Tsonga or Murray: Who will win a major in 2012
- Thread starter kaku
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InspectorRacquet
Semi-Pro
I can't see Tsonga making it to the finals of any major period. I see Murray will just fail in the finals as usual. Neither is my vote as long as Nadal and Djokovic come back into form.
SoBad
G.O.A.T.
I don't see either of those two winning a major next year. Either Nadal is going for the Calendar Slam, or the new guns like Dolgopolov, Golubev, Donskoy, etc., are dominating the picture this coming year.
Homeboy Hotel
Hall of Fame
Murray has a better chance than Tsonga to win one in 2012, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tsonga has a bigger chance to beat one of the top seeds 'easier' or 'before' Murray.
Nadal will get beaten by Djokovic at any slam
Djokovic will get beaten by Federer outside of the Australian Open
Murray will get beaten by Nadal at Wimbledon
...so whoever can leak through that.
Nadal will get beaten by Djokovic at any slam
Djokovic will get beaten by Federer outside of the Australian Open
Murray will get beaten by Nadal at Wimbledon
...so whoever can leak through that.
sonicare
Hall of Fame
Tsonga has actually won a set in a slam final. Murray hasn't.
Hood_Man
G.O.A.T.
Murray. He's reached 3 finals, Tsonga's reached 1.
Murray's first might have been a dream run like Tsonga's, but this year in particular I was really impressed with the way he reached the final in Australia. He wasn't playing his best and yet it was good enough to win 6 matches and reach another final.
Tsonga's been playing brilliantly but historically I'd have to favour Murray. 8 times he's reached a semi final or better (all four this year!), Tsonga's done it 3 times.
Murray's first might have been a dream run like Tsonga's, but this year in particular I was really impressed with the way he reached the final in Australia. He wasn't playing his best and yet it was good enough to win 6 matches and reach another final.
Tsonga's been playing brilliantly but historically I'd have to favour Murray. 8 times he's reached a semi final or better (all four this year!), Tsonga's done it 3 times.
ark_28
Legend
Murray has made 3 finals and in majors has been more steady than Tsonga, but with all that said Tsonga is a big match player who beats names, as one poster said Tsonga has beaten all of the top 4 in a major in his career now.
I am a big proponent of his game huge serve and takes big cuts on the ball when he is hot.
Even though career progression suggests Murray would win a major if either, I believe Tsonga is the more likely of the 2 to do it.
I am a big proponent of his game huge serve and takes big cuts on the ball when he is hot.
Even though career progression suggests Murray would win a major if either, I believe Tsonga is the more likely of the 2 to do it.
Castiel
Rookie
last time Tsonga made a really deep run in a slam was 2008.
I really like his game but it's pretty unstable.
Murray however has much more experience, reaching 3 slam finals, 2 of them in Australia and he definetly has the game, so yeah, I think he has a shot to win Australia or Us Open though it really depends a lot on the form of Djokovic, dammit its going to be a very thrilling year!
I really like his game but it's pretty unstable.
Murray however has much more experience, reaching 3 slam finals, 2 of them in Australia and he definetly has the game, so yeah, I think he has a shot to win Australia or Us Open though it really depends a lot on the form of Djokovic, dammit its going to be a very thrilling year!
TheFifthSet
Legend
Haha zing!!
PimpMyGame
Hall of Fame
This is a good point. Reaching all four slam semis in one year is extremely consistent and if he continues to do that at slams, as well as pick up other championships then it will be a matter of time.
Does anyone know the last player to reach all 4 GS semis in a year but win nothing? Could be an interesting stat.
ark_28
Legend
From memory I think that every other player to achieve it is a multi slam winner!
With that being said Murray's consitency is impressive, but he needs to be more aggreessive if he gets to another major final if he is to have any chance Australia this year it felt like he was playing not to lose rather than to go out there and take charge.
Consistency is good but doesnt ensure you win majors you have to go out there and make it happen.
boredone3456
G.O.A.T.
I honestly don't think either will win a major next year but I think of the 2 of them Tsonga is the more likely candidate to do it next year. I think he can be more explosive against the likes of Fed, Nadal and Novak then Murray can, so I'd say he is a little more likely to do it....but not by much.
batz
G.O.A.T.
Tony Roche
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Sentinel
Bionic Poster
That was against Joker 1.0, so sorry, not admissible
Terre Battu
Rookie
Possibly Tsonga because he gambles. Murray in the other hand, mopes.
You think playing Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal back to back to win Wimbledon was his best chance? 2008 Australian was way better, as was the 2010 Australian. If he'd beaten Federer he would've faced a deer-in-headlights Murray in the final.
