2012 del Potro vs 2022 Alcaraz

[AnOctorokForDinner]

AO: del Potro lost QF routinely to Fedr; Alcaraz lost 3R to Berrettini in deciding TB

RG: del Potro lost QF to Fedr from two sets up after hurting his leg a bit; Alcaraz lost QF to Zverev in 4

WB: del Potro lost 4R routinely to peak Ferrer; Alcaraz lost in fairly routine 4 sets to Sinner

USO: del Potro lost QF in straight to zoning Djokovic (pre-wind); Alcaraz won after saving MP in QF vs Sinner

Olympics (grass): del Potro lost an epic SF to Fedr then beat Joe for the bronze; no olympix in 2022


Masters:
del Potro lost in QF/SF to Federer, Djokovic, Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga, and twice in 2R to Stepanek and Llodra. All losses in straights; the Berdych loss in Madrid was a razor tight 7-6 7-6, rest were fairly one-sided

Alcaraz won Miami over Tsitsipas, Hurkacz and Ruud & Madrid over Oldal and Oldovic (and DFrev); lost IW semi to Oldal, Cincy QF to Norrie, MC and Canada first matches lost to Korda and Paul, Paris TBD

Lesser events:
del Potro played 3 500s, losing Rotterdam and Dubai to Federer but beating him in the Basel final; and 4 250s, 3 of which he won beating Tsonga, Gasquet, Wawrinka (one loss in his first event of the year at Sydney (AO prep) to Baghs)

Alcaraz played 4 500s and 1 250 so far, winning Rio (Berrettini, Schwartzman) and Barcelona (Tsitsipas, de Minaur where he saved MPs, PCB) while losing two finals to Musetti & Sinner, and now failing to Astana 1R to Goffin

YEC:
del Potro made SF beating Fred and Tipsy, which he then lost in 3 to Djok; Alcaraz TBD

Tells us?

 

[TheFifthSet]

Alcaraz with the higher theoretical gear, and he offered more resistance in his losses (I know the competition was immense, but all of those straight-set losses aren’t a good look, Delpo took some heavy beatings in ‘12)…definitely closer than it appears on the surface though.

Alcaraz on HC and clay, Delpo on grass and indoors (barring something wild)…Alcaraz overall given the prevalence of the first two.

 

[Sudacafan]

I will summarize it like this: Alcaraz had a better year considering results, but DelPo had harder competition.

 

[Third Serve]

Carlos ranked lower than 7 in the strong era?

this is concerning, troubling, and worrying

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

Alcaraz with the higher theoretical gear, and he offered more resistance in his losses (I know the competition was immense, but all of those straight-set losses aren’t a good look, Delpo took some heavy beatings in ‘12)…definitely closer than it appears on the surface though.

Alcaraz on HC and clay, Delpo on grass and indoors (barring something wild)…Alcaraz overall given the prevalence of the first two.

What if del Potro played equal or better than Alcaraz at every slam? I can sure see delPo beating Buratini at the AO (he lost badly to Fred but Matt ain't close) and Sinner at the USO without having to face MP, and I don't see Karl go two sets up on FEDR at RG.

Karl better in the masters but probably does about as well in terms of results as Delpo did if he is hypothetically transported into 2012, except I guess he beats Berdych to make the Madrid final but Fedr is too much eventually.

 

[StrongRule]

What if del Potro played equal or better than Alcaraz at every slam? I can sure see delPo beating Buratini at the AO (he lost badly to Fred but Matt ain't close) and Sinner at the USO without having to face MP, and I don't see Karl go two sets up on FEDR at RG.

Karl better in the masters but probably does about as well in terms of results as Delpo did if he is hypothetically transported into 2012, except I guess he beats Berdych to make the Madrid final but Fedr is too much eventually.

Del Potro never even reached a semifinal in AO, and the 2 times he reached a 1/4 final it was a terrible beatdown. Clearly his worst slam, and it's really not a good idea to hype him there. Just like it is funny when people try to hype Murray in USO, but Murray at least had 2-3 decent (or better) runs there in his career.

 

[RS]

Carlos by a bit?

 

[RS]

Del Potro never even reached a semifinal in AO, and the 2 times he reached a 1/4 final it was a terrible beatdown. Clearly his worst slam, and it's really not a good idea to hype him there. Just like it is funny when people try to hype Murray in USO, but Murray at least had 2-3 decent (or better) runs there in his career.

Is Murray overhyped at USO?

 

[Sudacafan]

All that matters here is that Del Potro is taller.

 

[StrongRule]

Is Murray overhyped at USO?

Some try to claim he would have been the favorite in USO in the last few years if he was in form. Which is ridiculous given how many early upsets he had there.

 

[RS]

Some try to claim he would have been the favorite in USO in the last few years if he was in form. Which is ridiculous given how many early upsets he had there.

Ah ok. Sure they didn't mean in prime form at least half those comments?

 

[Kralingen]

Well, 09 DelPo > 22 Carlos which I suppose is the more relevant question here

DelPo had some results Carlos wouldn’t have (Olympic Bronze, mainly, but a couple 250 results etc) and of course Carlos would be very hard pressed to defeat 12 USO QF Djokovic, or AO/RG/Olympics 12 Fed…

But you’ve got to really do something more than just straights to get extra credit for the competition here. He essentially showed up and was unfortunate but didn’t really push the better competition enough to make up for the clear achievements gap.

