I'm happy for Murray, but I'm also sad we didn't get to see a Federer-Murray final

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

It could have been an epic final - the hometown hero versus the worldwide fan favorite icon. Centre Court would have been rockin' n rollin'. It could have been tremendous. Murray is the odds makers' favorite but he also has a history of choking in Slam finals against Federer. Federer would have had extra motivation knowing that this was likely his last best chance of winning Wimbledon again (by far the tournament he holds in the highest esteem) or any Slam at all. He may never get another chance at number 18.

Somehow I feel robbed that this epic final never materialized. Damn you, Federer! You had that semifinal! If you had only converted one of those numerous break points in the 4th set or not double-faulted twice in a row to hand Raonic the 4th set after being up 40-0. Your fans could have been treated to something very special and the memory of a lifetime. No worries, though.

With that said, your fans still support you 100% and have confidence in you to earn another chance, perhaps even next year. Good luck in Rio and in New York.

Mr.Lob · Jul 10, 2016

It would have been good to see, but only if a close match. Don't think 2016 Fed could have kept it close.

jm1980 · Jul 10, 2016

If Fed makes the final, it's 6-3 6-4 6-4 Murray

Federer and Del Potro · Jul 10, 2016

I'm sad it didn't happen but also don't think I could have handled seeing Federer lose a 3rd straight Wimbledon final. 2014 and 2015 were really gut-wrenching. Especially 2014, he had the finish line right next to him in 2014.

I'm not sure 2016 form Fed does much vs Muzz. Maybe a set based on his guile/fight/resolve. But 3 sets after 2 5 setters? I don't see it.

sunny_cali · Jul 10, 2016

I am actually relieved he didn't make it to the Final. Based on the differences in levels between the two ATM, and the fact that Fed was gassed after 9 sets, this would have been a replay of the Olympics -- a straight set beatdown.

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

jm1980 said:
If Fed makes the final, it's 6-3 6-4 6-4 Murray

I doubt it. You're forgetting about the straights sets beatdown Federer gave Murray just last year in the Wimbledon semifinals.

And Federer is 9-1 in sets versus Murray in Slam finals.

octobrina10 · Jul 10, 2016

Thank God (or M.Raonic), Fed was out of the picture!

Chadillac · Jul 10, 2016

jm1980 said:
If Fed makes the final, it's 6-3 6-4 6-4 Murray

Murray hasnt beaten fed in over 3 yrs. Its a bad match up for him. Im surprised milos has won a title, he plays so bad in finals.

MichaelNadal · Jul 10, 2016

Murray would have worked Federer out.

MonkeyBoy · Jul 10, 2016

BreakPoint said:
I doubt it. You're forgetting about the straights sets beatdown Federer gave Murray just last year in the Wimbledon semifinals.

That was a very special performance from Federer. The best performance of an excellent season. His seasonal form is WAY lower this year, and with his physical condition this tournament I think Murray would have gone through him in straights. (murray's also playing alot better than he was this time last year)..

MonkeyBoy · Jul 10, 2016

BreakPoint said:
I doubt it. You're forgetting about the straights sets beatdown Federer gave Murray just last year in the Wimbledon semifinals.

That was a very special performance from Federer. The best performance of an excellent season. His seasonal form is WAY lower this year, and with his physical condition this tournament I think Murray would have gone through him in straights. (murray's also playing alot better than he was this time last year)..

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

MonkeyBoy said:
That was a very special performance from Federer. The best performance of an excellent season. His seasonal form is WAY lower this year, and with his physical condition this tournament I think Murray would have gone through him in straights. (murray's also playing alot better than he was this time last year)..

Federer has beaten Murray the last 5 times in a row and has never beaten Federer in 3 previous Slam finals. The odds are Federer beats Murray if they met in the Wimbledon final.

