#1 ranking scenarios after IW and Miami

J

JMR

Hall of Fame
fedfan39 said:
The most extreme scenario is Nadal playing and reaching finals at both. Fed would need to make finals both times and beat Nadal. That will give Fed +800 over him. Subtract 710, and Fed would be ahead by a mere 90 points at the end of Miami.
...

I don't think Nadal comes close to replicating his clay season, so Fed should take over #1 in May sometime again even if he just sits home and sips glasses of wine.
Click to expand...

We could be treated to the bizarre scenario this season of the No. 1 ranking being swapped back and forth, with the guy who is not playing at the time backing into the honor. If Federer has a mediocre IW/Miami combo, even an injured, idle Nadal could assume the lead. And as you point out, Federer could retake the top spot as a spectator if Nadal fails to defend most of last year's clay points.

At least Federer finally grabbed No. 1 by actually winning Rotterdam. It would have been much less satisfying to achieve "oldest No. 1 ever" status simply because his rival kept pulling out of events.
 
EloQuent

EloQuent

Legend
JMR said:
We could be treated to the bizarre scenario this season of the No. 1 ranking being swapped back and forth, with the guy who is not playing at the time backing into the honor. If Federer has a mediocre IW/Miami combo, even an injured, idle Nadal could assume the lead. And as you point out, Federer could retake the top spot as a spectator if Nadal fails to defend most of last year's clay points.

At least Federer finally grabbed No. 1 by actually winning Rotterdam. It would have been much less satisfying to achieve "oldest No. 1 ever" status simply because his rival kept pulling out of events.
Click to expand...
didn't Rafa get #1 last year while not playing Cincy?
 
Steve0904

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
underground said:
Simply speaking, Fed retains #1 for another 2 weeks if he wins IW.
Click to expand...

Simply speaking yes, but in all likelihood Federer would be #1 until basically grass season if he won IW again. Barring a really early loss in Miami and Nadal defending his points or winning, he'll probably hold it until at least Halle and maybe Wimbledon in that scenario, unless Nadal completely sweeps the clay i.e wins Rome.
 
Steve0904

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
fedfan39 said:
That's true. That's why the *to be sure part*.

The most extreme scenario is Nadal playing and reaching finals at both. Fed would need to make finals both times and beat Nadal. That will give Fed +800 over him. Subtract 710, and Fed would be ahead by a mere 90 points at the end of Miami.

Unbelievable, but that's what the math says. Nadal had too dominant a clay season last year.

It's possible Nadal doesn't come close to this though, so Fed's expectations would be lowered. If he wins IW, I am more or less convinced he will just skip Miami. I can't see anyone beating Fed at IW right now.

I don't think Nadal comes close to replicating his clay season, so Fed should take over #1 in May sometime again even if he just sits home and sips glasses of wine.
Click to expand...

Just curious, but why don't you think he'll replicate his clay season? Personally, I could see it happening pretty easily. The only thing I don't see happening is a complete sweep since it'll tax him too much before RG and he won't want that, but a second year running of Nadal winning two masters and RG on the clay has a better than decent chance of happening IMO. Who's going to beat him? Thiem? LOL. The only thing that might stop Nadal on clay is injury, but he almost always finds a way to be healthy on clay.
 
T

timnz

Legend
I think it likely that Nadal will be number 1 at the end of Indian Wells. But that wasn't the point for Federer - Federer just wanted to be number 1 one more time and get the oldest number 1 record - and he has achieved that already. If he loses number 1 to Nadal I don't think he will be too worried about it (though I am sure he would like to get YE #1).
 
underground

underground

G.O.A.T.
timnz said:
I think it likely that Nadal will be number 1 at the end of Indian Wells. But that wasn't the point for Federer - Federer just wanted to be number 1 one more time and get the oldest number 1 record - and he has achieved that already. If he loses number 1 to Nadal I don't think he will be too worried about it (though I am sure he would like to get YE #1).
Click to expand...

