Why Federer is almost certain to lose at W 2020

[terribleIVAN]

Fed won't win W 2020.

Not because Nole will be there, or because he's not physically fit.

But simply because each passing rd he will be reminded of 40-15: the pressure of erasing it by winning the tournament will scramble his already notorious fragile mind.

Like many players, Fed plays best when he feels no pressure and isn't expected to win.

Not the case this upcoming W. It will be his last realistic chance at this tournament, and his last opportunity to avoid going down in history as the one who choked away the slam race.

I expect Fed to exit in the quarters to someone like Raonic or Thiem.

 

[CYGS]

I give him 0% chance. Mark my words.

 

[tennis_pro]

The fact that you're talking about someone not having a chance to win something tells me that he's still relevant. Keep talking about Fed, please and thank you.

 

[Jaitock1991]

The reason is simple. He's going to be less than a month shy of freaking 39 years old at that point. Tennis is more physical than ever, and as much as people don't seem to realize it, the fact that he's still as relevant as he is is nothing short of miraculous.

 

[Azure]

He is a champion and the most successful player in Wimbledon. He was the better player last year in the final. Sure he did not capitalize on match points and he may not win. Fortunately for us he is not a coward and will try at his age to once again compete at the highest levels of the sport....nearly 20 years after his first appearance.

 

[terribleIVAN]

The fact that you're talking about someone not having a chance to win something tells me that he's still relevant. Keep talking about Fed, please and thank you.

Just because the man is flawed doesn't mean he's not relevant competitively.

He had 2 MP last year and won the tournament 8 times.

Should Nole be absent, Fed will probably be seeded first.

It won't matter.

 

[terribleIVAN]

the fact that he's still as relevant as he is is nothing short of miraculous.

Miraculous indeed....or maybe more related to the miracles of modern stem cell therapy, which didn't exist 20 years ago.

 

[I Am Finnish]

The 40-15 curse

 

[MichaelNadal]

The reason is simple. He's going to be less than a month shy of freaking 39 years old at that point. Tennis is more physical than ever, and as much as people don't seem to realize it, the fact that he's still as relevant as he is is nothing short of miraculous.

This. Last year was his Venus 2017 Wimby run lol. Might be a 3rd round kinda year

 

[gn]

Fed won't win W 2020.

Not because Nole will be there, or because he's not physically fit.

But simply because each passing rd he will be reminded of 40-15: the pressure of erasing it by winning the tournament will scramble his already notorious fragile mind.

Like many players, Fed plays best when he feels no pressure and isn't expected to win.

Not the case this upcoming W. It will be his last realistic chance at this tournament, and his last opportunity to avoid going down in history as the one who choked away the slam race.

I expect Fed to exit in the quarters to someone like Raonic or Thiem.

Thiem did not reach a single QF at Wimbledon in 6 attempts. His Wimby results - (1R, 2R, 2R, 4R, 1R, 1R).
Milos is hardly a factor after 2016. Tsitsipas/Khachanov are failing continuously.
It's hard to imagine anybody stopping Fed other than Nole. Injury/age-factor is 2nd favorite though.

Fact is that most players are not confident to move on slippery surface. Some even gets injured on their way to the court.
So I think Fed will take advantage of all this despite getting close to 39 and all that 40-15 demons.

If Nole is out and Fed is still in, would you bet on anybody to win the tournament other than Fed?

 

[ChrisRF]

The reason is simple. He's going to be less than a month shy of freaking 39 years old at that point. Tennis is more physical than ever, and as much as people don't seem to realize it, the fact that he's still as relevant as he is is nothing short of miraculous.

Last year many people said the reason why he wouldn’t have a chance would be that he was "almost 38 years old", and still only his nerves lost him the title. Yes, he becomes older as anyone does year by year, but why should the final border definitely arrive this year when all prophets were wrong about exactly this since at least 5 years, if not 7 or 8? I still believe in him.

 

[Jaitock1991]

Last year many people said the reason why he wouldn’t have a chance would be that he was "almost 38 years old", and still only his nerves lost him the title. Yes, he becomes older as anyone does year by year, but why should the final border definitely arrive this year when all prophets were wrong about exactly this since at least 5 years, if not 7 or 8? I still believe in him.

I'm not saying it's going to be this year. Who knows, maybe he will find a way to win the whole thing? At this point nothing surprises me about the guy anymore. But the guy is old enough to be the father of several of the guys in the top 100, and he's been on tour since before some of them were even born. So to me, just the thought of denying that his age is a highly limiting factor for him in terms of winning GS titles at this point is crazy.

