Who is more likely to win the 2012 AO between Murray and Tsonga?

[kishnabe]

Tsonga had a brilliant 2nd half of 2012: Wimby Semi, US QTR, Metz Open, Austrian Open, Paris Final and WTF Final. That form continues on to 2012 and he has won Doha.


Murray also had a great year with a slam Final and three semis, Cincy, Shanghai, Tokyo, Queens, Bangkok titles. Then come 2012 he still playing real well with a possible Brisbane win.


Both these guys had their best sucess at the AO. Tsonga with a final and semi. While Murray has twon finals. Andy had a great Asian swing while Tsonga had an awesome indoor season. Both might end up with the first two titles of the season.

They are in tip top shape and form.....between these two who would more likely win the AO 2012 irrespective of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic!

 

[SLD76]

i wanna say....murray.

 

[Agassi-Fan]

Tsonga seems more willing to step up during the big moments. Murray seems to really take his foot off the gas and play passively when he gets to finals of a slam.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Tsonga I think. Id rather see Murray win it though, but Tsonga.

 

[tacou]

if they played each other, I would pick Murray, but as in who can step up against another big player in a final, I'd take Tsonga.

 

[passive_aggressive]

Tsonga. By a freaking LONG shot.

Better to be inconsistently lethal than consistently average.

If Tsonga strikes twice in the 2nd week of the Australian Open, the title could be his. For Murray, however, there is nothing he can do but hope that on the day his opponents cannot find the court with their shots; if they can he's powerless to stop them.

 

[Tony48]

Are we talking about if they played one another in the final? I'd say that Murray would win with a bizarre scoreline, something like 7-5, 0-6, 6-0, 7-5. It would be about who could have the steadier nerves, and since Murray has been in 2 more finals, he would probably manage himself just a LITTLE bit better.

Tsonga would just try to outhit his opponent, like he does everyone. And unless he's having an absolutely stellar night, he's going to break down and Murray will be there to collect his first slam.

 

[Walenty]

I believe both these players will have a big 2012, a slam for Murray and top 5 or 6 for Tsonga.

That being said, you have to go with Murray on this one.

 

[Xizel]

I'd root for Tsonga, but "The Ivan Has Landed" Murray seems hopeful.

 

[daddy]

Tough call to make. Both of them were so close yet never made it. Differernt players completely but Id say that Tsonga is somewhat more prepared for the challenge unless Lendl puls a miracle with muzzi.

Akcija

 

[Telepatic]

Murray, but AO 2008 Tsonga would've won me thinks.

 

[batz]

Bookies say Murray is about 4 times more likely.

 

[Lsmkenpo]

Going into the open I would rate Murray as the second favorite to win behind Djokovic.

I would put Tsonga at 4th favorite behind Djokovic, Murray and Federer.

 

[Sentinel]

Between the 2, Murray is more likely to reach the final. However, if both were in the final I'd probably favor Tsonga.

 

[bullfan]

My heart says Murray will win, but my brain says that Tsonga.

 

[cc0509]

I can't see Tsonga winning a slam. I am going with Murray.

 

[cc0509]

Going into the open I would rate Murray as the second favorite to win behind Djokovic. I would put Tsonga at 4th favorite behind Djokovic, Murray and Federer.

I agree with you. I originally said Djokovic was the favorite and Federer second favorite, but I no longer think so and would put Murray as the second favorite behind Djokovic.

 

[cc0509]

Bookies say Murray is about 4 times more likely.

I agree..... Can't see Tsonga winning the AO at all.

 

[Eternity]

Between the 2, Murray is more likely to reach the final. However, if both were in the final I'd probably favor Tsonga.

I agree. Bull I'll vote for Murray since he has a better chance of being in the final.

 

[batz]

I agree with you. I originally said Djokovic was the favorite and Federer second favorite, but I no longer think so and would put Murray as the second favorite behind Djokovic.

Let's not get carried away now. Bookies say Roger is second favourite; bad back or no bad back. I agree with them - the guy is a multiple course and distance winner. Then you can probably toss a coin between Nadal and Murray.

 

[cc0509]

Let's not get carried away now. Bookies say Roger is second favourite; bad back or no bad back. I agree with them - the guy is a multiple course and distance winner. Then you can probably toss a coin between Nadal and Murray.

Honestly, I am a Fed fan and I want to believe that Roger is the second favorite but since his recent back issues and since Murray has recruited Lendl, which I think will give him a confidence boost, I think Murray may be second fave behind Djokovic. Who knows for sure though. We will find out soon enough.

 

[Lsmkenpo]

Watching Brisbane Murray has been stepping into the court and hitting his forehand with a lot of aggression, more than I have ever seen from him over an entire tournament.

