Uh Oh. Is Number One Ranking In Jeopardy Too?

[Dolgopolov85]

Things are finally beginning to make sense. I'm not rich enough to find out how to use positive thoughts to purify water.

So principled he either faked a covid positive test or went around breaking quarantine after testing.

 

[Beacon Hill]

I agree with you on the first point. I didn't say that there were only nine deaths. But the CDC could prove a causal link in only nine. This was a couple of weeks ago so the number might be higher now. But the point was that the number isn't likely to be close to the 10,000 and something figure reported on VAERYS, because that's all self-reported. My best guess is that it's in the hundreds. Maybe it's in the low thousands. By the way, some could be dual cause: e.g. someone who is Covid-positive but doesn't know they are takes the vaccine and the two together spiral out of control.

Reducing hospitalization is a public good, not only a benefit to the person in question, because it takes strain off the medical system. Hospitals around the world are short of beds, equipment, and now even medical staff. So, getting the vaccine to stay out of hospital is a good thing for everyone.

I don't agree that vaccines don't help at all with spread. Someone with the vaccine can carry as much viral load but that doesn't mean that they do on average. The data on Alpha and Delta were pretty clear that vaccinated people were less likely to get or transmit Covid. With Omicron that is admittedly less clear, but I haven't seen unambiguous data that show that there's no benefit at all in terms of transmissibility and some that suggest that vaccinated people are still somewhat less likely to transmit Omicron.

Please do not post stuff like this. It might lead to an intelligent discussion. And if that happens, the owners of this site will be forced to delete this thread.

 

[Beacon Hill]

So principled he either faked a covid positive test or went around breaking quarantine after testing.

A
He only broke those quarantine rules because he did not want to disappoint others. And like most people waiting for Covid test results, it's not like you are going to check your phone every day to see if the results came in. Novak's biggest flaw is he is incapable of thinking of himself before others.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

A
He only broke those quarantine rules because he did not want to disappoint others. And like most people waiting for Covid test results, it's not like you are going to check your phone every day to see if the results came in. Novak's biggest flaw is he is incapable of thinking of himself before others.

Well played, you'd have had me had I not known anyway where you were coming from.

 

[abmk]

I agree with you on the first point. I didn't say that there were only nine deaths. But the CDC could prove a causal link in only nine. This was a couple of weeks ago so the number might be higher now. But the point was that the number isn't likely to be close to the 10,000 and something figure reported on VAERYS, because that's all self-reported. My best guess is that it's in the hundreds. Maybe it's in the low thousands. By the way, some could be dual cause: e.g. someone who is Covid-positive but doesn't know they are takes the vaccine and the two together spiral out of control.

same logic applies to deaths due to COVID, which is reported to be well over half a million in US. some are just with COVID, not due to COVID-19. other bigger factors on some cases.

Name atleast 2 other vaccines where there have been as many reports of deaths. or even % wise.

Reducing hospitalization is a public good, not only a benefit to the person in question, because it takes strain off the medical system. Hospitals around the world are short of beds, equipment, and now even medical staff. So, getting the vaccine to stay out of hospital is a good thing for everyone.

If people are taking the vaccine and helps reduce hospitalizations to reduce the strain, that's good. but side-effects in this case cannot be shrugged off.

I don't agree that vaccines don't help at all with spread. Someone with the vaccine can carry as much viral load but that doesn't mean that they do on average. The data on Alpha and Delta were pretty clear that vaccinated people were less likely to get or transmit Covid. With Omicron that is admittedly less clear, but I haven't seen unambiguous data that show that there's no benefit at all in terms of transmissibility and some that suggest that vaccinated people are still somewhat less likely to transmit Omicron.

Like I said, 2 days reduction in getting well towards the end (when you are isolating anyways) isn't worth the risk of side-effects.

 

[abmk]

A
He only broke those quarantine rules because he did not want to disappoint others. And like most people waiting for Covid test results, it's not like you are going to check your phone every day to see if the results came in. Novak's biggest flaw is he is incapable of thinking of himself before others.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

same logic applies to deaths due to COVID, which is reported to be well over half a million in US. some are just with COVID, not due to COVID-19. other bigger factors on some cases.

Name atleast 2 other vaccines where there have been as many reports of deaths. or even % wise.



If people are taking the vaccine and helps reduce hospitalizations to reduce the strain, that's good. but side-effects in this case cannot be shrugged off.



