2019 Shanghai Masters Main Thread
- Thread starter James P
- Start date
Red Rick
Bionic Poster
We're all in hiding for you.
marc45
G.O.A.T.
I've been watching just super busy with family soiree last quarter of US Open and prep before. Believe it or not I gave the sign for all clear for me as dinner host after first two sets of final. Had to watch last two sets in replay. They did not want to watch tennis, but all too many ended up around the silent TV which I finally turned volume on for Medvedev's mini comeback in the 5th once again thinking the match would be over any minute as dinner cooled and cooled. Six guests in total. Was able to liven things up even more with some pro Mad Lad cheering.
Other things have tied me up before end of last week. Shanghai is brutal I've been determined to go to bed early so I'm set to catch the later big matches in the week. Last night amazingly out by 10:15, but woke up just before 1 a.m. (1 p.m. Shanghai) and started blearily watching since then which is just insane. Half awake in bed with Ipad so no posting, now up for Thiem match and breakfast.
Hoping to sleep from 9 p.m. til 1 a.m. or so and watch tomorrow's matches; have never fallen asleep so early in my life and back earlier in Asian swing was up til 5 a.m. sometimes. In short poor sleep has kept me out of mood for posting during most of Asian swing.
DVR is my friend for the Asian swing
Djokovic_is_the_best#1
Bionic Poster
Djokovic looking good. Did not expect him to bounce back well straight away. A great win in Japan and he looked sharp in Shanghai too. Onwards and upwards for Novak again!
Mainad
Bionic Poster
He has the occasional shoulder niggles from time to time but they are never too serious. Back in 2011 he retired from a Cincinnati final with Murray because of a sore shoulder. Didn't stop him from winning the US Open a few weeks later.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Oh I use replays on Tennis TV of all matches and wanted to sleep, but it didn't really happen. In theory I here 10-12 p.m. is one of the most productive times to sleep. I want to be able to roust by 5 a.m. for upcoming Euro swing, so going ultra early for Shanghai good with that goal in mind.DVR is my friend for the Asian swing
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
He is always doing well there
Shangri La
Hall of Fame
Two complains: why do I have to purchase tickets seperately for court 3 matches, some of which are actually pretty good. And the ace sonic boom thing was annoying.
But we have Nikolay in the house!
But we have Nikolay in the house!
heninfan99
Talk Tennis Guru
Meles
Bionic Poster
Guitarra perhaps I'm guilty of not watching with a studious enough eye, but do you see the impact of Vampiro? I saw video from grass courts where he had Thiem really practicing the slice and wonder if you've detected some changes.My man Dominic struggled a but vs Busta but a straight set win in Shanghai where he always had hard time is more than OK. Basil should be beatable too me thinks.
If forces to give my best guess I'd say Thiem generally is playing back far on return position even on 2nd serve. Commies today indicated what I like to call the deep bunt has been replace with a more Federesque slice (my term). Its kind if a subtle change to my eyes, but seems like Thiem is in a better position to deal with the server's response. I'd thought his bunt first return highly effective except against the biggest servers. Thiem's solution against Anderson on Louis Armstrong in 2018 was to return from the warning track and by hook or crook get something deep in play and try to survive Anderson's attempts to end the point quickly (worked well). Return is a big thing so clawing out another 1% return points won is something.... Amazingly Beijing was a robust 44.2% return points won and only 66.7% serve points won. Indian Wells was only 37.1% return points won with dominant serve numbers (71.8%). (That serve with last week's return would be nearly unstoppable like Mad Lad.) So any way the return numbers were tremendous in Beijing and the Busta match are back to serve laden like IW, but literally just one match.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Davydenko coaching Khach just in case you're one of those fraudulent groupie types.Two complains: why do I have to purchase tickets seperately for court 3 matches, some of which are actually pretty good. And the ace sonic boom thing was annoying.
But we have Nikolay in the house!
Shangri La
Hall of Fame
Davydenko coaching Khach just in case you're one of those fraudulent groupie types.
