Fed's chances of slams in 2015

[Chanwan]

I must admit, I thought he was done winning slams (or gave him a 30-35 % chance). Huge chance at Wimbledon, pretty big chance at the US, but he took neither. Right now, it appears he's playing as well as in 2012.
If he can keep this level, I think the chance of adding to his slam tally is significantly higher next year because of the following reasons.

1) In Shanghai, he almost seemed to find another gear vs. Djokovic, a gear we've barely seen in recent years.
2) His ranking. By the end of the year, he'll lead Rafa with a minimum of 2000 points (assuming he gets 500 from Paris, WTF and DC) and probably closer to 3000 points.
As far as I can tell, it's unlikely for Rafa to overtake Fed in the rankings prior to the FO unless he goes on an absolute rampage and/or Fed pulls a 2013. And given Wimbledon's way of seeding, Fed will also most likely be 1 or 2 there.
In other words, he'll be seeded 1st or 2nd for the first 3 slams in all likelihood. That's bound to increase his chances - but obviously, his level needs to stay very high.
3) More players appears capable of beating Fedalovic and Murray at a slam, but whoever (from the big 4) ends of in the final vs. a 'youngster' would have to fancy his chances given the experience gap. If it happens to be Fed vs. Dimi, Nishi etc. in a slam-final, I would personally favor Fed by quite a margin.

Needless to say, Wimbledon remains his best chance. But could the AO be the 2nd best, given his ranking and his tendency to at least reach the semis (11 years and counting)?

Feel free to add reasons, counter the reasons and debate.

 

[Chico]

Fed chances of slams in 2015 = 0%.

Sorry, just the way it is, he is too old to keep required level of play long enough. He can still show flashes of brilliance, but not often and not long enough. That is what age does to you.

 

[Nadal>>>>>Federer]

0, Nadal and Murray will be back

 

[90's Clay]

I guess anything can happen with Nadal out. and Nole/Murray's levels being down and no one else stepping up from the younger era.

If Nadal returns to full strength, no chance Fed wins anything

 

[staceyliving]

5-25% of winning 1. If he is going to win another it has to be next year, but it is unlikely. He couldn't even do it this year in great form and with the poorest year for the ATP since 2006. He will be hard pressed to match this years level, and the field can only be stronger than what it was this year.

He also has no chance at all in either the Australian or French which leaves him only 2 chances. U.S Open is hard for an older player due to the endurance factor of New York. Federer hasn't even made the final since 2008 now. So that leaves only Wimbledon which is pretty wide open, but still will be tough to win 7 straight matches when in great form this year he couldn't even beat Djokovic, not the best grass courter, who was choking in the final numerous times too.

 

[The_Mental_Giant]

I guess anything can happen with Nadal out. and Nole/Murray's levels being down and no one else stepping up from the younger era.

If Nadal returns to full strength, no chance Fed wins anything

If slams were contended at 3 sets then Fed would have a serious shot, but as It remains being a 5 setter pushing fest, he stand no chance, fed will be roasted in all 4 slams but Wimbledon , where he will probably fall in SF.

 

[The_Mental_Giant]

Fed chances of slams in 2015 = 0%.

Sorry, just the way it is, he is too old to keep required level of play long enough. He can still show flashes of brilliance, but not often and not long enough. That is what age does to you.

We all know it will be a CYGS for djokovic next year. :twisted:

 

[Sysyphus]

I must admit, I thought he was done winning slams (or gave him a 30-35 % chance). Huge chance at Wimbledon, pretty big chance at the US, but he took neither. Right now, it appears he's playing as well as in 2012.
If he can keep this level, I think the chance of adding to his slam tally is significantly higher next year because of the following reasons.