MichaelNadal · Jul 10, 2016

BreakPoint said:
Federer has beaten Murray the last 5 times in a row and has never beaten Federer in 3 previous Slam finals. The odds are Federer beats Murray if they met in the Wimbledon final.

you're so cute.

jm1980 · Jul 10, 2016

Fed is the ultimate winner of all hypothetical matchups

Sentinel · Jul 10, 2016

jm1980 said:
If Fed makes the final, it's 6-3 6-4 6-4 Murray

MichaelNadal said:
Murray would have worked Federer out.

I think it would have been better than yesterday's scoreline and onesided match. Although, I do think Murray would have still won.

But at least I got the watch the final without any stress ! LOL.

Chadillac · Jul 10, 2016

jm1980 said:
Fed is the ultimate winner of all hypothetical matchups

Him and Laver are still debatable. In a hypothetical who would you choose? Barring specialized surfaces

Tenez101 · Jul 10, 2016

Yep, I agree. Too bad Fed's a choker.

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

jm1980 said:
Fed is the ultimate winner of all hypothetical matchups

Murray doesn't get nervous playing Raonic on the big stage. He gets nervous playing the GOAT Federer, especially in Slams.

jm1980 · Jul 10, 2016

Chadillac said:
Murray hasnt beaten fed in over 3 yrs. Its a bad match up for him. Im surprised milos has won a title, he plays so bad in finals.

Is he really? I'll kindly remind you that Murray was ahead in the H2H before he got injured and collected a bunch of losses. One of those wins was even from a prepubescent Murray against Peakest-of-peaks Federer. He hasn't played Fed in almost a year, but I would bet my house on Murray winning their next match if it happens soon

BreakPoint said:
Murray doesn't get nervous playing Raonic on the big stage. He gets nervous playing the GOAT Federer, especially in Slams.

No reason for him to be nervous this time around. He already has a Wimbledon title and he would be playing an out of form Federer who'd barely scrapped his way to the final. I think he'd be pretty confident. Once Fed loses the first set he's toast

abmk · Jul 10, 2016

jm1980 said:
Is he really? I'll kindly remind you that Murray was ahead in the H2H before he got injured and collected a bunch of losses. One of those wins was even from a prepubescent Murray against peakest of peaks Federer. He hasn't played Fed in almost a year, but I would bet my house on Murray winning their next match if it happens soon

yeah, that was win was against a tired federer who tanked....murray wasn't able to handle the edberg coached federer ..that style ..both wim 15 and cincy 15 were more than a year and half after his injury , murray couldn't even break him once/take a set in those 2 encounters combined ...

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

jm1980 said:
Once Fed loses the first set he's toast

Maybe you should tell Cilic that.

And even Raonic, as Federer should have won in 4 sets after losing the 1st set.

cc0509 · Jul 10, 2016

BreakPoint said:
Federer has beaten Murray the last 5 times in a row and has never beaten Federer in 3 previous Slam finals. The odds are Federer beats Murray if they met in the Wimbledon final.

No way. Not this year. Federer isn't in good enough form to beat Murray at the moment. Can we stop the delusion from some Fed Fans?

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

I just think it would have been awesome to see Federer going for his 18th Slam against someone he's owned in Slams instead of someone who's owned him in Slams (namely Djokovic and Nadal).

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

cc0509 said:
No way. Not this year. Federer isn't in good enough form to beat Murray at the moment. Can we stop the delusion from some Fed Fans?

Federer beat Murray in the 2008 US Open final despite having mono and he beat Murray in the 2012 Wimbledon final despite having a back injury, so it doesn't matter what form he's in.

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

cc0509 said:
No way. Not this year. Federer isn't in good enough form to beat Murray at the moment. Can we stop the delusion from some Fed Fans?

Federer beat Murray in the 2008 US Open final despite having mono and he beat Murray in the 2012 Wimbledon final despite having a back injury, so it doesn't matter what form he's in.

Mainad · Jul 10, 2016

Chadillac said:
Im surprised milos has won a title, he plays so bad in finals.