Alcaraz it is, just cause I hate arguing for a guy who gets straight setted in so many important losses. 2013 would be closer imo. Head to head DelPo may actually win though.

 

[-snake-]

Stronker era so any comparison is silly. Raz will never ever face Youngervic and Fedr. The kid's gonna pad up his resume with all sorts of crazy numbers just because of this.

 

[TheFifthSet]

What if del Potro played equal or better than Alcaraz at every slam? I can sure see delPo beating Buratini at the AO (he lost badly to Fred but Matt ain't close) and Sinner at the USO without having to face MP, and I don't see Karl go two sets up on FEDR at RG.

Karl better in the masters but probably does about as well in terms of results as Delpo did if he is hypothetically transported into 2012, except I guess he beats Berdych to make the Madrid final but Fedr is too much eventually.

Fed was not good on red clay in ‘12 (or really just about any year after ‘11, a few one-offs aside)…he was flat in Rome and struggled badly at RG, where a healthy Delpo (who himself wasn’t as solid on clay as during his short-lived, flame-throwing peak) likely finishes him off. I don’t think it’s inconceivable for Alcaraz to take a two set lead when Fed was playing with fire even with Goffin the round before, and wasn’t commanding against Unger or Mahut either.

The winners levels were just way too high at AO/RG/W for Alcaraz to sniff a win, so again I agree the comparison ain’t as outlandish as it first seems. Success at the USO would be contingent on a few things going Alcy’s way…no way he beats pre-finals Novak in normal conditions, so he’d have to be on Murray’s side to have much of a chance, and even then I give him a 25%ish chance to reach the final…a match against Windovic is hard to predict, barely even the same sport when it’s that windy.

In a series of simulations (with the SF + F weather remaining the same) I’d give ‘22 Alcaraz slightly higher odds in the one slam either of them have any chance in hell of winning in ‘12, and the edge at the Masters. Not saying much, yes, so the point of the thread is well-taken.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Well, 09 DelPo > 22 Carlos which I suppose is the more relevant question here

DelPo had some results Carlos wouldn’t have (Olympic Bronze, mainly, but a couple 250 results etc) and of course Carlos would be very hard pressed to defeat 12 USO QF Djokovic, or AO/RG/Olympics 12 Fed…

But you’ve got to really do something more than just straights to get extra credit for the competition here. He essentially showed up and was unfortunate but didn’t really push the better competition enough to make up for the clear achievements gap.

Alcaraz it is, just cause I hate arguing for a guy who gets straight setted in so many important losses. 2013 would be closer imo. Head to head DelPo may actually win though.

Agreed.

Outside of Oly’s and a portion of the indoor season, Delpo was by and large a gatekeeper in 2012. He lost nearly all of the matches he was supposed to (and 13 of 17 losses were straights-setters, a handful against weaker opponents so not that many valiant/moral win-losses lel) but was so consistent that he had enough reps against the top guys to throw in an upset or two to not be rendered a complete afterthought. Reluctant as I am to pair the two, it was a very Berdych-like season.

‘13 Delpo was less consistent but had a much higher top level.

 

[dapchai]

Definitely the one who lost to Federer more.

 

[Sudacafan]

Definitely the one who lost to Federer more.

And the one who scored his two more important career victories against Federer, as well. (1 slam + 1 M1000 finals).

 

[Mark-Touch]

Who cares really?
I mean come on.
If I never see a "Who is/was the better player", it can't happen soon enough.
Just enjoy the matches you watch/play.

 

[Sampras-Bruguera 1993]

Probably Del Potro as the tour was just better at the time. '22 Carlos wouldn't win anything at all if he went up against the field of 10 years ago

 

[StrongRule]

Well, 09 DelPo > 22 Carlos which I suppose is the more relevant question here

DelPo had some results Carlos wouldn’t have (Olympic Bronze, mainly, but a couple 250 results etc) and of course Carlos would be very hard pressed to defeat 12 USO QF Djokovic, or AO/RG/Olympics 12 Fed…

But you’ve got to really do something more than just straights to get extra credit for the competition here. He essentially showed up and was unfortunate but didn’t really push the better competition enough to make up for the clear achievements gap.

Alcaraz it is, just cause I hate arguing for a guy who gets straight setted in so many important losses. 2013 would be closer imo. Head to head DelPo may actually win though.

This. Seems like some users think that if a player lost to prime/peak big 3 players then he doesn't deserve any bashing, even if back in 2012-2013 he actually was bashed (and for a reason) for that.

In 2013 too, Del Potro didn't win anything, and lost almost all of his matches against top players, even went 2-1 down against 2013 Federer. IMO he doesn't deserve more credit for his losses (even if they were close) than Alcaraz does for beating 3 top players in Madrid this year. And yeah, the USO field this year was weak. But on the other hand, Del Potro in USO 2013 lost to an old Hewitt in the second round, so it's pretty safe to assume he wasn't winning USO 2022 with this level. Honestly, the guy is being overrated a lot here.

 

[DSH]

Is Murray overhyped at USO?

It is!