Why nearly all clay prospects except Rafa are doing horrible this clay season?

[Sudacafan]

I don't know if this deserves a separate thread, but I would like to hear some opinions.
Rafa is winning all his matches and this basically has nothing to do with what I am asking.
The presumable clay prospects (Chung, Thiem, others) are not even losing to Rafa. They are losing earlier!
We can't even appoint a respectable Prince of clay, as last year, nor candidates at all.

 

[Deleted member 756486]

The gut-wrenching fear of being crushed by King Rafa lurks in the back of their heads when they play so they half-tank matches so they don’t have to face the king.

 

[Standaa]

Wasn’t there a thread on this already a few days back?

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ing-in-this-clay-season.616124/#post-12248276

 

[kevaninho]

Well I think its the tour in general. Look at the likes of Dimitrov, Del Potro, etc. On hard courts its the same story. Not anyone is consistent on any surface right now.
Federer coasted that AO victory for that very reason. The same as Nadal will probably do the same in Paris.
The tour is pretty grim right now, not just the clay season.

 

[Sudacafan]

Delete.

 

[Sudacafan]

Wasn’t there a thread on this already a few days back?

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/ind...ing-in-this-clay-season.616124/#post-12248276

Yep, it was related, you are right. This is based more in the underperforming of the clay prospects themselves.
Seems that everyone except Rafa forgot how to play on clay.

 

[Plamen1234]

Chung -clay hopeful/prospect - Yeah no.If Chung is clay prospect you as well might call Borna Coric clay prospect.Thiem is different story though but he is performing worse than the last year

 

[mike danny]

Well I think its the tour in general. Look at the likes of Dimitrov, Del Potro, etc. On hard courts its the same story. Not anyone is consistent on any surface right now.
Federer coasted that AO victory for that very reason. The same as Nadal will probably do the same in Paris.
The tour is pretty grim right now, not just the clay season.

End thread.

It's the entire tour that is in jeopardy, not just clay.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

There haven't been any clay prospect after RAFA.

 

[Sudacafan]

Chung -clay hopeful/prospect - Yeah no.If Chung is clay prospect you as well might call Borna Coric clay prospect.Thiem is different story though but he is performing worse than the last year

Chung was signaled by many to be in the clay discussion before anyone saw him set foot on the surface. That was only based on his allegedly effective defensive play style. As with lots of opinions around here of the “you heard it here first” kind, it was proven wrong so far.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

Chung was signaled by many to be in the clay discussion before anyone saw him set foot on the surface. That was only based on his allegedly effective defensive play style. As with lots of opinions around here of the “you heard it here first” kind, it was proven wrong so far.

He had decent showings last year.

 

[BeatlesFan]

The presumable clay prospects (Chung, Thiem, others) are not even losing to Rafa. They are losing earlier!

Because Thiem has been hideously overhyped as some sort of clay God, even though his one-dimensional game is exposed for what it is on every surface, including clay. He won the Argentina tourney this year beating world-beater Alijaz Bedene in the final. When he meets Nadal, he wins 2 games and gets bageled in the second set. He's a non-factor on clay against Nadal or any great clay courter. And Chung has never even won a tournament in his entire career, why is he even considered a clay prospect? These are the two guys supposed to dethrone Nadal?

 

[Phoenix1983]

10 years ago, Federer and Nadal were the top two players on Earth. Acceptable.

Today, Federer and Nadal are the top two players on Earth. They are well past their best. Despicable.

 

[sarmpas]

There haven't been any clay prospect after RAFA.

Ding-ding.

Alex Corretja and Alberto Costa from the 90s era don't even have a FO slam between them but on clay they'd kill Thiem, Zverev, Dimi, Chung, Coric and all the hyped up nextgen. That's a measure of how bad the quality is now.

 

[Raining hopes]

There haven't been any clay prospect after RAFA.

There were two, one even came before him, but RAFA took each one of their hypothetical 4-5 RGs and added to his own.

No regard at all to basic human decency and philanthropy RAFA has behaved as a young kid who never really gives up until he gets what he wants

 

[Hawaiian grip]

Get more clay and grass onto the tour, cut down on HC, and then we'll start having claycourters and grasscourters again. As simple as that. Most players outside of Southern Europe don't get that much clay court exposure to properly develop on the surface, let alone grass, which is only the surface of choice at very few elite clubs. The tour has been progressively turning into an all-HC tour, and people around here think clay is the problem...

 

[Sudacafan]

Because Thiem has been hideously overhyped as some sort of clay God, even though his one-dimensional game is exposed for what it is on every surface, including clay. He won the Argentina tourney this year beating world-beater Alijaz Bedene in the final. When he meets Nadal, he wins 2 games and gets bageled in the second set. He's a non-factor on clay against Nadal or any great clay courter. And Chung has never even won a tournament in his entire career, why is he even considered a clay prospect? These are the two guys supposed to dethrone Nadal?

Yep, that is what I am objecting presumably and overhyped opposition. So there's no opposition at all.

 

[mellowyellow]

Ding-ding.

Alex Corretja and Alberto Costa from the 90s era don't even have a FO slam between them but on clay they'd kill Thiem, Zverev, Dimi, Chung, Coric and all the hyped up nextgen. That's a measure of how bad the quality is now.

Wrong

 

[AlexanderTheGreat08]

Ding-ding.

Alex Corretja and Alberto Costa from the 90s era don't even have a FO slam between them but on clay they'd kill Thiem, Zverev, Dimi, Chung, Coric and all the hyped up nextgen. That's a measure of how bad the quality is now.

Costa won the RG in 2002 beating Ferrero , I Really doubt they can beat Thiem

 

[Mainad]

Ding-ding.

Alex Corretja and Alberto Costa from the 90s era don't even have a FO slam between them but on clay they'd kill Thiem, Zverev, Dimi, Chung, Coric and all the hyped up nextgen. That's a measure of how bad the quality is now.

Costa won the 2002 French Open (beat Ferrero in the final who went on to win it the following year).

 

[mightyrick]

I don't know if this deserves a separate thread, but I would like to hear some opinions.

The art and skill of being able to sustain a long rally is completely lost on the nextgen. That is a prerequisite to winning on clay.

I would also argue that while many nextgen players are "practicing" on clay these days, almost none of them are doing true Spanish-style clay drills. They are playing on clay with hardcourt footwork and hardcourt patterns. That simply will not get it done. The Spanish/Argentines/South Americans have been doing these drills for years. Things like the six-ball drill. The corner-to-corner two ball feed drill. Hours of drilling nothing but run-around inside-out forehands.

Anyone can do it. But you have to train in the style. It is no coincidence that Jim Courier is arguably the best American clay courter ever... and he had a Spanish coach in Jose Higueras.

Nobody outside of the Spaniards and South Americans trains for clay anymore. It's all hardcourt... all the time.

 

[mike danny]

Wrong

Really?

You don't think a FO finalist and a FO winner would beat these young pretenders?

 

[clareyont]

Well I think its the tour in general. Look at the likes of Dimitrov, Del Potro, etc. On hard courts its the same story. Not anyone is consistent on any surface right now.
Federer coasted that AO victory for that very reason. The same as Nadal will probably do the same in Paris.
The tour is pretty grim right now, not just the clay season.

Tennis in general now sucks. Weakest era ever candidate its been these past 2 years. The only good prime ATG player in tennis past 2 years is rafa. Luckily for tennis rafa hasnt been able to mop up. He didnt manage to do a CYGS or even get to four finals. Tennis wins cos if he did that literally would have made a true mockery of tennis. Although clay this year is that right now. Lone prime ATG lone good player at all right now mopping up and vulturing everything on clay and artificially being no1 in weak era. Its fine though this era will pass eventually and players will come through.

 

[Sudacafan]

The art and skill of being able to sustain a long rally is completely lost on the nextgen. That is a prerequisite to winning on clay.

I would also argue that while many nextgen players are "practicing" on clay these days, almost none of them are doing true Spanish-style clay drills. They are playing on clay with hardcourt footwork and hardcourt patterns. That simply will not get it done. The Spanish/Argentines/South Americans have been doing these drills for years. Things like the six-ball drill. The corner-to-corner two ball feed drill. Hours of drilling nothing but run-around inside-out forehands.

Anyone can do it. But you have to train in the style. It is no coincidence that Jim Courier is arguably the best American clay courter ever... and he had a Spanish coach in Jose Higueras.

Nobody outside of the Spaniards and South Americans trains for clay anymore. It's all hardcourt... all the time.

Thanks. This is the kind of comment I have been looking for. And what about non-Spanish Europeans? France, for instance, had good claycourters years ago.
As you are talking about Argies, it's good to notice that in spite of their undisputable general clay background, the two best players of the last decades (Nalbandian and Del Potro) are better hardcourters than claycourters. They seem to be just (notable) exceptions to the rule, as the new Argies continue to be clay oriented, I believe.

 

[sarmpas]

Costa won the 2002 French Open (beat Ferrero in the final who went on to win it the following year).

I stand corrected. I remember him losing one year to Muster in a earlier round.

 

[sarmpas]

Wrong

Costa won it once as has been pointed out to me.

 

[Mainad]

I stand corrected. I remember him losing one year to Muster in a earlier round.

He lost a 5 setter to Muster in the quarter-finals of 1995 RG, the year Muster went on to win it. He only ever beat Muster once in 6 meetings on clay in another 5 setter in Kitzbühel, the same year he lost to him at RG.

 

[mightyrick]

Thanks. This is the kind of comment I have been looking for. And what about non-Spanish Europeans? France, for instance, had good claycourters years ago.
As you are talking about Argies, it's good to notice that in spite of their undisputable general clay background, the two best players of the last decades (Nalbandian and Del Potro) are better hardcourters than claycourters. They seem to be just (notable) exceptions to the rule, as the new Argies continue to be clay oriented, I believe.

Well, Nalbandian actually had a better clay record than hard. Del Potro is *barely* better on hard. With those two guys, injuries and fitness played a huge factor in them not playing more on clay. I will also say that clay patterns and footwork translate extremely well to hardcourt... but not vice versa. The French are actually good clay courters (most of them also train in the Spanish style).

I think a lot of it has to do with proximity. Being in Europe, there is much more access to Spanish-style coaches and red clay facilities. Whereas North Americans/Russians/Aussies/Africans/East-West Asians have little if any access. So it really isn't surprising that the latter doesn't train in that style.

 

[KINGROGER]

Tennis in general now sucks. Weakest era ever candidate its been these past 2 years. The only good prime ATG player in tennis past 2 years is rafa. Luckily for tennis rafa hasnt been able to mop up. He didnt manage to do a CYGS or even get to four finals. Tennis wins cos if he did that literally would have made a true mockery of tennis. Although clay this year is that right now. Lone prime ATG lone good player at all right now mopping up and vulturing everything on clay and artificially being no1 in weak era. Its fine though this era will pass eventually and players will come through.

2017 RG - present makes 2014-2015 era look strong lol. 2016 was weak too.

 

[Thundergod]

Most of these guys were never that good on clay to begin with. Thiem and Diego are having slumps, but them being in normal form isn't going to change too much.

On a side note, it's funny how some talk about surface homogenization as the reason why the Big 4 dominate everywhere, but are coming up with all these reasons why everyone this year is worse on clay.

 

[Sudacafan]

Well, Nalbandian actually had a better clay record than hard. Del Potro is *barely* better on hard. With those two guys, injuries and fitness played a huge factor in them not playing more on clay. I will also say that clay patterns and footwork translate extremely well to hardcourt... but not vice versa. The French are actually good clay courters (most of them also train in the Spanish style).

I think a lot of it has to do with proximity. Being in Europe, there is much more access to Spanish-style coaches and red clay facilities. Whereas North Americans/Russians/Aussies/Africans/East-West Asians have little if any access. So it really isn't surprising that the latter doesn't train in that style.

I believe Nalbandian does not have better record at clay than hard. His best career results were not in clay. They include 2 M1000 and 1 WTF (all indoors hard) trophies and a Wimbledon runner up appearance. As per his own words, he has always preferred hard fast courts, even past his peak. There are 2 Roland Garros semis in his resume, but 1 AO and 1 USO semis also. An all surfaces player who preferred hard, I would say.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

Thanks. This is the kind of comment I have been looking for. And what about non-Spanish Europeans? France, for instance, had good claycourters years ago.
As you are talking about Argies, it's good to notice that in spite of their undisputable general clay background, the two best players of the last decades (Nalbandian and Del Potro) are better hardcourters than claycourters. They seem to be just (notable) exceptions to the rule, as the new Argies continue to be clay oriented, I believe.

Good Argentine clay courters are a thing of the past. In the mid 2000s there were a few like Coria, Puerta, and Gaudio.

Since then, all Argentines including Guillermo Canas have tailored their games to hard court. That is the general trend around the world and why the clay field has been so weak for over a decade.

 

[Sudacafan]

Good Argentine clay courters are a thing of the past. In the mid 2000s there were a few like Coria, Puerta, and Gaudio.

Since then, all Argentines including Guillermo Canas have tailored their games to hard court. That is the general trend around the world and why the clay field has been so weak for over a decade.