1) In Shanghai, he almost seemed to find another gear vs. Djokovic, a gear we've barely seen in recent years.
2) His ranking. By the end of the year, he'll lead Rafa with a minimum of 2000 points (assuming he gets 500 from Paris, WTF and DC) and probably closer to 3000 points.
As far as I can tell, it's unlikely for Rafa to overtake Fed in the rankings prior to the FO unless he goes on an absolute rampage and/or Fed pulls a 2013. And given Wimbledon's way of seeding, Fed will also most likely be 1 or 2 there.
In other words, he'll be seeded 1st or 2nd for the first 3 slams in all likelihood. That's bound to increase his chances - but obviously, his level needs to stay very high.
3) More players appears capable of beating Fedalovic and Murray at a slam, but whoever (from the big 4) ends of in the final vs. a 'youngster' would have to fancy his chances given the experience gap. If it happens to be Fed vs. Dimi, Nishi etc. in a slam-final, I would personally favor Fed by quite a margin.

Needless to say, Wimbledon remains his best chance. But could the AO be the 2nd best, given his ranking and his tendency to at least reach the semis (11 years and counting)?

Feel free to add reasons, counter the reasons and debate.

All good points, and I agree: Roger winning a slam in 2015 certainly seems plausible. The tour has been so unstable this year, so with favorable circumstances and good form he will have his chance. However, I think your former estimate of 30-35 % chance is still quite reasonable.
If he can perfect his attacking net game for Wimbledon '15, then it will be interesting!

 

[Chico]

We all know it will be a CYGS for djokovic next year. :twisted:

That would be very nice, but I doubt it will happen. Novak will win 2-3 slams for sure though. The remaining 1-2 will not go to Federer though (nor Nadal for that matter).

 

[Djokovic2011]

We all know it will be a CYGS for djokovic next year. :twisted:

I doubt it. 2011 was his best chance for that to happen.

 

[uliks]

Since AO 2010 goat won only one slam. So that's period of almost 5 years now. So his chances are very slim

 

[The_Mental_Giant]

I doubt it. 2011 was his best chance for that to happen.

I think AO, RG and USO will be won by either Nadal or Djoker.Wimbledon will be either Murray or Federer. The only non big 4 I see with chances of winning a slam next year will be Del potro ( If he comes fully recovered, which I highly doubt)

 

[The_Mental_Giant]

Since 2010 goat won only one slam. So his chances are very slim

I'm sorry but I count 8.

 

[TennisCJC]

Could happen but unlikely. I hope he gets another. It would be a great way to cap a great career.

 

[tennisaddict]

BO5 is a different breed. Very difficult for Fed to win 7 BO5 matches.

There is a slim chance if Novak/Murray/Rafa end up in the same half.

Of course, all of this goes outside the window at Wimbledon, where i fancy his chances till the time he retires.

 

[The_Mental_Giant]

That would be very nice, but I doubt it will happen. Novak will win 2-3 slams for sure though. The remaining 1-2 will not go to Federer though (nor Nadal for that matter).

what makes you think Nole will do better in 2015 than he did in 2012-2014? he is a daddy now.

 

[Chico]

what makes you think Nole will do better in 2015 than he did in 2012-2014? he is a daddy now.

So much bad luck like he had in many slams in 2012-2014 can't last forever. It has to turn to his side.

 

[Djokovic2011]

I think AO, RG and USO will be won by either Nadal or Djoker.Wimbledon will be either Murray or Federer. The only non big 4 I see with chances of winning a slam next year will be Del potro ( If he comes fully recovered, which I highly doubt)

Don't count out Nishikori either. I have high expectations for him next year.

 

[Chanwan]

btw, sorry for not making the poll public - thought it would be that automatically

 

[The_Mental_Giant]

Don't count out Nishikori either. I have high expectations for him next year.

He has the tennis, but his body is fragile, he seems always gazed out in finals...

 

[The_Mental_Giant]

So much bad luck like he had in many slams in 2012-2014 can't last forever. It has to turn to his side.

bad luck winning in 2012 australian open when nadal was 4-2 and serving? yet nole won.
bad luck when Fed had matchpoint in USO 2011, yet Djokovic won
Bad luck winning AO 2013 with Nadal out?