Like I said, 2 days reduction in getting well towards the end (when you are isolating anyways) isn't worth the risk of side-effects.

If it reduces hospitalizations, the vaccine is worth it. But we are seeing a very small number of hospitalizations with omicron. Albeit even there the BMC commissioner claims that 95% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated people. In India, it's a bit late in the day because we really needed the vaccines pre-Delta which was too soon for most of us to get the vaccine. Had hale and hearty friends who needed oxygen to make it through during the Delta wave. A vaccine may have helped them avoid that agony.

 

[abmk]

If it reduces hospitalizations, the vaccine is worth it. But we are seeing a very small number of hospitalizations with omicron. Albeit even there the BMC commissioner claims that 95% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated people. In India, it's a bit late in the day because we really needed the vaccines pre-Delta which was too soon for most of us to get the vaccine. Had hale and hearty friends who needed oxygen to make it through during the Delta wave. A vaccine may have helped them avoid that agony.

I agree on hospitalizations front.. But my point there was about vaccines being worth it because they prevent spread - I don't agree on that.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

I agree on hospitalizations front.. But my point there was about vaccines being worth it because they prevent spread - I don't agree on that.

Yeah, especially with omicron, I don't believe they're having much of an impact at all on transmissibility. Otherwise, I shouldn't have got it from my junior(s) considering all three of us had two shots.

 

[helterskelter]

Well, in my office, two of my juniors and myself all got covid the last week within a few days of each other. It was a reinfection for one of the juniors and me and all three of us had had two shots. I don't trust Dr Fauci or any others of the powers-that-be to come out and say that vaccines are much less effective when it comes to stopping transmission of the omicron variant because they have an agenda and that is to get more and more of the vaccine-hesitant over the line. But what I have seen in my workplace - which recklessly stayed 100% open through the outbreak until the state govt forced all private offices to offer at least partial work from home again - is lots and lots of fully vaccinated people are getting covid. And it has to be omicron. We had Delta for months here and never saw covid spread like this during Delta. Though it was during Delta that we heard of an alarming number of cases of 30-40 somethings, even some 20 somethings, die of covid.

I have no doubt that Omicron is spreading rapidly in vaccinated people. I don't even think Fauci doubts that. But one of the questions we're discussing is whether the vaccines are effective at all in stopping transmission. I don't think we should conclude from the rapid spread amongst vaccinated people that the vaccines are doing nothing to stop transmission. Even a small reduction in risk per person can translate to a significantly lower overall caseload.

Of course, other behavior is also a factor. Offices staying open is not a great idea right ow.

Fauci has made many mistakes, of course. Everyone has been stumbling in the dark for much of this. For me, one of his greatest mistakes was when in about April 2020, because social distancing seemed to be working to some extent, he revised down his initial estimate of US deaths from 200,00-250,000 and said he thought the USA could stay under 60,000. I thought at the time that that public statement was asking for trouble. It's apparently an important principle of public health that officials say what they honestly believe, but his statement may have led people to relax too soon.

Delta certainly seemed to be leading to severe symptoms more often than Omicron. I think that they are now fairly confident that Omicron is less deadly.

 

[Daniel Andrade]

Seriously, I must make these lol. Chili Garlic noodles?

Michael, I never got to ask you this, are you some kind of chef?

 

[Dolgopolov85]

I have no doubt that Omicron is spreading rapidly in vaccinated people. I don't even think Fauci doubts that. But one of the questions we're discussing is whether the vaccines are effective at all in stopping transmission. I don't think we should conclude from the rapid spread amongst vaccinated people that the vaccines are doing nothing to stop transmission. Even a small reduction in risk per person can translate to a significantly lower overall caseload.

Of course, other behavior is also a factor. Offices staying open is not a great idea right ow.

Fauci has made many mistakes, of course. Everyone has been stumbling in the dark for much of this. For me, one of his greatest mistakes was when in about April 2020, because social distancing seemed to be working to some extent, he revised down his initial estimate of US deaths from 200,00-250,000 and said he thought the USA could stay under 60,000. I thought at the time that that public statement was asking for trouble. It's apparently an important principle of public health that officials say what they honestly believe, but his statement may have led people to relax too soon.

Delta certainly seemed to be leading to severe symptoms more often than Omicron. I think that they are now fairly confident that Omicron is less deadly.

