Predicting the Nationals winners 18 & over 4.5 men and women - Men's All TT Team has a shot!

[schmke]

Just posted the predictions for the 4.5 men and women.

Southern, NorCal, and PNW appear to be the class of the field for the women.

The men are more competitive, but SoCal looks to be the favorite.

What about the 4.5 men All TT team? They averaged 4.48 and in this group would be tied for the #4 team. Given anything other than one of the tougher schedules, they'd do some damage and be in the running for the semis!

 

[J011yroger]

Avengers assemble!

J

 

[CHtennis]

Just posted the predictions for the 4.5 men and women.

Southern, NorCal, and PNW appear to be the class of the field for the women.

The men are more competitive, but SoCal looks to be the favorite.

What about the 4.5 men All TT team? They averaged 4.48 and in this group would be tied for the #4 team. Given anything other than one of the tougher schedules, they'd do some damage and be in the running for the semis!

I am hoping your simulations are not that accurate so my team has a shot. Since we are the defending champs we will try to defend our title ( I am speaking for the middle west, my team won nothing last year)

 

[schmke]

I am hoping your simulations are not that accurate so my team has a shot. Since we are the defending champs we will try to defend our title ( I am speaking for the middle west, my team won nothing last year)

There are always surprises. While I list the teams most likely to make the semis, other teams still have a good shot and it is actually not likely that the exact 4 teams I identify will all make it. And your team was one of the next I would have mentioned with a 26% chance of the semis. Things are close enough, that one upset court can turn a 3-2 loss into a 3-2 win and make one of those 26% scenarios occur.

 

[J011yroger]

There are always surprises. While I list the teams most likely to make the semis, other teams still have a good shot and it is actually not likely that the exact 4 teams I identify will all make it. And your team was one of the next I would have mentioned with a 26% chance of the semis. Things are close enough, that one upset court can turn a 3-2 loss into a 3-2 win and make one of those 26% scenarios occur.

Or if their best players don't make the trip which is often the case in my experience.

J

 

[schmke]

Or if their best players don't make the trip which is often the case in my experience.

J

Yep, my simulations assume the top-10 rated players make the trip and this often isn't the case. Sometimes more go, and sometimes some top players are missing.

Perhaps I should use top-12 averages to try to better reflect the "real" rosters?

 

[J011yroger]

Yep, my simulations assume the top-10 rated players make the trip and this often isn't the case. Sometimes more go, and sometimes some top players are missing.

Perhaps I should use top-12 averages to try to better reflect the "real" rosters?

I don't think there is a good solution.

J

 

[schmke]

I don't think there is a good solution.

J

Without knowing the actual rosters that will be there or in a given match, no. Just trying to find what the best approximation is.

 

[J011yroger]

Without knowing the actual rosters that will be there or in a given match, no. Just trying to find what the best approximation is.

This is a lot of work but you could run various calcs in previous years and see which most closely approximates the actual results.

J

 

[schmke]

This is a lot of work but you could run various calcs in previous years and see which most closely approximates the actual results.

J

I could, but I try to have a life outside of simulating Nationals ...

 

[kylebarendrick]

I wonder how many captains would be able to accurately assess who their top 10 are anyway... My guess is very few.

 

[J011yroger]

I wonder how many captains would be able to accurately assess who their top 10 are anyway... My guess is very few.

Most teams I have been on have a top 3 and a hodge podge and some benchwarmers.

J

 

[CHtennis]

Here is an update from nationals. Due to weather concerns we are playing short sets to four, win by one no set tiebreaks. They are doing a seven point tiebreak instead of the normal ten point. They seem to be entering it as full scores on line though. My team won the first match 4-1.

 

[BeyondTheTape]

Here is an update from nationals. Due to weather concerns we are playing short sets to four, win by one no set tiebreaks. They are doing a seven point tiebreak instead of the normal ten point. They seem to be entering it as full scores on line though. My team won the first match 4-1.

Sorry to hear. This is not how the National Champion should be determined.

 

[schmke]

Sorry to hear. This is not how the National Champion should be determined.

Heard the same thing from others and wrote an update. This format has matches taking on average a little less than half the time as a normal scored match so in theory they could get all the round-robin in today. Not sure if that is the plan or not.