If anything Djokovic benefited of Fedal decline/absence so many times.

 

[90's Clay]

We all know it will be a CYGS for djokovic next year. :twisted:

With the way Nole is playing these days? No chance of that happening.

 

[Djokovic2011]

bad luck winning in 2012 australian open when nadal was 4-2 and serving? yet nole won.
bad luck when Fed had matchpoint in USO 2011, yet Djokovic won
Bad luck winning AO 2013 with Nadal out?


If anything Djokovic benefited of Fedal decline/absence so many times.

Djokovic deserves every single one of his 7 Slams and that's all there is to it. You're talking like he's the most opportunistic player ever, even though he's beaten Fedal 36 times, including 9 times at the Slams and yes, many of those matches took place when both Federer and Nadal especially were at their peak/prime level. Give credit where it's due, no matter how much you hate the guy.

 

[The_Mental_Giant]

Djokovic deserves every single one of his 7 Slams and that's all there is to it. You're talking like he's the most opportunistic player ever, even though he's beaten Fedal 36 times, including 9 times at the Slams and yes, many of those matches took place when both Federer and Nadal especially were at their peak/prime level. Give credit where it's due, no matter how much you hate the guy.

I was acting as devil advocate here, you could make point for djokovic being overachiever/underachiever or whatever, the only certain thing is he deserved every bit of his 7 slams, and we (me included) have no heck of Idea what is going to happen in 2015

 

[moonballs]

bad luck winning in 2012 australian open when nadal was 4-2 and serving? yet nole won.
bad luck when Fed had matchpoint in USO 2011, yet Djokovic won
Bad luck winning AO 2013 with Nadal out?


If anything Djokovic benefited of Fedal decline/absence so many times.

That's unfair to Djokovic. He has far more times when he had to beat Nadal and Federer back to back to win a slam as he is the youngest of the three.

 

[Chico]

With some luck, fair draws, fair scheduling and unbiased officials, Djokovic should have won at east following slams on top of his 7:

USO 2010
RG 2012
USO 2012
FO 2013
USO 2013
FO 2014

 

[Towser83]

I guess anything can happen with Nadal out. and Nole/Murray's levels being down and no one else stepping up from the younger era.

If Nadal returns to full strength, no chance Fed wins anything

So you're saying, if Nadal defies medical science and gets younger? Might as well say if Fed returns to full strength he wins Wimbledon.

That would be very nice, but I doubt it will happen. Novak will win 2-3 slams for sure though. The remaining 1-2 will not go to Federer though (nor Nadal for that matter).

That's a big prediction considering 2011 is the only year that Djokovic has won more than one slam. 3 chances to repeat a double slam yearand he's not done it. And he's getting older and just had a kid. Djokovic is the guy that as much as he's won, threw away chances to win more.Even after 2011 he's somewhat fallen short of what he could do. Take that as an insult if you wish but I don't mean it like that. He had the talent to have about 10 or 11 slams right now and some of those might have been ones lost to Nadal, meaning he could be near to Nadal's slam count and chasing Sampras's amount.

So much bad luck like he had in many slams in 2012-2014 can't last forever. It has to turn to his side.

He hasn't really had bad luck, he's mainly got himself to blame. Stupid things like falling into the net in 2013 RG. Probably cost him RG. That in turn might have cost him the USO final, but again in the USO he had the momentum and should have gone 2 sets to 1 up yet totally folds. In the USO 2012 he put too much into 2 sets he lost, then destroys Murray in the next 2 before doing a Federer circa 2009 and collapses in the final set. To be fair I think he was mentally shot after 4 sets where he was concentrating hard, but it was vs Murray, he should have had the edge and either won 1 of those first 2 sets or not got mentally outperformed in the 5th. Wimbledon 2013 he threw away all 3 sets. not saying he should have won them all but he didn't win any of them. Only time I can say he was unlucky was 2012 when his match with Nadal got halted with him giving Nadal hell, then he has to come back and serve and of course loses serve straight away. But you can't say it's bad luck that he keeps double faulting or hitting terrible overheads on match point down, or falling into a net. That's the other side of the coin that has seen him save match points, hit return winners etc... sometimes he's a rock but sometimes he's blown it.