I know that. He was walking out of the court after Khach's match talking to his pal about macth serve stats.
guitarra
Professional
I fully agree on ROS vs serve Shanghai vs Beijing. Dominic ROS today was worse compared to last week while serve was way better. But I think it’s mainly connected with the speed of the surface. Shanghai was always super fast and this year rumour has it - even faster while Beijing is slower. Hence the difference. It does not favour Dominic who always struggled here but the general improvements especially on ROS are obvious. Hoping for a good match vs Basil. The draw here is really kind so I think even a SF is not out of the question. I know - one match at the time - but who do you think would be better in the QF: Agut or Berreta?Guitarra perhaps I'm guilty of not watching with a studious enough eye, but do you see the impact of Vampiro? I saw video from grass courts where he had Thiem really practicing the slice and wonder if you've detected some changes.
If forces to give my best guess I'd say Thiem generally is playing back far on return position even on 2nd serve. Commies today indicated what I like to call the deep bunt has been replace with a more Federesque slice (my term). Its kind if a subtle change to my eyes, but seems like Thiem is in a better position to deal with the server's response. I'd thought his bunt first return highly effective except against the biggest servers. Thiem's solution against Anderson on Louis Armstrong in 2018 was to return from the warning track and by hook or crook get something deep in play and try to survive Anderson's attempts to end the point quickly (worked well). Return is a big thing so clawing out another 1% return points won is something.... Amazingly Beijing was a robust 44.2% return points won and only 66.7% serve points won. Indian Wells was only 37.1% return points won with dominant serve numbers (71.8%). (That serve with last week's return would be nearly unstoppable like Mad Lad.) So any way the return numbers were tremendous in Beijing and the Busta match are back to serve laden like IW, but literally just one match.
3fees
G.O.A.T.
Thursday, Oktoberfest 10, 2019-Day VI
Court 1 Starting 12:30 pm - 9:30 pm PST
(3)Medvedev v (Q)Pospisal H2H 0-0
Not Before 2 pm - 2 am PST
(1)Djokovic v (16)Isner H2H 9-2
Not before 6:30 pm 3:30 am
(13)Goffin v (2)Federer H2H 1-9
Followed by
(5)Zverev v Rublev H2H 2-0
My Picks : Medvedev, Djokovic, Federer, Zverev
Cheers
3Fees
Court 1 Starting 12:30 pm - 9:30 pm PST
(3)Medvedev v (Q)Pospisal H2H 0-0
Not Before 2 pm - 2 am PST
(1)Djokovic v (16)Isner H2H 9-2
Not before 6:30 pm 3:30 am
(13)Goffin v (2)Federer H2H 1-9
Followed by
(5)Zverev v Rublev H2H 2-0
My Picks : Medvedev, Djokovic, Federer, Zverev
Cheers
3Fees
Meles
Bionic Poster
Agut would be the safer choice, Berrettini makes Fabio look like a gun, safety on, and locked in its safe. Thiem will not want to deal with a hot serving Matteo.
I was unaware of the great differences and just assumed Beijing was in line with Shanghai. I heard one of the commies mentioning today that Shanghai this year was between medium/fast and fast.
2016 was the first year that Paris and London were made markedly fasterer. If they are mentioning fast I suspect the early readings for the week are in the low 45s which is just marginally faster than all the years past at Shanghai.
Here is the tale in London:
I'd assume this number for 2016 London is the more correct and the one in the previous graphic might have been made for 2016 World Tour Finals and was the number from early in the event. Anyway, one can see the dramatic change in pace in 2016 from the historic norm.
Shanghai has always been fast and here are the numbers from this site (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...RfMnLhfEUnsQKa7aQNIyaPVnLI/edit#gid=753139153):
2015 43.8
2016 44.4
2017 42.9
2018 40.2
For the record from this site Montreal and Cincinnati were their fastest CPI's ever (so in recent times) at 42.8 and 37.4 respectively. Both a massive leap from 2018 where like the US Open they appear to have been quite slow. I don't trust any of this data fully. 45.5 would not be a crime against nature, but still typical of the trend to prop up the old players by making the courts faster. Its just a joke really.
A more effective way to measure is to see how the whole field does on serve and return. This is better because it is more likely to account for all factors and temperature is a monstrous one. I'm due to look into whether I can conjure up tournament numbers from the usual sources. (I'm not interested in adding it all up myself I can tell you that, but ultimate tennis and tennis abstract have the data, just unsure if they have the reporting available to the general public.)