He has also stepped up the aggression returning 2nd serves, he is trying to make his opponent pay for missing a 1st serve. He has been returning well inside the baseline.

This is why I now see him as second favorite, if he plays like this at the AO, I expect to see him in the final.

 

[cc0509]

Yes, Murray does look a little more aggressive. His first serve looks pretty good too.

 

[batz]

Honestly, I am a Fed fan and I want to believe that Roger is the second favorite but since his recent back issues and since Murray has recruited Lendl, which I think will give him a confidence boost, I think Murray may be second fave behind Djokovic. Who knows for sure though. We will find out soon enough.

Nice of you to say so; but it's still Roger 2nd fave for me. You're right - we'll soon find out; really looking forward to it. I'm sure Roger will be fine - hopefully Doha was just a precaution.

 

[cc0509]

Nice of you to say so; but it's still Roger 2nd fave for me. You're right - we'll soon find out; really looking forward to it. I'm sure Roger will be fine - hopefully Doha was just a precaution.

Well I hope you are right!

Either way I think Djokovic is the clear favorite so second place probably won't matter much.

 

[Crazy man]

Probably about the same. As for favourite, I would have said Federer but it looks like he's really hurt his back (worst injury to get as an athlete) he might not ever win a slam again (yes, a back injury no matter how bad is that serious - especially in sports)!

 

[cc0509]

Probably about the same. As for favourite, I would have said Federer but it looks like he's really hurt his back (worst injury to get as an athlete) he might not ever win a slam again (yes, a back injury no matter how bad is that serious - especially in sports)!

But Roger has always had back issues.

 

[Eternity]

Probably about the same. As for favourite, I would have said Federer but it looks like he's really hurt his back (worst injury to get as an athlete) he might not ever win a slam again (yes, a back injury no matter how bad is that serious - especially in sports)!

Really, why did you favour Fed over Novak?

 

[Crazy man]

Really, why did you favour Fed over Novak?

Because Federer can beat Djokovic. He'd rather play Djokovic than Nadal, even at the Australian Open. A lot had to do with WTF for my prediction; I don't think that exo means anything. Roddick AO 2007 anyone? I know wtf and ao are different surfaces but prior to Federer's back injury he would have been very confident of beating the guys around him.

But Roger has always had back issues.

Yes, but when was the last time his back effected him bad enough to pull out of a tournament? Especially right before a slam event.

 

[Lsmkenpo]

But Roger has always had back issues.

Yep, you can tell by his serve, when he is hurting his serve becomes erratic.

 

[kaku]

Watching Brisbane Murray has been stepping into the court and hitting his forehand with a lot of aggression, more than I have ever seen from him over an entire tournament.

He has also stepped up the aggression returning 2nd serves, he is trying to make his opponent pay for missing a 1st serve. He has been returning well inside the baseline.

This is why I now see him as second favorite, if he plays like this at the AO, I expect to see him in the final.

I agree, his forehand is definitely more aggressive. He's going down the line with his forehand a lot more now. His first serve % has also picked up, didn't serve under 60% for the entirety of Brisbane. As for his second serve, I don't know if it's just me but it looks like he's trying to be more aggressive with his second serve at times.

 

[Sentinel]

But Roger has always had back issues.

Spineless chap, your Roger !

Back issues and mono, too. Poor chap has had an uphill battle all his life.

 

[Feña14]

I'd say Murray. He was very impressive after the US Open last year, until he picked up that injury which slowed him down and ultimately forced him to pull out of London. He's started this season playing just as well, added to that his new partnership with Lendl.

I really hope he makes the final, it would be interesting to see if the few weeks of work Lendl has put in with him has started to work.

 

[sbengte]

If people think Murray signing up with Lendl is going to produce results in about 2 weeks time, that is seriously delusional. Any coaching partnership cannot be a magic potion producing instantaneous results.

I don't give Murray any more chances at the AO than he had before the Lendl factor came in. Realistically, it would take 6 months at the minimum to see any good results , so I would give him a better chance of winning slams at RG or Wimbledon. And there is a long gap between the AO and RG , so who knows how things will change with the top 3 by the time RG comes along.

 

[Feña14]

If people think Murray signing up with Lendl is going to produce results in about 2 weeks time, that is seriously delusional. Any coaching partnership cannot be a magic potion producing instantaneous results.

I don't give Murray any more chances at the AO than he had before the Lendl factor came in. Realistically, it would take 6 months at the minimum to see any good results , so I would give him a better chance of winning slams at RG or Wimbledon. And there is a long gap between the AO and RG , so who knows how things will change with the top 3 by the time RG comes along.

