Why there will never be a tennis GOAT

Sport · Jan 31, 2019

What is a surfaces' specialist? A player who is more succesful in one surface than the others.

In tennis, there are 2 Grand Slams on hard courts, 1 on grass and 1 on clay. It gives a clear advantage to hard court specialists. Thus, the Grand Slam race is utterly irrelevant since it gives advantage to the hard court specialists, not the overall most accomplished player.

The only way that the Grand Slam race would make sense is if the Australian Open and the US Open rotate every year to have one Grand Slam per surface. For example:

2020: Australian Open is held and the US Open is not held.
2021: US Open is held and the Australian Open is not held.
2022: Australian Open is held and the US Open is not held.
2023: US Open is held and the Australian Open is not held.

Before Djokovic fans complain, think about it: if there were 2 Grand Slams on clay Nadal could potentially finish his career with 30 Grand Slams. Would that make him the GOAT or simply the greatest clay player? If there were 2 Grand Slams on grass, Federer could potentially finish his career with 26 Grand Slams or more. Would that make Federer the GOAT or simply the greatest grass player?

Djokovic can end up with 23 Grand Slams, but it will only be because 2 Grand Slams are on hard courts. If 2 Grand Slams were on clay, Nadal would win the Grand Slam race. If 2 Grand Slams were on grass, Federer would win the Grand Slam race.

There can only be a GOAT of surfaces:

Clay GOAT: Nadal
Grass GOAT: Federer
Hard courts GOAT: Djokovic

Overall GOAT: nobody.

Sport · Jan 31, 2019

Grand Slam race without the US Open:

Federer 15
Nadal 14
Djokovic 11

Grand Slam race without the Australian Open
Nadal 16
Federer 14
Djokovic 7

If 33% of Grand Slams were held on hard courts, 33% on clay and 33% on grass, the Grand Slam race would genuinely measure the most accomplished and all-around player.

swordtennis · Jan 31, 2019

CGOAT
GOAT
BOAT

Deleted member 733170 · Jan 31, 2019

NTOAT (Nicest Try Of All Time)

swordtennis · Jan 31, 2019

If there were no OATs the world would be a far better place! Ban the OAT!

jm1980 · Jan 31, 2019

HC is a balanced surface that doesn't favor any particular style, and it's also very prevalent on tour. Yes, it's Djokovic's favorite surface but it's also almost everyone else's favorite surface. As a result, the competition is stiffer on HC than on clay, specially now.

Nadal might have had a legitimate gripe if there used to be 2 clay Slams and now there is only one. But the surface distribution in the Slams hasn't changed since Nadal first picked up a racquet.

SecondToNone · Jan 31, 2019

Sport said:
In tennis, there are 2 Grand Slams on hard courts, 1 on grass and 1 on clay. It gives a clear advantage to hard court specialists.

It's logical to have game suited more to hardcourts.

Sport said:
If there were 2 Grand Slams on clay Nadal could potentially finish his career with 30 Grand Slams.

I disagree. If tour were more oriented towards clay, then players would shift their game more suited to clay.

Lew II · Jan 31, 2019

Competition is tougher on hardcourt because players train on and for it.

MeatTornado · Jan 31, 2019

Interesting that the slam race is "utterly irrelevant" now that Rafa's chances of passing Federer are looking worse and worse.

Sport · Jan 31, 2019

jm1980 said:
HC is a balanced surface that doesn't favor any particular style.

Then why does Djokovic have 7 Australian Open and 1 Roland Garros?

There is no such thing as a "neutral" surface which doesn't suit any style. Hard courts suit Djokovic's style more than Federer's or Nadal's one.

Sport · Jan 31, 2019

MeatTornado said:
Interesting that the slam race is "utterly irrelevant" now that Rafa's chances of passing Federer are looking worse and worse.

Nadal can easily pass Federer only by winning more Roland Garros. He can win 4 extra RG until he is 40 or so, thanks to the Weak Next Gen Era. The same applies to Djokovic, who can win 23 Grand Slams with the Weak Next Gen Era.

