Win % + games, set, points and DR - 52 weeks and 2022

[Chanwan]

Yes, this is another Alcaraz thread. But based on stats. It's a bit long, but bear with me if you care for stats.

First, tour leaders in terms of win percentage in the past 52 weeks. Note that Alcaraz is 6th (after Rafa, Djoko, Med, Z and Ruud) - same placement for winning deciding sets
Alcaraz is 2nd best after winning the first set in the past 52 weeks (losing but one match), whereas he's 14th best after losing the first (I expect the latter to go up)

Now, let's have a a look at 2022, Alcaraz got the 2nd best win percentage after Rafa (90 and 95 %), ahead of Sinner, Ruud and Rublev.
There are 7 players win a win percentage higher than 75 % (Rafa, Alcaraz, Sinner, Rublev, Ruud, Fritz and Medvedev - the latter 3 all on 76-76,5).

Let's have a look at how many percent of the set, games and points, the top-4 win + their dominance ratio

• Alcaraz: 83,7, 60,7, 54,7 %, respectively. DR: 1,30
• Rafa: 81,0, 59,1 & 54,1 %. DR: 1,27
• Sinner: 76,6, 56,0, 53,0 %. DR: 1,19
• Rublev: 72,7, 56,2, 53,0 %. DR: 1,22

In short, Alcaraz is leading each category.

The 2nd number is the one, I want you to pay attention to. Percentage of games won, 60,7 % for Alcaraz. Djokovic went 60,8 % for 2021 (albeit with a higher DR, 1,38). Djoko's 59,4 % in games won for his career.
And if we look at Rafa since 2005, he's been between 57,3 % (2015) and 63,2 % (2019). He's 59,9 % for his entire career. Alcaraz was 52,9 % in 2021.

If we break the 60,7 % down, Alcaraz has won 86,8 % of his service games and 34,8 % of his return games (Novak 2021: 87,6 and 33,8 %, Rafa 2022: (86,5 and 30,1 %***).
In other words: When we purely look at games won, 2022 Alcaraz is neck and neck with 2021 Novak and significantly better than 2022 Rafa.

As for DR, Carlos is 1,30 so far in 2022. Novak is 1,29 for his career, Rafa and Roger are both 1,30 for theirs.

As @Gary Duane would be the first to tell you, 60,7 % is slam winning material.

Note, the numbers above do not factor level of opposition in (but 9 of Alcaraz' 20 matches have been against top-15 and only 3 against 60+ ranked players).
And Alcaraz' numbers are based on a fairly small sample size (20 matches), which could be him just having a run of form.
But 60,7 % is more than 4 % better than Zverev's best full season (57,3 in 2021, 57,7 so far in 2022) and almost 2 % higher than Medvedev's best season (2021, 58,9 %).

Conclusion: The hype has a basis in statistical reality as far as I can tell.

Thoughts?

Some sources aside from the links above:

Tennis Abstract: Carlos Alcaraz Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Rafael Nadal Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Roger Federer Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Novak Djokovic Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Daniil Medvedev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Alexander Zverev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

*** Rafa's games won here doesn't add up to the 59,1 games won, I think the 86,5+30,1 = 58,3 % is more correct, but not sure)

**** Stats wizards: My abilities does not allow me to have a look at say, Zverev's 2nd half of 2021 for comparison. If any of you want to give other great runs a statistical go, I'd be happy to see it.

 

[D.Nalby12]

So his S + R return numbers ~ 120. Slam winning level right there. If his serve games won hits 90 - he will become unstoppable...

 

[Chanwan]

So his S + R return numbers ~ 120. Slam winning level right there. If his serve games won hits 90 - he will become unstoppable...

In short, the above can be boiled down to exactly that yes .
Which is slightly above Rafa, Djoko and Fed - viewed over their whole careers.

• Fed's best season measured by total games won = 2006 = 61,7 => 123,4 (but "just" 59,6 = 119,2 in 2007)
• Rafa's -II- = 2019 = 63,2 = 126,4
• Djoko's -II- = 2011 = 62,8 = 125,6
• Pete's -II- = 1997 = 59,7 = 119,4*
• Carlos in 2022 = 60,7 = 121,4

* Serve-based players tend to be in slam-winning form with slightly fewer games won than say, Rafa + it's harder to win a high percentage of games on fast surfaces.