To people that have been following him closely throughout his career his gradual physical decline this last decade has been very easy to see and measure. But along with this he's been extremely good at developing the parts of his game that minimize the effects of this, and as a result this has allowed him to stay relevant for much longer than he would otherwise do.

At some point, however, his physical decline is going to be too big to be minimized by the rest of his game, no matter how much he developes or tweeks it. And all I'm saying is that this day is getting closer each day, and at almost 40, we as fans of his better just accept it and appreciate the twilight of this amazing journey we have been priveliged to experience.

 

[Spider]

40 - 15 will always be remembered. Until he wins another W. Djokovic is too strong.

 

[ChrisRF]

I'm not saying it's going to be this year. Who knows, maybe he will find a way to win the whole thing? At this point nothing surprises me about the guy anymore. But the guy is old enough to be the father of several of the guys in the top 100, and he's been on tour since before some of them were even born. So to me, just the thought of denying that his age is a highly limiting factor for him in terms of winning GS titles at this point is crazy.

To people that have been following him closely throughout his career his gradual physical decline this last decade has been very easy to see and measure. But along with this he's been extremely good at developing the parts of his game that minimize the effects of this, and as a result this has allowed him to stay relevant for much longer than he would otherwise do.

At some point, however, his physical decline is going to be too big to be minimized by the rest of his game, no matter how much he developes or tweeks it. And all I'm saying is that this day is getting closer each day, and at almost 40, we as fans of his better just accept it and appreciate the twilight of this amazing journey we have been priveliged to experience.

Well, I don't disagree. He did very well to cover up his physical decline with changes to his racquet, style etc. Also I would say his physical decline is a exaggerated by some people and he really does many things very well to stay in good shape. One thing is sure, the Federer with today’s game and the fitness of 2006 would make mincemeat out of the whole tour. However, that is hypothetical, because nobody can be young and experienced at the same time.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Well, I don't disagree. He did very well to cover up his physical decline with changes to his racquet, style etc. Also I would say his physical decline is a exaggerated by some people and he really does many things very well to stay in good shape. One thing is sure, the Federer with today’s game and the fitness of 2006 would make mincemeat out of the whole tour. However, that is hypothetical, because nobody can be young and experienced at the same time.

Fed 2006 would be wrecking the tour regardless lol. Wouldn't even need today's game.

 

[terribleIVAN]

It's hard to imagine anybody stopping Fed other than Nole. Injury/age-factor is 2nd favorite though.

Nobody thought Millman and Sandgren would pose him any problems, and look what ensued. Millman choked horribly. Then Fed saved all these 7 MP because he had no pressure on him, but it's going to be different at W in front of the whole world.

Thiem beat Fed on grass 4 years ago already.

 

[MeatTornado]

Nobody thought Millman and Sandgren would pose him any problems, and look what ensued. Millman choked horribly. Then Fed saved all these 7 MP because he had no pressure on him, but it's going to be different at W in front of the whole world.

Thiem beat Fed on grass 4 years ago already.

Actually a lot of people were worried about Millman.

And Sandgren would've been no problem if he hadn't gotten hurt. Just look at how the 1st set went.

 

[SpinToWin]

Lol at this thread. If anything, the obvious reason would have to be his age. But until we see reason to be certain that he is noticeably worse off this year relative to last year, it is adventurous to say that the previous year's finalist who had 2 championship points has no chance of winning.

 

[TennisaGoGo]

The 40-15 curse

Forever cursed to only have eight WImbledons

 

[Alfred Chicken]

I give him 0% chance. Mark my words.

You think Federer won't even play this year's Wimbledon?

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

We saw in Australia he's got about a hundred lives. Injured Gramps and players still bent over near the finish line. If Djokovic has a really bad day, winning Wimbledon would become a very realistic possibility for Fed.

 

[Hitman]

Yeah, like there are some real grass titans out there beside Djokovic....

Federer can still mop the floor with everyone else there because of his superior grass pedigree compared to the others, that is the sad state of affairs of the tour, who is going to beat him, Zverev, Tsitispas, Thiem, Shapovalov - all who lost first round last year? Or Murray, Wawrinka or Nadal - All who Federer schooled in their last meetings there? To say he is almost certain to lose is outlandish and quite honestly, wishful thinking. He has a chance even at this age on that surface.

 

[Shaolin]

No one thought he'd win 2017 AO.