Fed has a much better shot at YE#1 this time round IMO. He’s ahead of Rafa in the race by more than 2K points, this time last year Rafa was only about 500 behind.
 
falstaff78

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
EloQuent said:
@abmk is this better?
l7QRKt0.png
Click to expand...

This is excellent. I would make a quick request if you don't mind:

How about a colour code .Blue for the cells where fedr ends up ahead and red for nadl. That way it's easier to read.
 
EloQuent

EloQuent

Legend
falstaff78 said:
This is excellent. I would make a quick request if you don't mind:

How about a colour code .Blue for the cells where fedr ends up ahead and red for nadl. That way it's easier to read.
Click to expand...
I didn't save the file, but maybe next time I'll do a more user friendly version.
 
N

NGM

Hall of Fame
It’s March and Nadal has exactly 360 points right now while Fed has 2500 points.

If Nadal withdraws from IW he will drop even further back.
 
abmk

abmk

Bionic Poster
Steve0904 said:
Just curious, but why don't you think he'll replicate his clay season? Personally, I could see it happening pretty easily. The only thing I don't see happening is a complete sweep since it'll tax him too much before RG and he won't want that, but a second year running of Nadal winning two masters and RG on the clay has a better than decent chance of happening IMO. Who's going to beat him? Thiem? LOL. The only thing that might stop Nadal on clay is injury, but he almost always finds a way to be healthy on clay.
Click to expand...

he's an year older now than in 17. Won "only" one CC masters in 14, 16, didn't win any in 15.
in a Bo3, easier to upset him in comparision to in Bo5.
 
Steve0904

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
abmk said:
he's an year older now than in 17. Won "only" one CC masters in 14, 16, didn't win any in 15.
in a Bo3, easier to upset him in comparision to in Bo5.
Click to expand...

All pretty decent reasons why he won't do it again. Safe to say I wouldn't bet on it however. Especially not when his best competition on clay looks like it'll probably be Thiem.
 
FHtennisman

FHtennisman

Professional
abmk said:
he's an year older now than in 17. Won "only" one CC masters in 14, 16, didn't win any in 15.
in a Bo3, easier to upset him in comparision to in Bo5.
Click to expand...

How many RGs did Nadal win between 2014 and 2016?

It is easier to upset Nadal when he's not playing well or isn't healthy on the clay but when he's playing somewhat up to form then he usually wins a couple of clay masters along with RG.
 
EloQuent

EloQuent

Legend
EloQuent said:
Okay, I think I got it right now. Here are your scenarios
3j4xuDp.png
.
Click to expand...
OK we can freeze Nadal at 8770.

Fedr needs one of the following:
* W in either, any other result in the other.
* SF+SF
* F+ QF

And then once we hit the clay i'm betting Nadal drops at least some of his points, leaving Fedr as #1 until Wimbledon. Nice stretch.
 
tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
tennisaddict said:
Just win the sunshine double and lock the YE No 1 in March
Click to expand...
As crazy as this sounds if Federer can win both tournaments I don't think anyone can surpass him this year. Nadal is already like 2000 points behind compared to 2017, Fed is already ahead, could even play 1 or 2 tournaments on clay, Nadal's health is a huge question mark now, Murray/Djokovic won't do anything until May or June or at least and the rest of the tour doesn't matter for the YE#1 ranking. Fed just needs to keep scheduling well and maintain good health.
 
underground

underground

G.O.A.T.
Fed needs 710 points in the sunshine double to keep the #1 ranking after Miami. A title, two SFs, or 1 final and 1 QF are all sufficient.
 
C

ChrisRF

Legend
So if Federer wins Indian Wells, he is #1 at least until Rome, because that is the first chance for Nadal to gain points again.
 
Sudacafan

Sudacafan

Bionic Poster
EloQuent said:
OK we can freeze Nadal at 8770.