 

[Chanwan]

@zagor @helterskelter @Zoid @NonP @vanioMan @NatF
@DSH @Rafa the King @Vamos Rafa Nadal @clayqueen @RF-18 @Noleberic123 @NoleFam @Backspin1183 @MichaelNadal @Aabye5 @beard @Imperator
@ChaelAZ @Checkmate @Steve0904 @Sport @Kralingen @mike danny @aldeayeah @ollinger @socallefty @junior74 @The Blond Blur @abmk
thoughts?

 

[aldeayeah]

@zagor @helterskelter @Zoid @NonP @vanioMan @NatF
@DSH @Rafa the King @Vamos Rafa Nadal @clayqueen @RF-18 @Noleberic123 @NoleFam @Backspin1183 @MichaelNadal @Aabye5 @beard @Imperator
@ChaelAZ @Checkmate @Steve0904 @Sport @Kralingen @mike danny @aldeayeah @ollinger @socallefty @junior74 @The Blond Blur @abmk
thoughts?

I've already said, if he keeps it up he'll be a contender for everything. And if he keeps improving he may dominate.

But those are still "ifs"

Been following Alcaraz closely since the Tsitsipas USO match. He's still vulnerable against top players imo. He can be out-consistencied and his defensive game is not fully mature. However, if the pieces fall right, he can succeed even with his current game.

 

[Chanwan]

I've already said, if he keeps it up he'll be a contender for everything. And if he keeps improving he may dominate.

But those are still "ifs"

Been following Alcaraz closely since the Tsitsipas match. He's still vulnerable against top players imo. He can be out-consistencied and his defensive game is not fully mature. However, if the pieces fall right, he can succeed even with his current game.

Agree on the bolded. If he keeps up 60,7 % for the year, that's easily top-3 and possibly no. 1.

"He can be out-consistencied and his defensive game is not fully mature"
Agree - but I think he's getting better at it tournament by tournament

 

[NeutralFan]

No offense to op but This mean nothing if it doesn't translate in to slam. Great players bring their best at slams ,he gotta prove himself there. He is a good news for tennis World but let's see if he win slams before Djokodal retire or are forced to retire.

 

[Zoid]

Yeah you're crunching numbers that matter and what the numbers say is that the kid is slam-material now. If he plays to his current ability he is going to be hard to stop and is a major threat from now on.

People can think over-hyped and to be honest, we never really know how a player responds in the big moments (Zverev in slams) but this kid just feels like the real deal. We will see, but I'm bullish for a slam final in 2022

 

[ADuck]

I've already said, if he keeps it up he'll be a contender for everything. And if he keeps improving he may dominate.

But those are still "ifs"

Been following Alcaraz closely since the Tsitsipas USO match. He's still vulnerable against top players imo. He can be out-consistencied and his defensive game is not fully mature. However, if the pieces fall right, he can succeed even with his current game.

I agree btw. Out of curiousity, what do you think he needs to do to improve it?

 

[NeutralFan]

I agree btw. Out of curiousity, what do you think he needs to do to improve it?

Grow 2-4inches taller , may be?

 

[ADuck]

Grow 2-4inches taller , may be?

 

[aldeayeah]

I agree btw. Out of curiousity, what do you think he needs to do to improve it?

just gain experience against top level guys tbh

 

[ADuck]

just gain experience against top level guys tbh

I meant like what aspects of his defensive game do you think he needs to improve upon?

 

[NeutralFan]

I meant like what aspects of his defensive game do you think he needs to improve upon?

Shot tolerance , still coughing lots of unf.errors!

Plus - that serve needs to be improved big time.

 

[aldeayeah]

Shot tolerance , still coughing lots of unf.errors!

I think his shot tolerance is OK. You can't hit as many winners as he does without bleeding some UEs.

I just think he goes for too much in some positions where he shouldn't be attacking, that's why I said experience could fix that.

 

[NeutralFan]

I think his shot tolerance is OK. You can't hit as many winners as he does without bleeding some UEs.

I just think he goes for too much in some positions where he shouldn't be attacking, that's why I said experience could fix that.

Well, he hits many winners but key to dominate is checking unfers . His shot tolerance is not elite . Look at Djokovic and Nadal they can turn sure shot winners like shots in to a neutral rally without difficulty. Also, his height doesn't give him the reach that Djokovic or Nadal get. I know he's listed 185cm but not even Nadal is 185cm , who towers Alcaraz.

 

[aldeayeah]

Well, he hits many winners but key to dominate is checking unfers . His shot tolerance is not elite . Look at Djokovic and Nadal they can turn sure shot winners like shots in to a neutral rally without difficulty. Also, his height doesn't give him the reach that Djokovic or Nadal get. I know he's listed 185cm but not even Nadal is 185cm , who towers Alcaraz.