Not against Federer he doesn't.

cc0509 · Jul 10, 2016

BreakPoint said:
Federer beat Murray in the 2008 US Open final despite having mono and he beat Murray in the 2012 Wimbledon final despite having a back injury, so it doesn't matter what form he's in.

That was a long time ago. I'm sorry but there isn't any way I can see how this Federer(coming back from surgery and who is now 35) would have beat this Murray at Wimbledon. He's just not in good enough form. Whether he can get back to any kind of decent form again where he will trouble Djokovic and Murray we'll have to see. It's tougher as players get older.

Mainad · Jul 10, 2016

BreakPoint said:
Federer beat Murray in the 2008 US Open final despite having mono and he beat Murray in the 2012 Wimbledon final despite having a back injury, so it doesn't matter what form he's in.

Well, Murray crushed the guy who had just beaten him so I think it probably does.

cc0509 · Jul 10, 2016

Mainad said:
Well, Murray crushed the guy who had just beaten him so I think it probably does.

Right. Milos is a guy prime Federer would have thrashed. Even the Federer at Wimbledon 2014 and 2015 would have defeated Milos. Fed is in no shape to beat current form Murray. Whether that will change back again depends on whether or not Federer can get back to his form of 2015 or not. It's tougher when a player gets older. Look how long it took Murray to get back into great form after his back surgery and he was a lot younger than Federer is now.

Noelan · Jul 10, 2016

Some say it would be better for Federer to play Djokovic in SF , suddenly now he is nervous in SF against Raonic. When he loses in AO SF that's because of mono, was trashed in RG F, again mono is the reason, when he wins USO F he is so great that he won despite mono. LOL you federer fans, what a bunch

Then you go angry when people call your fan base the worst in sport of tennis

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

Mainad said:
Well, Murray crushed the guy who had just beaten him so I think it probably does.

First of all, tennis is about match-ups. And Murray is way more nervous playing Federer, especially in Slams, than he is playing Raonic. Heck, Murray just beat Raonic in the Queens final two weeks ago, whereas he's lost to Federer the last 5 times in a row they've played, and he's never beaten Federer at Wimbledon.

Besides, the stats show that Raonic was either nervous or injured in the final because both his 1st and 2nd serves were way slower than in the SF versus Federer. Federer would have easily beaten this Raonic in the final since he nearly beat him in the SF when Raonic was serving much bigger.

BreakPoint · Jul 10, 2016

Noelan said:
Some say it would be better for Federer to play Djokovic in SF , suddenly now he is nervous in SF against Raonic. When he loses in AO SF that's because of mono, was trashed in RG F, again mono is the reason, when he wins USO F he is so great that he won despite mono. LOL you federer fans, what a bunch Then you go angry when people call your fan base the worst in sport of tennis

Um...who claimed that Federer was nervous against Raonic in the SF? Please show us because I don't remember anyone making such a ridiculous claim.

Did Federer play Murray in the AO SF and RG F, like he did in the USO F? Do you think there's a difference between Djokovic, Nadal , and Murray? Who does Federer own in Slams and who owns Federer in Slams?

Mainad · Jul 10, 2016

BreakPoint said:
First of all, tennis is about match-ups. And Murray is way more nervous playing Federer, especially in Slams, than he is playing Raonic. Heck, Murray just beat Raonic in the Queens final two weeks ago, whereas he's lost to Federer the last 5 times in a row they've played, and he's never beaten Federer at Wimbledon.

But he HAS beaten Federer at Wimbledon (as I keep trying to remind people). It doesn't matter that it was in the final of a different tournament, it still took place on Centre Court at Wimbledon in a best of 5 match that both players desperately wanted to win. For both Murray and Federer, the precedent is there.

BreakPoint said:
Besides, the stats show that Raonic was either nervous or injured in the final because both his 1st and 2nd serves were way slower than in the SF versus Federer. Federer would have easily beaten this Raonic in the final since he nearly beat him in the SF when Raonic was serving much bigger.

