Your realistic expectation from Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open 2020

[Backspin1183]

Umm wrong. 2018 and 2019 Rogers Cup Champion(Canada)

Nadal has also never won a Real Slam.

 

[Apun94]

Nadal leads the H2H over Federer 3-1 at the Australian Open and the only match that Federer won went to 5 sets, so Rafa can defeat Federer at the AO again.

This is more circumstantial than anything else. 5 years ago, Nadal wouldve been the favourite against Federer on HCs. Not anymore. If fed reaches the semis or the finals dependong on the draw, you can bet he will be playing extremely well, and he really should beat Nadal given their recent H2H

 

[Apun94]

I actually think Rafa will win the AO and in a bigger shock, Djokovic will win RG.

Bizarre I know, but I just have a feeling

In terms of just logic - I think Rafa’s motivation is at an all time high. He can sniff blood in the water from Fed. He wants this AO. You know what type of game he’ll bring. A loss before the SF would be a shock. Meanwhile Djoker has looked vulnerable.

Regarding RG’20 I just think Rafa is due for a surprising setback/upset at RG. There’s really only 2-3 people capable of such an upset but I predict Djoker surprises everyone with his second RG

I mean Nadal's motivation is extremely high every year to win the AO if he's healthy. Infact, he's getting older now so his chances of winning the AO decrease every year. Dont see Nadal winning the title unless Djokovic loses before they meet

 

[Mike Sams]

This is more circumstantial than anything else. 5 years ago, Nadal wouldve been the favourite against Federer on HCs. Not anymore. If fed reaches the semis or the finals dependong on the draw, you can bet he will be playing extremely well, and he really should beat Nadal given their recent H2H

It's hard to say really because Federer's not done particularly well in HC Slams this year (AO and USO). And he's only getting older so who knows if he really can conjur up the energy to get through 2 weeks. Especially if he's got a tough draw. Nadal is 5 years younger so he's still got time before age really hits him.

 

[Mike Sams]

I mean Nadal's motivation is extremely high every year to win the AO if he's healthy. Infact, he's getting older now so his chances of winning the AO decrease every year. Dont see Nadal winning the title unless Djokovic loses before they meet

If Nadal has to play several tough players in succession who are in good form including Dimitrov, Wawrinka, Thiem and/or Medvedev, it could be extremely difficult for him just to reach the finals.

 

[BGod]

Hasn't repeated good runs so I smell quarter finish.

 

[Apun94]

If Nadal has to play several tough players in succession who are in good form including Dimitrov, Wawrinka, Thiem and/or Medvedev, it could be extremely difficult for him just to reach the finals.

Lol since when has Nadal ever got that difficult a draw

 

[Spider]

It depends. You can never really count him out, ever. But he is third favourite to win this event. Behind Djokovic & Fed. So a lot would depend on them as well.

 

[Mike Sams]

Lol since when has Nadal ever got that difficult a draw

A few times actually.
AO2011, he would've had to get through 3 back to back top 10 players including #7 Ferrer, #5 Murrray, and #3 Djokovic to win it. He failed in the QF against #7 Ferrer.
AO2015, he would've had to again go through 3 back to back top 10 players including Berdych, Murray and Djokovic. He failed in the QF against #7 Berdych.
AO2016, he was unlucky to play an inspired Verdasco in the 1st round. Verdasco was hitting the ball with real vigor in that 5th set. Blasting winners left and right.
AO2017, he went 5 sets with Zverev, a tough 4 setter with Monfils, then played #3 Raonic, followed by #15 Dimitrov in another brutal 5 setter followed by Federer in the final.
He ran into a Cilic who was ranked #6 and in very strong form in the QF in AO2018.
AO2019 he got a good draw against mostly up and coming NextGeners who weren't quite ready to deliver on the big stage. But that could change in 2020 as several NextGen guys have improved considerably since then.