You don't need height to be able to defend from the back, you need mobility and solid groundstroke technique. Ferrer, Coria or Schwartzman are/were excellent defenders while being some of the shortest top players.

Indeed Carlos is not as good as turning defense into offense as young Djokodal were, but that's just not what his game is about.

 

[NeutralFan]

You don't need height to be able to defend from the back, you need mobility and solid groundstroke technique. Ferrer, Coria or Schwartzman are/were excellent defenders while being some of the shortest top players.

Indeed he's not as good as turning defense into offense as young Djokodal were, but that's just not what his game is about.

i am not talking about defense to offense here ,i am talking about neutralising sure shot winners in to neutral rally or surviving the point ( that has been game changer for both against Fed ) also, his FH can't take the heat if ball is with pace and has depth ( cough error) As you said his defense to offense is not as good, i would add his passing shots to it. with time he will improve, look i might not like him for some reason but i am just stating these things after watching tennis over last 3 decade. As far as height is concerned , mobility with height will always be at advantage over just mobility. He will improve without a doubt and he has got great potential.

Btw we are playing city in few minutes , see you later , mate!

 

[NonP]

U called? It ain't easy being right about everything all the time.

A few things:

• 1st off you can't just add SGW% and RGW% and split the total, cuz you generally don't play the same # of service and return games (unsurprisingly top men tend to play more of the former). UTS ain't perfect cuz its GW%s (overall, service & return) don't include TBs - if you see a discrepancy between UTS's overall GW%s and mine, that's why - but it's a good starting point as long as you see to it that the top guys played enough games for the year/season (I'd say at least 200 overall for clay and 100 for grass) and exclude DC* and de facto exos like the WTC/LC.
• The 60% Club is indeed an exclusive bunch and admission has historically been a virtual must for Slam championship/dominance (present or career, season or tournament), but that goes mostly for all surfaces or hard/grass. On clay you generally want a little more cushion, as the likes of Sampras, ('96) Muster, ('01) Ferrero and Murray would attest.
• Many a player has put together a hot streak only to lose steam. Take '03 Coria who won a whopping 74.3% of his games (194/261) on clay in the monthlong period following Wimbledon, which contributed to his equally eye-popping 64.0% for the year. That's 3rd only to Nadal's and ('92) Courier's since '91, reinforcing the understandable notion that he's the best dirtballer not to win a FO in the OE. But in the CC season proper? 62.1% (330/531) - still damn good, but not quite good enough (again on dirt) to withstand a top player zoning at the right time, as Verkerk of all people showed him at RG. The key is maintaining that level throughout the season.
• Fancy stats like DR are worse than useless.

*Going forward I'm thinking about including World Group rubbers which presumably don't feature many gimmes vs. 1560279th-ranked journeymen, but I'll have to take a closer look before I make my infallible decision.

Which is a long way of saying it's still too premature to declare Alcaraz the next big thing. But the kid is still only 18 years old. Let's give him some time before we hype him to the skies or dismiss him as another NextGen mug.

 

[Chanwan]

Yeah you're crunching numbers that matter and what the numbers say is that the kid is slam-material now. If he plays to his current ability he is going to be hard to stop and is a major threat from now on.

People can think over-hyped and to be honest, we never really know how a player responds in the big moments (Zverev in slams) but this kid just feels like the real deal. We will see, but I'm bullish for a slam final in 2022

To me as well. Add that to the stats and I'm pretty bullish too

 

[MichaelNadal]

Too much thinking for me right now bestie lol

 

[Chanwan]

No offense to op but This mean nothing if it doesn't translate in to slam. Great players bring their best at slams ,he gotta prove himself there. He is a good news for tennis World but let's see if he win slams before Djokodal retire or are forced to retire.

Fair point. My point is merely that unless you have a mental block with slams - which I've seen no indication that Alcaraz has (but it's too early to tell) - winning more games than anyone else is a pretty good starting point for being relevant in the slams.

 

[MichaelNadal]

 

[Chanwan]

U called? It ain't easy being right about everything all the time.