He also admitted later that he played down the importance of masks early in the pandemic because the US didn't have enough inventory of them yet. That's what I find devious and not so trustworthy about him.

As for our office, with three of us laid low for a week, it was a major work disruption, nothing more achieved. But covid deniers take many shapes including the ones who never deny it and will not let you back in office without a negative RTPCR (even after you completed isolation) and yet refuse to believe that herding everyone in office increases the risk of getting it for, well, everyone.

 

[helterskelter]

same logic applies to deaths due to COVID, which is reported to be well over half a million in US. some are just with COVID, not due to COVID-19. other bigger factors on some cases.

Name atleast 2 other vaccines where there have been as many reports of deaths. or even % wise.



If people are taking the vaccine and helps reduce hospitalizations to reduce the strain, that's good. but side-effects in this case cannot be shrugged off.



Like I said, 2 days reduction in getting well towards the end (when you are isolating anyways) isn't worth the risk of side-effects.

Same logic doesn't apply to Covid deaths, or at least not in the same way, because those are not all self-reported on a public database. If anything, the Covid death counts are likely under-reported (both in the USA and globally), not over-reported. I posted three links from scientific publications that all argued that earlier this week. I will try to find them later. One argued that, when the official death count was approaching four million, the likely global death toll was 6.5 million. In the USA, for example, many poorer people died at home with no official test. Also, the official US death count is now approaching 850,000.

Shorter time with the virus is worth something because new variants arise with much more rapidity among people who have Covid for a long time. So, another public-good reason to get vaccinated is to reduce the risk of new variants.

Side effects are a serious concern for sure. But for the most part they are less dangerous than the side effects of Covid, not more, even among younger people. For example, as I posted above on this thread, Joe Rogan, who has long argued that younger people shouldn't get the vaccine because of the risk of myocarditis, admitted this week that the data show that, even for teenage boys, the risk of myocarditis from Covid is several times greater than is the risk of myocarditis from Covid vaccines.

And of course I still don't believe that Covid vaccines have no effect at all on transmission and note that even a small reduction in individual risk can lead to a significant reduction in overall case count.

 

[helterskelter]

He also admitted later that he played down the importance of masks early in the pandemic because the US didn't have enough inventory of them yet. That's what I find devious and not so trustworthy about him.

As for our office, with three of us laid low for a week, it was a major work disruption, nothing more achieved. But covid deniers take many shapes including the ones who never deny it and will not let you back in office without a negative RTPCR (even after you completed isolation) and yet refuse to believe that herding everyone in office increases the risk of getting it for, well, everyone.

I'm not here to defend Fauci, and I don't doubt that he has not only made mistakes but also has an agenda.

Sorry to hear about your workplace disruption. From what I've heard, PCRs can stay positive for a while after one has recovered from Covid, so taking a PCR is certainly not a good prerequisite for re-entry. Lateral flow would be better, but also just doctor's note of recovery after isolation. That's what many recently recovered people are doing to fly internationally, for example.

 

[Born_to_slice]

Things are finally beginning to make sense. I'm not rich enough to find out how to use positive thoughts to purify water.

Don't know anything about that and it certainly has nothing to do with covid vaccines. But it's obvious Djokovic does most things exceptionally well because he's always looking for new means to stay ahead. Don't be mad if this turns out to be a big boon for his career.

 

[abmk]

Fauci has made many mistakes, of course. Everyone has been stumbling in the dark for much of this. For me, one of his greatest mistakes was when in about April 2020, because social distancing seemed to be working to some extent, he revised down his initial estimate of US deaths from 200,00-250,000 and said he thought the USA could stay under 60,000. I thought at the time that that public statement was asking for trouble. It's apparently an important principle of public health that officials say what they honestly believe, but his statement may have led people to relax too soon.

Fauci is an utterly corrupt fraud who does the bidding of moneyed interests. Starting from HIV/AIDS in the 80s to the funding of gain of function experiment funding.

 

[helterskelter]

Fauci is an utterly corrupt fraud who does the bidding of moneyed interests. Starting from HIV/AIDS in the 80s to the funding of gain of function experiment funding.

I believe you both! Like I said to @Dolgopolov85 in a later post, I'm not here to defend Fauci.

