How do you rate Federer's chances at AO 17?

underground · Dec 18, 2016

Put it this way: 2015 Fed is more than capable of beating everyone on the tour going by current form right now.

Don't forget 2016 Fed didn't play terribly either. In 2013 Fed's confidence hit an all time low, but 2016 Fed was just being kept from match play from injuries, his losses to lower ranked players were more due to rust (and has proven soon by managing to reach the SF in Wimbledon).

In 2014 Fed came back revitalized at the AO and was only stopped by a red-hot Rafa. I don't see anyone in such form coming into the AO this year.

I seriously think Fed can make a decent deep run (not necessarily winning, but if he gets a good draw that isn't impossible either), even with a bad seeding, I think he can cause one or two upsets and make the QF minimum. Regardless of what happens, I do hope Fed will have to play one of the top guys, just to see where his game is at. I'll be very much looking forward to the tournament.

And yes I still think Fed can beat Murray.

Red Rick · Dec 18, 2016

Poisoned Slice · Dec 18, 2016

5000000000/1

tennisaddict · Dec 18, 2016

I hope he avoids Djokovic till later rounds. Murray or Stan will be good for R4

Dope Reign · Dec 18, 2016

Highly unlikely. He'll do well to get to the second week. If he actually won it, it would be one of the more remarkable sporting stories of our time. Somewhat similar to what O'Sullivan did at the World snooker Championships in 2013.(I think it was 2013)

Maestroesque · Dec 18, 2016

He needs to avoid wawrinka

Urkezi · Dec 18, 2016

So hard to tell as nobody saw him play for almost 6 months. Realistically, a 4R would be positive, a QF could be considered a very successful outing, a SF would be a terrific result, a final would be stuff dreams are made of and a win would be you playing a videogame.

Skeletroll · Dec 18, 2016

He can win it easily if he does the most important thing, if he believes in himself.

underground · Dec 18, 2016

Urkezi said:
So hard to tell as nobody saw him play for almost 6 months. Realistically, a 4R would be positive, a QF could be considered a very successful outing, a SF would be a terrific result, a final would be stuff dreams are made of and a win would be you playing a videogame.

I'm posting all this because in 2014 nobody expected Fed to get anywhere deep in the draw. He ended up having to go through Tsonga and Murray, the same opponents he struggled mightily in 2013, and dispatched them in 3 and 4 to reach the SF (and Fed really should have finished Murray in straights).

SpinToWin · Dec 18, 2016

VladimirJ · Dec 18, 2016

Higher than Murray's.

Tatenda · Dec 18, 2016

they are neither great nor poor
they are okay
it will be up to in terms of the level he can bring

so desperate to see nadal and federer play well again

Dope Reign · Dec 18, 2016

underground said:
I'm posting all this because in 2014 nobody expected Fed to get anywhere deep in the draw. He ended up having to go through Tsonga and Murray, the same opponents he struggled mightily in 2013, and dispatched them in 3 and 4 to reach the SF (and Fed really should have finished Murray in straights).

Murray 2014 recovering from back surgery. A shadow of the player Fed faced in 13, and he still lost a set to him.

cc0509 · Dec 18, 2016

Realistically, I can't see him winning it and if he does how much of a joke will players younger than Federer and this field be if a 35 year old player can come back after basically a year off with injury and win a slam?

Rafa the King · Dec 18, 2016

Slim, not impossible.

Dave1982 · Dec 18, 2016

underground said:
Put it this way: 2015 Fed is more than capable of beating everyone on the tour going by current form right now.

Don't forget 2016 Fed didn't play terribly either. In 2013 Fed's confidence hit an all time low, but 2016 Fed was just being kept from match play from injuries, his losses to lower ranked players were more due to rust (and has proven soon by managing to reach the SF in Wimbledon).

In 2014 Fed came back revitalized at the AO and was only stopped by a red-hot Rafa. I don't see anyone in such form coming into the AO this year.