A few things:

• 1st off you can't just add SGW% and RGW% and split the total, cuz you generally don't play the same # of service and return games (unsurprisingly top men tend to play more of the former). UTS ain't perfect cuz its GW%s (overall, service & return) don't include TBs - if you see a discrepancy between UTS's overall GW%s and mine, that's why - but it's a good starting point as long as you see to it that the top guys played enough games for the year/season (I'd say at least 200 overall for clay and 100 for grass) and exclude DC* and de facto exos like the WTC/LC.
• The 60% Club is indeed an exclusive bunch and admission has historically been a virtual must for Slam championship/dominance (present or career, season or tournament), but that goes mostly for all surfaces or hard/grass. On clay you generally want a little more cushion, as the likes of Sampras, ('96) Muster, ('01) Ferrero and Murray would attest.
• Many a player has put together a hot streak only to lose steam. Take '03 Coria who won a whopping 74.3% of his games (194/261) on clay in the monthlong period following Wimbledon, which contributed to his equally eye-popping 64.0% for the year. That's 3rd only to Nadal's and ('92) Courier's since '91, reinforcing the understandable notion that he's the best dirtballer not to win a FO in the OE. But in the CC season proper? 62.1% (330/531) - still damn good, but not quite good enough (again on dirt) to withstand a top player zoning at the right time, as Verkerk of all people showed him at RG. The key is maintaining that level throughout the season.
• Fancy stats like DR are worse than useless.

*Going forward I'm thinking about including World Group rubbers which presumably don't feature many gimmes vs. 1560279th-ranked journeymen, but I'll have to take a closer look before I make my infallible decision.

Which is a long way of saying it's still too premature to declare Alcaraz the next big thing. But the kid is still only 18 years old. Let's give him some time before we hype him to the skies or dismiss him as another NextGen mug.

Thanks for answering the call.
1) what's UTS? And if you are comparing like with like (say top players getting close to 60 % games won) does it really matter that much that there's a very slight discrepancy between number of service & return games played?
2) I indicated as much and most of Alcaraz' stats are build on HC so far. He might raise his clay dominance to 62 or even 65. Or he might disappoint. We shall see soon enough.
3) I'm well aware this is all based on a 3 months period and that many things can change between now and say, the FO. My main point is that if he can keep his current level or continue to improve, he's a slam contender this year already. That's what the stats show imo, which - imo - hasn't been as clear in the countless other Alcaraz' threads. Didn't know about those Coria stats though, they are outright crazy.
4) Have only dabbled in DR, but I've noticed that some people like it, so I included it. I much prefer GW %

"Let's give him some time before we hype him to the skies or dismiss him as another NextGen mug."
I can't help but hype him due to both my eye-test, the stats and what the tennis community is saying about the kid. It's his teams' job to keep that hype away from him, not mine ;-)

 

[NonP]

Thanks for answering the call.

1) what's UTS? And if you are comparing like with like (say top players getting close to 60 % games won) does it really matter that much that there's a very slight discrepancy between number of service & return games played?

Ultimate Tennis Statistics. You may wanna bookmark this page if you're that interested in GW%:

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Leaders

Tennis statistics leaders by more than 100 figures filtered by various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

My #s are better cuz I double-check/include everything (again save DC and exos), but obviously I don't have time to look at everyone, either. Hence the starting point.

As to your 2nd Q, not really. But chances are the player in question played more service than return games, so it's generally better to start with UTS's sans-TB GW%.

2) I indicated as much and most of Alcaraz' stats are build on HC so far. He might raise his clay dominance to 62 or even 65. Or he might disappoint. We shall see soon enough.

65% ain't happening. Out of all FO champs (OE) only Borg, Lendl and Nadal have cracked 65% even on clay - plus '92 Courier if you just look at regular CC seasons - which should give you an inkling of how rare that benchmark is. And not even Ice-Borg and Bull could reach such exalted heights so young. Even in this field of mugs I don't see a 18-year-old besting those two on their best surface.

And given his UFE counts Carlos doesn't strike me as a (top) dirtballing type. But yes, we'll see soon enough.

3) I'm well aware this is all based on a 3 months period and that many things can change between now and say, the FO. My main point is that if he can keep his current level or continue to improve, he's a slam contender this year already. That's what the stats show imo, which - imo - hasn't been as clear in the countless other Alcaraz' threads. Didn't know about those Coria stats though, they are outright crazy.

That 62.1% is more indicative of Coria's level in '03. Again very good, but not exactly out of the ordinary vs. top FO contenders past and present.

And '03 was also the only CC season where he averaged over 80% in SGW%. As with Ferrer that lack of firepower makes him vulnerable to big hitters having a field day, let alone actual FO champs. Of course we can't completely rule out a dirtballer of either guy's caliber pulling off a Gaudio, but winning the whole shebang would be very tough for El Mago or Ferru regardless of era.