Eren · Jan 31, 2019

This is true.

However, GOAT is someone who is the GOAT on all surfaces. Since that person does not exist, we should look at who is closest to being GOAT on all surfaces, which comes down to being the best at 2/3 surfaces.

As of now:

Clay GOAT: Nadal
Grass GOAT: Federer
Hard courts GOAT: ~~Djokovic~~ Federer

Not sure how you concluded that 11<10.

As far as I am concerned, Djokovic is up there with Federer on HC, and thus they're equals. One Slam deficit is not huge. But to put Djokovic over Federer on HC is ridiculous.

Federev · Jan 31, 2019

Sport said:
Then why does Djokovic have 7 Australian Open and 1 Roland Garros?

There is no such thing as a "neutral" surface which doesn't suit any style. Hard courts suit Djokovic's style more than Federer's or Nadal's one.

Not fast ones though.

... But point well taken - in fact, your points is only proved more by the fact that even the same surface suits different players more depending on the speed.

BHud · Jan 31, 2019

Nad's army spinning again...what happened to all the EPIC BULL threads? Clearly they were BULL#@!*

Federev · Jan 31, 2019

Sport said:
What is a surfaces' specialist? A player who is more succesful in one surface than the others.

In tennis, there are 2 Grand Slams on hard courts, 1 on grass and 1 on clay. It gives a clear advantage to hard court specialists. Thus, the Grand Slam race is utterly irrelevant since it gives advantage to the hard court specialists, not the overall most accomplished player.

The only way that the Grand Slam race would make sense is if the Australian Open and the US Open rotate every year to have one Grand Slam per surface. For example:

2020: Australian Open is held and the US Open is not held.
2021: US Open is held and the Australian Open is not held.
2022: Australian Open is held and the US Open is not held.
2023: US Open is held and the Australian Open is not held.

Before Djokovic fans complain, think about it: if there were 2 Grand Slams on clay Nadal could potentially finish his career with 30 Grand Slams. Would that make him the GOAT or simply the greatest clay player? If there were 2 Grand Slams on grass, Federer could potentially finish his career with 26 Grand Slams or more. Would that make Federer the GOAT or simply the greatest grass player?

Djokovic can end up with 25 Grand Slams, but it will only be because 2 Grand Slams are on hard courts. If 2 Grand Slams were on clay, Nadal would win the Grand Slam race. If 2 Grand Slams were on grass, Federer would win the Grand Slam race.

There can only be a GOAT of surfaces:

Clay GOAT: Nadal
Grass GOAT: Federer
Hard courts GOAT: Djokovic

Overall GOAT: nobody.

I like this.

Well put, simple and obvious.

Except ... I think Federer’s best on HC beats Novak’s.

This is only borne out by the fact that they are both well past their peak and Fed still leads the HC slam race 11-10.

AceSalvo · Jan 31, 2019

BHud said:
Nad's army spinning again...what happened to all the EPIC BULL threads? Clearly they were BULL#@!*

Shiftin goal posts now that Epic Bull’s margin to surpass Fed is getting thinner and thinner.

serveandvolley_ · Jan 31, 2019

Federev said:
I like this.

Well put, simple and obvious.

Except ... I think Federer’s best on HC beats Novak’s.

This is only borne out by the fact that they are both well past their peak and Fed still leads the HC slam race 11-10.

Eren said:
As far as I am concerned, Djokovic is up there with Federer on HC, and thus they're equals. One Slam deficit is not huge. But to put Djokovic over Federer on HC is ridiculous.

Djokovic is the HC Goat, he's also 6 years younger, many more AO and USO's to come

.

AceSalvo · Jan 31, 2019

Federev said:
I like this.

Well put, simple and obvious.

Except ... I think Federer’s best on HC beats Novak’s.

This is only borne out by the fact that they are both well past their peak and Fed still leads the HC slam race 11-10.

OP just wants to prove Fed is not GOAT. That’s all that matters.