 

[staceyliving]

bad luck winning in 2012 australian open when nadal was 4-2 and serving? yet nole won.
bad luck when Fed had matchpoint in USO 2011, yet Djokovic won
Bad luck winning AO 2013 with Nadal out?

Yeah, he has been lucky much more than unlucky if anything. RG 2013 he had a lucky charm to even be in a 5th set when the stats showed Nadal way ahead in winners, way lower in errors, winning many more points. Nadal hit 22 winners in the 5th set, and Djokovic was still up a break late in the 5th somehow. Must have sold his soul to the devil for the massive luck in that one (and still lost it, so I hope he still feels it was worth it).

 

[Towser83]

With some luck, fair draws, fair scheduling and unbiased officials, Djokovic should have won at east following slams on top of his 7:

USO 2010
RG 2012
USO 2012
FO 2013
USO 2013
FO 2014

USO 2010 he had a fairly long match with Federer but to be honest I think he was just not playing with that much belief most of the year. Beating Federer was almost like his finalafter losing to him 3 years in a row, and the way he did it saving match points. Then it was like he forgot that he always beat Nadalon HC. He tried to out grind him on HC which at that time he was not good enough to do. Before he used to be more attacking. Over the next few months though he learnt to out grind him on hc and win like that.

RG 2012 did get unlucky with the match being stopped. Maybe would have
won that.

RG 2013- he threw that away by falling into the net. Got himself to blame.

USO 2013, what was unlucky about that? Not saying it wasn't, I just can't remember the circumstances.

RG 2014 - didn't see that match, what was unlucky about that?

 

[staceyliving]

USO 2010 he had a fairly long match with Federer but to be honest I think he was just not playing with that much belief most of the year. Beating Federer was almost like his finalafter losing to him 3 years in a row, and the way he did it saving match points. Then it was like he forgot that he always beat Nadalon HC.

Only a Djokovic fan could think the 2010 U.S Open was ever Djokovic's to win. :lol: And no Djokovic did not "always beat Nadal on HC" at that point. He beat him sometimes on hard courts, but Nadal was probably overall the better player on every surface at that point, and at that time and tournament was by a huge margin in better form (than Djokovic or anyone). He did well to take a set, as Federer probably wouldn't have off Nadal if he had won their semi instead.

 

[Towser83]

Only a Djokovic fan could think the 2010 U.S Open was ever Djokovic's to win. :lol: And no Djokovic did not "always beat Nadal on HC" at that point. He beat him sometimes on hard courts, but Nadal was probably overall the better player on every surface at that point, and at that time and tournament was by a huge margin in better form (than Djokovic or anyone). He did well to take a set, as Federer probably wouldn't have off Nadal if he had won their semi instead.

I didn't say it was his to win I don't know if you meant me or Chico. I think Djokovic's game was nowhere near good enough to win. And no he didn't beat him every single time on HC, but at that point his H2H with Nadal on HC was 7-3 (which is a lot more than "sometimes") having won those 7 matches in straight sets at 5 different masters events. He also had a HC slam title and a final before Nadal did despite being younger. Djokovic is a better HC player than Nadal just like Nadal is a better clay court player, and though they have beaten each other on both surfaces, Nadal at his best is better than Djokovic on clay and Djokovic at his best is better than Nadal on HC. In 2010 though nadal was at his best and Djokovic wasn't. Nole didn't have the chance to win but he sort of played a poor 2010 season as a whole, then tried to play a totally different game to the one that actually made him a successful HC player.

 

[not_federer]

I actually think Australia is one of his best chances for a slam. He's consistently made the semis there for more than a decade and with the weather and the off season you never know what will happen.

Odds are still slim but he has a great shot at AO and of course Wimbledon. French and US, not so much. I say 25% chance he wins a slam next year.