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guitarra
Professional
I agree with the picks except Rublev - he looks really hot so the upset is on the cards.Thursday, Oktoberfest 10, 2019-Day VI
Court 1 Starting 12:30 pm - 9:30 pm PST
(3)Medvedev v (Q)Pospisal H2H 0-0
Not Before 2 pm - 2 am PST
(1)Djokovic v (16)Isner H2H 9-2
Not before 6:30 pm 3:30 am
(13)Goffin v (2)Federer H2H 1-9
Followed by
(5)Zverev v Rublev H2H 2-0
My Picks : Medvedev, Djokovic, Federer, Zverev
Cheers
3Fees
yokied
Hall of Fame
Disagree. We need wild variation in court speeds throughout the year. Keep the slow-medium HC and clay unchanged but if Wimbledon has to be green clay, then we need fast HCs action somewhere too. I honestly think court speed homogeneity is one of the reasons why the kids lack the skills and belief to take down the big 3. It's got to be reversed some time so this time of year is probably the most important for them in terms of skill and ranking point acquisition.
The servebots will always be around, and as the big 3 age that's what they're evolving into anyway. Realistically the number of players who threaten the big 3 in the years before they hit their retirement season will be very few, so I'm not getting too excited about WTF. It might throw up some content but we know it'll end up being won by Fedovicvedev. The Asian schwing is interesting to see the battle for the rest of the spots in the rankings below them, say 5 to 30. Once you take out the dangerous floaters, lostgen and other unremarkable players over 25, there's about a dozen interesting young prospects in the top 30 that should end up populating the top 10 in a few years' time.
Meles
Bionic Poster
What about the other 4 matches cherry picker.Thursday, Oktoberfest 10, 2019-Day VI
Court 1 Starting 12:30 pm - 9:30 pm PST
(3)Medvedev v (Q)Pospisal H2H 0-0
Not Before 2 pm - 2 am PST
(1)Djokovic v (16)Isner H2H 9-2
Not before 6:30 pm 3:30 am
(13)Goffin v (2)Federer H2H 1-9
Followed by
(5)Zverev v Rublev H2H 2-0
My Picks : Medvedev, Djokovic, Federer, Zverev
Cheers
3Fees
Meles
Bionic Poster
Well your homog court thing is actually not really the problem; its Poly strings and the consistency with which topspin works out with all the counteracting forces on all the surfaces. Bottom line heavier topspin gets through the court about the same on all the various surfaces as far as the time it takes to get through the court. Its the consistent Borg like spin levels since Poly took hold of the whole tour (2004) that have caused this consistency of play.
They are not making Wimbledon slower deliberately. They are making it play better with a more consistent bounce. Firmer courts allow more consistent (and higher) bounces. Yeah its slower, but its better than the garbage surface at Newport. You are arguing for worse tennis.
The thing that gets me is there is no variation right now. The tournaments and ATP have made everything faster this year (save Wimbledon which was awesome at the end) and its just a joke. That is not variation; its called fixing things.
I'm not going to fix my views in stone because with the speed up this year the true servebots seem to be a dying breed.
If this continues then I'm all for it because Isner, Anderson, Raonic, Cilic, Querrey, and the like are enemy number one to the game of tennis. If this continues I may agree with the speed up even if it helps the Big 3 at the expense of the younger players. Zverev is the closet thing to a servebot among the top Next Gen so his demise this year might not be so short lived. Frankly Zverev's brand of tennis was heading towards the ulitmate servebot with better skills elsewhere. Such a domination would be a bit ugly for the game. Any legit means to stop that kind of tennis is great. Still I wish Zverev would realize his potential.
Meles
Bionic Poster
I think your attitude on WTF is rather ridiculous. Big 3 all having fine year, that makes it better than just about any previous year right there. Medvedev is better than Murray, so that is better. Thiem and Tsitsipas are likely to be in superlative form. Thiem has two hard courts win this year at the biggest Masters 1000 and the biggest 500. He's better than ever before at the very least. Tsitsipas is the real deal and a vast improvement to the likes of any six ranked or lower player in the history of WTF. If Zverev gets in he'd be a strong 7 or 8. Ditto Khachanov. Berrettini is super clutch.
Our worst case scenario is RBA right now plus maybe Goffin. RBA has a great record against Djoko on hard courts so he's 50/50 as a real asset depending on his group. And Goffin, well in 2017 he beat Fed and Nadal to make the final so hard to complain about his resurgence.
I've got it! You're a secret Bendych lover and pine for his first class pigeon game.
