Well, I think given the plethora of issues he has had starting the past year reaching up till now, it might be a tough ask. But you never say never when it comes to Rafa. He is resilient and is a fighter through and through. He was on the right track and a serious contender at this year's FO when his wrist injury happened. Have a feeling that he will pick up where he left off once he is back.
The only thing is that Rafa is a big confidence player and needs matches to build up his confidence. Hopefully he does that and second part of the season sees him comeback with a vengeance. One of the reasons why I was so melancholic about this injury was this very reason that it happened as he was building really good momentum for himself. Bad timing and luck.
Rafa fan or not, we all have to admit, tour seems boring without him
. Matches just do not seem as fun unless there is someone chasing down every last ball, every point like it is a matter of life and death. Wish him the best. We need him back.
Summary: yes, in my humble opinion I think he will win a major again as long as he is healthy (granted it does seem it will be anything other than on grass).