Why so many Federer-Djokovic semifinal draws in Big 4 era?

[lrdrdy]

If we look at 2008-2012 (peak big 4 era), Djokovic and Federer were in the same half of slam draws a lot. They were slated to meet in semifinals in 12/16 (75%) of the slams those years, and 10/12 (83%) if you exclude 2012.

Given that for all but one slam in that period, when one was world number 1 or 2, the other was 3 or 4, The projected meetings should be closer to 50% based on how the seeding is done.

I feel like Nadal benefited from getting to play Murray semis and not Djokovic/Federer in a lot of these slams. Or maybe not, since Murray beat him twice anyway.

If you flip a coin a dozen times, what are the chances of landing on the same side 10 of them. Its an interesting trend for sure.

 

[junior74]

 

[Tennis_Freak99]

 

[Rosstour]

The tour realized a long time ago that Nadal was their biggest draw. He got the most casual fans to tune in IMO

 

[socallefty]

If one guy wins everything for a few years as Federer was doing outside of clay, there might be a business reason for tournament organizers to see him lose a few times and pump up other players to draw more fans. Federer has become a beloved figure that the tennis establishment loves, once he stopped winning everything all the time outside of clay as he was between 2004-2008. But, there was a time when many fans including myself were not interested in switching to tennis on TV because it seemed like the outcome was predictable with Federer likely winning the title without much competition. Who knows if organizers did things with the draw to get people like me back into watching tennis and buying tickets.

 

[metsman]

Please redo post after running t-test, thanks.

 

[metsman]

To be fair, unless you want to argue 11 RG Nadal never really benefitted from this.

 

[lrdrdy]

To be fair, unless you want to argue 11 RG Nadal never really benefitted from this.

That just means he didnt use his luck (in this regard) well enough. I can think of many slams Federer would have made the final in during this period was he to face Murray in the semi and not Djokovic.

 

[metsman]

That just means he didnt use his luck (in this regard) well enough. I can think of many slams Federer would have made the final in during this period was he to face Murray in the semi and not Djokovic.

Yeah but he wouldn't have won any of those finals most likely. 2010 USO is the only one anyways, where he has little chance against Nadal, obviously could have faced Murray in 2011 AO in the semi but end result is the same.

 

[ghostofMecir]

If we look at 2008-2012 (peak big 4 era), Djokovic and Federer were in the same half of slam draws a lot. They were slated to meet in semifinals in 12/16 (75%) of the slams those years, and 10/12 (83%) if you exclude 2012.

Given that for all but one slam in that period, when one was world number 1 or 2, the other was 3 or 4, The projected meetings should be closer to 50% based on how the seeding is done.

I feel like Nadal benefited from getting to play Murray semis and not Djokovic/Federer in a lot of these slams. Or maybe not, since Murray beat him twice anyway.

If you flip a coin a dozen times, what are the chances of landing on the same side 10 of them. Its an interesting trend for sure.

1.6% chance.

 

[nolefam_2024]

And still Rafans laud their guy having greatest competition. Such BS.

Federer practically saved him in 2011.

 

[NoleFam]

The answer seems obvious to me but I would rather read other people's opinions...lol

 

[Subway Tennis]

OP I think you should take these findings to the highest court of arbitration possible and get justice for Fedr.

 

[Kralingen]

Federer and Nadal never meeting at the US Open is a complete travesty, joke, and grave injustice all in one

 

[Sudacafan]

Seedings in tennis are different than in the NBA playoffs, where in the semifinals the seed #1 would always meet seed #4 if they win out, (and seed #2 meet seed #3.)
In tennis, draws can also result in #1 facing #3, and #2 facing #4 in semis, if winning out,

 

[Sudacafan]

Federer and Nadal never meeting at the US Open is a complete travesty, joke, and grave injustice all in one

I was wondering how many times that encounter came short of being held for one match, and who of both was the one who couldn’t “keep” the appointment.

(I’m a bit lazy to do my own search on this)

 

[Fiero425]

I was wondering how many times that encounter came short of being held for one match, and who of both was the one who couldn’t “keep” the appointment.

(I’m a bit lazy to do my own search on this)

For the USO it's easy OTTH! In 2010 Federer failed to get thru Nole in the SF holding a couple match points against him! Rafa waiting in the final may have won 4, but his success has been as sporadic there as it is "down under" with only 1 championship!