Sysyphus · Jan 31, 2019

there's no inherent rule about tennis that suggests that there should be total parity between different conditions.

The pro tennis tour has a certain distribution of conditions that it chooses, and it's the job of the players to adapt themselves to that framework, whatever it may be. If I grew up playing on an ice-skating rink, I can't complain that the tennis tour is biased against me for not including ice courts on tour. It's their job to set what framework of conditions that they please, and my job to by able to compete within that framework. If you happen to prefer some condition that isn't widespread on tour, then too bad for you.

Sport · Jan 31, 2019

Eren said:
This is true.

However, GOAT is someone who is the GOAT on all surfaces. Since that person does not exist, we should look at who is closest to being GOAT on all surfaces, which comes down to being the best at 2/3 surfaces.

As of now:

Clay GOAT: Nadal
Grass GOAT: Federer
Hard courts GOAT: ~~Djokovic~~ Federer

Not sure how you concluded that 11<10.

As far as I am concerned, Djokovic is up there with Federer on HC, and thus they're equals. One Slam deficit is not huge. But to put Djokovic over Federer on HC is ridiculous.

That is an interesting observation. You are right in concluding that 11 > 10. But seeing Djokovic's form and age, I assumed he would surpass Federer's GS record on hard.

I agree that Federer can be considered greater on hard as of now, but looking at Djokovic's form and age... it seems very likely he will surpass Federer on hard.

Eren · Jan 31, 2019

serveandvolley_ said:
Djokovic is the HC Goat, he's also 6 years younger, many more AO and USO's to come.

Potential does not count. 11>10

Equal at most. Djokovic on HC is not better than Federer as things stand now.

He might win many more RGs to come right? We don't know, but Borg > Djokovic on clay until Djoke wins 5 to 6 more RGs

.

AceSalvo · Jan 31, 2019

serveandvolley_ said:
Djokovic will be the HC Goat, he's also 6 years younger, many more AO and USO's to come.

Let’s check back same time next year.

serveandvolley_ · Jan 31, 2019

Eren said:
Potential does not count. 11>10

Equal at most. Djokovic on HC is not better than Federer as things stand now.

He might win many more RGs to come right? We don't know, but Borg > Djokovic on clay until Djoke wins 5 to 6 more RGs .

AceSalvo said:
Let’s check back same time next year.

As things stand now... okay sure, even though his W-L is better on hard court (and also Novak won 10 in 11 years, whereas Federer won 11 in 14 years), it's the number of slam's that matter, according to you. Let's not have any excuses in 2022 then

.

DMP · Jan 31, 2019

Here is a list, off the top of my head, of things which have changed in tennis over the years...

- intercontinental travel by boat
- intercontinental travel by plane
- travel in comfort
- travel in discomfort
- Davis Cup the premier competition
- Slams the major competitions
- sanctioned tournaments the major competitions
- unsanctioned tournaments the major competitions
- competition mainly on natural surfaces
- competition mainly on hard courts
- competition on 'old' grass
- competition on 'new' grass
- competition with wooden rackets
- competition with metal rackets
- competition with composite rackets
- competition with gut strings
- competition with synthetic strings
- competition with 8 seeds
- competition with 16 seeds
- competition with 32 seeds
- competition with continuous play
- competition with changeover breaks
- competition without tiebreaks
- competition with tiebreaks
- competition with medical timeouts
- competition without medical timeouts
- competition on wood
- competition on asphalt
- competition on carpet/canvas
- competition on a few surfaces
- competition on many surface
- competition with valuable endorsements
- competition without valuable endorsements
- competition for prizes big enough to set the winner up for life
- competition for prizes not big enough to set winner up for life
- 3 set finals
- 5 set finals
- 2 weeks separating the FO and Wimbledon
- 3 weeks separating the FO and Wimbledon

Federev · Jan 31, 2019

AceSalvo said:
OP just wants to prove Fed is not GOAT. That’s all that matters.

Well...

I think Fed is the GOAT if there is one. He is for me anyway.

