Yes, Nadal-Berrettini in the SF or F.
Do you really think that? So far on this thread there seems like a consensus that we should be concentrating on Djokovic, Nadal and the "Maestro". One poster mentioned Medvedev.
I have been thinking differently about 2020. I think it is going to move in the other direction. But before I get to that, it appears that maybe you think Berrettini is perhaps the best of the young guns? If so, why? I may be underrating him.
I'll believe it when I see it. Does anyone honestly believe that anyone besides one of the big 3 (primarily Rafa or Novak) will win the AO?
My thinking is that The Holy Trinity will account for only one, maybe 2 Slams. I would also predict The Gold to Djokovic. Two or three Slams and ATP finals to the younger guys. This extension of career, or new longevity factor, is real but only goes so far. In history of men's game, only players to win real majors after 34 (Nadal's age), are Tilden, Rosewall and Federer. Can you think of anyone else? Each of these three moved lightly through the battle, almost like angels floating above the bitter earth. Rafa has already won his last Major, IMO. Age is still age. Rafa has defied the mileage and age and this courage will be an important part of his legacy. Federer is clearly over the hill but it is still conceivable he might win Wimbledon - i think not, but just possible. And by over the hill i don't mean irrelevant. You'd expect he'll manage to stay in top 8, barely.
Nole can be competitive in any of the four Slams, if not hurting or fatigued. Of the Slams, Wimbledon seems his best possibility. I predict the Gold Medal because he wants it so bad. I think that most of us see Olympic Gold as something on level of the ATP Finals, or Davis Cup from the 90s to 2018 - some posters say it is like one of the higher M1000s. But not Nole. I think i even have a 2016 quote where he puts it virtually on the level of the Slams. He has said the Gold Medal is his top priority this season. Novak will be mentally together this year, and who is a greater competitor than he?
I put Tsitsipas and Medvedev as most likely to win a Slam, along w Djokovic.
Next, pretty good chance: Dominic Thiem
Next - has most of the tools and would not be a huge surprise, but a bit of a surprise: Zverev.
Next: Fed and Rafa
Next: probably his first Slam comes in 2021: Auger-Aliassime.
Just about Anyone else this year would surprise me, except Kyrgios who is just in a class by himself. With Fed waning, Nick is the most talented player on the tour, or maybe 2nd to Novak - can't compare their games. Also, altho not very likely to happen, if Shapovalov makes the quarters and then can lock in on the target, those rocket launchers he calls ground strokes could beat anyone's game. Who could beat him if his accuracy rose just 10-15 percent during a short hot streak? Only a determined, fit and grooved Djokovic, that's who (you may say you could say this about many players - that if they get really hot they could win a Slam. I think not. It almost never works that way). Shapo over hits, but if he finds a patch when he is in the zone, i don't think anybody can out hit him - and he has better net game than most, a good-enough and improving service, and now even a bit of touch.
Melbourne: Assuming and hoping there is a tournament, I say Tsi or Mdv for favorite but Novak might just bore us to death w his eighth championship. Of course i don't mean that Novak is boring, perish the thought, only starting to get a little boring how he dominates the AO.
Roland Garros - Thiem for slight favorite. Nadal 2nd. I may think he is about spent, but then Rafa will win his
decimotercero. Stefanos and Sascha love the clay, so 3 and 5 seeds, respectively. And Djokovic is an historical top-10 or 12 clay player, so he is my 4th seed. I just think that the
terra baute is going to be brutal on 33-year old legs, given the power game they play nowadays on the dirt. And, Novak seems to struggle at RG relative to eight clay M1000s, four at the Italian Open (on the other hand, two finals losses to Nadal, and nobody, not even Nadal, could have beat the Stanimal on June 7, 2015). And, Nole did finally get over the hump. IF Djokovic wins RG this season or next, that ends the GOAT debate in my view. I just don't think he can do it. If he gets a "light draw" first four rounds . . . ???
A Djokovic championship at the French would be a huge achievement. Yet a Dominic Thiem championship makes sense.
Wimbledon - all things being equal, the Crown should go to Novak if he is fit. Folks talk so much about how Nadal's way of playing is inordinately brutal on the body - what about Djokovic's so often grinding, defense-offense, chess-like approach and his superhuman splits on the dead run? The elbow may kick up. He occasionally (increasingly it seems) suffers a bit from fatigue. It is a game of margins. Tsi certainly seems to have the game and attitude for Wimbledon, but grass is very alien to him. He needs a couple of years. Kyrgios has game for it but we know it is doubtful he is a champion. Regarding Zv, unless he is in some kind of hot streak, i think Wimbledon is too daunting yet for him, psychologically. Outside chance for Fed. He can get to the quarters easily enough, maybe the semis easily enough. At that point, a few days of Indian Summer and a little bit of luck and its NINE championships at the King of tournaments. AA was 9-3 on grass last year but he is not ready. Guess should not forget Mdv but poor on grass so far and who knows how his peculiar style will jibe with lawn tennis. Possibly great, i just don't know tennis well enough to hazard a guess. Any ideas on that? As said, should go to Djokovic.
USO - Well, Mdv of course, as favorite. I see outside chance for Thiem. Nole in the running for sure. Tsi of course. Berrettini or Shapo, anyone?
ATP Finals - Last year in London. Thiem should be motivated and confident. If he makes top eight, Karen Khachanov is a beast indoors. The surface is medium-fast and indoors. Roger and Novak have both thrived at this venue. Sascha seems comfortable at the O2, with a title to prove it, and Stefanos took to the super stadium like it was his back yard. So, there are six plausible winners: Tsi, Thiem, Zv, Nole , Fed and Khachanov, if makes the top eight, which I think he might. And Mdv makes a seventh. Point: There is a greater combination of depth and sheer excellence than anytime since 2012-13.* The current young guns are not Dimitrovs, Nishikoris or Raonices. They are not a lost generation, overrated and either lacking the will of the champion or overly beseeched by minor and moderate injuries, or both. Injuries the up-and-coming youngsters may incur from time to time. But the players I have mentioned appear to have grit and heart to go along with their inter-galatic level of athleticism and technical virtuosity.
A Note: I guess you all saw that Juan Martin pulled out of the Aussie. Broken kneecaps do not take this long, usually. I feel sad not being able to mention him as a possible contender at Flushing Meadow, Tokyo or Turin in 2nd half of season. There may not be a glorious end to this hero's grand struggle.
Do I overrate anyone? Did i leave out anyone whose championship would not be a big upset? Lots of guys moving up. Anyone particularly impress any of you as possible Slamster in 2020? Thanks.
*2012 top eight were, in order: Djokovic, Federer , Murray, Nadal, Ferrer, Berdych, del Potro, Tsonga.
2013 top eight were, in order: Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer, Murray, del Potro, Berdych, Federer, Warwinka.
). Here's a breakdown of the matchups that could happen for Nadal Djokovic:
