@Gary Duane and myself having been having statistical orgasms over Thiem in convo for much of 2018. Fractured ankle and getting back on track curbed my enthusiasm. He's just getting started and should roll at RG.

Unbelievably, Thiem and Rafa are in the same quarter in three straight M1000s on clay.

1 in 64 chance of this. If it happens at RG, that is 1 in 256.
Um, NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Statistical orgasms is about pleasure and being pumped up, and Thiem's stats this year have been a horror show.
I've been discussing a statistical nightmare.
As I've told you, anyone who is winning 42% of return points is usually around 32% of games. In fact, in 2011 one player was winning 42% of points and was a bit over 35% of games. He was red hot, winning 47% of his BPs on return.
In comparison, up until this week Thiem was at 36% of BPs.
Think about that. One guy is red hot for the year and wins 47% of BPs.
Thiem was at 36%. That's an 11% difference for two guys winning the same amount of points.
By the way, Thiem was -4% on service BPs, which is normally around 1% lower than service points. So he's been crap on important points.
There are two explanations:
1. Bad luck (which happens.)
2. Bad strategy on important points, which I blame on coaching.
By the way, I still think Thiem is the second best player on clay when he's playing up to his potential, but I don't like his coaching. Maybe he doesn't listen, or maybe he does but can't do what he's taught, but I doubt that. He's a REALLY intelligent guy.
Nadal doesn't have a lot of excuses for this match that aren't going to be issues ongoing, but he does have one in my mind; he had a 17 hour turnaround from the day before while despite a longer match Thiem had more than 24 hours. I believe that was enough to have him a bit off where Thiem playing well could really take advantage.
I don't understand clay court scheduling. IW and Miami gives a rest of one day between many matches, and there is spacing between them. In the clay season the winners play 5 days in a row, with almost no rest between events. This is not good for anyone and is probably a large reason why Nadal gets injured later in the year.