Ferrer quite boring for that matter as well.And call me crazy, but the Big 3 have not won WTF the last three years so not sure how you find it all boring.
yokied
Hall of Fame
I think your attitude on WTF is rather ridiculous. Big 3 all having fine year, that makes it better than just about any previous year right there. Medvedev is better than Murray, so that is better. Thiem and Tsitsipas are likely to be in superlative form. Thiem has two hard courts win this year at the biggest Masters 1000 and the biggest 500. He's better than ever before at the very least. Tsitsipas is the real deal and a vast improvement to the likes of any six ranked or lower player in the history of WTF. If Zverev gets in he'd be a strong 7 or 8. Ditto Khachanov. Berrettini is super clutch.
Our worst case scenario is RBA right now plus maybe Goffin. RBA has a great record against Djoko on hard courts so he's 50/50 as a real asset depending on his group. And Goffin, well in 2017 he beat Fed and Nadal to make the final so hard to complain about his resurgence.
I've got it! You're a secret Bendych lover and pine for his first class pigeon game.
And call me crazy, but the Big 3 have not won WTF the last three years so not sure how you find it all boring.
Careful, I just said I'm not getting too excited about WTF, so Shirley I can't be any more ridiculous than normal. Thiem is peaking too early and cannot hold his peak for long. I think he's been on the burgers and has lost a step, plus he has psychological damage on the biggest stages and has been showing a lot of that in his on court frustration lately. Another false dawn there to be exposed all too soon unfortunately. Massu might do this and might do that but Thiem looks more and more like Stan by the day. He will need to go off into the wilderness and do a full rebuild before threatening again at 28+. Fed basically threw IW IMHO so don't cling too hard to that one either.
Tsits also has been damaged this year and might turn it around soon but it seems unlikely. He might benefit from a bit of time off to review the Sheet's success and prepare to make a real statement at AO20. Stick a fork in some of that extra muscle he's put on because ZED IS DONE.
I think the Nadal will withdraw, maybe opening up another slot. There is no point to Coffin at all, so hopefully one of the Hatchetjob-Berretta connections make it in. RBA-Djoko should produce some fine 40+ shot CC BH drills.
Re court speeds, I don't think it's worse tennis if the players are encouraged to go for more, earlier. The stats will show greater inconsistency but I don't think longer rallies necessarily achieve more, particularly over a season that already has plenty of events and points dedicated to longer rallies.
Of course Ferrer is boring. That's the point. If you want to be around the kings, you either kill 'em or serve. Med might eventually kill them but right now he is serving as a gatekeeper and we need these guys to set the standard for the rest. For a 5'9 smoker to be doing that for the length of time he did was seriously impressive IMHO, but yeah, you got me figured, so here's a few slices of the Berd.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Its a bit gray looking at this... I'll comment on the bolded players in particular who are your LostGen that leave your bored.
Mad Lad has been the number one player since Wimbledon and his lead over Nadal should widen considerably:
1 Daniil Medvedev 23 3350
2 Rafael Nadal 33 3000
3 Andrey Rublev 21 795
4 David Goffin 28 790 - not a slam threat, but hardly a boring player
5 Matteo Berrettini 23 775
6 Gael Monfils 33 775 - has the skills, but injury may hold him back from top of the game
7 Grigor Dimitrov 28 760 - remarkable that Grigor has been unremarkable, his post US Open scares me
8 Diego Schwartzman 27 745
9 Nikoloz Basilashvili 27 735 (500 in Hamburg again)
10 Albert Ramos-Vinolas 31 664 - last gasp, but nice to see something after some good clay play 2 years ago
11 Nick Kyrgios 24 645
12 Richard Gasquet 33 570
13 Alexander Zverev 22 550
14 Alex de Minaur 20 550
15 Novak Djokovic 32 540 - same issue as Thiem I suspect, missing at least 200 points
16 Dominic Thiem 26 530 - the site I got this is not thrilling me because Thiem has a 250 and 500 in the bag so this is at least 200 points off
17 Pablo Carreno Busta 28 507 - perhaps not WTF material, but a nice, nice top 20 player.
18 John Isner 34 475 - might have chopped the 250 from Newport on Big John
19 Karen Khachanov 23 460
20 Roger Federer 38 450
Looking at your LostGen and other type older pigeons, I'd say Isner and Dimitrov would be the ones that would not surprise me entirely if they were relevant in 2020. PCB and Goffin look great right now as well. Murray to my eyes looks on track for the top ten maybe even higher in 2020. Goffin has been a bit of a bore because he looks like he might return to WTF, but ultimately I'd agree with your boredom at the thought of Goffin holding back the big 3.
