What is the percentage probability of Djokovic winning 4 slams in row?
- Thread starter 5555
- Start date
5555
Hall of Fame
I said 4 in a row. I did not mention CYGS.
aphex
Banned
No, but you mentioned Laver, who is the last man to win the CYGS, not merely the 4 in a row...but I digress
5555
Hall of Fame
I mentioned Laver, but I did not mention CYGS. I said "Can he become the first man since Rod Laver to win four consecutive slams in a row?".
aphex
Banned
Good for you. It's just that Laver won the CYGS, not merely 4 in a row.
DragonBlaze
Hall of Fame
Honestly, pretty good considering AO is his best surface and he seems to have Nadal's number on clay as of now.
5555
Hall of Fame
My question was not "Can he become the first man since Rod Laver to win the CYGS?". My question was "Can he become the first man since Rod Laver to win four consecutive slams in a row?"
aphex
Banned
I understand. It's just that it is a pretty useless question when you include Laver in it at all.
It is akin to asking "Can Nole become the first man since Federer to win 3 AOs?"
While technically valid, it is pointless since Federer has achieved more in that regard (4 AOs).
The same with Laver. 4 in a row is an achievement which is contained within the CYGS which is a superior achievement.
The same way that 3 AOs is an achievement which is contained within 4 AOs which is, also, a superior achievement.
Thus, we can conclude that your question in it's current form is useless.
Maybe you would like to reformulate it?
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5555
Hall of Fame
Which achievement is superior is irrelevant for this discussion. Thus, we can conclude that your argumentation is useless.
Absolutely not.
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daddy
Legend
Honestly being a Serb and Novak fan and everything, following him on tour since I dont know when I can tell you that imo if he was to take a shot at calendar GS that would be a miracle.
First of all form can vary and being in form and having lots of confidence in your game and shotmaking is one thing but defeating everyone two years in a row is something I dont think he is capable of doing. In fact I think he is not capable of maintaining last years form thru this season, let alone go another level up.
Another point of discussion can be made on is he phisically capable of getting thru one season without being injured ... \
So my answer is 0%.
Akcija
First of all form can vary and being in form and having lots of confidence in your game and shotmaking is one thing but defeating everyone two years in a row is something I dont think he is capable of doing. In fact I think he is not capable of maintaining last years form thru this season, let alone go another level up.
Another point of discussion can be made on is he phisically capable of getting thru one season without being injured ... \
So my answer is 0%.
Akcija
kaleidoskope
Professional
jackson vile
G.O.A.T.
At this rate it looks very likely, but only time will tell. Usually Federer does great at the beginning and end of the season. Nadal usually does best in the middle of the season. How things are looking now I don't see why Novak won't take AO, Nadal may try to contest but at this rate I am not even sure he will make it to the finals.
One more thought, the next year that Novak was supposed to defend his AO title all of the pressure really got to him and he completely fell apart.
One more thought, the next year that Novak was supposed to defend his AO title all of the pressure really got to him and he completely fell apart.
kiki
Banned
There is only one GS: 4 IN THE SAME YEAR.
4 in a row is great but not even close to a GRAN SLAM
Will you ever get that??????????????
daddy
Legend
Then Ill rearange my reply too. Yeah he has a good shot at AO imo, and remains to be seen what will happen with Rafa once the clay season starts. I am still pretty pissed off that Jok had to meed Fed in the RG semis, I think that is the ONLY reason why he missed the calendar slam last year.
Akcija
But the difference is all 4 slams are played on 3 surfaces. It's much toughter than only dealing with 2.
Do players slide on hc like they do on clay? No.
Do clay and grass have true bounce like hc? No.
I rest my case.
to be honest i dont really see much of a difference anymore for players like monfils or djokovic sliding on clay or on HC expect for the shoes wearing out sooner on HC lol
and no one said they were the exact same. theyre obviously not. but you cant argue with the differences having gotten alot smaller over the last decade.
passive_aggressive
Banned
Why is a superior accomplishment to collect 4 grand slams the same year vs collecting USO 2012, AO 2013, FO 2013 and W 2013?
Clarky21
Banned
I agree,and Norman WAS sliding all over the grass at Wimby last year. It was like he was sliding around on hardcourts out there.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
He has a pretty good chance that's for sure, who the hell is gonna beat him before the semi's at any slam?
jones101
Hall of Fame
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aceX
Hall of Fame
My probabilities:
Australian Open:
- 30% Federer
- 25% Djokovic
- 20% Nadal
- 15% Murray
- 10% Other
French Open:
- 40% Nadal
- 20% Djokovic
- 20% Federer
- 5% Murray
- 15% Other
So the probability of Djokovic winning them both is 0.25*0.2 = 0.05.