 

[Sudacafan]

For the USO it's easy OTTH! In 2010 Federer failed to get thru Nole in the SF holding a couple match points against him! Rafa may have won 4, but his success has been as sporatic there as it is "down under" with only 1 championship!

I also remember:
Nadal losing to Delpo in USO 2009 SF, thus negating a Fedal final.
Federer losing to Delpo in USO 2017 QF, negating a Fedal SF.
And I am not sure if there are more of these.

 

[Fiero425]

I also remember:
Nadal losing to Delpo in USO 2009, thus negating a Fedal final.
Federer losing to Delpo in USO 2017 QF, negating a Fedal SF.
And I am not sure if there are more of these.

I figured the failure was on Nadal's part since Fed made 6 finals in a row, then got to 2015 final when Nadal was in a funk and being upset all over the place!

 

[Kralingen]

I was wondering how many times that encounter came short of being held for one match, and who of both was the one who couldn’t “keep” the appointment.

(I’m a bit lazy to do my own search on this)

One match away:

‘08 Nadal (Olympic Gold and Channel Slam winning) going down in 4 to Murray was pretty bad.

‘09 Nadal - slightly injured but got destroyed by DelPo

‘10 and ‘11 Fed, obviously had MPs to face Nadal but there was some Novak guy on the other end. Tbh Fed should have won at least one of those.

‘13 Fed lost to Robredo (lol) one match before a QF showdown with Rafa but he was probably in the worst shape of his career

‘17 Fed losing to Del Potro in the quarters directly before a SF with Nadal as well

two matches away:

‘19 Fed lost in the QFs and would have only had to beat Medvedev to set up a final
‘06 Nadal lost to Youzhny then would have had to beat roddick to set up a final
‘07 Nadal lost to Ferrer then said “now is not the time to talk about my injuries”

They seemed to alternate healthy years at the USO, ‘12 Nadal injured, ‘13 Fed injured, ‘14 Nadal injured, ‘15 Nadal playing crap, ‘16 both finished, ‘18 Nadal hurt and retired+Fed bad, ‘20/21 both skipping

Basically it’s a little bit of Rafa’s body falling apart after RG+Wimby finals a lot, a bit of Rafa being bad at the USO pre-2010, a bit of 40-15, a bit of Fed being in mostly poor form post ‘11, and a bit of bad luck with the draw

 

[Sudacafan]

For the USO it's easy OTTH! In 2010 Federer failed to get thru Nole in the SF holding a couple match points against him! Rafa waiting in the final may have won 4, but his success has been as sporadic there as it is "down under" with only 1 championship!

I also remember:
Nadal losing to Delpo in USO 2009 SF, thus negating a Fedal final.
Federer losing to Delpo in USO 2017 QF, negating a Fedal SF.
And I am not sure if there are more of these.

What you said about USO 2010, happened exactly again in 2011. Fed lost to Nole in semis squandering two MPs.
That was also a Fedal final negated.
Nadal won 2010 final (achieving his career GS), and Nole won 2011 final.

 

[Sudacafan]

One match away:

‘08 Nadal (Olympic Gold and Channel Slam winning) going down in 4 to Murray was pretty bad.

‘09 Nadal - slightly injured but got destroyed by DelPo

‘10 and ‘11 Fed, obviously had MPs to face Nadal but there was some Novak guy on the other end. Tbh Fed should have won at least one of those.

‘13 Fed lost to Robredo (lol) one match before a QF showdown with Rafa but he was probably in the worst shape of his career

‘17 Fed losing to Del Potro in the quarters directly before a SF with Nadal as well

two matches away:

‘19 Fed lost in the QFs and would have only had to beat Medvedev to set up a final
‘06 Nadal lost to Youzhny then would have had to beat roddick to set up a final
‘07 Nadal lost to Ferrer then said “now is not the time to talk about my injuries”

They seemed to alternate healthy years at the USO, ‘12 Nadal injured, ‘13 Fed injured, ‘14 Nadal injured, ‘15 Nadal playing crap, ‘16 both finished, ‘18 Nadal hurt and retired+Fed bad, ‘20/21 both skipping

Basically it’s a little bit of Rafa’s body falling apart after RG+Wimby finals a lot, a bit of Rafa being bad at the USO pre-2010, a bit of 40-15, a bit of Fed being in mostly poor form post ‘11, and a bit of bad luck with the draw

Thanks for the full report. I knew there were lots of missed opportunities for a USO Fedal.