BUT...

when you’re fave is not the Clay GOAT but the Clay GOATis not the all around GOAT then I think there is an argument to be made that we’re trying to define something that needs more nuance.

So I appreciate @Sport ’s argument here.

I think he’s got a point and maybe it would bring more sanity to this place if we looked at it this way.

Red Rick · Jan 31, 2019

Looks like Nadal lost a Chelem final bois

Eren · Jan 31, 2019

serveandvolley_ said:
As things stand now... okay sure, even though his W-L is better on hard court (and also Novak won 10 in 11 years, whereas Federer won 11 in 14 years), it's the number of slam's that matter, according to you. Let's not have any excuses in 2022 then.

What excuses? If Djokovic has more HC Slams than Fedr, Djoke is undeniably GOAT on HC right?

But why pretend he is the HC GOAT already when it hasn't happened yet. He will be definitely, given his age and form.

serveandvolley_ · Jan 31, 2019

Eren said:
What excuses? If Djokovic has more HC Slams then Fedr, Djoke is undeniably GOAT on HC right?

But why pretend he is the HC GOAT already when it hasn't happened yet. He will be definitely, given his age and form.

There's a habit of bringing things up such as weak era/less competition when numbers start getting too close. But I agree, he will be definitely.

GabeT · Jan 31, 2019

Sysyphus said:
there's no inherent rule about tennis that suggests that there should be total parity between different conditions.

The pro tennis tour has certain a certain distribution of conditions that it chooses, and it's the job of the players to adapt themselves to that framework, whatever it may be. If I grew up playing on an ice-skating rink, I can't complain that the tennis tour is biased against me for not including ice courts on tour. It's their job to set what framework of conditions that they please, and my job to by able to compete within that framework. If you happen to prefer some condition that isn't widespread on tour, then too bad for you.

Exactly. Yes, Nadal would have likely won more if all tennis was played on clay. So what? That’s not how the tennis pro tour works. And in any case players train to deal with the conditions they face. If more tennis was played in grass, more tennis players would train in it from the beginning.

Eren · Jan 31, 2019

serveandvolley_ said:
There's a habit of bringing things up such as weak era/less competition when numbers start getting too close. But I agree, he will be definitely.

Yes, you're right.

But consider this. In 2004-2008 Fedr won 8/10 of the HC majors. After 2010, Federer had a 9-1 advantage in majors won on HC relative to Djokovic. It's 11-10 now, that's scary.

If, after all of Federer's effort, he falls short to get the most HC majors, then it was not meant to be and Djokovic fully deserves to get the accolade of Greatest Hard Court player Of All Time.

TheGhostOfAgassi · Jan 31, 2019

Since the slam surfaces been changing through the years as well it’s right to divide the goat status like Sport suggest.

GabeT · Jan 31, 2019

Sport said:
What is a surfaces' specialist? A player who is more succesful in one surface than the others.

In tennis, there are 2 Grand Slams on hard courts, 1 on grass and 1 on clay. It gives a clear advantage to hard court specialists. Thus, the Grand Slam race is utterly irrelevant since it gives advantage to the hard court specialists, not the overall most accomplished player.

The only way that the Grand Slam race would make sense is if the Australian Open and the US Open rotate every year to have one Grand Slam per surface. For example:

2020: Australian Open is held and the US Open is not held.
2021: US Open is held and the Australian Open is not held.
2022: Australian Open is held and the US Open is not held.
2023: US Open is held and the Australian Open is not held.

Before Djokovic fans complain, think about it: if there were 2 Grand Slams on clay Nadal could potentially finish his career with 30 Grand Slams. Would that make him the GOAT or simply the greatest clay player? If there were 2 Grand Slams on grass, Federer could potentially finish his career with 26 Grand Slams or more. Would that make Federer the GOAT or simply the greatest grass player?

Djokovic can end up with 23 Grand Slams, but it will only be because 2 Grand Slams are on hard courts. If 2 Grand Slams were on clay, Nadal would win the Grand Slam race. If 2 Grand Slams were on grass, Federer would win the Grand Slam race.