4) Have only dabbled in DR, but I've noticed that some people like it, so I included it. I much prefer GW %

I can't help but hype him due to both my eye-test, the stats and what the tennis community is saying about the kid. It's his teams' job to keep that hype away from him, not mine ;-)

 

[JackieTreeh0rn]

Thoughts?

Some sources aside from the links above:

Tennis Abstract: Carlos Alcaraz Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Rafael Nadal Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Roger Federer Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Novak Djokovic Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Daniil Medvedev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Alexander Zverev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

*** Rafa's games won here doesn't add up to the 59,1 games won, I think the 86,5+30,1 = 58,3 % is more correct, but not sure)

**** Stats wizards: My abilities does not allow me to have a look at say, Zverev's 2nd half of 2021 for comparison. If any of you want to give other great runs a statistical go, I'd be happy to see it.

If you’re going to compare statistics derived using different sample sizes, then at least include a confidence interval or, extra points, a proper significance test adjusted for sample size! Your variance will be highest with lower sample sizes…

 

[Aabye5]

Yes, this is another Alcaraz thread. But based on stats. It's a bit long, but bear with me if you care for stats.

First, tour leaders in terms of win percentage in the past 52 weeks. Note that Alcaraz is 6th (after Rafa, Djoko, Med, Z and Ruud) - same placement for winning deciding sets
Alcaraz is 2nd best after winning the first set in the past 52 weeks (losing but one match), whereas he's 14th best after losing the first (I expect the latter to go up)

Now, let's have a a look at 2022, Alcaraz got the 2nd best win percentage after Rafa (90 and 95 %), ahead of Sinner, Ruud and Rublev.
There are 7 players win a win percentage higher than 75 % (Rafa, Alcaraz, Sinner, Rublev, Ruud, Fritz and Medvedev - the latter 3 all on 76-76,5).

Let's have a look at how many percent of the set, games and points, the top-4 win + their dominance ratio

• Alcaraz: 83,7, 60,7, 54,7 %, respectively. DR: 1,30
• Rafa: 81,0, 59,1 & 54,1 %. DR: 1,27
• Sinner: 76,6, 56,0, 53,0 %. DR: 1,19
• Rublev: 72,7, 56,2, 53,0 %. DR: 1,22

In short, Alcaraz is leading each category.

The 2nd number is the one, I want you to pay attention to. Percentage of games won, 60,7 % for Alcaraz. Djokovic went 60,8 % for 2021 (albeit with a higher DR, 1,38). Djoko's 59,4 % in games won for his career.
And if we look at Rafa since 2005, he's been between 57,3 % (2015) and 63,2 % (2019). He's 59,9 % for his entire career. Alcaraz was 52,9 % in 2021.

If we break the 60,7 % down, Alcaraz has won 86,8 % of his service games and 34,8 % of his return games (Novak 2021: 87,6 and 33,8 %, Rafa 2022: (86,5 and 30,1 %***).
In other words: When we purely look at games won, 2022 Alcaraz is neck and neck with 2021 Novak and significantly better than 2022 Rafa.

As for DR, Carlos is 1,30 so far in 2022. Novak is 1,29 for his career, Rafa and Roger are both 1,30 for theirs.

As @Gary Duane would be the first to tell you, 60,7 % is slam winning material.

Note, the numbers above do not factor level of opposition in (but 9 of Alcaraz' 20 matches have been against top-15 and only 3 against 60+ ranked players).
And Alcaraz' numbers are based on a fairly small sample size (20 matches), which could be him just having a run of form.
But 60,7 % is more than 4 % better than Zverev's best full season (57,3 in 2021, 57,7 so far in 2022) and almost 2 % higher than Medvedev's best season (2021, 58,9 %).

Conclusion: The hype has a basis in statistical reality as far as I can tell.

Thoughts?

Some sources aside from the links above:

Tennis Abstract: Carlos Alcaraz Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Rafael Nadal Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Roger Federer Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Novak Djokovic Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Daniil Medvedev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Alexander Zverev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

*** Rafa's games won here doesn't add up to the 59,1 games won, I think the 86,5+30,1 = 58,3 % is more correct, but not sure)

**** Stats wizards: My abilities does not allow me to have a look at say, Zverev's 2nd half of 2021 for comparison. If any of you want to give other great runs a statistical go, I'd be happy to see it.

Does this include the ATP Tour Finals - which Alcaraz didn't play?

 

[Gary Duane]

Yes, this is another Alcaraz thread. But based on stats. It's a bit long, but bear with me if you care for stats.

