I still don't think it's time to push the Fed panic button quite yet (at least the big one).
1. Clearly, his era of dominance is over. 2004-2006 was amazing, but he couldn't go on like this forever. On this point, I don't understand why people get so down on him. That level is impossible to maintain forever. So, he's slightly past his prime, doesn't mean he can't win Slams.
2. There is precedent for this sort of down phase, namely, nearly every player who has played the game. Seriously, someone mentioned Sampras 2000-2002 slump. Think of how Agassi went so far down and came back. It happens to every top player. But, while I have no doubt that Fed will play great tennis again, and while I personally believe he will win another Slam, there is precedent for champions going through slumps and playing well again, but not winning a Slam. I never would have thought that after his dominant 1984 and and losing to Lendl in the 1985 USO final, that McEnroe would never win another Slam. He played great again, made the semis of Wimbledon as late as 1992 against a new generation of players. But, never lifted the trophy again.
3. While I think he'll rise again, it will, obviously be tough. Guys are always getting better, and loses like Simon give a lot of other guys confidence.
4. This is what really makes this situation a mystery - Fed's confidence. Confidence is an intangible - hard to get a handle on, hard to understand how it ebbs and flows. Fed still has his physical gifts, his great shots, but I'm wondering about his confidence. Yeah, the last few months have probably hurt his confidence, but it will be ineresting to see how or if he'll fully get it back. This is all mental now. And not only confidence, put patience and desire. He seems to look so annoyed now.
5. I'll judge him by Slams now. He's earned it. These losses don't matter to me in the larger sense, or to his legacy. He can lose in Canada and lose first round in Cincinatti and it won't matter. How he performs at the USO is what ultimately matters, and in Slams generally. Of course these losses matter in the smaller sense of how they affect him mentally. But from a "greatness" perspective, I don't think these losses matter than much. I actually think he should just focus on Slams like Lendl did later in his career.