 

[abmk]

Same logic doesn't apply to Covid deaths, or at least not in the same way, because those are not all self-reported on a public database. If anything, the Covid death counts are likely under-reported (both in the USA and globally), not over-reported. I posted three links from scientific publications that all argued that earlier this week. I will try to find them later. One argued that, when the official death count was approaching four million, the likely global death toll was 6.5 million. In the USA, for example, many poorer people died at home with no official test. Also, the official US death count is now approaching 850,000.

over-reporting/under-reporting varies from country to country I think. And also not everyone reports on VAERS.
My point remains: Name atleast 2 other vaccines where there have been as many reports of deaths. or even % wise.

Shorter time with the virus is worth something because new variants arise with much more rapidity among people who have Covid for a long time. So, another public-good reason to get vaccinated is to reduce the risk of new variants.

google ADE vaccines.

Side effects are a serious concern for sure. But for the most part they are less dangerous than the side effects of Covid, not more, even among younger people. For example, as I posted above on this thread, Joe Rogan, who has long argued that younger people shouldn't get the vaccine because of the risk of myocarditis, admitted this week that the data show that, even for teenage boys, the risk of myocarditis from Covid is several times greater than is the risk of myocarditis from Covid vaccines.

And of course I still don't believe that Covid vaccines have no effect at all on transmission and note that even a small reduction in individual risk can lead to a significant reduction in overall case count.

I'm not saying no effect. I'm saying its not significant enough to over-ride side-effects by vaccines.
And with so many breakthough cases, you have side-effects of vaccines+side-effects of COVID, instead of just side-effects of COVID.

 

[abmk]

Delta certainly seemed to be leading to severe symptoms more often than Omicron. I think that they are now fairly confident that Omicron is less deadly.

yeah, I don't think this is close. # of deaths and hospitalizations due to Delta (&Alpha) were huge. When Omicron became dominant variant in South Africa, hospitalizations actually got cut down significantly.

 

[HelenCH]

yeah, I don't think this is close. # of deaths and hospitalizations due to Delta (&Alpha) were huge. When Omicron became dominant variant in South Africa, hospitalizations actually got cut down significantly.

Median age in South Africa is 27 years, that probably played at least some role. It does seem that individual risk is lower with Omicron, but the impact on hospitals can still be huge if too many people get sick in a short time; even with much smaller percentage of them needing hospitals in absolute numbers it can be a lot. What other consequences of Omicron, the rate of Long Covid etc. is too early to know yet. In the past for many people covid didn't finish with recovery.

Serious side effects from vaccine are rare, you can have a choice between mRNA and JJ, discuss with your doctor which one is better for specific concerns. Most common side effect is a sore arm, a general flu-like symptoms, not severe. One paracetamol all it takes for them to go away then you just a little tired for a day maybe two. Not a big deal.

And generally risks of vaccine side effects are better controlled. New illness has many unknowns. Just this morning I was reading about a woman who committed suicide after 13 months of Long Covid. She was asymptomatic. It ruined her life and she couldn't take it anymore. I know someone who has had long covid after a mild illness, also in March 2020. It's not too brutal for her, but still endless tests and checks. She was a healthy 34 year old previously. Yes, one can be lucky and it can be even you, but when you look at odds, keep in mind the stakes.

 

[helterskelter]

Yes, it varies by country - USA most likely under-reporting; UK most likely over-reporting - but the global number is more likely to be underreported.

Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19

Charles Whittaker and colleagues argue that accurate mortality data are essential for a fair, just, and equitable response to pandemics and suggest how to obtain them Estimating mortality attributable to different diseases, risk factors, or events is pivotal to inform resource allocation and...

www.bmj.com

https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality [this wasn't one of the three I linked to previously]

Estimation of total and excess mortality due to COVID-19 | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Our updated modeling strategy now estimates total COVID-19 mortality, including unreported deaths due to COVID-19.

www.healthdata.org

I think that, given that even a small reduction in individual risk leads to a significant reduction in caseload overall, the effect of vaccines does counterbalance the side-effects of vaccines, and that given that the breakthrough cases tend to have less severe symptoms, it's not quite side effects of vaccine + of Covid. Anyway, weighing these risks is in part a moral question, not just a scientific one. The extent to which we are entitled to avoid personal risk for the sake of others isn't easily answered by numbers. In Novak Djokovic's case, my contention is that he isn't taking the question seriously at all, as shown by doing an interview while Covid-positive, not informing the interviewer or photographer, and taking his mask off at one point. (Remember that the point of this discussion is how we should judge Djokovic's decision not to get the vaccine).