I seriously think Fed can make a decent deep run (not necessarily winning, but if he gets a good draw that isn't impossible either), even with a bad seeding, I think he can cause one or two upsets and make the QF minimum. Regardless of what happens, I do hope Fed will have to play one of the top guys, just to see where his game is at. I'll be very much looking forward to the tournament.

And yes I still think Fed can beat Murray.

Tough to predict how Federer will fare at 2017 AO...be interesting to see how he fares upon his return at Hopman Cup, but even that probably won't give us much indication of what to expect.
In my mind I tend to agree that a QF appearance would be a pretty solid result and probably what most will be predicting from him....in reality though what will be his lowest seeding in quite sometime could be his Achilles Heel and he might need a bit of luck if he's to even make the final 8.

Also only chance of Federer beating Murray would be if they met in the Final...and even then I'd consider his chances remote.

JRAJ1988 · Dec 18, 2016

4th round or semi finals, within that bracket, ONLY if he breezes through the first 3 rounds. Stamina rather than ability will shape his AO, maybe the avoidance of Djokovic in the draw.

JRAJ1988 · Dec 18, 2016

By the by where would his ranking be if he fails to equal his performances at last years Brisbane and Australian Open?

meltphace 6 · Dec 18, 2016

21 consecutive golden sets. You read it here first.

tennis_pro · Dec 18, 2016

Depends on the draw. Being seeded 16th or 17th won't help him a lot...

I'll be very happy if he reaches the QF.

Deleted member 307496 · Dec 18, 2016

JRAJ1988 said:
By the by where would his ranking be if he fails to equal his performances at last years Brisbane and Australian Open?

Out of the top 30.

The Fedfather · Dec 18, 2016

Roger's serve can get him past the 1st and 2nd rounds and at that point I expect his overall game to improve so that he'd get the third victory but that's about it. Even with a favourable draw the 4th round is probably the most realistic result.

wangs78 · Dec 18, 2016

Impossible to say. The good news is everybody has been on break so everyone will have to play themselves into form come January. If Roger can make it to the quarters, AND his knee and back are fully healthy, then I think he's a threat against anyone including Murray and Djokovic.

Sysyphus · Dec 18, 2016

The betting market seems to give a fairly reasonable picture as it usually does: Fed's fifth favorite giving you your money's worth 21 times over, slightly ahead of guys like Nishikori, Raonic and the Nadal still. It's both unreasonable to say that he has zero chance or that he's a serious title contender. He's in there with a long shot, is the reality. In the last slam the winner didn't have great odds heading into it, just to remind you. Although Stan probably had slightly stronger odds, 15 maybe?

Noelan · Dec 18, 2016

Depends on draw, may end up in R4, could reach QF or even SF

Shaolin · Dec 18, 2016

7.62% chance of winning

Krish872007 · Dec 18, 2016

Considering that he'll be ranked 16 or 17, this one is going to be heavily draw dependent like never before.

Poisoned Slice · Dec 18, 2016

Sysyphus said:
The betting market seems to give a fairly reasonable picture as it usually does: Fed's fifth favorite giving you your money's worth 21 times over, slightly ahead of guys like Nishikori, Raonic and the Nadal still. It's both unreasonable to say that he has zero chance or that he's a serious title contender. He's in there with a long shot, is the reality. In the last slam the winner didn't have great odds heading into it, just to remind you. Although Stan probably had slightly stronger odds, 15 maybe?

Pretty much like Phil Taylor over on the greatest sport there is. Getting him at 10/1 this year. It might not seem like the biggest long shot ever, but you have to remember that Taylor has been odds on for his matches for years. If not odds on, certainly not 10/1. I'd say Taylor has a better chance than Federer. I don't consider either of them to be serious contenders. Still unreasonable to say they have zero chance, even if my odds on the previous post say something else

VexlanderPrime · Dec 18, 2016

I think Fed COULD beat anyone but Andy or Djoker. Cannot see him beating Andy unless Andy's level plummeted. Fed would need to be in 2015 form to beat this version of Andy and we know the chances of that are basically zero. Maybe later in the season, I'm not writing Fed off at all but he needs match time. I expect Fed to lose before the SFs to someone like Thiem/Wawa.