Agree that this is not how to determine a National Champ, but when you pick sites other than the desert Southwest, the chances of rain are there and this is bound to happen. Last year between Mobile and Florida, 59% of the events held there were affected by rain, either shortening of format or even not completing events and declaring co-champs. I'm sure they thought Arlington would have better weather and perhaps they do on average, but it is still not as reliable as Palm Springs or Arizona, although to be fair Phoenix looks to have thunderstorms forecast much of tomorow. But the Indian Wells forecast? Mid/upper 80s and party cloudy to sunny all weekend.

 

[schmke]

Some early upsets, not sure if the format had a role or not.

PNW beats SoCal 3-2, two of the wins in (7 point) match tie-breaks. And Eastern beats Southern 4-1, the upset a minor upset, but that score a little surprising.

 

[J011yroger]

Some early upsets, not sure if the format had a role or not.

PNW beats SoCal 3-2, two of the wins in (7 point) match tie-breaks. And Eastern beats Southern 4-1, the upset a minor upset, but that score a little surprising.

That Eastern team is already outperforming my (low) expectations.

J

 

[schmke]

That Eastern team is already outperforming my (low) expectations.

J

They hear some guy was dissing them on TT and got motivated ...

 

[J011yroger]

They hear some guy was dissing them on TT and got motivated ...

I would never, that is a really cool team of good dudes.

I wish their #1 player lived closer, we would definitely be friends.

J

 

[iNeverSlice]

That Eastern team is already outperforming my (low) expectations.

J

That Eastern team is very good

 

[J011yroger]

That Eastern team is very good

By nationals standards?

I didn't think so but I could be wrong.

J

 

[iNeverSlice]

By nationals standards?

I didn't think so but I could be wrong.

J

I don't know. I've never been to nationals.

 

[J011yroger]

I don't know. I've never been to nationals.

I don't know if it's cyclical or not where some years are much harder than others.

J

 

[schmke]

I don't know if it's cyclical or not where some years are much harder than others.

J

Eastern did pull some modest upsets in the match. We'll see if opponent was overrated or if Eastern can keep it up.

 

[J011yroger]

Eastern did pull some modest upsets in the match. We'll see if opponent was overrated or if Eastern can keep it up.

They are playing PNW now, any friends you can ask?

J

 

[J011yroger]

How are scores entered w/r/t fast 4? How will this affect DNTRP?

J

 

[schmke]

They are playing PNW now, any friends you can ask?

J

One of their singles guys is a pro at my club I've partnered in doubles with and I've been texting him. I'll ask after the match, but the scores will tell the real story.

 

[schmke]

How are scores entered w/r/t fast 4? How will this affect DNTRP?

J

They extrapolate the scores out to full scores and that is what is entered on TennisLink. The extrapolation isn't perfect, but I don't think it adds any more "noise" than using Fast 4 in the first place does.

 

[J011yroger]

They extrapolate the scores out to full scores and that is what is entered on TennisLink. The extrapolation isn't perfect, but I don't think it adds any more "noise" than using Fast 4 in the first place does.

So for example if you won 4-2 it would be entered as 6-3 or 6-4?

J

 

[schmke]

So for example if you won 4-2 it would be entered as 6-3 or 6-4?

J

I believe a Fast Four 4-2 set is entered as 6-3.

 

[J011yroger]

I believe a Fast Four 4-2 set is entered as 6-3.

Idiots!

J

 

[Saul Goode]

Watching matches—this fast 4 format is going to cause some less predictable results. If you get broken, you’re under a lot more pressure to get a quick break back.

 

[schmke]

Watching matches—this fast 4 format is going to cause some less predictable results. If you get broken, you’re under a lot more pressure to get a quick break back.

Yep, what I just wrote on a reply to a comment on Facebook.

Fast 4 is arguably better than a pro set as you can regroup, win the second set and TB, but it is awfully difficult to come back in an individual set.

And it is interesting that as I understand it there is no TB in the sets, it is just first to 4? I guess that is ok in that if every holds it will be 4-3,3-4 and the TB will decide it, but is still an interesting twist.

 

[schmke]

Idiots!