The second good Argy now is Schwartzman, who I believe is more clay oriented than hard.
Then we have a bunch of players ranked between #50 and #100. Of them, I would say that all except Leo Mayer are better claycourters. Talking about Delbonis and Pella. With Del Potro, I mentioned the 2016 Davis Cup finals winning team. Just retired, Monaco who miraculously reached top 10, is more a clay courter.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

The second good Argy now is Schwartzman, who I believe is more clay oriented than hard.
Then we have a bunch of players ranked between #50 and #100. Of them, I would say that all except Leo Mayer are better claycourters. Talking about Delbonis and Pella. With Del Potro, I mentioned the 2016 Davis Cup finals winning team. Just retired, Monaco who miraculously reached top 10, is more a clay courter.

Well Diego is like 5'3". He's clay focused out of necessity.

Anyway, I did say good clay courters. The career decisions that unathletic journeymen make are going to be different from the likes of Del Potro and Nalbandian.

The goal of an Argentine journeymen is probably to pick up the scraps that good players don't want. Like random ATP 250 titles on clay throughout the season.

 

[metsman]

the same reason as why all the prospects on any surface besides fed, rafa, and occasionally delpo/cilic are doing horrible.

 

[Sudacafan]

Well Diego is like 5'3". He's clay focused out of necessity.

Anyway, I did say good clay courters. The career decisions that unathletic journeymen make are going to be different from the likes of Del Potro and Nalbandian.

The goal of an Argentine journeymen is probably to pick up the scraps that good players don't want. Like random ATP 250 titles on clay throughout the season.

Diego is listed at 5’7”. I understand you could differ in +/-1 inch, but in 4”? Poor Diego.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

Diego is listed at 5’7”. I understand you could differ in +/-1 inch, but in 4”? Poor Diego.

Diego is a lot shorter than his listed height. Same as Donald Young.

edit: Probably around 5'5" actually. Young is 5'9" at best.

 

[mellowyellow]

Really?

You don't think a FO finalist and a FO winner would beat these young pretenders?

Wrong, Costa won the French...

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Nadl

 

[TheAverageFedererFan]

I don't know what happened with Thiem, last year he played much better.
Chung hasn't done that much on clay as he could have.

 

[Meles]

I don't know if this deserves a separate thread, but I would like to hear some opinions.
Rafa is winning all his matches and this basically has nothing to do with what I am asking.
The presumable clay prospects (Chung, Thiem, others) are not even losing to Rafa. They are losing earlier!
We can't even appoint a respectable Prince of clay, as last year, nor candidates at all.

We've had one masters and its not quite all roses:
1. Coric bounced by Djoko - looked tight to me in the match, but subsequent withdraw from vulturing Istanbul says it more than that and he did just crush PCB before your OP
2. Rublev bounced by Thiem in three setter in MC match and it appears will be out for a while with a bad back. One and done on clay.
3. Pouille - don't know what is going on, but he definitely fits your OP
4. Thiem and Goffin - both still getting back to their best after period of layoff (Nadal had a headstart on clay with Davis Cup)
5. Tsitsipas - very hard to be disappointed with his play, but we are still finding out just how complete his game is on clay. Probably based on stats at least the best prospect on clay since Djokovic who by the stats is the 2nd best on clay since 1991.
6. Tiafoe - he's an American, but just made finals in Estoril and still learning the surface.
7. Shapo - not expected to do well on clay, but rolling at Madrid at the time of your OP

I really have no idea what your whining about with this OP. 5, 6, & 7 are surprises to me. I'd day the only bummers are Pouille and Rublev. Even Edmund made the final of Marrakech so shouldn't leave him out.

Not making it to Rafa:
Thiem has lost to Tsitsi and Rafa
Shapo lost to Tsitsi and no one else so far
Tiafoe only lost to PCB in the finals of Estoril in his first red clay event of the year (Tiafoe deserves a wildcard into Rome, they've already wasted three on Italien chumps.)
Goffin lost to Nadal in Barcelona

The only one we can dump on for losing early is Pouille within the above universe. In conclusion you must be oblivious to the Tsitsipas to have written this tripe.

 

[Meles]

Ding-ding.

Alex Corretja and Alberto Costa from the 90s era don't even have a FO slam between them but on clay they'd kill Thiem, Zverev, Dimi, Chung, Coric and all the hyped up nextgen. That's a measure of how bad the quality is now.

LOL. Nice fantasy. So the clay game was really awesome when Costa won? Your a fool if your talking about Dimitrov as a clay prospect.