Fedr needs one of the following:
* W in either, any other result in the other.
* SF+SF
* F+ QF

And then once we hit the clay i'm betting Nadal drops at least some of his points, leaving Fedr as #1 until Wimbledon. Nice stretch.
Click to expand...
= Lotta weeks #1
 
metsman

metsman

G.O.A.T.
Just win IW and call it a wrap. Let the mugs battle it out in the swamp. No way Nadal makes up any points during clay season defending close to 5000 points or whatever. Fed could lose some during grass but should make it back up during US hard courts if he's healthy. If Nadal isn't fully healthy for clay and drops a couple thousand points there's a decent chance Fed could spend the whole year at #1 if he's healthy.
 
Sudacafan

Sudacafan

Bionic Poster
Wait a minute.
Nobody realized that if Federer does not win IW, Nadal gets back the #1 ranking at the end of that tournament, even having pulled out?
 
Plamen1234

Plamen1234

Hall of Fame
Sudacafan said:
Wait a minute.
Nobody realized that if Federer does not win IW, Nadal gets back the #1 ranking at the end of that tournament, even having pulled out?
Click to expand...

Nope.Federer reaching final is enough to have the Top spot.From Miami and Indian Wells Federer needs to have 720 points to stay on the Top so 2 semi finals will be enough.If Federer reaches Semi final in IW he will lose 640 points .The difference between Nadal and Federer is 600 now but with the 90 included it become 690 so Fed will still lead by 50 points before Miami
 
Sudacafan

Sudacafan

Bionic Poster
Plamen1234 said:
Nope.Federer reaching final is enough to have the Top spot.From Miami and Indian Wells Federer needs to have 720 points to stay on the Top so 2 semi finals will be enough.If Federer reaches Semi final in IW he will lose 640 points .The difference between Nadal and Federer is 600 now but with the 90 included it become 690 so Fed will still lead by 50 points before Miami
Click to expand...
Right. My mistake in reading the table in the first page.
Federer then needs to get at least to final in IW to prevent Nadal getting back to #1.
How easy is that gonna be?
 
D

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
Sudacafan said:
Right. My mistake in reading the table in the first page.
Federer then needs to get at least to final in IW to prevent Nadal getting back to #1.
How easy is that gonna be?
Click to expand...
With Masters draws melting into cuppycake, it may not be that hard. Hope Djokovic gets back in Miami.
 
L

limmt

Rookie
Sudacafan said:
Right. My mistake in reading the table in the first page.
Federer then needs to get at least to final in IW to prevent Nadal getting back to #1.
How easy is that gonna be?
Click to expand...

No, Fed needs to get at least to the semifinals to keep the #1, it's even easier!
 
Sudacafan

Sudacafan

Bionic Poster
Correct.
Federer has 10060 points. Defends 1000, so he starts to play IW with 9060.
Nadal has 9460 points. Defends 90, so he will stay at 9370 after IW as he is not playing.
So Federer needs to earn more than 310 points (9370 - 9060) to prevent Rafa from passing him. A semi gives 360 points, so that’s what he needs.
 
Last edited:
BGod

BGod

G.O.A.T.
At this point Roger could make semi-finals in his sleep. I'm convinced he plays Miami considering he skips clay and given this opportunity with Nadal's injury.

He's already forfeiting 600 points from Toronto and while getting that back and more in Cincinnati he can only look at what's in front of him.

I would not be stunned if he wins the double again. Think about the fact Wawrinka & Nadal not being there while Murray & Novsk still on the outs as well.

So he extends his lead to 1300 putting all pressure on Nadal who I think finally skips Rome and loses some points there and if completing the others (MC, Madrid, Bar, FO) sits far enough away he skips Wimbledon and focuses on the USO Triple Crown especially winning Canada.

But again it'll come down to USO for #1.

I'm picking Cilic at Wimbledon though.
 
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