Poisoned Slice · Dec 18, 2016

And you better believe that Phil thinks he is there to drink the winners champagne, just like Rog.

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil · Dec 18, 2016

His maximum is the semifinal I think.

Get ready for the same final for a third straight year lads.

Deleted member 743561 · Dec 18, 2016

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil said:
His maximum is the semifinal I think.

Get ready for the same final for a third straight year lads.

Even with the new greased lightning surface? I've been led to believe that they'll be encouraging the use of hard court cleats this year.

In seriousness, B05 at majors presents a bridge too far for Fed now. I do think (read: hope) he can light up a couple of guys over the course of a couple of sets, though. But Jordan never did think he'd be designing kicks with metal spikes in the soles.

Maestroesque · Dec 18, 2016

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil said:
Get ready for the same final for a third straight year lads.

No thanks

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil · Dec 18, 2016

FedFosterWallace said:
Even with the new greased lightning surface? I've been led to believe that they'll be encouraging the use of hard court cleats this year.

Andy's recent run and Novak's history there makes me relatively confident.

I just hope there is no twist to this April Fools joke.

Maestroesque said:
No thanks

No thanks to the most amazing match up?

Deleted member 743561 · Dec 18, 2016

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil said:
Andy's recent run and Novak's history there makes me relatively confident.

I just hope there is no twist to this April Fools joke.

No thanks to the most amazing match up?

Exactly, exactly. That's gonna be better than some people expect. If Sampras had gotten a crack at it, his dunks would've counted for even more.

KINGROGER · Dec 18, 2016

Huge chance of winning it in my eyes.

Limpinhitter · Dec 18, 2016

underground said:
Put it this way: 2015 Fed is more than capable of beating everyone on the tour going by current form right now.

Don't forget 2016 Fed didn't play terribly either. In 2013 Fed's confidence hit an all time low, but 2016 Fed was just being kept from match play from injuries, his losses to lower ranked players were more due to rust (and has proven soon by managing to reach the SF in Wimbledon).

In 2014 Fed came back revitalized at the AO and was only stopped by a red-hot Rafa. I don't see anyone in such form coming into the AO this year.

I seriously think Fed can make a decent deep run (not necessarily winning, but if he gets a good draw that isn't impossible either), even with a bad seeding, I think he can cause one or two upsets and make the QF minimum. Regardless of what happens, I do hope Fed will have to play one of the top guys, just to see where his game is at. I'll be very much looking forward to the tournament.

And yes I still think Fed can beat Murray.

I wonder if it would be advisable for Federer to skip the hard court majors this year to see where he stands health wise. Two weeks of five set matches on modern hard courts with all of the aggregate they put in the acrylic paint now-a-days make it very hard on players' joints, especially when those joints have suffered a previous, serious, injury requiring surgical repair. I'd like to see Fed stick to grass and clay majors, and play hard court events that are only 1 week and 3 set matches.

merwy · Dec 18, 2016

To quote Andy Roddick: Slim

SinjinCooper · Dec 18, 2016

Smart money has him as a co-favorite with Del Potro.

Djokovic is so far off form as to be a complete non-factor. Nadal is so many years removed from relevance that it's almost hard to consider him a serious professional at this point. Wawrinka will roll the dice, and if it comes up seven, he'll be dangerous here, but any other outcome and he's an easy out -- just random chance whether this'll be the one tournament this year he shows up, and if he does, nobody will beat him...but those chances are slim. Only other top seed who's a factor is Murray, and Federer owns him.

Nobody else in the field can trouble Federer, except Del Potro.

They both have to avoid injuries and guys on ludicrous hot streaks, but that's true of every tournament, ever. Barring upsets and major surprises, I see nothing in either Fed's or Del Potro's way. They should both have easy, deep runs, unless they run into one another. Which means an easy run to the final for at least one of them. Maybe both.