 

[Meles]

Well, Nalbandian actually had a better clay record than hard. Del Potro is *barely* better on hard. With those two guys, injuries and fitness played a huge factor in them not playing more on clay. I will also say that clay patterns and footwork translate extremely well to hardcourt... but not vice versa. The French are actually good clay courters (most of them also train in the Spanish style).

I think a lot of it has to do with proximity. Being in Europe, there is much more access to Spanish-style coaches and red clay facilities. Whereas North Americans/Russians/Aussies/Africans/East-West Asians have little if any access. So it really isn't surprising that the latter doesn't train in that style.

Are there some top players Delpo's beat on clay? I'd really like to know.

I do like your explanation, so how did Courier buck this trend and what would one look for when watching him on red clay? I would assume the Brits would go on your list including Kyle Edmund ( kinda looks like Courier, but does he move the feet right?)

 

[Meles]

Good Argentine clay courters are a thing of the past. In the mid 2000s there were a few like Coria, Puerta, and Gaudio.

Since then, all Argentines including Guillermo Canas have tailored their games to hard court. That is the general trend around the world and why the clay field has been so weak for over a decade.

This is just utter nonsense. The clay game has changed because the main tour went to Poly strings. The old style you are mourning would never work today on clay. Now hard court players like Djokovic can be great on clay. The clay field is actually much tougher with more top players a threat on the surface.

 

[Raining hopes]

Costa won the RG in 2002 beating Ferrero , I Really doubt they can beat Thiem

Costa, I have never seen him or at least don't remember seeing him but if you are talking about Ferrero not beating Thiem than you are wrong on so many levels.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

This is just utter nonsense. The clay game has changed because the main tour went to Poly strings. The old style you are mourning would never work today on clay. Now hard court players like Djokovic can be great on clay. The clay field is actually much tougher with more top players a threat on the surface.

What old style? Coria, Gaudio, and Puerta all used poly. Kuerten beat Federer at RG in 2004 in straight sets. Federer had already been using his current gut/luxilon ALU setup for several years and won his 1st Masters title on clay. Same with the rest of the tour by like 2001 at the latest.

Poly did not change the tour whatsoever in the mid 2000s. Kuerten himself was using poly by 1997. And Lleyton Hewitt won Wimbledon in 2002.

Even I was using poly in 2003 as a young teenager. Rofl.

 

[mellowyellow]

Costa, I have never seen him or at least don't remember seeing him but if you are talking about Ferrero not beating Thiem than you are wrong on so many levels.

Costa was likely a cheat, in the midst of a downward spiral not winning a tourney for 3 years or so and destroying a guy in Ferrero who he had trouble even beating in previous encounters after a few long matches... Ferrero was in fine form at that point too. I don't consider him a Great Clay courter as that performance was a suspect outlier for him. He would be troubled by quite a few of today.

Ferrero was a much better and more complete player and his overall results show that not even close to the same caliber. He wasn't invincible though, he might take the H2H but he would certainly accumulate his share of losses against the crop of today. The game isn't played the same as it was 12-15 years ago.

 

[NatF]

Costa won the RG in 2002 beating Ferrero , I Really doubt they can beat Thiem

Ferrero is twice the player of Thiem on clay and everywhere else

 

[Sudacafan]

Ferrero is twice the player of Thiem on clay and everywhere else

Yes. We were forgetting about the Mosquito.

 

[mightyrick]

Are there some top players Delpo's beat on clay? I'd really like to know.

Nadal, Nishikori, Dimitrov, Berdych, Cilic, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Verdasco, Soderling, Tsonga, Murray... um do I need to go on? Del Potro's issues on clay merely have to do with injuries and longevity. He was absent a lot. Still, Del Potro was raised on clay and trained in the Spanish style.

I do like your explanation, so how did Courier buck this trend and what would one look for when watching him on red clay? I would assume the Brits would go on your list including Kyle Edmund ( kinda looks like Courier, but does he move the feet right?)

I'm not sure about Edmund's training background. But Murray goes on the list, too. Murray has done a ton of Spanish-style training. Him and Nadal used to even drill together even when they were very young. Judy Murray was very smart with regards to getting Murray the very best coaching.

I don't know if Courier intended to buck the trend. I never really researched it... although I do think that would be interesting to know. I only know that he loved slow surfaces (from hearing him in interviews). Perhaps he just got lucky in the coaching that he had. Courier was well-known as one of the most fit players on the tour in his prime. I heard Agassi say in an interview one time that after some matches, Courier would actually run a couple miles round the facilities as a cool down after a match... while his opponents would go straight to the ice bath.