I'm no expert in the history of vaccines but I do know that the early polio vaccines were linked to a lot of deaths. Besides, even though Covid has a relatively low fatality rate, it's also the pandemic that has killed the most people in a century other than HIV/AIDS (according to this link: https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/) so more severe vaccine side effects are in my view a necessary payoff. The side effects of the vaccine remain what this article from July said they were: no comparison to the side effects of Covid (https://www.healthline.com/health-news/vaccine-side-effects-vs-covid-19-damage-theres-no-comparison).

Thanks for the information on ADEs. I did google it and that is a concern. However, from what I read those developing the vaccines are doing their utmost to mitigate it. And the variant hunters are pretty clear that overall the larger the number of unvaccinated people, the greater the risk of virus mutation.

over-reporting/under-reporting varies from country to country I think. And also not everyone reports on VAERS.
My point remains: Name atleast 2 other vaccines where there have been as many reports of deaths. or even % wise.
google ADE vaccines.
I'm not saying no effect. I'm saying its not significant enough to over-ride side-effects by vaccines.
And with so many breakthough cases, you have side-effects of vaccines+side-effects of COVID, instead of just side-effects of COVID.

 

[helterskelter]

Median age in South Africa is 27 years, that probably played at least some role. It does seem that individual risk is lower with Omicron, but the impact on hospitals can still be huge if too many people get sick in a short time; even with much smaller percentage of them needing hospitals in absolute numbers it can be a lot. What other consequences of Omicron, the rate of Long Covid etc. is too early to know yet. In the past for many people covid didn't finish with recovery.

Serious side effects from vaccine are rare, you can have a choice between mRNA and JJ, discuss with your doctor which one is better for specific concerns. Most common side effect is a sore arm, a general flu-like symptoms, not severe. One paracetamol all it takes for them to go away then you just a little tired for a day maybe two. Not a big deal.

And generally risks of vaccine side effects are better controlled. New illness has many unknowns. Just this morning I was reading about a woman who committed suicide after 13 months of Long Covid. She was asymptomatic. It ruined her life and she couldn't take it anymore. I know someone who has had long covid after a mild illness, also in March 2020. It's not too brutal for her, but still endless tests and checks. She was a healthy 34 year old previously. Yes, one can be lucky and it can be even you, but when you look at odds, keep in mind the stakes.

@abmk Talking of side effects being flu like, I will mention that for me the side effects of my flu shot this autumn were worse than for any of my Covid shots. I had a sore arm for weeks after the flu shot. My arm was actually still slightly sore when I got the Covid booster about a month later.

Anyway, obviously one can't reason well from an n of 1, and my case is purely anecdotal, but I found it pretty interesting. I'd been expecting moderate side effects from the Covid shots, and I did have some from both the second and the third doses, but the flu one took me by surprise in how painful it was.

@HelenCH I'd been going to say that about South Africa having a young population, too.

 

[1H-Backhand]

A
He only broke those quarantine rules because he did not want to disappoint others. And like most people waiting for Covid test results, it's not like you are going to check your phone every day to see if the results came in. Novak's biggest flaw is he is incapable of thinking of himself before others.

You have got to be kidding right? So to avoid "disappointing" the journalist he intentionally risked infecting him with the virus? I am sure that journalist would have been thrilled to know that and very appreciative. How very selfless of Djokovic to do that! Wake up and smell the coffee my friend, Djokovic is the most entitled and selfish individual you'll ever see in your life.

 

[HelenCH]

Yes, it varies by country - USA most likely under-reporting; UK most likely over-reporting - but the global number is more likely to be underreported.

Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19

Charles Whittaker and colleagues argue that accurate mortality data are essential for a fair, just, and equitable response to pandemics and suggest how to obtain them Estimating mortality attributable to different diseases, risk factors, or events is pivotal to inform resource allocation and...

www.bmj.com

https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality [this wasn't one of the three I linked to previously]

Estimation of total and excess mortality due to COVID-19 | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Our updated modeling strategy now estimates total COVID-19 mortality, including unreported deaths due to COVID-19.

www.healthdata.org

I think that, given that even a small reduction in individual risk leads to a significant reduction in caseload overall, the effect of vaccines does counterbalance the side-effects of vaccines, and that given that the breakthrough cases tend to have less severe symptoms, it's not quite side effects of vaccine + of Covid. Anyway, weighing these risks is in part a moral question, not just a scientific one. The extent to which we are entitled to avoid personal risk for the sake of others isn't easily answered by numbers. In Novak Djokovic's case, my contention is that he isn't taking the question seriously at all, as shown by doing an interview while Covid-positive, not informing the interviewer or photographer, and taking his mask off at one point. (Remember that the point of this discussion is how we should judge Djokovic's decision not to get the vaccine).