I'm doubtful he'll win a major, but I'd love to see him do some damage to the top dogs.
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
He is the only player to beat Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Murray in slam matches. So he's already been there and done that.
Andres
G.O.A.T.
He made the Wimbledon SFs 6 months ago. IMO, that's a deep run. Of course, it could be a little deeper.
jones101
Hall of Fame
Really? I thought he was playing the best tennis of the tournament (besdies Novak) this year.
I agree with the rest though pretty much, but I do wonder how Murray with conduct himself in his next GS final.
C
celoft
Guest
Nevermind the vote, neither is the most likely.
Djokovic: AO and USO
Federer: Wimbledon
Nadal: FO
Djokovic: AO and USO
Federer: Wimbledon
Nadal: FO
All-rounder
Legend
batz
G.O.A.T.
So what.
Does winning a set and losing make it any less of a loss? How many slams would Murray have if he'd won 2 sets in each of his slam finals?
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Mainad
Bionic Poster
My friendly advice to you would be never ever to take up gambling!!! :shock::wink:
boredone3456
G.O.A.T.
Actually winning a set in the Final means you at least got close to winning the match instead of getting swept aside in straights.
A loss is a loss, but if he had won a set in any of his major finals he might actually be winning the poll right now. He has looked pretty terrible in all of the Major finals he has played so far, which is why so many people think Tsonga is more likely to win one in 2012 then him, or that neither will. Despite being a fixture in the top 4, winning several masters, and being called the best player to not have a major on tour right now in some eyes, he can't even win a set when he gets to a final. It pretty much says right now to win a major he would likely need Federer, Nadal and Novak to all lose before he has to play them. Since the odds of that are slim, and given his history in major finals, whether his technical ability is better then Tsongas or not I'd still give Tsonga way better odds because he seems to be able to step up when he makes it to the big moment, instead of getting there consistently then flopping.
batz
G.O.A.T.
PMSL - yeah - because this poll matters, right?
He had set point in the AO 2010 final. If he had taken that point and gone on to lose the match his chances of winning a slam today would be exactly the same as if he hadn't taken the set.
It's just another stick that bashers use - that and playing down his achievements (by using terms like 'several' when the word they are looking for is 'eight') and implying that there might be some doubt that he isn't the best player not to win a slam in the open era.
You might give Tsonga way better odds but the folk that do it for a living make him as high as 30/1 for the AO - Murray is 7/1 at best. I guess that might be something to do with Murray having made 300 percent more slam finals than Tsonga despite being younger.
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batz
G.O.A.T.
History says you're wrong; no man in the open era who has made 3 slam finals has finished their career slamless - but we'll see what happens.
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boredone3456
G.O.A.T.
If the poll had Murray winning by a landslide I have a funny feeling you would say it matters quite a bit.
Point is, to date, Murray has been pretty handily dispatched in every Major final he has played. He got straight setted in all of them. When he gets to a major final, he doesn't seem all that capable right now of taking advantage of the moment, in spite of all of his Masters Shields and his being ranked in the top 4 for quite a while now. Safina made 3 slam finals on the WTA and people still considered her a total joke and not all to likely to ever win a major either. Just because he has been to 3 major finals doesn't mean he is anymore likely to win one anytime soon then Tsonga is especially given who the other people in the top 3 are.
Right now, for Murray to win a major, and probably Tsonga to, Nadal, Novak and Fed would all need to get knocked out early by other people, as I highly doubt Tsonga or Murray could beat 2 of them back to back to win a major right now.
I didn't say either one was going to win a slam, but if one of them is, it's going to be Murray. His hand-eye coordination is amazing. I think he's had a coaching team of yes-men for too long, didn't like Gilbert telling him what to do, maybe he'll listen to Lendl, the downside being Lendl isn't as much of a coach.
batz
G.O.A.T.
Erm, no. For the record - no poll on this or any other tennis messageboard matters. Ever.
We're not talking about the WTA, we're talking about the ATP - Safina is a complete irrelevance.
Murray has beaten Nadal in slams. He has played Novak once in slams and Roger twice and lost - if you think those sample of 1 and 2 respectively are an absolute guarantee that he cannot beat Novak or Roger if they meet in a slam in future (despite having beaten both in other matches on more than one occasion) then you probably don't understand the unpredictable nature of sport.
No man who has made 3 slam finals has ended his career slamless. No man who has made the semis of all 4 slams in a single season has ended his career slamless. These are the facts. Only time will tell if Murray will be the first man to 'break' those records - but the portents look good for him.
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Smasher08
Legend
There's always a first time for everything. . . .
batz
G.O.A.T.
Agreed - I said as much in post.
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