how long do you give Fed before he goes into "ultra decline" mode?

[Legend of Borg]

i'm talking like he can't make the 2nd week in a slam consistently and is losing to some randoms at every major (3rd and 4th round) and is clearly a shell of his former self


he's posted some really solid results in 2015 with those two slam finals and he's made two semis out of three slams in 2016 and we're yet to see how he does at the USO

do you reckon he can hold his form until his late 30's or is he gonna hit the wall and crash and burn much sooner?

 

[Jonas78]

i'm talking like he can't make the 2nd week in a slam consistently and is losing to some randoms at every major (3rd and 4th round) and is clearly a shell of his former self


he's posted some really solid results in 2015 with those two slam finals and he's made two semis out of three slams in 2016 and we're yet to see how he does at the USO

do you reckon he can hold his form until his late 30's or is he gonna hit the wall and crash and burn much sooner?

Impossible to know, but i think he can keep a decent level at least through 2017 if he can stay away from injuries. I cant see him competing at top level at age 38.

 

[Jaitock1991]

It's already happened.

 

[tennisaddict]

Will he have a cakewalk of a draw ?

The AO draw was tough but the Wimb draw was a joke !

 

[HipRotation]

Decline isn't an established state. Players could go on, some of the best recently retired could still beat most players on tour today on a given day. It's really all about if you can handle the day to day grind of training and playing and training and playing over and over. At the moment it doesn't look good for Fed, he just can't seem to keep going for a full tournament.

I'm sure Federer thinks he can turn it around but to what end. Will it be like Agassi and finally let injury take him or choose to bow out gracefully on his own terms.

 

[Meles]

i'm talking like he can't make the 2nd week in a slam consistently and is losing to some randoms at every major (3rd and 4th round) and is clearly a shell of his former self


he's posted some really solid results in 2015 with those two slam finals and he's made two semis out of three slams in 2016 and we're yet to see how he does at the USO

do you reckon he can hold his form until his late 30's or is he gonna hit the wall and crash and burn much sooner?

3 years. Not sure when he retires. He may have enough of an ego to think he can win a slam if he's one of the top 16 seeds.

 

[GabeT]

Isn't that known as Nadal mode? (I kid, I kid)

 

[Gary Duane]

i'm talking like he can't make the 2nd week in a slam consistently and is losing to some randoms at every major (3rd and 4th round) and is clearly a shell of his former self


he's posted some really solid results in 2015 with those two slam finals and he's made two semis out of three slams in 2016 and we're yet to see how he does at the USO

do you reckon he can hold his form until his late 30's or is he gonna hit the wall and crash and burn much sooner?

Sooner...

 

[West Coast Ace]

It's already happened.

So beating Cilic, who was playing very well, after a long layoff, doesn't mean anything to you?

Another 'impossible to know' vote. I thought after he knocked the rust off in Stuttgart and Halle, he looked pretty good. Serve had pop and he was placing it. FH was good. BH and return will never be the same - he just doesn't have the reflexes.

In addition to the tennis/health aspects, there's the motivation. At some point he may just want to go home and be Dad and husband - once that happens there won't be a decline - there will be an announcement and he'll be gone. He's already said he's not doing an embarrassing 'retirement tour' like Safin.

 

[Fiero425]

It's already happened.

I echo those words! Last season he was languishing in the race for YEC around #6 before defending enough points to secure #4! This season since he's missed so many events, he's not even in the top 10 and in serious jeopardy of missing WTF in London this Nov.! ;-/

 

[VexlanderPrime]

Never? I dunno, his game seems built for longevity. He doesn't rely on movement, dominates his service games. He could play til 45 if he cared to.

 

[NGM]

The inevitable rapid decline has begun from early this year with that sad knee injury.
If he has another disappointing year in 2017 he may consider retirement.

 

[nolefam_2024]

He has most number of slam semis. 40 semis, 9 more than Connors. Anyone suggesting he can no longer reach semis would be fool of highest order.
He almost reached final in Wimbledon again.
He is still 34 and very fit. I don't see decline for at least 1 more year.

 

[tennisaddict]

I echo those words! Last season he was languishing in the race for YEC around #6 before defending enough points to secure #4! This season since he's missed so many events, he's not even in the top 10 and in serious jeopardy of missing WTF in London this Nov.! ;-/

Fed ended last year #3. He got back to #2 for a week very recently , though for a very short time.

Fed just playing 7 tournaments this year is already #9 and could move over to #3 in the race by the time USO comes.

It will just make the tour continue to look so hopeless if 35 year old Fed ends up year in top 4. LOL

 

[swizzy]

i think hewitt could have made a deep run this year

 

[Dave1982]

It's hard to see him remaining a top 4 player beyond end of 2017 but at the same time and largely based on current performance it's to see him being dislodged from that space anytime soon.

The fact he's made 2 Finals and 2 SF's in last 4 Slams he's contested indicates he's still a legitimate top 4 player....I seriously doubt we will see an ultra decline from Federer, far greater chance of him retiring before that ever happens.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

.

 

[The Green Mile]

i think hewitt could have made a deep run this year

No way. He would have lost to some journeyman in 5, no doubt.

 

[Robert F]

It seems no one is rising to the top to really challenge Djokovic, Murray and to some extent Federer.
Just the other guys in the top 10 are finally sinking allowing the new generation to float to the top instead of them breaking through.

I think Fed will stay in until the new guys become a consistent and serious threat to the top 5.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

No way. He would have lost to some journeyman in 5, no doubt.

If it was Hewitt from 2009 or so I think he could have made the semis.

 

[newpball]

Not too long!

 

[Max G.]

Right now he's playing at a mid-top-10 level. Look at his losses this year - they're mostly to guys in the top 10, or playing like it. He still mostly beats people outside the top 10.