Who knows what can happen...hes a great champion.

 

[Service Ace]

His last chance at a slam was last years Wimbledon. That run would have cemented his legacy. Now his career is over, GOAT status for all intents and purposes lost, and nothing left to play for that will ever salvage his image as a mental midge.

 

[tennisaddict]

We have been hearing this nonsense from 2009

 

[Zebrev]

Federer will win it. Noavk is about to burn himself out trying to become the GOAT like in 2016.

 

[Enceladus]

I expect Fed to exit in the quarters to someone like Raonic or Thiem.

I doubt Thiem will get this far in Wimbledon this year. The conditions in Wimbledon don't suit his game.

 

[weakera]

Fed looking good, will make the second week.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Fed won't win W 2020.

Not because Nole will be there, or because he's not physically fit.

But simply because each passing rd he will be reminded of 40-15: the pressure of erasing it by winning the tournament will scramble his already notorious fragile mind.

Like many players, Fed plays best when he feels no pressure and isn't expected to win.

Not the case this upcoming W. It will be his last realistic chance at this tournament, and his last opportunity to avoid going down in history as the one who choked away the slam race.

I expect Fed to exit in the quarters to someone like Raonic or Thiem.

Why is this being posted now when Wimbledon doesn't even begin for another 5 months? And you're really, really going out on a limb to tell us a man who will be almost 39 during Wimbledon isn't going to win it. The fact he's #3 in the world and just made a slam semi is a miracle in itself.

 

[BeatlesFan]

Miraculous indeed....or maybe more related to the miracles of modern stem cell therapy, which didn't exist 20 years ago.

 

[tennisaddict]

Fed looking good, will make the second week.

That will be a highlight if Rafa indeed makes the second week after Rosol, Darcis, Kyrgios, Bemelman and the pizza delivery boys.

 

[Roddick85]

It's funny, for the last 6-7 years, the same thing is said year after year...it's Fed last chance to win Wimbledon because of age, decline or [insert whatever reason]. Even if his window of opportunity is closing in every year, he still makes consistent deep runs at Wimbledon, making the SF or better 5 of the last 6 years. We all know Wimbledon is his favorite tournament, grass is his favorite surface and his best chance at another slam, so he tends to peak at that event, year after year. As bad as he may have looked at the AO this year, he still made the SF . Unless he's injured, I will never write him off at Wimbledon even if he's 40. Do I think he'll be the favorite going in? Obviously not, but he could surprise us.

 

[Jonesy]

Grass for Fed is like clay for Nadal.

It will heal all his tennis issues and he will find some way to get to that final.

If his opponent there is not Novak, he will take the 9th.

 

[terribleIVAN]

Now, are you really that naive to believe Fed isn't pursuing every sports enhancing therapy available today, just like all the other top players ?

If Novak still displays the same stamina and physical prowess pushing 37, i'll be the first to point out just the same.

We'll learn soon enough .

 

[PeoplesChamp]

Now, are you really that naive to believe Fed isn't pursuing every sports enhancing therapy available today, just like all the other top players ?

If Novak still displays the same stamina and physical prowess pushing 37, i'll be the first to point out just the same.

We'll learn soon enough .

Stamina was good for Fed. I thought he'd be more fatigued than that as well. Looking back it was the Berrettini match right square in the middle of the tournament that allowed him to recover for a run in the 2nd week. It's not often that you drop only 5 games in a 4th round. It was a blessing. That's what happened there. Also, lol at the physical prowess bit.

 

[tennisaddict]

Stamina was good for Fed. I thought he'd be more fatigued than that as well. Looking back it was the Berrettini match right square in the middle of the tournament that allowed him to recover for a run in the 2nd week. It's not often that you drop only 5 games in a 4th round. It was a blessing. That's what happened there. Also, lol at the physical prowess bit.

Everyone can use a little Berretini to a major final.

 

[PeoplesChamp]

Everyone can use a little Berretini to a major final.

The new Nishikori except healthy.

 

[Bartelby]

My guess is that Federer will be retired before the end of 2021, so if he wins even one slam it will be the final miracle.

 

[swizzy]

no player is better at not getting bogged down by tight losses. 40-15 is getting very old and a joke to the holder of the slam record

 

[Sport]

Thiem did not reach a single QF at Wimbledon in 6 attempts. His Wimby results - (1R, 2R, 2R, 4R, 1R, 1R).
Milos is hardly a factor after 2016.
It's hard to imagine anybody stopping Fed other than Nole.