Deleted member 743561 · Dec 18, 2016

SinjinCooper said:
Smart money has him as a co-favorite with Del Potro.

Djokovic is so far off form as to be a complete non-factor. Nadal is so many years removed from relevance that it's almost hard to consider him a serious professional at this point. Wawrinka will roll the dice, and if it comes up seven, he'll be dangerous here, but any other outcome and he's an easy out -- just random chance whether this'll be the one tournament this year he shows up, and if he does, nobody will beat him...but those chances are slim. Only other top seed who's a factor is Murray, and Federer owns him.

Nobody else in the field can trouble Federer, except Del Potro.

They both have to avoid injuries and guys on ludicrous hot streaks, but that's true of every tournament, ever. Barring upsets and major surprises, I see nothing in either Fed's or Del Potro's way. They should both have easy, deep runs, unless they run into one another. Which means an easy run to the final for at least one of them. Maybe both.

Post amused me, on many levels. Let's go, Rojah, let's go!!

6august · Dec 18, 2016

If he can avoid Djokovic and Nadal his chance is huge. With all my respect to the rest, Federer is automatically my favorite in a Slam match.

Djo/Nad is another story. They always find a way to trouble Federer, mainly because they have the confidence that the rest don't, including Murray.

So I'd say:

With Djo.Nad: less than 10%
Without Djo.Nad: no less than 60%.

BeatlesFan · Dec 18, 2016

underground said:
And yes I still think Fed can beat Murray.

With the assistance of a time machine, you're right. Otherwise... no. At least never again in a best 3/5 set format.

PMChambers · Dec 18, 2016

I said it would be very unlikely he wins another Major many years ago. But I take that back, 2017 is looking better than 14,15 &16. I think he can beat Murray and if Djokovic still AWAL he has good chance to get to a final without expending too much. He also has chance to meet Murray early with his seeding.

dr325i · Dec 18, 2016

Winning it... Slightly better than mine. Slightly.

Deleted member 716271 · Dec 18, 2016

Like Roddick said after the AO 07 SF beatdown of anyone else's chances against Fed in that tourney "slim"

Jackuar · Dec 18, 2016

Fed vs Murray -- Fed win
Fed vs Nadal -- Fed win
Fed vs Wawrinka -- 60% to Fed, largely depends on what version on Stan shows up
Fed vs Djoko -- 50% chance
Fed vs anybody else -- Fed win

Not much has changed since year 19xx....

Mainad · Dec 18, 2016

underground said:
I'm posting all this because in 2014 nobody expected Fed to get anywhere deep in the draw. He ended up having to go through Tsonga and Murray, the same opponents he struggled mightily in 2013, and dispatched them in 3 and 4 to reach the SF (and Fed really should have finished Murray in straights).

Given that it was Murray's first event since his back surgery and he wasn't at his best (and wouldn't be for the rest of 2014) he did very well to force Federer to 4 sets!

Mainad · Dec 18, 2016

Jackuar said:
Fed vs Murray -- Fed win
Fed vs Nadal -- Fed win
Fed vs Wawrinka -- 60% to Fed, largely depends on what version on Stan shows up
Fed vs Djoko -- 50% chance
Fed vs anybody else -- Fed win

Not much has changed since year 19xx....

So, after a 6 month layoff with injury, you think he's just gonna tear through the draw at the AO scattering opponents left, right and centre including the recently crowned world #1? Interesting.

The Green Mile · Dec 18, 2016

After Roger takes care of Novak in the 3rd round, a QF loss to Gilles Simon.

Noelan · Dec 18, 2016

6august said:
If he can avoid Djokovic and Nadal his chance is huge. With all my respect to the rest, Federer is automatically my favorite in a Slam match.

Djo/Nad is another story. They always find a way to trouble Federer, mainly because they have the confidence that the rest don't, including Murray.

So I'd say:

With Djo.Nad: less than 10%
Without Djo.Nad: no less than 60%.

Fanboys are confident that he could win against Nadal too

How do you rate Federer's chances at AO 17?

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