J

You'd expect/want 6-4? I suppose an argument could be made that 4-2 is a single break and if the rest were holds it would end up 6-4. But a 6-3 set may be a single break too, and 4 is twice the number of games 2 is (6 vs 3), and if someone was broken once in getting to 4-2, there is a 50% chance they'd be broken again and so not get to 6-4.

 

[Saul Goode]

Yep, what I just wrote on a reply to a comment on Facebook.

Fast 4 is arguably better than a pro set as you can regroup, win the second set and TB, but it is awfully difficult to come back in an individual set.

And it is interesting that as I understand it there is no TB in the sets, it is just first to 4? I guess that is ok in that if every holds it will be 4-3,3-4 and the TB will decide it, but is still an interesting twist.

Right, first to 4. It initially seems like a glorified pro set, but you could have a collective 4-7 score and still win. It’s too sketchy in my opinion.

 

[Saul Goode]

Curious as to else is here—would be interested in putting faces to names.

 

[J011yroger]

You'd expect/want 6-4? I suppose an argument could be made that 4-2 is a single break and if the rest were holds it would end up 6-4. But a 6-3 set may be a single break too, and 4 is twice the number of games 2 is (6 vs 3), and if someone was broken once in getting to 4-2, there is a 50% chance they'd be broken again and so not get to 6-4.

I expect 2 full sets and a super tiebreaker.

If that is not within your capability, you don't get to host nationals.

J

 

[schmke]

I expect 2 full sets and a super tiebreaker.

If that is not within your capability, you don't get to host nationals.

J

Ahhh, agree with you. I thought the "idiots" was in reference to the Fast 4 to full score extrapolation.

 

[schmke]

I expect 2 full sets and a super tiebreaker.

If that is not within your capability, you don't get to host nationals.

J

And on why they are where they are, I've obviously written and been critical about the selected sites, and I can't speak for the USTA but what I've heard is that A) locations have to bid to host Nationals and some that we think should perhaps don't, and B) desert Southwest locations are sometimes more expensive than alternatives and a lot farther trip for many and feedback from players is to go to cheaper/closer places.

Now, I wonder if players still like the cheaper/closer places when formats are shortened or events are not completed? The surveys/polls I've done have had a mix of responses on what is preferred.

 

[BeyondTheTape]

Curious as to else is here—would be interested in putting faces to names.

yoo..I was there last weekend because im a peasant 4.0. Cheers to making Nationals !

 

[J011yroger]

Ahhh, agree with you. I thought the "idiots" was in reference to the Fast 4 to full score extrapolation.

It's a common theme when I discuss the USTA.

J

 

[J011yroger]

And on why they are where they are, I've obviously written and been critical about the selected sites, and I can't speak for the USTA but what I've heard is that A) locations have to bid to host Nationals and some that we think should perhaps don't, and B) desert Southwest locations are sometimes more expensive than alternatives and a lot farther trip for many and feedback from players is to go to cheaper/closer places.

Now, I wonder if players still like the cheaper/closer places when formats are shortened or events are not completed? The surveys/polls I've done have had a mix of responses on what is preferred.

I figure they had a drunk chicken throw darts at a map of the US.

J

 

[Saul Goode]

yoo..I was there last weekend because im a peasant 4.0. Cheers to making Nationals !

I’m just here watching Mrs. Goode.

 

[Saul Goode]

I expect 2 full sets and a super tiebreaker.

If that is not within your capability, you don't get to host nationals.

J

F***in A

 

[BeyondTheTape]

Watching matches—this fast 4 format is going to cause some less predictable results. If you get broken, you’re under a lot more pressure to get a quick break back.

with the fast 4 format...with less emphasis on a complete match id look down my bench for the biggest servers. "Billy you weren't gonna play at nationals because quite frankly youre #13 on the team.. but since you hit flamethrower serves once every 6 serves, suit up."

 

[Saul Goode]

Almost without fail, the theme of each court is PTFBAA

 

[Saul Goode]

....aaand they fire cannon to tell people play is suspended.

 

[J011yroger]

Almost without fail, the theme of each court is PTFBAA

?

J

 

[Saul Goode]

?

J

Put the (friendly) ball away already

 

[J_R_B]

They solved the score problem at our sectionals by starting each set at 2-2, which I think is functionally about the same thing.