First, tour leaders in terms of win percentage in the past 52 weeks. Note that Alcaraz is 6th (after Rafa, Djoko, Med, Z and Ruud) - same placement for winning deciding sets
Alcaraz is 2nd best after winning the first set in the past 52 weeks (losing but one match), whereas he's 14th best after losing the first (I expect the latter to go up)

Now, let's have a a look at 2022, Alcaraz got the 2nd best win percentage after Rafa (90 and 95 %), ahead of Sinner, Ruud and Rublev.
There are 7 players win a win percentage higher than 75 % (Rafa, Alcaraz, Sinner, Rublev, Ruud, Fritz and Medvedev - the latter 3 all on 76-76,5).

Let's have a look at how many percent of the set, games and points, the top-4 win + their dominance ratio

• Alcaraz: 83,7, 60,7, 54,7 %, respectively. DR: 1,30
• Rafa: 81,0, 59,1 & 54,1 %. DR: 1,27
• Sinner: 76,6, 56,0, 53,0 %. DR: 1,19
• Rublev: 72,7, 56,2, 53,0 %. DR: 1,22

In short, Alcaraz is leading each category.

The 2nd number is the one, I want you to pay attention to. Percentage of games won, 60,7 % for Alcaraz. Djokovic went 60,8 % for 2021 (albeit with a higher DR, 1,38). Djoko's 59,4 % in games won for his career.
And if we look at Rafa since 2005, he's been between 57,3 % (2015) and 63,2 % (2019). He's 59,9 % for his entire career. Alcaraz was 52,9 % in 2021.

If we break the 60,7 % down, Alcaraz has won 86,8 % of his service games and 34,8 % of his return games (Novak 2021: 87,6 and 33,8 %, Rafa 2022: (86,5 and 30,1 %***).
In other words: When we purely look at games won, 2022 Alcaraz is neck and neck with 2021 Novak and significantly better than 2022 Rafa.

As for DR, Carlos is 1,30 so far in 2022. Novak is 1,29 for his career, Rafa and Roger are both 1,30 for theirs.

As @Gary Duane would be the first to tell you, 60,7 % is slam winning material.

Note, the numbers above do not factor level of opposition in (but 9 of Alcaraz' 20 matches have been against top-15 and only 3 against 60+ ranked players).
And Alcaraz' numbers are based on a fairly small sample size (20 matches), which could be him just having a run of form.
But 60,7 % is more than 4 % better than Zverev's best full season (57,3 in 2021, 57,7 so far in 2022) and almost 2 % higher than Medvedev's best season (2021, 58,9 %).

Conclusion: The hype has a basis in statistical reality as far as I can tell.

Thoughts?

Some sources aside from the links above:

Tennis Abstract: Carlos Alcaraz Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Rafael Nadal Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Roger Federer Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Novak Djokovic Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Daniil Medvedev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Alexander Zverev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

*** Rafa's games won here doesn't add up to the 59,1 games won, I think the 86,5+30,1 = 58,3 % is more correct, but not sure)

**** Stats wizards: My abilities does not allow me to have a look at say, Zverev's 2nd half of 2021 for comparison. If any of you want to give other great runs a statistical go, I'd be happy to see it.

I'm looking at the same data, but we need a year, and we have a LONG way to go. But I am hopefully optimistic.

 

[Chanwan]

If you’re going to compare statistics derived using different sample sizes, then at least include a confidence interval or, extra points, a proper significance test adjusted for sample size! Your variance will be highest with lower sample sizes…

I dabble in stats, but have no formal training. I know those concepts, but wouldn't know how to use them. In other words: I've just taken some data here and presented it with all the caveats that entails.
I've separated into years and 2022 though, so the sample sizes should be somewhat comparable and I've stressed that Alcaraz' is only a 3 months period, when comparing it with the past full seasons

 

[Chanwan]

Does this include the ATP Tour Finals - which Alcaraz didn't play?

The 2022 stats don't. The 2021 stats for Djoko do (that's his full season). Same for Rafa & Roger in the years, where they played that.

The 2022 stats:
Let's have a look at how many percent of the set, games and points, the top-4 win + their dominance ratio

• Alcaraz: 83,7, 60,7, 54,7 %, respectively. DR: 1,30
• Rafa: 81,0, 59,1 & 54,1 %. DR: 1,27
• Sinner: 76,6, 56,0, 53,0 %. DR: 1,19
• Rublev: 72,7, 56,2, 53,0 %. DR: 1,22

 

[Chanwan]

Ultimate Tennis Statistics. You may wanna bookmark this page if you're that interested in GW%:

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Leaders

Tennis statistics leaders by more than 100 figures filtered by various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

My #s are better cuz I double-check/include everything (again save DC and exos), but obviously I don't have time to look at everyone, either. Hence the starting point.