Says who? Murray has proven many times that he has what it takes to reach the finals of majors. It just seems to be a mental thing that stops him from taking the final step. Lendl is a player with experience in that area, who knows? Maybe all it takes would be for one thing Lendl says to resonate with Murray, something that takes the pressure off, maybe helps him see the bigger picture, gives him the confidence he needs to take the last step etc..

It could take a few weeks, 6 months, or a couple of years. We have to wait and see.

 

[passive_aggressive]

Djokovic > Nadal >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> everyone else

That's the likelihood of players winning the AO 2012.

 

[celoft]

Murray maybe.

 

[joeri888]

If Tsonga's in Murray's quarter. It's pretty close. Otherwise, probably Murray, since he'll only have to go through 2 of the big three.

 

[NadalAgassi]

Nice of you to say so; but it's still Roger 2nd fave for me.

Nadal is the 2nd favorite. He is still entrenched as World #2, and owned both Federer and Murray all of last year until the very end where he always struggles. If something happens to Djokovic (unlikely) Nadal becomes about 80% likely to win it, even though he isnt the most likely to beat Djokovic.

 

[Peters]

Andy Murray, assuming niggling injuries don't muddle things and bring down that likelihood.

But assuming both players are injury free and on decent form, Andy is far more likely.

 

[batz]

Nadal is the 2nd favorite. He is still entrenched as World #2, and owned both Federer and Murray all of last year until the very end where he always struggles. If something happens to Djokovic (unlikely) Nadal becomes about 80% likely to win it, even though he isnt the most likely to beat Djokovic.

Not according the the bookies he's not.

 

[NadalAgassi]

Not according the the bookies he's not.

The bookies are often stupid. There is a reason many of us who actually follow tennis seriously make money off them. They are judging Federer on his great indoor season and Nadal on his poor one, but only someone who started following tennis yesterday would be surprised that Federer outperforms Nadal indoors. It is suddenly forgotten that Nadal easily outperformed Federer and Murray all year except for the post U.S Open season where as is the norm he struggled somewhat. Nadal clearly has more chance than Federer in any outdoor tournament right now, only a very fast hard court would they even be close in odds.

If he somehow avoids Djokovic there is very little chance of Nadal not winning. Just as there is very little chance of Nadal winning if Djokovic makes the final against him. Murray and Federer have more chance against Djokovic on a hard court than Nadal does right now, but if either one play Nadal in a best of 5 on slow outdoor hard courts they will likely lose, Federer in a slam meeting will "probably" never beat Nadal again.

 

[batz]

The bookies are often stupid. There is a reason many of us who actually follow tennis seriously make money off them. They are judging Federer on his great indoor season and Nadal on his poor one, but only someone who started following tennis yesterday would be surprised that Federer outperforms Nadal indoors. It is suddenly forgotten that Nadal easily outperformed Federer and Murray all year except for the post U.S Open season where as is the norm he struggled somewhat. Nadal clearly has more chance than Federer in any outdoor tournament right now, only a very fast hard court would they even be close in odds.

If he somehow avoids Djokovic there is very little chance of Nadal not winning. Just as there is very little chance of Nadal winning if Djokovic makes the final against him. Murray and Federer have more chance against Djokovic on a hard court than Nadal does right now, but if either one play Nadal in a best of 5 on slow outdoor hard courts they will likely lose, Federer in a slam meeting will "probably" never beat Nadal again.

You're not kidding - you can get as much as 6/1 for Nadal to win the AO - that's bloody good value IMO.

I'm just saying that's where the bookies have him.

 

[tennis_pro]

You're not kidding - you can get as much as 6/1 for Nadal to win the AO - that's bloody good value IMO.

I'm just saying that's where the bookies have him.

The only reason it's 6/1 is because Djokovic has a very good chance of reaching the final. If Novak somehow manages to lose before the final, watch Nadal's betting odds go to 2/1

 

[Feña14]

You're not kidding - you can get as much as 6/1 for Nadal to win the AO - that's bloody good value IMO.

I'm just saying that's where the bookies have him.

You're both right yeah, it's been mentioned before that the odds reflect where the money has been placed. I guess the people placing bets haven't been putting much on Nadal just yet.

Rightly or wrongly, it probably has something to do with Nadal's average form since the US Open, and the great form of Federer and Murray over that period.

 

[NadalAgassi]

The only reason it's 6/1 is because Djokovic has a very good chance of reaching the final. If Novak somehow manages to love before the final, watch Nadal's betting odds go to 2/1

If Djokovic were out 2/1 on Nadal would even be a steal. His real odds would be more like 1/3 at that point as there is nobody else at all likely to beat him.