 

[Zoid]

With some luck, fair draws, fair scheduling and unbiased officials, Djokovic should have won at east following slams on top of his 7:

USO 2010
RG 2012
USO 2012
FO 2013
USO 2013
FO 2014

should have, would have, could have. You are hilariously biased.

At the end of the day all those excuses you list for djokovic losing are part and parcel of tennis. Scheduling?? mate every player starts the tournament wherever they are drawn (by lottery) on the same page, wind/rain delays can potentially happen to every player and by the end of a career the bad days would be equalled out with the good.

Half the time you blame novaks losses on heat?? that;s jut poor conditioning, not bad luck.

Dealing with delays, let cords, windy days, heat are all part of tennis. You don;t think so because you don't play, you've probably only lightly followed tennis since 2011, and it wouldn't be a stretch for me to assume you only follow Novak and track the movements of the top10. You probably have never even heard of the challenger/futures tour.

 

[coloskier]

I guess anything can happen with Nadal out. and Nole/Murray's levels being down and no one else stepping up from the younger era.

If Nadal returns to full strength, no chance Fed wins anything

Nadal has to make it to the final to beat Fed on hardcourt first, which he has shown no propensity to do at all since FO. Nadal will continue to win on clay, but that's about it. Too many players now know that he can be beaten with a certain style, and they will all be playing it if they can.

 

[90's Clay]

Nadal if healthy is still the best outdoor hardcourt player.. Clay no brainer. So Nadal could still be the easy favorite at the French, USO, and maybe at the AO. He has had some back luck in Australia the past few years with injuries

 

[staceyliving]

Unless he declines due to daddy fever Djokovic is overall the best hard court player now. However that remains to be seen. However even if he has declined, it remains to be seen if Nadal also hasn't. Who know, if he gets more consistent and gets over his U.S Open hangover Cilic might take over as the one to beat on hard courts now (a huge if obviously though). Or Murray if he gets his sh1t back together. Most likely nobody will dominate hard courts for awhile (nobody really has since peak Fed really, despite Djokovic's Australian Open and WTF win runs) which will leave plenty of chances regardless for Nadal, the best competitor in the game.

 

[Towser83]

Nadal if healthy is still the best outdoor hardcourt player.. Clay no brainer. So Nadal could still be the easy favorite at the French, USO, and maybe at the AO. He has had some back luck in Australia the past few years with injuries

LMAO

Djokovic vs Nadal on outdoor hard

H2H - 11-5 to Djokovic

Slams - 5-3 to Djokovic

Masters - 12 - 7 to Djokovic

It's like what would happen with the Nadal vs Federer H2H if Nadal led Federer in slams and titles as well. And we know how cut and dry that would be.

Nadal is getting older. But who knows, maybe he can win all the slams next year and we'll know it's a weak era.

 

[Towser83]

Unless he declines due to daddy fever Djokovic is overall the best hard court player now. However that remains to be seen. However even if he has declined, it remains to be seen if Nadal also hasn't. Who know, if he gets more consistent and gets over his U.S Open hangover Cilic might take over as the one to beat on hard courts now (a huge if obviously though). Or Murray if he gets his sh1t back together. Most likely nobody will dominate hard courts for awhile (nobody really has since peak Fed really, despite Djokovic's Australian Open and WTF win runs) which will leave plenty of chances regardless for Nadal, the best competitor in the game.

I don't see anyone really dominating, though I think Nadal has traditionally been more motivated than Djokovic. If the field isn't that great, Nadal could raise himself above everyone by sheer will. But will he still have the motivation? Time will tell. I think Djokovic will lose some though and I don't see Cilic being consistant though I always felt he would win a slam.