 

[Fiero425]

One match away:

‘08 Nadal (Olympic Gold and Channel Slam winning) going down in 4 to Murray was pretty bad.

‘09 Nadal - slightly injured but got destroyed by DelPo

‘10 and ‘11 Fed, obviously had MPs to face Nadal but there was some Novak guy on the other end. Tbh Fed should have won at least one of those.

‘13 Fed lost to Robredo (lol) one match before a QF showdown with Rafa but he was probably in the worst shape of his career

‘17 Fed losing to Del Potro in the quarters directly before a SF with Nadal as well

two matches away:

‘19 Fed lost in the QFs and would have only had to beat Medvedev to set up a final
‘06 Nadal lost to Youzhny then would have had to beat roddick to set up a final
‘07 Nadal lost to Ferrer then said “now is not the time to talk about my injuries”

They seemed to alternate healthy years at the USO, ‘12 Nadal injured, ‘13 Fed injured, ‘14 Nadal injured, ‘15 Nadal playing crap, ‘16 both finished, ‘18 Nadal hurt and retired+Fed bad, ‘20/21 both skipping

Basically it’s a little bit of Rafa’s body falling apart after RG+Wimby finals a lot, a bit of Rafa being bad at the USO pre-2010, a bit of 40-15, a bit of Fed being in mostly poor form post ‘11, and a bit of bad luck with the draw

Nadal only loses a match if injured; didn't you know that? Uncle Tony made sure we heard all about it before, during, and after a loss! RUDE!

 

[Subway Tennis]

Federer and Nadal never meeting at the US Open is a complete travesty, joke, and grave injustice all in one

I believe it is the tennis gods punishing the new york crowds for their boorish behaviour over the years.

 

[Kralingen]

I believe it is the tennis gods punishing the new york crowds for their boorish behaviour over the years.

I do have to admit that I have no idea which way the crowd would lean: Nadal seems to get louder cheers in New York than anywhere (his support in France is actually shockingly tame for what he’s achieved there) while Fed post-Anna Wintourization was basically an honorary American there. Either way the atmosphere (and ticket prices) would have been insane especially in ‘10 or ‘11.

 

[Sudacafan]

One match away:

‘08 Nadal (Olympic Gold and Channel Slam winning) going down in 4 to Murray was pretty bad.

‘09 Nadal - slightly injured but got destroyed by DelPo

‘10 and ‘11 Fed, obviously had MPs to face Nadal but there was some Novak guy on the other end. Tbh Fed should have won at least one of those.

‘13 Fed lost to Robredo (lol) one match before a QF showdown with Rafa but he was probably in the worst shape of his career

‘17 Fed losing to Del Potro in the quarters directly before a SF with Nadal as well

two matches away:

‘19 Fed lost in the QFs and would have only had to beat Medvedev to set up a final
‘06 Nadal lost to Youzhny then would have had to beat roddick to set up a final
‘07 Nadal lost to Ferrer then said “now is not the time to talk about my injuries”

They seemed to alternate healthy years at the USO, ‘12 Nadal injured, ‘13 Fed injured, ‘14 Nadal injured, ‘15 Nadal playing crap, ‘16 both finished, ‘18 Nadal hurt and retired+Fed bad, ‘20/21 both skipping

Basically it’s a little bit of Rafa’s body falling apart after RG+Wimby finals a lot, a bit of Rafa being bad at the USO pre-2010, a bit of 40-15, a bit of Fed being in mostly poor form post ‘11, and a bit of bad luck with the draw

About the 6 one match away occurrences: 2 were caused by Djokovic, 2 by Del Potro, 1 by Murray, and one by Robredo.
The loss to Robredo was maybe a blessing in disguise, as Robredo could only take 4 games from Nadal in the subsequent QF match.