If Berrettini is the modern servebot well I'm all in because his game is exciting to say the least. On the Italian front it will be interesting if Fognini can mount a WTF charge and he's been held back by some minor leg injury.
I'm rather enjoying these players that appear to bore you. And Beijing's final 4 produce three great matches on the weekend. Zverev v Tsitsipas, Thiem v Khachanov, and Tsitsipas v Thiem. 2017 had a comparable group. 2005 & 2008 had a good prospective SF lineups as well, but as for tennis quality 2019 is Beijing's best final 4 by a wide margin. All of the contestants in 2019 have had had Recent Elos of 5 or higher in the last year and those not near their peak appear to quickly come into form in Beijing. (All 4 in round of 16 in Shanghai).
Meles
Bionic Poster
LOL. On the Bendy love real or imagined.
As you know I follow Thiem quite closely. I think Shanghai is the worst possible surface for him so what he is doing here and in Beijing is very, very good stuff. I think Massu will prevent Thiem from one of his mental funks and I think you have a loose feel for where a good coach can help him in this regard. Remember, for Thiem points off clay are a big bonus and he is on the verge of what would be a rampage for him.
I won't debate you on Zed, but if too much muscle is the case they could probably easily shave a few pounds off him. He's determined to make WTF and that makes him grabbing onto whatever he can get a hold of like a drowning person actually pretty entertaining and dramatic.
I will debate you on Tsitsipas, both he and Zverev have overplayed this year. Zverev just has a whole lot of other baggage. Tsitsipas is very much alive and kicking based on the play I've seen. Hurkacz may finesse him today, but I find the best part of the Greek Connection very, very intriguing. He also returned Zverev extremely well. Based on how he delivered in Milan last year, I would not rule him out from winning WTF.
Just to be clear on Med, even if he does not win a slam next year, he will be extremely hard to stop from getting to year end #1 since he will play a full schedule unlike the Big 3. Given his points haul the 2nd half of the year, Nadal may be the only player ahead of him post Wimbledon in the rankings.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Really? You are stalking Davy no? hehe
What did they say about the Khach serve and in what language? Oh and please take up more stalking.
Shangri La
Hall of Fame
Really? You are stalking Davy no? hehe
What did they say about the Khach serve and in what language? Oh and please take up more stalking.
Lol. It was in English (so I could actually understand a bit
). It was something like "... but he didnt have a lot of aces or first serve winners". Not sure if it was about Khach or Fritz's serve.Stalking bigger names would be difficult lol. Fans lined up over 100 ft outside Fed's scheduled practice court waiting for hours to see him hit. The organizer publishes practice court schedule everyday.
Not sure if it was broadcast, during the on-court interview quite a few players (Tsitsi, Zverev, Thiem) commented how the court plays a lot faster than Beijing's, and they all needed quite a bit of adjustment.
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megamind
Legend
the like on your post is more a like that you're watching the match too, than a like that the king is in trouble
Meles
Bionic Poster
Keep that Mad Lad going.
megamind
Legend
The little girl who was Djoker's mascot declined to accompany him onto the court despite Djoker delving in his bag for goodies to entice her, but she was having none of it. So Djokovic entered the court on his own.
little kids don't like djokers!
Meles
Bionic Poster
ugh! chokner failed to server into breaker; his mission in life.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Very sensible child, of that there is no doubt.The little girl who was Djoker's mascot declined to accompany him onto the court despite Djoker delving in his bag for goodies to entice her, but she was having none of it. So Djokovic entered the court on his own.
Meles
Bionic Poster
LOL Danevil showed himself still very vulnerable to all court game so Fed in final will be rough for him. Frankly Djokovic good enough with his Fed imitations to probably get the job done with ease based on what I saw.
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
Wow Isner you suck how does a guy with your serve lose 5 games in a row on such a fast surface?
Shangri La
Hall of Fame
Djoko seems to have hurt his right elbow a bit when running down a ball.
junior74
Talk Tennis Guru
Aces: 6-6
Let's get rid of these servebots. Higher nets, slower courts, remove the 2nd serve - anything! Just save us.
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