 

[Djokovic2011]

Nadal if healthy is still the best outdoor hardcourt player.. Clay no brainer. So Nadal could still be the easy favorite at the French, USO, and maybe at the AO. He has had some back luck in Australia the past few years with injuries

 

[Steve0904]

Nadal if healthy is still the best outdoor hardcourt player.. Clay no brainer. So Nadal could still be the easy favorite at the French, USO, and maybe at the AO. He has had some back luck in Australia the past few years with injuries

That MAY be true at the USO (and I say may because I still believe Djokovic can beat Nadal at the USO), but it is definitely not true at the AO regardless of Nadal's luck or lack thereof. Although I also think Nadal can beat Djokovic at the AO, but I wouldn't bet a lot on it, and it is still 4 titles to 1.

Further analysis shows Djokovic is better as well.

IW- Tie. 3 titles each and a couple other good results.
Miami- Djokovic (not even close)
Canada- Djokovic
Cincy- Nadal very slightly because he's won it, but he has no other finals and Novak has 4 of them.
Shanghai- Djokovic

 

[staceyliving]

I would give Nadal the slight edge at the U.S Open since he both leads in titles 2-1 and in H2H 2-1. Djokovic is consistent there but so is Nadal. He hasn't not made the semis when he played since and including 2008.

Nadal has the edge in Cincinnati of the two.

I haven't looked at all the stats but I wouldn't be surprised from rough memory if he might in Canada too.

Djokovic probably has the edge at every other hard court venue.

In Australia Djokovic is way ahead, 4 titles to 1 and even beat Nadal there when he busted his guts in 2011, although I still think Nadal choked at the end to lose, and in part due to his mental block with Djokovic at the time which was the most severe it ever was in their matchup in favor of one player. Nonetheless it was a very high quality match from both, although I have seen both play better even there (Nadal in 2009 was definitely better there, and Djokovic in 2011 and perhaps even 2008 ).

 

[Bad_Knee]

I would love to seem him in the AO final instead of the semi for a change....I think his new style will give him a much better chance there, may be even favor him if he gets to the net as much as possible. From the baseline, no chance.

FO - no chance unless very lucky with the draw and others losing.

W- Could win - I'd give him a 75/25 there

USO - slightly less likely than W, plus who knows how his form will be then, but it's always possible at the USO.

 

[Steve0904]

I'm actually not sure Nadal has the edge in Cincinnati. He had a pretty cushy draw there last year tbh. He got the 2013 version of Fed in the QF's who actually pushed him quite hard. Fed played well, but nowhere near some of his better years there IMO.

Then he got Berdych. We all know the story behind that. And in the final he got Isner.

Contrast that to Novak's draws. It's not even close. Of the 4 finals Djokovic has played there, he's gotten Murray in the finals twice and Federer twice, and obviously not the 2013 version of Federer or the post surgery version of Murray. He's also 2-0 against Nadal there.

Anyway, point is, Nadal is not the best outdoor HC player if he's healthy. Overall, that definitely belongs to Djokovic.

 

[bullfan]

Delusional fans..... Fed had 2 great chances this year. He won't have the energy next year.

 

[Djokovic2011]

I'm actually not sure Nadal has the edge in Cincinnati. He had a pretty cushy draw there last year tbh. He got the 2013 version of Fed in the QF's who actually pushed him quite hard. Fed played well, but nowhere near some of his better years there IMO.

Then he got Berdych. We all know the story behind that. And in the final he got Isner.

Contrast that to Novak's draws. It's not even close. Of the 4 finals Djokovic has played there, he's gotten Murray in the finals twice and Federer twice, and obviously not the 2013 version.

Good points. It always makes me laugh when posters on here automatically believe you must be better than a player at a certain tournament just because you won it and the other guy hasn't yet. Personally I think 4 finals > 1 title, at least in terms of ability on that particular surface but that's just me.

 

[Bad_Knee]

Delusional fans..... Fed had 2 great chances this year. He won't have the energy next year.

He doesn't need excessive energy to play his style, unlike certain other players.

And I bet you were saying the same thing about Fed for 2014, after his 2013.

I'm sorry your guy isn't doing very well right now, but there's nothing delusional suggesting the current 2nd best players in the world can win a slam.