So, 5%. But I would probably change my French Open probabilities depending on what happens at the Australian open.
Australian Open:
- 30% Federer
- 25% Djokovic
- 20% Nadal
- 15% Murray
- 10% Other
French Open:
- 40% Nadal
- 20% Djokovic
- 20% Federer
- 5% Murray
- 15% Other
So the probability of Djokovic winning them both is 0.25*0.2 = 0.05.
So, 5%. But I would probably change my French Open probabilities depending on what happens at the Australian open.
He can do it, seriously.
Today winning four consecutive GS is easier than in other eras (where there were huge differences in court speed and bounce height, and there were different styles of play) but still it is something very very difficult.
Federer was very close (one match away) in two different ocassions (RolandGarros Finals of 2006 and 2007 ), Nadal was close and who knows what would have happened had he not injured his leg last year in the QF against Ferrer.
So Djokovic may do it. If he wins the Australian Open something tells me he will do it in Paris. That is how high I regard him.
Today winning four consecutive GS is easier than in other eras (where there were huge differences in court speed and bounce height, and there were different styles of play) but still it is something very very difficult.
Federer was very close (one match away) in two different ocassions (RolandGarros Finals of 2006 and 2007 ), Nadal was close and who knows what would have happened had he not injured his leg last year in the QF against Ferrer.
So Djokovic may do it. If he wins the Australian Open something tells me he will do it in Paris. That is how high I regard him.
Fedalfan
Semi-Pro
Not saying that he can't do it. But you make sound "just two" like he's already got 12 under his belt and winning slams is an everyday affair for him. Mind you, we're not talking about Roger. Nole has yet to prove he's good enough to have 2011-like performance for a couple of years running.
Nobody is disputing this.
abmk
Bionic Poster
Actually if Djoker does do it, it will be twice as good as Laver's 69 and about 10 times as good as Laver's 62 since he's done it on 3 surfaces as opposed to Laver's 2 and he did it against a full field ( unlike Laver in 62 ) .. Deal with it :twisted:
Does anyone agree that it might be toughest for Novak if he would be meeting Murray in the semis (not easy for him, plus no added pressure for Murray because of Slamfinalfever) and then Federer (who would probably have to beat Nadal which is unlikely, but Nadal could lose to Tsonga, Ferrer or Del Potro in a Quarterfinal), who is really tougher for Novak than Rafa is.
nadalwon2012
Banned
The only man ever to win 3 slams on 3 different surfaces in a calendar year is Nadal. Nadal has proven he can adapt and win on each slam surface in a short space of time. Nadal is the master of adapting from clay to grass.
5555
Hall of Fame
Pay attention to this
In 1982 the International Tennis Federation (ITF) redefined the Grand Slam as four consecutive victories that could span two calendar years. http://www.itftennis.com/shared/medialibrary/pdf/original/IO_46448_original.PDF
So, if Djokovic wins AO and FO, he will accomplish Grand Slam.
In 1982 the International Tennis Federation (ITF) redefined the Grand Slam as four consecutive victories that could span two calendar years. http://www.itftennis.com/shared/medialibrary/pdf/original/IO_46448_original.PDF
So, if Djokovic wins AO and FO, he will accomplish Grand Slam.
nadalwon2012
Banned
Yep. 4 in a row is The Grand Slam (or The Rafa Slam, The Serena Slam etc.).
And 4 in a calendar year is The Calendar Year Grand Slam.
Or the Roger Slam. (just to add, since that was on the cards way earlier than the Rafa Slam.) Serena actually pulled it off, right?
D
Deleted member 77403
Guest
If Novak gets the Novak slam, but also beat Nadal in the next two finals. Would that also mean that we have had the Rafa Slam as well? Or the Rafa Slammed?
C
celoft
Guest
Very low.
0%-10%
0%-10%
niff
Legend
I know I'll be using this phrase at least one hundred times in conversation, at least.
C
celoft
Guest
LOL...............
Interesting. What page is this except from? I can't find it.
Nonetheless, on page 54 it states: "Players who hold all four [majors] at the same time achieve the 'Grand Slam'".
N
NadalAgassi
Guest
This would be true if it were the Calendar Slam (all 4 in one year). Since it wouldnt be though, while it still would be very impressive, Laver's 69 slam would stand higher since it is the true Grand Slam which always is superior to a Non Calendar Slam.
Anyway on topic I say about 55% chance. He is the heavy favorite for the Australian Open, and the favorite for the French Open too given his ownage of Nadal in H2H encounters on clay last year and the unlikelihood of Federer or someone else beating him before the final again this year there.
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