As to your 2nd Q, not really. But chances are the player in question played more service than return games, so it's generally better to start with UTS's sans-TB GW%.



65% ain't happening. Out of all FO champs (OE) only Borg, Lendl and Nadal have cracked 65% even on clay - plus '92 Courier if you just look at regular CC seasons - which should give you an inkling of how rare that benchmark is. And not even Ice-Borg and Bull could reach such exalted heights so young. Even in this field of mugs I don't see a 18-year-old besting those two on their best surface.

And given his UFE counts Carlos doesn't strike me as a (top) dirtballing type. But yes, we'll see soon enough.



That 62.1% is more indicative of Coria's level in '03. Again very good, but not exactly out of the ordinary vs. top FO contenders past and present.

And '03 was also the only CC season where he averaged over 80% in SGW%. As with Ferrer that lack of firepower makes him vulnerable to big hitters having a field day, let alone actual FO champs. Of course we can't completely rule out a dirtballer of either guy's caliber pulling off a Gaudio, but winning the whole shebang would be very tough for El Mago or Ferru regardless of era.

UTS, doh..., I should have known that.

"As to your 2nd Q, not really. But chances are the player in question played more service than return games, so it's generally better to start with UTS's sans-TB GW%."
Noted. I wasn't trying to do a scientific analysis here, just having a closer look at the numbers to see whether they confirmed the hype or not. And so far, they do.

65 %. Yeah, that's most likely too much. I just threw it out there.
As for top dirtballing type, I've personally seen him a lot more on HC than on clay. And while I didn't see his final vs. Schwartzmann recently, Alcaraz had a 21-8 W/UE ratio vs. 10/11 for Schwartzmann. The kid grew up on clay, so I would expect he knows how to balance his all out attack with safety. And his ability to strike winners on a slow court vs. a defender as great as Schwartzmann speaks volumes for me (or vs. Rafa in IW, 36 from his groundies alone).

HC might end up being his best surface, but for now I think it's still clay. What's important for me is that he doesn't need to hit the lines to hit winners, i.e. he can hit with more margin.

 

[aldeayeah]

HC might end up being his best surface, but for now I think it's still clay. What's important for me is that he doesn't need to hit the lines to hit winners, i.e. he can hit with more margin.

he has one of the best possible coaches to do well on clay, as long as he listens to him i'm sure he'll deliver

i think it's a very good thing for an obviously attack-minded guy like him to be tempered by a coach who excels in solid, metronomic baselining

 

[ghostofMecir]

Yes, this is another Alcaraz thread. But based on stats. It's a bit long, but bear with me if you care for stats.

First, tour leaders in terms of win percentage in the past 52 weeks. Note that Alcaraz is 6th (after Rafa, Djoko, Med, Z and Ruud) - same placement for winning deciding sets
Alcaraz is 2nd best after winning the first set in the past 52 weeks (losing but one match), whereas he's 14th best after losing the first (I expect the latter to go up)

Now, let's have a a look at 2022, Alcaraz got the 2nd best win percentage after Rafa (90 and 95 %), ahead of Sinner, Ruud and Rublev.
There are 7 players win a win percentage higher than 75 % (Rafa, Alcaraz, Sinner, Rublev, Ruud, Fritz and Medvedev - the latter 3 all on 76-76,5).

Let's have a look at how many percent of the set, games and points, the top-4 win + their dominance ratio

• Alcaraz: 83,7, 60,7, 54,7 %, respectively. DR: 1,30
• Rafa: 81,0, 59,1 & 54,1 %. DR: 1,27
• Sinner: 76,6, 56,0, 53,0 %. DR: 1,19
• Rublev: 72,7, 56,2, 53,0 %. DR: 1,22

In short, Alcaraz is leading each category.

The 2nd number is the one, I want you to pay attention to. Percentage of games won, 60,7 % for Alcaraz. Djokovic went 60,8 % for 2021 (albeit with a higher DR, 1,38). Djoko's 59,4 % in games won for his career.
And if we look at Rafa since 2005, he's been between 57,3 % (2015) and 63,2 % (2019). He's 59,9 % for his entire career. Alcaraz was 52,9 % in 2021.