Raonic may well have been nervous (it was his first Slam final so who wouldn't have been) but he was definitely not injured and he threw some of his fastest ever serves at Murray (one of them was at 147 mph on a second serve) but Murray was just returning them and putting constant pressure on his serve which forced him to go for more and therefore make more errors. He was moving around the court as well as he has ever done but he was up against a player who was in the zone and he knew it. That said, Federer should have beaten him in the semi when he had the chance but I sense that his knee injury re-surfaced in that crucial 4th set which wouldn't have boded well for the final even if he had managed to get there.

MichaelNadal · Jul 10, 2016

Mainad said:
But he HAS beaten Federer at Wimbledon (as I keep trying to remind people). It doesn't matter that it was in the final of a different tournament, it still took place on Centre Court at Wimbledon in a best of 5 match that both players desperately wanted to win. For both Murray and Federer, the precedent is there.

Raonic may well have been nervous (it was his first Slam final so who wouldn't have been) but he was definitely not injured and he threw some of his fastest ever serves at Murray (one of them was at 147 mph on a second serve) but Murray was just returning them and putting constant pressure on his serve which forced him to go for more and therefore make more errors. He was moving around the court as well as he has ever done but he was up against a player who was in the zone and he knew it. That said, Federer should have beaten him in the semi when he had the chance but I sense that his knee injury re-surfaced in that crucial 4th set which wouldn't have boded well for the final even if he had managed to get there.

Congrats man, you must be over the moon! Murray served and returned like an absolute boss. Well deserved.

Minion · Jul 11, 2016

I'm glad it went down the way it did. Very happy for Murray

And Raonic has worked his canadian bacon off to get where he is, and he proved that he is more than just a serve bot, so props to him.

Minion · Jul 11, 2016

And...how the hell do you even see a 147mph serve, much less return it and win the point - that is just insane, seriously

SQA333 · Jul 11, 2016

The way Murray's been returning and defending, Fed would've run out of gas after maybe a close first set.

BreakPoint · Jul 11, 2016

Mainad said:
But he HAS beaten Federer at Wimbledon (as I keep trying to remind people). It doesn't matter that it was in the final of a different tournament, it still took place on Centre Court at Wimbledon in a best of 5 match that both players desperately wanted to win. For both Murray and Federer, the precedent is there.

It does matter because it's not Wimbledon. If you play a different tournament at Flushing Meadows, that doesn't make it the US Open. Likewise, playing a Davis Cup tie at Roland Garros doesn't make it the French Open. Everything is different.

Mainad said:
Raonic may well have been nervous (it was his first Slam final so who wouldn't have been) but he was definitely not injured and he threw some of his fastest ever serves at Murray (one of them was at 147 mph on a second serve) but Murray was just returning them and putting constant pressure on his serve which forced him to go for more and therefore make more errors. He was moving around the court as well as he has ever done but he was up against a player who was in the zone and he knew it. That said, Federer should have beaten him in the semi when he had the chance but I sense that his knee injury re-surfaced in that crucial 4th set which wouldn't have boded well for the final even if he had managed to get there.

If Raonic was forced to go for more on his serves in the final then why were his average 1st and 2nd serves both slower than in the SF? If Murray is a better returner than Federer, then Raonic should have been hitting bigger serves against Murray than against Federer, but the opposite was true.