I'm no expert in the history of vaccines but I do know that the early polio vaccines were linked to a lot of deaths. Besides, even though Covid has a relatively low fatality rate, it's also the pandemic that has killed the most people in a century other than HIV/AIDS (according to this link: https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/) so more severe vaccine side effects are in my view a necessary payoff. The side effects of the vaccine remain what this article from July said they were: no comparison to the side effects of Covid (https://www.healthline.com/health-news/vaccine-side-effects-vs-covid-19-damage-theres-no-comparison).

Thanks for the information on ADEs. I did google it and that is a concern. However, from what I read those developing the vaccines are doing their utmost to mitigate it. And the variant hunters are pretty clear that overall the larger the number of unvaccinated people, the greater the risk of virus mutation.

I understandd that ADE doesn't appear to be an issue with Covid vaccines. If it were, vaccinated people would have more severe infections. So far this hasn't been observed. So while ADE is something that exists, it't not very likely to be the problem here. Looks like just another case you were talking above: underestimating risks of disease and overestimating risks of vaccines. In this case applying a general possible problem to a specific vaccine.

 

[HelenCH]

@abmk Talking of side effects being flu like, I will mention that for me the side effects of my flu shot this autumn were worse than for any of my Covid shots. I had a sore arm for weeks after the flu shot. My arm was actually still slightly sore when I got the Covid booster about a month later.

Anyway, obviously one can't reason well from an n of 1, and my case is purely anecdotal, but I found it pretty interesting. I'd been expecting moderate side effects from the Covid shots, and I did have some from both the second and the third doses, but the flu one took me by surprise in how painful it was.

@HelenCH I'd been going to say that about South Africa having a young population, too.

After booster my arm was more sore too. But after my first two shots I headed to play tennis, and worked my arm, it probably helped to reduce pain that I later developed, it was barely uncomfortable rather than painful. After a booster my arm started hurting the same day in late afternoon, next day it was really sore and stayed sore for another day.

 

[Intensidad]

I agree on hospitalizations front.. But my point there was about vaccines being worth it because they prevent spread - I don't agree on that.

With omicron, no. But there is lots of data indicating that transmission among vaccinated people with previous variants was significantly lower.

Likely, it's precisely because of low levels of vaccination among certain populations (this isn't necessarily everyone's fault, as some countries could not get their hands on vaccines) that the virus has opportunities to mutate into something like omicron, though. Will mass vaccination stop all transmission or viral mutation and the emergence of new variants? No, of course not. Does it significantly decrease the potential number of mutation events? Yes.

A nightmare scenario is a variant as transmissable as omicron and as deadly as Delta. Vaccination decreases the likelihood that a variant will have the chance to emerge.

That said, I think the long-term trend for novel viruses that cause pandemics is toward increased transmissibility and decreased severity, but I don't think we're at that stage yet.

 

[TripleATeam]

With Medvedev and Zverev the likely winners of this AO, Djokovic's #1 ranking looks like it's done for.

Little chance he ever gets it back, and if he does, it'll be after next year's AO (assuming he plays).

 

[helterskelter]

I understandd that ADE doesn't appear to be an issue with Covid vaccines. If it were, vaccinated people would have more severe infections. So far this hasn't been observed. So while ADE is something that exists, it't not very likely to be the problem here. Looks like just another case you were talking above: underestimating risks of disease and overestimating risks of vaccines. In this case applying a general possible problem to a specific vaccine.

On the relative risks of the two, here are the numbers in the USA:

Covid deaths: 850,434. [Yikes, I didn't realize that the USA had crossed 850k. I thought it was still around the low 840s]. Source: Johns Hopkins. CDC has it at 838,339.

Vaccine deaths: 11,225 reported to Vaerys [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html]

Even if we were to take the raw numbers at their word - we shouldn't, for reasons I'll come to - we'd still have to conclude that the risk of death from Covid is about 75 times higher than is the risk of death from the vaccine.

