CoolCoolCool
Hall of Fame
Yep, that's something that a lot of Djoker fans indeed don't acknowledge, but I didn't see them deny that he's declining. Of course he is, he's 36 and everyone knows this.
Djokovic is in a slow decline, but his fans don't acknowledge it yet
- Thread starter Gary Duane
- Start date
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
By not taking credit away of him, taking credit away from him
Be patient , one day your doom&gloom predictions of decline in Djokovic game will come true. But not yet
Your misfortune is that Novak added new weapons to his game , since 2011 such as big FH and great serve that helps him getting to TBs . He now has best TB winning %, another category in which he topped your favorite
In 2011 Djokovic didn't win RG but 2Masters &ATP250, 4 days between QF and SF threw him off the rhytm. We all know how much rhythm means in his game
See how easy it is to take credit away from winning player, not taking credit away.
Kralingen
Talk Tennis Guru
Lol, gravedigging an old statistical-based analysis by the most objective poster on here.
Gary has forgotten more about tennis than most of us will ever know and presented fact-based statistical arguments, you know, numbers - and even this is viewed as ‘hating’ and deserving of ridicule.
All of the success in the world can’t buy you class.
Gary has forgotten more about tennis than most of us will ever know and presented fact-based statistical arguments, you know, numbers - and even this is viewed as ‘hating’ and deserving of ridicule.
All of the success in the world can’t buy you class.
Few great, if any great tennis players are physically as good as they were, after turning 35 or so.
RaulRamirez
Legend
I think that the title of the thread points a finger, yet the information Gary provides is objective. Somewhere in the thread (iirc) he also states - and of course, I agree - that tennis isn't swimming, track and field or bowling. It is hard to have pure numbers that aren't dependent on competition.
Because of Gary's research, I have thought more about the 60% (games won) benchmark as an indicator of dominance. Obviously, if a player is only holding serve 60% of the time, he'll need to break serve 60% to achieve that. If he's only breaking 20%, he'll have to hold 100% to achieve it. (Exaggerating to make a point.)
Of course, true break numbers usually fall in that 30-35% range for top players -- with variations for surface and conditions.
I accept that Novak's slight physical drop (decline sounds too precipitous) will show up in his defensive stats which I haven't pored over. But he has also kept in such great shape, and he has compensated often with better serving and a more aggressive forehand. I'm not sure what the stats say, but he also knows how to peak for slams (and only for slams) and often gets better as the slams get deeper. So while Novak is hardly immune to inevitable physical "decline", at four tourneys a year (assuming ability to enter them) he presents nearly the same overall challenge as he did in 2011 and 15-16. His formula is just a little different.
Because of Gary's research, I have thought more about the 60% (games won) benchmark as an indicator of dominance. Obviously, if a player is only holding serve 60% of the time, he'll need to break serve 60% to achieve that. If he's only breaking 20%, he'll have to hold 100% to achieve it. (Exaggerating to make a point.)
Of course, true break numbers usually fall in that 30-35% range for top players -- with variations for surface and conditions.
I accept that Novak's slight physical drop (decline sounds too precipitous) will show up in his defensive stats which I haven't pored over. But he has also kept in such great shape, and he has compensated often with better serving and a more aggressive forehand. I'm not sure what the stats say, but he also knows how to peak for slams (and only for slams) and often gets better as the slams get deeper. So while Novak is hardly immune to inevitable physical "decline", at four tourneys a year (assuming ability to enter them) he presents nearly the same overall challenge as he did in 2011 and 15-16. His formula is just a little different.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Sampras on two surfaces was famous for raising his level in majors. I don't believe that was always true for Djokovic in 2011. One of the most unpleasant members of this forum back then made the argument that he #majored in #minors. Using hashtags that were bogus was this member's claim to fame. Eventually she got banned for annoying everyone.
That is now reversed. There is no one more dangerous in majors and Djokovic because of his tie break record is absolutely spectacular now at raising his level in big matches.
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Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
That is an understatement.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Total % of points: Lacking data before 1991
Points are very closely linked to games
Career all surfaces
1 [ESP] ESP Rafael Nadal [Active] 54.49%
2 [SRB] SRB Novak Djokovic [Active] 54.49%
3 [SUI] SUI Roger Federer 54.10%
4 [USA] USA Pete Sampras 53.51%
Career hard
1 [SRB] SRB Novak Djokovic [Active] 54.73%
2 [SUI] SUI Roger Federer 54.29%
3 [USA] USA Pete Sampras 53.91%
Career clay
1 [ESP] ESP Rafael Nadal [Active] 56.24%
2 [SRB] SRB Novak Djokovic [Active] 54.12%
3 [SUI] SUI Roger Federer
Career grass
1 [USA] USA Pete Sampras 54.64%
2 [SUI] SUI Roger Federer 54.59%
3 [SRB] SRB Novak Djokovic [Active] 54.31%
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
I'm not giving away credit and I'm not taking away credit. I posted statistics and foolishly linked them to Dropbox not knowing that somebody would resurrect the thread years later.
