, I can't believe bruguera was anymore than a slight favorite in that final(his level of play was pretty low that year, he was a shadow of the player who won in 94)
I think Majoli over Hingis trumps any thing mentioned so far.
But I was in England during Wimbledon in 92, and read all odds(they were in the newspaper every day) and I'm certain Goran was at best, a slight favorite(remember we aren't talking about pre tournament odds - agassi was considered the real deal by the time of the final considering who he beat to get there). Ditto Becker over Curren in 85, by the time of the final, Becker was legit with bookies.
Stich over Becker and Ashe over Connors were much bigger upsets. Stich was actually a more obscure name in 91 than Becker was in 85 despite being ranked higher(Becker had won queens and was already somewhat of a sensation with the press when Wimbledon began that year, they even put him on center court for his first round match even though he was unseeded)
I would bet Edberg was a slight favorite over Chang(again we aren't talking pre tournament odds, I can't believe any follower of the game was truly shocked that he won that match)
I suspect the same with Kuerten in 97, I can't believe bruguera was anymore than a slight favorite in that final(his level of play was pretty low that year, he was a shadow of the player who won in 94)
I think Majoli over Hingis trumps any thing mentioned so far.
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
Yeah but this was around her peak and you're allso using hindsight. Serena was the defending champ, Sharapova hadn't done much on tour at this point and was just 17.
Her match against Stosur came after a long injury time off and she wasn't even top 25, Andreescu was after pregnancy and Serena was 37 and she was not the favourite. Muguruza and the 2 Kerber losses as well weren't when she was at her peak. Stosur
Aussie Darcy
Bionic Poster
I thought of posting Majoli over Hingis but I went for Sharapova over Serena for a few reasons.
Majoli had won a number of Tier 1 titles. She'd made the last 2 French Open QF's before her win. She'd played and beaten Hingis before (7 months before the final at the 1996 YEC). She was also a top 10 player.
Sharapova however, was just 17, a relative unknown, outside the top 10, hadn't won anything about a Tier 3/WTA International tournament and had only played Serena once, having lost to her.
I think hindsight has blinded us on that one. If you evaluate it at the time of the tournament then the upset was definitely bigger for Sharapova over Majoli but if you look back now then you'd say Majoli.
Majoli never made another slam SF, never beat Hingis again and didn't win another title for almost 5 years after that slam victory.
Sharapova meanwhile, won 4 more slams, became #1, beat Serena again that year and is one of the most recognizable faces of the sport.
When Sharapova beat Serena it was deemed one of the greatest upsets in history.
ForumMember
Hall of Fame
Wawrinka beating Nadal in AO (though injury involved there)
Wawrinka beating Djokovic
Pat Cash beating Ivan Lendl (??) - I assume that Lendl would have been strong fav in that final. Ppl following Tennis that time may comment.
Wawrinka beating Djokovic
Pat Cash beating Ivan Lendl (??) - I assume that Lendl would have been strong fav in that final. Ppl following Tennis that time may comment.
OldschoolKIaus
Hall of Fame
AO02 ... lol Safin.
And FO15.
And FO15.
Subway Tennis
Legend
It has to be right up there. In retrospect, it seems like even more of a lightening in a bottle moment given their matches since (the 2004 WTF match notwithstanding - Williams should not have played).
I am only going to comment on this century. And in this century Wawrinka beating Nadal is the biggest upset, regardless of how the match unfolded. Nadal was 27-0 against Wawrinka before that match in sets won. It can't get any more one sided. I remember I wanted Wawrinka to win against Berdych as a Nadal fan, I was sure that Berdych would be much tougher in the final. Wawrinka beating Djokovic at RG15 is not even worth mentioning here. I fully expected a tough contest based on their previous slam matches. Plus clay was Wawrinka's most favorite surface and Djokovic's least and Djokovic had enormous pressure on him to win the career slam. I wasn't shocked at all with the result. Federer vs Del Potro at US Open 2009 was definitely a huge upset but Del Potro had pushed Federer to 5 sets just 3 months prior to that at RG and he was playing really well. I still expected him to lose given that it was his first final, but I'd definitely rank it below AO14 final.