1. Raonic was #3 in early 2017, so he definetely was still a factor in early 2017. Raonic also reached the WB 2019 SF, meaning he is still a good grass player. Raonic has a monster's serve, which makes him always dangerous at Wimbledon as long as he is healthy.

2. The idea that 38 years old Federer can only lose to Djokovic at Wimbledon is laughable. At Wimbledon 2018 he lost to Kevin Anderson. And he can lose to Alexander Zverev, who happens to have a powerful serve and a good game for grass as long as he is so focused as this year's AO. If Medvedev improves on grass, he can defeat Federer at Wimbledon. Thiem has already defeated Federer on grass in Stuttgart 2016 and can also defeat Federer at WB as long as he keeps improving outside clay (he reached the AO final this year despite having made nothing at the AO preciously). If Djokovic is in Federer's side of the draw and Federer defeats him in the SF, Nadal can beat a tired Federer (he has already defeated Federer at Wimbledon). In sum, I don't find it hard to imagine Federer losing to other players not named Novak. Federer is 38 years old and very injury-prone, he has also lost to servebots (Raonic, Anderson) in recent years.

 

[Fedinkum]

His odd is still better than 95% of the field.

 

[KINGROGER]

Well, I don't disagree. He did very well to cover up his physical decline with changes to his racquet, style etc. Also I would say his physical decline is a exaggerated by some people and he really does many things very well to stay in good shape. One thing is sure, the Federer with today’s game and the fitness of 2006 would make mincemeat out of the whole tour. However, that is hypothetical, because nobody can be young and experienced at the same time.

Fed doesn’t do anything better today, in any aspect than he did in 2006.

Maybe in 2014-2017 he hit his spots a bit better when serving.

 

[Sport]

Yeah, like there are some real grass titans out there beside Djokovic....

Federer can still mop the floor with everyone else there because of his superior grass pedigree compared to the others, that is the sad state of affairs of the tour, who is going to beat him, Zverev, Tsitispas, Thiem, Shapovalov - all who lost first round last year? Or Murray, Wawrinka or Nadal - All who Federer schooled in their last meetings there?

Of those you mention, I think Zverev, Thiem and Nadal (already did defeat Federer at Wimbledon) can defeat Federer at Wimbledon. Nadal would need Djokovic to exhaust Federer in the SF though. And last meeting between Federer and Zverev on grass was in 2017, 3 years ago. Federer is much older now. Thiem also defeated Federer on grass in 2016, and if he keeps improving outside clay he can defeat Federer at Wimbledon.

You didn't mention Medvedev but I would also give him a chance.

Crucially, Federer is 38 years old and very injury-prone. Last years he has lost to some servebots (Raonic, Anderson). I wouldn't be surprised if he gets injured and/or dips in form losing to another servebot.

 

[Subway Tennis]

Why is this being posted now when Wimbledon doesn't even begin for another 5 months? And you're really, really going out on a limb to tell us a man who will be almost 39 during Wimbledon isn't going to win it. The fact he's #3 in the world and just made a slam semi is a miracle in itself.

Agree. It's way too early for any type of meaningful predictions or discussion of Wimbledon form.

 

[Genious at Work]

Don't count Federer out. I don't think his chances of winning are bad at all.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Yeah, like there are some real grass titans out there beside Djokovic....

Federer can still mop the floor with everyone else there because of his superior grass pedigree compared to the others, that is the sad state of affairs of the tour, who is going to beat him, Zverev, Tsitispas, Thiem, Shapovalov - all who lost first round last year? Or Murray, Wawrinka or Nadal - All who Federer schooled in their last meetings there? To say he is almost certain to lose is outlandish and quite honestly, wishful thinking. He has a chance even at this age on that surface.

Exactly what I was saying yesterday to people that think clay has a weaker field than grass

 

[terribleIVAN]

Fed doesn’t do anything better today, in any aspect than he did in 2006.

He clearly has a better BH and goes for broke much better as well.

 

[MichaelNadal]

He clearly has a better BH and goes for broke much better as well.

Just bc Nadal can't attack it like he used to bc he gets to his FH corner slower, that isn't a real reflection of Fed's bh overall. 2017 got way too many people hype.

 

[BGod]

Facts say:
1 title in 7 years
Lost up CP
Lost up MP, 2-0
Lost up 2-1
Can't win tiebreaks
Month shy of 39.

 

[travlerajm]

Facts say he's still the #2 favorite according the Vegas smart guys.