Edit: Summary
Considering the 6 one match away missed opportunities, Federer did not show 4 times (the last 4), and Nadal did not show twice (the first two).
Interesting to note that 4 of the 6 missed opportunities came in consecutive years (2008 thru 2011), and they all would have produced Fedal USO finals if Fedal hadn’t lost those semis.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I do have to admit that I have no idea which way the crowd would lean: Nadal seems to get louder cheers in New York than anywhere (his support in France is actually shockingly tame for what he’s achieved there) while Fed post-Anna Wintourization was basically an honorary American there. Either way the atmosphere (and ticket prices) would have been insane especially in ‘10 or ‘11.

At Melbourne, the crowd does cheer for Federer just a bit more but Nadal gets a lot of support as well. Definitely same thing will be there in NYC. Federer is super popular in NYC even after not winning the title for 13 years.

 

[Kralingen]

Nadal only loses a match if injured; didn't you know that? Uncle Tony made sure we heard all about it before, during, and after a loss! RUDE!

It’s funny bc if you really distill why they haven’t met at the US Open, it’s basically-peak rusty injured Bull, and-peak 40-15 choking Fed lol.

Nadal also was pretty meh on HC pre-2010, AO ‘09 his only HC final. Federer, additionally, was just as meh post-2010, only one championship-level run after 2011 (in 2015) which is pretty shocking given his earlier success there. Their ‘USO Primes’ overlapped maybe 2 or 3 years total and Murray/Djokovic got in the way.

 

[Daniel Andrade]

About the 6 one match away occurrences: 2 were caused by Djokovic, 2 by Del Potro, 1 by Murray, and one by Robredo.
The loss to Robredo was maybe a blessing in disguise, as Robredo could only take 4 games from Nadal in the subsequent QF match.

Blessing? I was dying to see that massacre

 

[Sudacafan]

Blessing? I was dying to see that massacre

Sorry, the default setting in TTW is that you’re a Fed fan when your preference is unknown.

 

[Subway Tennis]

I do have to admit that I have no idea which way the crowd would lean: Nadal seems to get louder cheers in New York than anywhere (his support in France is actually shockingly tame for what he’s achieved there) while Fed post-Anna Wintourization was basically an honorary American there. Either way the atmosphere (and ticket prices) would have been insane especially in ‘10 or ‘11.

Agree. It would be some of the craziest crowd atmosphere ever if it were to have happened back then, or even now.

Do you think we have one last chance of seeing it next year?

 

[ghostofMecir]

‘07 Nadal lost to Ferrer then said “now is not the time to talk about my injuries”

loool I had forgotten about that. Lol

 

[ForehandRF]

It’s funny bc if you really distill why they haven’t met at the US Open, it’s basically-peak rusty injured Bull, and-peak 40-15 choking Fed lol.

Nadal also was pretty meh on HC pre-2010, AO ‘09 his only HC final. Federer, additionally, was just as meh post-2010, only one championship-level run after 2011 (in 2015) which is pretty shocking given his earlier success there. Their ‘USO Primes’ overlapped maybe 2 or 3 years total and Murray/Djokovic got in the way.

If you think about it, Nadal and Federer have met only one time in the summer North American Hardcourt season and that in Cincy 2013.On the other hand, Federer and Djokovic have played there more than 10 times.In fact, Nadal and Federer have played the vast majority of their outdoor matches in the first half of the year, pre Wimbledon

 

[lucky13]

https://www.playthegame.org/fileadmin/image/knowledgebank/Tennisdraws_Katarina_Pijetlovic.pdf

 

[Sudacafan]

If you think about it, Nadal and Federer have met only one time in the summer North American Hardcourt season and that in Cincy 2013.On the other hand, Federer and Djokovic have played there more than 10 times.In fact, Nadal and Federer have played the vast majority of their outdoor matches in the first half of the year, pre Wimbledon

This is an indeed very interesting anecdote for outdoor matches.
Fedal first half - Fedovic second half

 

[Deleted member 779124]

Some people thought these draws were rigged draws based on thee amount of Fedovic slam meetings in that period.

 

[PilotPete]

The seed numbers were about 50% distributed during drawings. They just happened to flip flop in their rankings resulting in a skew in meetings.

 

[TTMR]

Unlike the Johnny Come Latelies from Reddit who have arrived here lately, I was there at the time. The goal was always to manufacture a rivalry to end Fed's hegemony off-clay by elevating Nadal to a quasi-equal on other surfaces. There were only two ways to do it. Rig the draws and slow the courts.