There can only be a GOAT of surfaces:

Clay GOAT: Nadal
Grass GOAT: Federer
Hard courts GOAT: Djokovic

Overall GOAT: nobody.

It makes no sense to talk of the three surfaces as if they are all equally important. They are not. There are 14 key tournaments every year (what the ATP calls the Big Titles) and only one is played in grass. Wimbledon may be the single most prestigious tournament but grass has been the least important surface for decades. Almost nothing is played in grass anymore. And hard court is much more relevant than clay, simply because many more tournaments are played in HC.

I do agree there can be no GOAT because conditions change all the time. At most we can talk about greatest accomplishments.

True Fanerer · Jan 31, 2019

Lew II said:
Competition is tougher on hardcourt because players train on and for it.

Not at Rafa Nadal Academy.

The Safinator · Jan 31, 2019

There will always be a GOAT, always, we just won't ever agree on who that is.

ibbi · Jan 31, 2019

I agree that the slams should be evenly distributed (not that the Australian and US Open hard courts play much alike) but that doesn't mean getting rid of a slam, it means adding other surfaces.

BBCFAT (Bring Back Carpet For All Time)

WhiskeyEE · Jan 31, 2019

If Nadal held the slam record, would you have made this thread?

Deleted member 763024 · Jan 31, 2019

There will always be a GOAT debate

King No1e · Jan 31, 2019

Sport finally realizes his idol will never be GOAT so he must attack the very concept

ABCD · Jan 31, 2019

tudwell · Jan 31, 2019

TheGhostOfAgassi said:
Since the slam surfaces been changing through the years as well it’s right to divide the goat status like Sport suggest.

The only major change in court surface in Nadal's lifetime was the Australian going from Rebound Ace to Plexicushion. There have been two hard court slams since before Nadal even picked up a racquet. If he and his team decided to train in a way that maximized his chances on clay but diminished his chances on hard, that's on them.

TheGhostOfAgassi · Jan 31, 2019

tudwell said:
The only major change in court surface in Nadal's lifetime was the Australian going from Rebound Ace to Plexicushion. There have been two hard court slams since before Nadal even picked up a racquet. If he and his team decided to train in a way that maximized his chances on clay but diminished his chances on hard, that's on them.

It’s not many years ago AO wasn’t really considered a proper slam and many chose not to even play it. Wasn’t taken as seriously as Wimbledon and RG for Europeans

You never hear an European tennis player say my biggest goal/dream is to win USO or AO.

It’s so many angles to this question and it’s no consensus in the goat status either.

ScentOfDefeat · Jan 31, 2019

WhiskeyEE said:
If Nadal held the slam record, would you have made this thread?

If you were a Nadal fan, would you agree with this?

Deleted member 716271 · Jan 31, 2019

ABCD said:

I enjoy this guy also! I'm subscribed lol

BGod · Jan 31, 2019

The AO use to be slow hard and USO was fast hard. This was why Agassi had more success at the AO in comparison to Sampras.

Meanwhile the WTF was on carpet with a Bo5 Final.

Things were pretty damn perfect in the 90s up until mid 00s.

tudwell · Jan 31, 2019

TheGhostOfAgassi said:
It’s not many years ago AO wasn’t really considered a proper slam and many chose not to even play it. Wasn’t taken as seriously as Wimbledon and RG for Europeans

You never hear an European tennis player say my biggest goal/dream is to win USO or AO.

It’s so many angles to this question and it’s no consensus in the goat status either.

I agree that it's impossible to determine a singular GOAT given all the changes in conditions throughout tennis history. But I think the OP's is a rather, ahem, surface-level analysis of the complications of determining the hypothetical GOAT.

Jonas78 · Jan 31, 2019

Sysyphus said:
there's no inherent rule about tennis that suggests that there should be total parity between different conditions.