 

[vex]

I mean Nadal's motivation is extremely high every year to win the AO if he's healthy. Infact, he's getting older now so his chances of winning the AO decrease every year. Dont see Nadal winning the title unless Djokovic loses before they meet

My confidence in Djoker just isn’t high. Some days he looks amazing. Other days he looks like shiit. I don’t know if this is just his new normal where he’ll vacillate back and forth. The days of him being an unstoppable terminator match after match just seem to have passed

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

My confidence in Djoker just isn’t high. Some days he looks amazing. Other days he looks like shiit. I don’t know if this is just his new normal where he’ll vacillate back and forth. The days of him being an unstoppable terminator match after match just seem to have passed

Because he's not in his 20s anymore

 

[mike danny]

A few times actually.
AO2011, he would've had to get through 3 back to back top 10 players including #7 Ferrer, #5 Murrray, and #3 Djokovic to win it. He failed in the QF against #7 Ferrer.
AO2015, he would've had to again go through 3 back to back top 10 players including Berdych, Murray and Djokovic. He failed in the QF against #7 Berdych.
AO2016, he was unlucky to play an inspired Verdasco in the 1st round. Verdasco was hitting the ball with real vigor in that 5th set. Blasting winners left and right.
AO2017, he went 5 sets with Zverev, a tough 4 setter with Monfils, then played #3 Raonic, followed by #15 Dimitrov in another brutal 5 setter followed by Federer in the final.
He ran into a Cilic who was ranked #6 and in very strong form in the QF in AO2018.
AO2019 he got a good draw against mostly up and coming NextGeners who weren't quite ready to deliver on the big stage. But that could change in 2020 as several NextGen guys have improved considerably since then.

The Next Gen may continue to bend over until the big 3 retire. I have to see them beat Nadal and/or Djokovic in a slam to convince me that they have arrived, even if Djokodal themselves aren't spring chickens anymore. But such is their ineptitude.

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

7 people have voted for 1R exit

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

The examples in the video are those types of balls where Nadal is very capable of putting his body in the right position but doesn't, due to nerves (?) or confidence. You cannot blame decline here because these are the same/similar balls he hit offensively throughout the tournament with a high percentage of accuracy. They're not balls where he has a low percentage of being able to hit offensively, let alone ones where you simply have to hit defensively.

Evidently Nadal doesn't believe his base patterns are enough now in this match-up, so he is the one who has to be proactive and take risks but he doesn't like that unless he's feeling on top of the world. I mean, he was fine playing aggressive throughout the tournament, as you note, but he didn't *have* to do it since he was so much better than his opponents that a more conservative game would've been enough, which gave him confidence to go for it and make matches shorter; Kyrgios was one exception, and Nadal wasn't particularly aggressive against Kyrgios. But he must be more aggressive in order to beat Federer on lower-bouncing courts (well, until Fed's level falls off for good, who knows when that'll happen), and Nadal sure doesn't enjoy being *forced* out of his comfort zone (yeah who does, duh). So the roles are reversed, and it's Nadal rather than Federer being made to look like a mental midget. High time indeed, way too many sheeple jacking their minds off to the thought of Nadal being intrinsically the better player need to have sense slapped into them harshly.

 

[ADuck]

Evidently Nadal doesn't believe his base patterns are enough now in this match-up, so he is the one who has to be proactive and take risks but he doesn't like that unless he's feeling on top of the world. I mean, he was fine playing aggressive throughout the tournament, as you note, but he didn't *have* to do it since he was so much better than his opponents that a more conservative game would've been enough, which gave him confidence to go for it and make matches shorter; Kyrgios was one exception, and Nadal wasn't particularly aggressive against Kyrgios. But he must be more aggressive in order to beat Federer on lower-bouncing courts (well, until Fed's level falls off for good, who knows when that'll happen), and Nadal sure doesn't enjoy being *forced* out of his comfort zone (yeah who does, duh). So the roles are reversed, and it's Nadal rather than Federer being made to look like a mental midget. High time indeed, way too many sheeple jacking their minds off to the thought of Nadal being intrinsically the better player need to have sense slapped into them harshly.

Bolded - So you agree with my original point then. That's all I was trying to argue here.

Uncomfortable or not though, he's already proven it's within his capabilities to play better than he has been against Federer.

And yes, I know you are enjoying the role-reversal.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Bolded - So you agree with my original point then. That's all I was trying to argue here.

Uncomfortable or not though, he's already proven it's within his capabilities to play better than he has been against Federer.

And yes, I know you are enjoying the role-reversal.

Speedal did, Oldal did not. He needed that speed to fully use his abilities and force Federer to keep going out of his comfort zone and producing chokes. The reversal has been beautiful indeed, why wouldn't it in the face of all those sods who kept, and many do even now, touting the horn of utter superidullity. I note the recent events caused the adulation for Federer to calm down as well somewhat, a welcome development in historical perspective - people should move on at some point.