But for at least two reasons, we shouldn't take those raw numbers at their word.

1) More people have received the vaccine than have had Covid. Johns Hopkins' case count for the USA is 65,517,320 cases of Covid, whereas about 207,000,000 people in the USA are fully vaccinated. So, the risk of death from the vaccine would be 11,225/207,000,000 (about a 0.005% fatality rate), whereas the risk of death from Covid would be 850,434/65,517,320 (about a 1.3% fatality rate) if both numbers were accurate. Of course, Covid case counts are almost certainly higher than the 65.5 million reported, but they are probably not close to the 207 million number that has been vaccinated).

2) The death count for Covid is probably under-exaggerated in the USA, both because of states such as Florida deliberately under-reporting cases and because lack of access to healthcare means that many Americans have died of Covid at home without a positive Covid test. We know this because of a sharp uptick in people dying at home for unexplained causes during the pandemic. While not all of these deaths are Covid ones, it's likely that many are. On the other hand, it's likely that only a small percentage of the 11,225 deaths reported to Vaerys were caused by the vaccine, because the FDA requires that all deaths that follow the vaccine are reported to VAERYS even when the cause of death is unknown. Given overall mortality rates, a fairly sizable number of deaths following any event - taking a shower, crossing the road, going for a jog - are inevitable. It is possible that some of the Covid deaths were also really from other causes, but the proportion is likely to be far smaller, and these are offset by the Covid deaths that are unreported.

@HelenCH I know that you know all this!

 

[aliceinpains]

Australia is now a totalitarian state. No need to travel there anymore.

 

[abmk]

Yes, it varies by country - USA most likely under-reporting; UK most likely over-reporting - but the global number is more likely to be underreported.

Under-reporting of deaths limits our understanding of true burden of covid-19

Charles Whittaker and colleagues argue that accurate mortality data are essential for a fair, just, and equitable response to pandemics and suggest how to obtain them Estimating mortality attributable to different diseases, risk factors, or events is pivotal to inform resource allocation and...

www.bmj.com

https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality [this wasn't one of the three I linked to previously]

Estimation of total and excess mortality due to COVID-19 | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Our updated modeling strategy now estimates total COVID-19 mortality, including unreported deaths due to COVID-19.

www.healthdata.org

I think that, given that even a small reduction in individual risk leads to a significant reduction in caseload overall, the effect of vaccines does counterbalance the side-effects of vaccines, and that given that the breakthrough cases tend to have less severe symptoms, it's not quite side effects of vaccine + of Covid. Anyway, weighing these risks is in part a moral question, not just a scientific one. The extent to which we are entitled to avoid personal risk for the sake of others isn't easily answered by numbers. In Novak Djokovic's case, my contention is that he isn't taking the question seriously at all, as shown by doing an interview while Covid-positive, not informing the interviewer or photographer, and taking his mask off at one point. (Remember that the point of this discussion is how we should judge Djokovic's decision not to get the vaccine).

yeah, except I don't think Djokovic tested positive. It was a lie to try to get into AO.

I'm no expert in the history of vaccines but I do know that the early polio vaccines were linked to a lot of deaths. Besides, even though Covid has a relatively low fatality rate, it's also the pandemic that has killed the most people in a century other than HIV/AIDS (according to this link: https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/) so more severe vaccine side effects are in my view a necessary payoff. The side effects of the vaccine remain what this article from July said they were: no comparison to the side effects of Covid (https://www.healthline.com/health-news/vaccine-side-effects-vs-covid-19-damage-theres-no-comparison).

Thanks for the information on ADEs. I did google it and that is a concern. However, from what I read those developing the vaccines are doing their utmost to mitigate it. And the variant hunters are pretty clear that overall the larger the number of unvaccinated people, the greater the risk of virus mutation.

except I think the focus is too much on vaccines here. There should be more focus on early treatments, fitness improvement, vitamins, zinc etc.

The utterly disgraceful demonization of Ivermectin in US has cost people dearly for instance.

 

[kishnabe]

If Medvedev wins AO, he would be only 80 points away from #1 Ranking.

Meddy can do what Roger did in 2018, Vulcher Rotterdam for #1.