Rivalries are always more alluring and ratings-grabbing than one guy dominating the tour for a decade or more. So that's what they did. Quite successfully, I might add.

 

[ForehandRF]

.

 

[mike danny]

Unlike the Johnny Come Latelies from Reddit who have arrived here lately, I was there at the time. The goal was always to manufacture a rivalry to end Fed's hegemony off-clay by elevating Nadal to a quasi-equal on other surfaces. There were only two ways to do it. Rig the draws and slow the courts.

Rivalries are always more alluring and ratings-grabbing than one guy dominating the tour for a decade or more. So that's what they did. Quite successfully, I might add.

If that were true, you'd think they'd have done something about Djokovic by now.

 

[TTMR]

If that were true, you'd think they'd have done something about Djokovic by now.

They can only work with what they have. And they don't have much.

 

[Kralingen]

loool I had forgotten about that. Lol

To this day one of the funniest quotes from any professional athlete, and the best part is he said it without any hint of irony

 

[Cashman]

Given that for all but one slam in that period, when one was world number 1 or 2, the other was 3 or 4, The projected meetings should be closer to 50% based on how the seeding is done.

Overly simplistic given the sample size

if you were a scientist this would be referred to as p-hacking

 

[lrdrdy]

Overly simplistic given the sample size

if you were a scientist this would be referred to as p-hacking

Can you explain the flaw in my logic, I don’t think theres much to simplify, the draws were skewed much more to one set of matchups.

 

[Cashman]

Can you explain the flaw in my logic, I don’t think theres much to simplify, the draws were skewed much more to one set of matchups.

The draws were the draws

There are a very large number of combinations between a very large number of players in any grand slam draw so if you go looking for a small sample (2 players over 12 tournaments) it is very easy to find a combination that seems statistically significant

If you were to consider all potential pairs of seeded ATP players, and how often they appeared in the same side of the draw across all tournaments, I am sure you would find that Djokovic and Federer‘s situation is not that unique

i.e. something that seems unlikely in isolation is often not that unlikely to occur, given sufficient time and opportunity

 

[mr tonyz]

If we look at 2008-2012 (peak big 4 era), Djokovic and Federer were in the same half of slam draws a lot. They were slated to meet in semifinals in 12/16 (75%) of the slams those years, and 10/12 (83%) if you exclude 2012.

Given that for all but one slam in that period, when one was world number 1 or 2, the other was 3 or 4, The projected meetings should be closer to 50% based on how the seeding is done.

I feel like Nadal benefited from getting to play Murray semis and not Djokovic/Federer in a lot of these slams. Or maybe not, since Murray beat him twice anyway.

If you flip a coin a dozen times, what are the chances of landing on the same side 10 of them. Its an interesting trend for sure.

This period is most likely the closest to the Big-3 Prime/Peak overlaps that we'll ever get.

Slams

Nadal (8)
Federer (5)
Djokovic (5)

Year-End #1s

Nadal (2)
Djokovic (2)
Federer (1)

Note: Fedal completed respective career slams during this period both in terms of winning all 4 as well as winning their respective weakest slams the one time throughout their career's in back-to-back slams in '09.

Note: Djokovic enjoyed his highest level ever in 2011 & winning 3/4 with a Runner-Up @ The French in 2012.

Slam ratio Big-3 vs Field 18/20 (2 sets away from a perfect 20/20 )Fedovic losing out in US Open 5 setters in '09/'12 (Delpo/Murray)

This is quite reaffirming as a Fed fan that really provides a ton of evidence to disclaim the Weak-Era Storm Cloud that will forever haunt Federer.

 

[mr tonyz]

Messed up my edit lol. Ignore this post as i don't know how to remove a post.

 

[PMChambers]

12/16 flip one draw and 13/15 which is statistically fine.

 

[DjokoLand]

And still Rafans laud their guy having greatest competition. Such BS.

Federer practically saved him in 2011.

Even as a Djokovic fan I’m not confident Djokovic beats Nadal. Yes he was owning Nadal and held the mental edge but it’s still RG.
The one thing Fed did was ruin the final though. He deserved to win that SF but it made the F so predictable

 

[D.Nalby12]

12/16 is too much !