If we break the 60,7 % down, Alcaraz has won 86,8 % of his service games and 34,8 % of his return games (Novak 2021: 87,6 and 33,8 %, Rafa 2022: (86,5 and 30,1 %***).
In other words: When we purely look at games won, 2022 Alcaraz is neck and neck with 2021 Novak and significantly better than 2022 Rafa.

As for DR, Carlos is 1,30 so far in 2022. Novak is 1,29 for his career, Rafa and Roger are both 1,30 for theirs.

As @Gary Duane would be the first to tell you, 60,7 % is slam winning material.

Note, the numbers above do not factor level of opposition in (but 9 of Alcaraz' 20 matches have been against top-15 and only 3 against 60+ ranked players).
And Alcaraz' numbers are based on a fairly small sample size (20 matches), which could be him just having a run of form.
But 60,7 % is more than 4 % better than Zverev's best full season (57,3 in 2021, 57,7 so far in 2022) and almost 2 % higher than Medvedev's best season (2021, 58,9 %).

Conclusion: The hype has a basis in statistical reality as far as I can tell.

Thoughts?

Some sources aside from the links above:

Tennis Abstract: Carlos Alcaraz Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Rafael Nadal Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Roger Federer Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Novak Djokovic Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Daniil Medvedev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

www.tennisabstract.com

Tennis Abstract: Alexander Zverev Match Results, Splits, and Analysis

*** Rafa's games won here doesn't add up to the 59,1 games won, I think the 86,5+30,1 = 58,3 % is more correct, but not sure)

**** Stats wizards: My abilities does not allow me to have a look at say, Zverev's 2nd half of 2021 for comparison. If any of you want to give other great runs a statistical go, I'd be happy to see it.

Good stuff, @Chanwan . His DR, games won % and points won% at 18 years old going on 19 are beyond incredible and point to Big 3 like dominance. Now, he might not ever get there, but these types of numbers are only ever reached by dominant players.

People are saying “Wait until,he has a deep slam run,“ and while of course that’s true that we have to see, the point is that any player who has posted the DR, points won%, and games won% that Carlos has DOES wind up to go on winning multiple slams and either does become #1 or challenges it.

His dominance ratio, games won %, and points won % is the result of a preternaturally complete game that has few holes. He’s played 25 straight matches in which he has posted a dominance ratio of .97+, i.e., hasn’t been soundly outplayed in 25 matches extending throughout clay, indoor hare, and outdoor hard. It is almost impossible to go that long without being soundly outplayed on tour let alone for an 18 year old to do it. I don’t have the time to write up a complete post, but going through the logs post 1991 (i.e., the year we have points won data from the ATP), only dominant players in their primes have been able to do this.

 

[Chanwan]

Good stuff, @Chanwan . His DR, games won % and points won% at 18 years old going on 19 are beyond incredible and point to Big 3 like dominance. Now, he might not ever get there, but these types of numbers are only ever reached by dominant players.

People are saying “Wait until,he has a deep slam run,“ and while of course that’s true that we have to see, the point is that any player who has posted the DR, points won%, and games won% that Carlos has DOES wind up to go on winning multiple slams and either does become #1 or challenges it.

His dominance ratio, games won %, and points won % is the result of a preternaturally complete game that has few holes. He’s played 25 straight matches in which he has posted a dominance ratio of .97+, i.e., hasn’t been soundly outplayed in 25 matches extending throughout clay, indoor hare, and outdoor hard. It is almost impossible to go that long without being soundly outplayed on tour let alone for an 18 year old to do it. I don’t have the time to write up a complete post, but going through the logs post 1991 (i.e., the year we have points won data from the ATP), only dominant players in their primes have been able to do this.

Well said, I agree with everything

 

[Chanwan]

@NonP - I just watched the Rio final and Alcaraz played a very measured match. Pulled the trigger on the right balls, rallied when he had to, drop shots, even threw in a few moonballs etc. He can play on clay alright
@aldeayeah

 

[Chanwan]

People - what will Alcaraz' games won percentage be by the end of the clay season?

I predict he'll stay above 60, approaching 62 %
You can predict for the entirety of 2022 or just for the clay swing. Either way, I say 60-62 %.

 

[ghostofMecir]

People - what will Alcaraz' games won percentage be by the end of the clay season?

I predict he'll stay above 60, approaching 62 %
You can predict for the entirety of 2022 or just for the clay swing. Either way, I say 60-62 %.

62% Games won% is wild territory.

Big 3 have about 15 seasons between them at 61%+ games won %.

Do you see Carlos having the 80%+ sets won, 60%+ games won, 55% points won season?