 

[Chico]

Nadal if healthy is still the best outdoor hardcourt player.. Clay no brainer. So Nadal could still be the easy favorite at the French, USO, and maybe at the AO. He has had some back luck in Australia the past few years with injuries

 

[Chico]

USO 2010 he had a fairly long match with Federer but to be honest I think he was just not playing with that much belief most of the year. Beating Federer was almost like his finalafter losing to him 3 years in a row, and the way he did it saving match points. Then it was like he forgot that he always beat Nadalon HC. He tried to out grind him on HC which at that time he was not good enough to do. Before he used to be more attacking. Over the next few months though he learnt to out grind him on hc and win like that.

RG 2012 did get unlucky with the match being stopped. Maybe would have
won that.

RG 2013- he threw that away by falling into the net. Got himself to blame.

USO 2013, what was unlucky about that? Not saying it wasn't, I just can't remember the circumstances.

RG 2014 - didn't see that match, what was unlucky about that?

I clearly said:
With some luck, fair draws, fair scheduling and unbiased officials.

RG 2013 goes to Pascal Maria - everything is said about his robbery already (no it is not about net cord).
RG 2014 - flu - Novak was vomiting on the court during the match. Still managed to win 1st set. Healthy Novak wins that no problem.
USO 2013 - more difficult draw, tired and quite unlucky indeed. Also RG 2013 affected this one.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

I clearly said:
With some luck, fair draws, fair scheduling and unbiased officials.

RG 2013 goes to Pascal Maria - everything is said about his robbery already (no it is not about net cord).
RG 2014 - flu - Novak was vomiting on the court during the match. Still managed to win 1st set. Healthy Novak wins that no problem.
USO 2013 - more difficult draw, tired and quite unlucky indeed. Also RG 2013 affected this one.

I guess sick Ferrer, who also took a set off Nadal, would beat him too, huh?

And how could a slam 5 months before and on a totally different surface be to blame? :lol:

 

[Towser83]

I would give Nadal the slight edge at the U.S Open since he both leads in titles 2-1 and in H2H 2-1. Djokovic is consistent there but so is Nadal. He hasn't not made the semis when he played since and including 2008.

Nadal has the edge in Cincinnati of the two.

I haven't looked at all the stats but I wouldn't be surprised from rough memory if he might in Canada too.

Djokovic probably has the edge at every other hard court venue.

In Australia Djokovic is way ahead, 4 titles to 1 and even beat Nadal there when he busted his guts in 2011, although I still think Nadal choked at the end to lose, and in part due to his mental block with Djokovic at the time which was the most severe it ever was in their matchup in favor of one player. Nonetheless it was a very high quality match from both, although I have seen both play better even there (Nadal in 2009 was definitely better there, and Djokovic in 2011 and perhaps even 2008 ).

I think Nadal in top form can beat Djokovic at most HC venues but overall Djokovic should maintain a positive H2H on that surface and win more titles. But at any HC event I could see either player winning though obviously some suit one player more than the other.

I don't think Nadal is more suited to the US Open, I just think he's taken his chances more, a bit like how Nadal has just never had much luck at Miami when really he could have won several titles there, just never worked out. In Australia I think he could have had as much sucess as at the US Open but he's just perhaps not hit the same form at that time.

The USO is the only major HC event that Nadal leads in the H2H though, Canada is 1-1 and the WTF is 2-2. Cinci is a weird one because Nadal never did great there and trails 2-0 in H2H but the one final he made he won, Djokovic made 4 and lost all of them.

Here's the comparison

Titles - Finals - H2H (Djokovic is the first number)

AO
4-1 4-2 1-0

USO
1-2 5-3 1-2

Indian Wells
3-3 4-4 2-1

Miami
3-0 5-4 3-0

Canada
3-3 3-3 1-1 (dead even! Haha)

Cinci
0-1 4-1 2-0

Shanghai/Madrid hard
2-1 2-2 0-0

Paris
2-0 2-1 1-0

WTF
3-0 3-2 2-2