 

[ADuck]

Speedal did, Oldal did not. He needed that speed to fully use his abilities and force Federer to keep going out of his comfort zone and producing chokes.

So you think Nadal is incapable of playing better against Federer?
Well, that's where we differ in opinion. I've already been through it all already though in this thread with examples and everything. Nadal can play aggressive against Federer, it's not like Federer's weight of shot is just too much to handle from the baseline. It's mostly a matter of confidence and perhaps time to unlearn old habits and begin forming new ones for Nadal.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

So you think Nadal is incapable of playing better against Federer?
Well, that's where we differ in opinion. I've already been through it all already though in this thread with examples and everything. Nadal can play aggressive against Federer, it's not like Federer's weight of shot is just too much to handle from the baseline. It's mostly a matter of confidence and perhaps time to unlearn old habits and begin forming new ones for Nadal.

Well, theoretically all of them are capable of everything, it may even be said Federer was theoretically capable of playing better and possingly winning in 2006/11 RG finals, only he never did. And who knows on the matter, might end up being one of waiting for Federer to play poorly so he could be beaten without doing anything special on that level.

 

[Mike Sams]

The Next Gen may continue to bend over until the big 3 retire. I have to see them beat Nadal and/or Djokovic in a slam to convince me that they have arrived, even if Djokodal themselves aren't spring chickens anymore. But such is their ineptitude.

Thiem indirectly eliminated Nadal at USO2018. Nadal was finished after that 5 set war. Thiem is even stronger on hardcourts now since then.

 

[mike danny]

Thiem indirectly eliminated Nadal at USO2018. Nadal was finished after that 5 set war. Thiem is even stronger on hardcourts now since then.

Oh, I know that. The problem are the other younger guys: Zverev, Tsitsipas, Medvedev etc. I trust Thiem more than I trust them.

 

[kevaninho]

This is more circumstantial than anything else. 5 years ago, Nadal wouldve been the favourite against Federer on HCs. Not anymore. If fed reaches the semis or the finals dependong on the draw, you can bet he will be playing extremely well, and he really should beat Nadal given their recent H2H

Um.. didn't Nadal take a set off of Fed playing hopeless at Wimbledon this year? And with the 1st set being a tie-break loss, it was closer than a simple win for Fed.
Id be much more confident of his chances V Fed on a HC. Its not a given that Fed will always beat Nadal off of clay.

 

[Mike Sams]

Um.. didn't Nadal take a set off of Fed playing hopeless at Wimbledon this year? And with the 1st set being a tie-break loss, it was closer than a simple win for Fed.
Id be much more confident of his chances V Fed on a HC. Its not a given that Fed will always beat Nadal off of clay.

Nadal played hopelessly?

 

[kevaninho]

Nadal played hopelessly?

His form wasn't great. He was down a lot from 2018 on grass IMO. You disagree?

 

[Mike Sams]

His form wasn't great. He was down a lot from 2018 on grass IMO. You disagree?

He won Rome and French Open in succession before coming into Wimbledon. He had a lot of confidence and momentum going and destroyed some tough grass court players and big hitters including Kyrgios and Querrey coming into the Federer match.

 

[Apun94]

My confidence in Djoker just isn’t high. Some days he looks amazing. Other days he looks like shiit. I don’t know if this is just his new normal where he’ll vacillate back and forth. The days of him being an unstoppable terminator match after match just seem to have passed

But I am sure he will really bring it his best for Fedal at slams. Becomes a different animal then

 

[Djokovic2011]

Not gonna lie guys, I'm still in a state of shock that Ghost and 125 are getting married.

 

[StrongRule]

Not gonna lie guys, I'm still in a state of shock that Ghost and 125 are getting married.

Did @Federer and Del Potro invite you? Need to check that thread again.

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

Not gonna lie guys, I'm still in a state of shock that Ghost and 125 are getting married.

When finding your partner in crime it’s time to get married



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ACE of Hearts]

We shall see but i am sure he has his sights on passing roger federer in slams count. Man that wimbledon final might have wrecked roger.

 

[Djokovic2011]

When finding your partner in crime it’s time to get married



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You little vixen haha 125 is such a cutie pie.

 

[King No1e]

Either runner-up to Djokovic or loses to a young gun in the SF.