Djokovic's decline in returning statistics has been so slow that he has been able to compensate on good days with more efficient serving and an incredible choice of shots in tiebreakers. By carefully peaking for majors he has been able to stay right at the very top. This is what the greatest ATGs do later in their careers. If you think this is a criticism you are missing the point. He is maximizing the talent he was born with by adding to that a greater understanding of the game.
xFedal
Legend
Novak is close to winning 80% 1serve points won last 52 weeks ? This is Fed level Serve numbers.
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
Clarky ?
Predicting Novak declne /downfall since 2015 at least?
One of the kindest detractors though
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
I described a decline in the end of 2016 through 2017. Nothing good or bad would surprise me this year. It is an anomaly.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Do you have the source for that number?
mehdimike
Hall of Fame
Hi Gary
Just wanted to thank you for provoding these stats.
Hope you are doing fine in your life as well. Cheers
xFedal
Legend
79.5% for Novak on 1st serve points won !! Serve is great no ?
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
Up to RG 2016 Novak already struglled with elbow injury. It reflected in stats
Changed his serve motion and racquet specs afrer surgery early 2018
Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic profile at Ultimate Tennis Statistics
www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
I liked that change in the serve. When his elbow got better he still kept some of that change. You can see it now in his wrist.
"Novak is close to winning 80% 1serve points won last 52 weeks ? This is Fed level Serve numbers."
But I see here: 73.9, so that's a big difference.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
What is eye opening is how slow that decline is and how incredibly clutch he is still in slams.
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
You need to choose last 52 week category (as xfedal said in his post)
Razer
Legend
Sampras and Djokovic raise their level under pressure
Federer lowers his level under pressure
Nadal is more or less same under all conditions.
Do you agree with this? @Gary Duane
Federer lowers his level under pressure
Nadal is more or less same under all conditions.
Do you agree with this? @Gary Duane
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
I see it now. But 70.1 for 2022 and 74.8 for 2023. So something strange is going on.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Lets investigate Gary
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
For last 52 weeks it’s 79,50 %just as poster said.Navigation through categories is similar to ATP site
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
Gary ,there is Tennis Abstract site,and it’s the same 79,50% points of 1 serve won in last 52 weeks
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
I know that. But it is linked to a period that is an anomaly. Isner has a career stat of 79%, Djokovic was in the zone during that 52 week period. However this statistic is scary good.
Born_to_slice
Legend
Think Djokovic perfected the art of saving himself for the most important tournaments and even in them, for the most important matches. This causes deceiving statistical numbers which are not showing what is he capable of producing.
LaVie en Rose
Hall of Fame
You're looking at GOAT stats
Besides Novak tennis IQ is sky high, no one anticipates /read the game like him
Yes , good observation
Cortana
Legend
This.
Djokovic trying to win all 9 Masters and all 4 slams would be the end of him. Like Murray after 2016.
jm1980
Talk Tennis Guru
AngieB, though I'm pretty sure they are still with us, just using a different handle
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
I think there is a great deal of truth to that.
socallefty
G.O.A.T.
If he is winning less return games, how is he doing on winning service games compared to the past? It seems like he is a much better/accurate server now with a higher 1st serve %.
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
You can play around this stats here. Yeh he's generally more effective on serve.
You can also check tournament performance at tennis abstract, and in terms of effectiveness there's just not much meaningful difference between Djokovic now in Slams and Djokovic during his "first prime" starting back in 2011. It's easy to check performance there by tournament, rather than just bundling the whole clay season or whole hard season. Of course Djokovic can no longer pound out a season for like 90 matches and maintain an amazing level, so I'm just mainly interested in his Slam performance level.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Even that isn't exactly a fair comparison as the competition changed a lot after 2011.
Gary Duane
G.O.A.T.
This is interesting here:
Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic profile at Ultimate Tennis Statistics
www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com
Pick a category and redraw a graph.
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
It's an adequate enough comparison for tracking the general changes in the balance with which Djokovic attains similar enough effectiveness, especially when it comes to general trends when checking his serve and return stats over his career and that kinda thing. But of course, when it comes to looking at Djokovic's level when it's most important (SFs Fs) we must weighing context heavily because the sample size is small and it's far less about general trends. In that sense, in recent years Djokovic's mental preparedness for winning Slams is less shaky than in the years between 2011 and 2015. Part of that is the competition but another part of it is experience and also the detailed strategic intention that Djokovic applies to important matches these days. That stuff probably makes up for some physical decline and whatnot. Overall, his winning level in recent years has been more than worthy, but his recent competition hasn't generally been at an ATG level. *shrugs*
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Federer's level in his 30's was more than worthy and that only netted him 4 slams. Competition matters once you reach 30.
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
You can also plot other players onto those charts under the Rivalries tab by then selecting Statistics.
-NN-
G.O.A.T.
Yeh I had no clue.
xFedal
Legend
So I was right when I said Novak has Fed like Serve numbers now with 79.5% 1serve won! I always knew that Novak had that in him to be similar to Fed in that category though historically he has been behind . The potential was there he is taller than Fed .You can also plot other players onto those charts under the Rivalries tab by then selecting Statistics.