The pro tennis tour has certain a certain distribution of conditions that it chooses, and it's the job of the players to adapt themselves to that framework, whatever it may be. If I grew up playing on an ice-skating rink, I can't complain that the tennis tour is biased against me for not including ice courts on tour. It's their job to set what framework of conditions that they please, and my job to by able to compete within that framework. If you happen to prefer some condition that isn't widespread on tour, then too bad for you.

A lot of Rafa-hate in that post

.

Terrific idea btw. We should have a slam at snow surface, this way Norway could win their first slam. Then we could argue it's unfair it isnt two slams on snow, and suddenly we have a Norwegian GOAT.

toby55555 · Jan 31, 2019

Better if the USO was an indoor carpet event, thus four different surfaces and no more rain delays.

uscwang · Jan 31, 2019

The thought of giving all surface equal weight is absurd. By availability, therefore fairness, of each surface around the world, RG should be played every other year, WB maybe once a decade.

Hardcourt is what has made tennis popular around the world. The GS is doing a good job adjusting to this global trend, i.e., changing from 3 grass + 1 clay to what they are today.

KINGROGER · Jan 31, 2019

Sport said:
What is a surfaces' specialist? A player who is more succesful in one surface than the others.

In tennis, there are 2 Grand Slams on hard courts, 1 on grass and 1 on clay. It gives a clear advantage to hard court specialists. Thus, the Grand Slam race is utterly irrelevant since it gives advantage to the hard court specialists, not the overall most accomplished player.

The only way that the Grand Slam race would make sense is if the Australian Open and the US Open rotate every year to have one Grand Slam per surface. For example:

2020: Australian Open is held and the US Open is not held.
2021: US Open is held and the Australian Open is not held.
2022: Australian Open is held and the US Open is not held.
2023: US Open is held and the Australian Open is not held.

Before Djokovic fans complain, think about it: if there were 2 Grand Slams on clay Nadal could potentially finish his career with 30 Grand Slams. Would that make him the GOAT or simply the greatest clay player? If there were 2 Grand Slams on grass, Federer could potentially finish his career with 26 Grand Slams or more. Would that make Federer the GOAT or simply the greatest grass player?

Djokovic can end up with 23 Grand Slams, but it will only be because 2 Grand Slams are on hard courts. If 2 Grand Slams were on clay, Nadal would win the Grand Slam race. If 2 Grand Slams were on grass, Federer would win the Grand Slam race.

There can only be a GOAT of surfaces:

Clay GOAT: Nadal
Grass GOAT: Federer
Hard courts GOAT: Djokovic

Overall GOAT: nobody.

Premature. Djokovic still needs 2 more HC GS, 2 more YEC to surpass Fed on hard court.

TheGhostOfAgassi · Jan 31, 2019

tudwell said:
I agree that it's impossible to determine a singular GOAT given all the changes in conditions throughout tennis history. But I think the OP's is a rather, ahem, surface-level analysis of the complications of determining the hypothetical GOAT.

Is at least more correct than what the Fed fans think.

Why there will never be a tennis GOAT

G.O.A.T.

G.O.A.T.

G.O.A.T.

Deleted member 733170

Guest

G.O.A.T.

Talk Tennis Guru

Semi-Pro

G.O.A.T.

Talk Tennis Guru

G.O.A.T.

G.O.A.T.

Professional

Legend

Hall of Fame

Legend

Legend

Rookie

Legend

Talk Tennis Guru

G.O.A.T.

Professional

Legend

Rookie

Professional

Legend

Bionic Poster

Professional

Rookie

G.O.A.T.

Professional

Talk Tennis Guru

G.O.A.T.

G.O.A.T.

Rookie

G.O.A.T.

G.O.A.T.

Deleted member 763024

Guest

G.O.A.T.

Hall of Fame

G.O.A.T.

Talk Tennis Guru

G.O.A.T.

Deleted member 716271

Guest

G.O.A.T.

G.O.A.T.

Legend

Hall of Fame

Hall of Fame

G.O.A.T.

Talk Tennis Guru

Similar threads