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Moose Malloy
G.O.A.T.
Sharapova in 04 was a big upset, but I think majoli was a bigger upset for several reasons.
Hingis went into that match undefeated for the year! And majoli beat no one of note en route to
the final. While Sharapova beat Davenport in the semis, I think that alone made her a bit more formidable. And Serena was coming off an injury(missed 03 USO, 04 AO) hadn't won a major since previous year's Wimbledon so while she was a big favorite, there were at least some question marks around her.
ForumMember
Hall of Fame
Yes.. I totally agree. i was already celebrating no 14 before that match even started. In his earlier matches he had defeated wawrinka so comprehensively that it wasn't even expected to be a contest. Is there anyway we can find what were the odds before the start of the match?
On injury part while Nadal was definitely hampered with his back, but if Wawrinka had not put such strong resistance and showed nerves of playing in his first GS final, Nadal would have found a way to beat him. But Stanimal emerged in that match and nothing less than 100% Nadal would have tames him.
BorgTheGOAT
Legend
Two matches come to my mind:
1) Safin vs Sampras US Open 2000
Sampras was already four times US Open champion 12-2 in slam finals while Safin was relatively unknown and in his first slam final ever.
2) Wawrinka vs Nadal AO 2014
Not only was it Stans very first slam final but up to this point he had never won even a set against Nadal (0-26).
I would like to know the betting odds before those finals.
1) Safin vs Sampras US Open 2000
Sampras was already four times US Open champion 12-2 in slam finals while Safin was relatively unknown and in his first slam final ever.
2) Wawrinka vs Nadal AO 2014
Not only was it Stans very first slam final but up to this point he had never won even a set against Nadal (0-26).
I would like to know the betting odds before those finals.
AnOctorokForDinner
Talk Tennis Guru
Cash already beat Lendl in AO SF that year, so not a big surprise.
Nadal was severely injured in AO2014 final and could not play (like Djokovic against Berdich W or Thiem RG or Wawrinka USO). Nadal wining that would be the biggest upset ever.
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
I should have included the Safin one.
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
Anyone who followed their slam rivalry couldn´t have consider Novak a heavy favourite.
UnderratedSlam
G.O.A.T.
Hilarious...
Try reading the title of the thread, and the explanation.
Now try to process the difference between HEAVY favourite and favourite.
Now do you understand?
Safin vs Johansson. HEAVY favourite. Mac-Lendl, favourite.
There is a difference. You just have to catch it.
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
There were more than enough reasons to think that Wawrinka has a chance in that final. At least it was clear that he is going to be a challenge, unlike Nadal and Murray. Djokovic was still the favorite, but that was by no means a shocking result.
RF-18
Talk Tennis Guru
Djokovic was definitely a heavy fav against Waw. It was a shocking loss.
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
Wawrinka didn't play any better than he did in their matches in Shanghai or WTF 2013. If Nadal was in normal form (which he wasn't, probably due to injury. Hard to forget that 3 missed second serve returns in a row on break points) then it could be close for a few sets, but Nadal would have won like he did in their previous matches.
Sabrina
Hall of Fame
That 2014 AO Final basically set Nadal back for about 3 years or so.
Turning Pro
Hall of Fame
Equally Nadal-wawrinka ao14 and coria- gaudio fo04 
I was at the final hired binoculars to check out the three stunners in his box. He even joked with the crowd that he was a little tired
Subway Tennis
Legend
Agree
StrongRule
Talk Tennis Guru
Yes. It was the loss which pretty much ended his prime. He was never the same player since then. For 3 long years he was totally off. And while he came back in 2017-2019 but it's still not his prime level.
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