MichaelNadal · Jul 11, 2016

Minion said:
And...how the hell do you even see a 147mph serve, much less return it and win the point - that is just insane, seriously

Serve speeds are getting scary.
Wimbledon:

1 M. Raonic CAN 7 147 mph
2 S. Groth AUS 1 142 mph
2 J. Isner USA 3 142 mph
4 D. Thiem AUT 2 140 mph
5 N. Kyrgios AUS 4 139 mph
6 J-W. Tsonga FRA 5 138 mph
7 J. Sock USA 3 137 mph
8 M. Cilic CRO 5 136 mph
8 G. Monfils FRA 1 136 mph
10 T. Berdych CZE 6 135 mph
10 A. Zverev GER 3 135 mph
10 J. Del Potro ARG 3 135 mph
10 S. Wawrinka SUI 2 135 mph

Minion · Jul 11, 2016

This is the one i'm talking about, I would literally crap myself:

BreakPoint · Jul 11, 2016

MichaelNadal said:
Serve speeds are getting scary.
Wimbledon:

1 M. Raonic CAN 7 147 mph
2 S. Groth AUS 1 142 mph
2 J. Isner USA 3 142 mph
4 D. Thiem AUT 2 140 mph
5 N. Kyrgios AUS 4 139 mph
6 J-W. Tsonga FRA 5 138 mph
7 J. Sock USA 3 137 mph
8 M. Cilic CRO 5 136 mph
8 G. Monfils FRA 1 136 mph
10 T. Berdych CZE 6 135 mph
10 A. Zverev GER 3 135 mph
10 J. Del Potro ARG 3 135 mph
10 S. Wawrinka SUI 2 135 mph

It's amazing that some of the "shorter" guys (e.g., Thiem, Sock, Tsonga, Wawrinka, etc.) can hit serves almost as big as the much taller guys.

MichaelNadal · Jul 11, 2016

Minion said:
This is the one i'm talking about, I would literally crap myself:

The weird thing is that a lot of 130-135's look faster than that one.

Mainad · Jul 11, 2016

BreakPoint said:
It does matter because it's not Wimbledon. If you play a different tournament at Flushing Meadows, that doesn't make it the US Open. Likewise, playing a Davis Cup tie at Roland Garros doesn't make it the French Open. Everything is different.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. Playing and beating someone in the final of a big tournament at a certain venue must always give you confidence that you can do it again at that same venue no matter what the tournament is called. I'm sure I would feel that and I bet so would many players. Federer actually mentioned it just before their semi-final last year. He was out for revenge and he got it. It was very much on his mind.

BreakPoint said:
If Raonic was forced to go for more on his serves in the final then why were his average 1st and 2nd serves both slower than in the SF? If Murray is a better returner than Federer, then Raonic should have been hitting bigger serves against Murray than against Federer, but the opposite was true.

I don't have the stats to compare but I do know he hit some of his fastest serves at Murray although maybe not as consistently as he did in the semi-final. He definitely hit far fewer aces than his average for the tournament but that was almost certainly due to nerves and the pressure of Murray's returns. No 2 matches are ever identical and how we perform in one doesn't always carry over into the next especially for the less experienced players like Raonic. It nearly always depends on the match-up and Raonic already had the experience of beating Federer in a final this year (Brisbane) so may have felt a bit more confident against him although even then, he nearly lost. On the other hand, Murray has been beating Raonic all year (4 times) and beat him as recently as 3 weeks ago in another grasscourt final. That, coupled with the pressure and nerves of playing in his maiden Slam final, may have taken its toll.

BreakPoint · Jul 11, 2016

Raonic vs. Murray, Final
Average 1st serve: 126mph
Average 2nd serve: 107mph

Raonic vs. Federer, Semi-final
Average 1st serve: 129mph
Average 2nd serve: 110mph

Mainad · Jul 11, 2016

BreakPoint said:
Raonic vs. Murray, Final
Average 1st serve: 126mph
Average 2nd serve: 107mph

Raonic vs. Federer, Semi-final
Average 1st serve: 129mph
Average 2nd serve: 110mph

Thanks. So he shaved a bit off for Murray. Interesting. I'm going with nerves!

Gary Duane · Jul 11, 2016

Mainad said:
I don't have the stats to compare but I do know he hit some of his fastest serves at Murray although maybe not as consistently as he did in the semi-final.

Raonic was under pressure from the get-go. Murray served notice on him by breaking him in the first set. How often does Raonic break back in a set against a guy like Murray?