It's hard to know obviously.

I'm going to guess mid 2017. He's going to look ok going into the next Wimbledon but will have a shock loss to somebody outside the top 10, maybe in the 4th round.

 

[Chadillac]

Its going to take someone playing good (aside from djok) to beat fed, its still a 2 man tour (thanks nadal), murray loses to both

 

[junior74]

Without any injuries, he may reach another SF at USO and play WTF. I hope he can win a Masters 1000 as a happy ending. Cincy would be nice.

It is strange to think about, but without Djokovic, he would have been #1 the past two years and won at least 4 slams. The tour is a one man show.

By this time next year it is well and truly over. He will know when it's time.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

He'll be fine thru the US and WTF, but I think decline to the level you're talking about will start at some point next year.

 

[Fedex]

i'm talking like he can't make the 2nd week in a slam consistently and is losing to some randoms at every major (3rd and 4th round) and is clearly a shell of his former self
he's posted some really solid results in 2015 with those two slam finals and he's made two semis out of three slams in 2016 and we're yet to see how he does at the USO

do you reckon he can hold his form until his late 30's or is he gonna hit the wall and crash and burn much sooner?

Stepanek just took Murray to 5 sets. How old is he so you could argue Federer still got plenty years if he wants to?

 

[adil1972]

i dont understand why federer cries like a baby when he loses in grand slam finals and semifinals,

he has everything on his resume like most slams etc

 

[Jonas78]

i dont understand why federer cries like a baby when he loses in grand slam finals and semifinals,

he has everything on his resume like most slams etc

I dont understand why crying is bad, just shows that he loves the sport. Ever seen footballplayers when they lose a SF or final?

 

[hawk eye]

Fed is still improving himself. If he keeps that up, He'll be in the top 10 for at least a few years.

 

[tennisaddict]

I am seeing this thread crop up since 2008.

We will celebrate the "10th year" anniversary soon

 

[junior74]

i dont understand why federer cries like a baby when he loses in grand slam finals and semifinals,

he has everything on his resume like most slams etc

Don't critizise what you can't understand

Bob Dylan

 

[BGod]

As long as he's in the Top 20 his decline is not absolute. Agassi didn't even play much his last season.

 

[tennis_pro]

5 minutes

 

[TupeloDanger]

Semis or better in the last four slams he's played. Only player in the ATP who can make that claim.

 

[The_18th_Slam]

I think it's already happened. He's getting by on sheer dexterity.

 

[Legendkillar]

Don't think he'll hit "ultra" levels!

 

[augustobt]

Maybe when his body ain't holding up anymore, but I think he'll hang the rackets by then.

 

[ultradr]

He still will have chance if he stays top 4 seeds. It will be very difficult, if he falls out of top 8 seeds.

 

[aj87]

The guy is super-human. I wouldn't be shocked to see him going deep in majors throughout the entire 2017 season.

 

[augustobt]

He still will have chance if he stays top 4 seeds. It will be very difficult, if he falls out of top 8 seeds.

Well, in his defense, he was the #6 seed in the 2014's AO. Semi-finals.

 

[ultradr]

well it's hard to call. it depends whether he wants or not, i would say.

older players are hanging around much longer these days.
Ivo Karlovich at 37 still pretty strong for example. he reached #18 last year I think.

 

[smalahove]

i dont understand why federer cries like a baby when he loses in grand slam finals and semifinals,

he has everything on his resume like most slams etc

With regards to the Wimby SF, imo, it's because at that moment, he realized he had the match in his hand in the 4th set and that perhaps this was his best shot at WImby #8.

 

[AngryBirds]

He still will have chance if he stays top 4 seeds. It will be very difficult, if he falls out of top 8 seeds.

Sampras was ranked 17 when he won a slam. It's not about ranking. It's about bringing your best form in the most important moment.

 

[ultradr]

Sampras was ranked 17 when he won a slam. It's not about ranking. It's about bringing your best form in the most important moment.

well, there are slight difference.

1. there were 16 seeds at Sampras' time but now 32 seeds.
2. it was still surface polarized. seeds based on overall ranking not necessarily strong on given surfaces. now it's much more surface agnostic and seeds are more ordered.

in other words
non seeds had a bit better chances at slams and more chances of upset before most of tennis history before ~2003.

seeds are more protected now.

seedings are more important now.

in fact, these are some of reasons why older top (~25) players like Federer hang around longer, IMHO.

 

[Chanwan]

i'm talking like he can't make the 2nd week in a slam consistently and is losing to some randoms at every major (3rd and 4th round) and is clearly a shell of his former self


he's posted some really solid results in 2015 with those two slam finals and he's made two semis out of three slams in 2016 and we're yet to see how he does at the USO

do you reckon he can hold his form until his late 30's or is he gonna hit the wall and crash and burn much sooner?

Depends on the body and on his motivation. If the body ain't giving in, I think he can stay pretty motivated too, provided the family stays okay with the lifestyle and the travel.
And a motivated Fed playing something resembling a full season is still top-8 or better in 2-3 years time given today's landscape imo.
Whether that's enough for him, is a different question. Perhaps he needs to believe, he can win any non-clay tournament he enters.
But perhaps he's capable of believing that until he's no longer top-8.

 

[Deleted member 735320]

Let's see how he does at the Olympics. The shorter matches 2 of 3 sets should be to his advantage as will the ever dwindling draw. If he wins and beat Novak and Andy en route great. I don't see that as likely. Right now he has to worry about too many players and playing his best day after day is a lot harder than it used to be. I think if he wins the singles gold he should just retire. If not I think he won't finish 2017 as a pro unless he surprises everyone and wins a major.