So things were not going his way.

Of course he was not going to serve as well as he did in the last match. Federer, for the record, ended up winning 19% of his return games on grass this year. Yes, he came back from an injury. Yes, he did get better. But Murray was around 30% for the year on grass in return games and most likely went up on returning at Wimbledon.

I expected Murray to break Raonic. If anything, Murray had a bad day with BPs, getting only one when he had so many opportunities. Out of all the winners and finalists at Wimbledon over the last 25 years, Murray is #5 and #7 in winning return games. He is #8 for all games.

Raonic won 13% of his games on return this year on grass. I don't care how high people like JMac are on him. He still has a LONG way to improving his return.

Minion · Jul 11, 2016

Maybe, because Murray is a better returner than Federer, Raonic opted for placement, rather than power in the final?

Gary Duane · Jul 11, 2016

Mainad said:
I don't have the stats to compare but I do know he hit some of his fastest serves at Murray although maybe not as consistently as he did in the semi-final.

Raonic was under pressure from the get-go. Murray served notice on him by breaking him in the first set. How often does Raonic break back in a set against a guy like Murray?

So things were not going his way.

Of course he was not going to serve as well as he did in the last match. Federer, for the record, ended up winning 19% of his return games on grass this year. Yes, he came back from an injury. Yes, he did get better. But Murray was around 30% for the year on grass in return games and most likely went up on returning at Wimbledon.

I expected Murray to break Raonic. If anything, Murray had a bad day with BPs, getting only one when he had so many opportunities. Out of all the winners and finalists at Wimbledon over the last 25 years, Murray is #5 and #7 in winning return games. He is #8 for all games.

Raonic won 13% of his games on return this year on grass. I don't care how high people like JMac are on him. He still has a LONG way to improving his return.

He has the honor of being the second worst returner on grass I've tracked on grass in the last 25 years who either won Wimbledon or made the final, second only to Ivanisevic in 2001. But Ivanisevic was making a last stand. He had far worse years. And he had a miracle run at Wimbledon that year!

BreakPoint · Jul 11, 2016

Minion said:
Maybe, because Murray is a better returner than Federer, Raonic opted for placement, rather than power in the final?

I think when faced with a better returner, most people go for more power on their serves.

Gary Duane · Jul 11, 2016

BreakPoint said:
I think when faced with a better returner, most people go for more power on their serves.

Yes, but great servers also lose confidence when their serves keep coming back, and one thing servebots have in common is that they can't usually string two more matches together, back to back, serving great at the end of tournaments, otherwise people like Isner would have slams.

BreakPoint · Jul 11, 2016

Gary Duane said:
Yes, but great servers also lose confidence when their serves keep coming back, and one thing servebots have in common is that they can't usually string two more matches together, back to back, serving great at the end of tournaments, otherwise people like Isner would have slams.

Sampras used to do it routinely. I believe he's won Wimbledon without having his serve broken in the entire tournament.

Minion · Jul 11, 2016

BreakPoint said:
Sampras used to do it routinely. I believe he's won Wimbledon without having his serve broken in the entire tournament.

Yes, but Sampras is arguably the best server in history, just his motion is of the gods. No fair bringing him into the conversation - we're talking about mortals here.

Deleted member 3771 · Jul 11, 2016

Felt a bit sorry for Fed during the semi. It looked like Raonic's barrage of booming serves were going to rip Fed's arm out of it's socket when he was trying to block them back. It was like an oversized bully picking on a little kid by relentlessly flicking his ear. Wouldn't be surprised if Fed's arm was numb for a week after that match. It was a stunning contrast to Murray's return. Muzz looked like Captain America using his shield to deflect Roanic's bombs straight back to him with interest.

roundiesee · Jul 11, 2016

Nice post OP- one of your better ones!

I'm happy for Murray, but I'm also sad we didn't get to see a Federer-Murray final

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