 

[abmk]

On the relative risks of the two, here are the numbers in the USA:

Covid deaths: 850,434. [Yikes, I didn't realize that the USA had crossed 850k. I thought it was still around the low 840s]. Source: Johns Hopkins. CDC has it at 838,339.

Vaccine deaths: 11,225 reported to Vaerys [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html]

Even if we were to take the raw numbers at their word - we shouldn't, for reasons I'll come to - we'd still have to conclude that the risk of death from Covid is about 75 times higher than is the risk of death from the vaccine.

But for at least two reasons, we shouldn't take those raw numbers at their word.

1) More people have received the vaccine than have had Covid. Johns Hopkins' case count for the USA is 65,517,320 cases of Covid, whereas about 207,000,000 people in the USA are fully vaccinated. So, the risk of death from the vaccine would be 11,225/207,000,000 (about a 0.005% fatality rate), whereas the risk of death from Covid would be 850,434/65,517,320 (about a 1.3% fatality rate) if both numbers were accurate. Of course, Covid case counts are almost certainly higher than the 65.5 million reported, but they are probably not close to the 207 million number that has been vaccinated).

2) The death count for Covid is probably under-exaggerated in the USA, both because of states such as Florida deliberately under-reporting cases and because lack of access to healthcare means that many Americans have died of Covid at home without a positive Covid test. We know this because of a sharp uptick in people dying at home for unexplained causes during the pandemic. While not all of these deaths are Covid ones, it's likely that many are. On the other hand, it's likely that only a small percentage of the 11,225 deaths reported to Vaerys were caused by the vaccine, because the FDA requires that all deaths that follow the vaccine are reported to VAERYS even when the cause of death is unknown. Given overall mortality rates, a fairly sizable number of deaths following any event - taking a shower, crossing the road, going for a jog - are inevitable. It is possible that some of the Covid deaths were also really from other causes, but the proportion is likely to be far smaller, and these are offset by the Covid deaths that are unreported.

@HelenCH I know that you know all this!

that VAERS data you have is outdated.

Current count 21,745. There's under-reporting there.

Red Boxes Page - OpenVAERS

openvaers.com

Also you have dying due to covid-19 and dying with covid-19 (incidental)
Numbers in US have been added up for one.


Also there's no way that mortality rate due to COVID-19 is that high.
its probably in the 0.1-0.5% range everywhere. Check the antibody studies done before vaccines - serosurveys.

Also one should be looking at the age factor, comorbidities factor.
For younger, healthy people, risk from COVID-19 is far lesser than older people (>60 and especially above 70) and those with comorbidities.

 

[abmk]

Median age in South Africa is 27 years, that probably played at least some role. It does seem that individual risk is lower with Omicron, but the impact on hospitals can still be huge if too many people get sick in a short time; even with much smaller percentage of them needing hospitals in absolute numbers it can be a lot. What other consequences of Omicron, the rate of Long Covid etc. is too early to know yet. In the past for many people covid didn't finish with recovery.

Serious side effects from vaccine are rare, you can have a choice between mRNA and JJ, discuss with your doctor which one is better for specific concerns. Most common side effect is a sore arm, a general flu-like symptoms, not severe. One paracetamol all it takes for them to go away then you just a little tired for a day maybe two. Not a big deal.

And generally risks of vaccine side effects are better controlled. New illness has many unknowns. Just this morning I was reading about a woman who committed suicide after 13 months of Long Covid. She was asymptomatic. It ruined her life and she couldn't take it anymore. I know someone who has had long covid after a mild illness, also in March 2020. It's not too brutal for her, but still endless tests and checks. She was a healthy 34 year old previously. Yes, one can be lucky and it can be even you, but when you look at odds, keep in mind the stakes.

serious side-effects from vaccine are small, but not negligible. When you compare with other vaccines, much higher.
Compared to getting COVID-19, obviously risk with vaccine is much lesser, but one would expect significantly lesser side-effects with the COVID-19 vaccines than what we're seeing.

 

[helterskelter]

yeah, except I don't think Djokovic tested positive. It was a lie to try to get into AO.

except I think the focus is too much on vaccines here. There should be more focus on early treatments, fitness improvement, vitamins, zinc etc.

The utterly disgraceful demonization of Ivermectin in US has cost people dearly for instance.

Agree on Djokovic - he probably faked the test. But if that absolves him on the Covid grounds, it raises a whole different set of ethical issues.

I'm no medical expert, but I agree that vaccines on their own are not the solution. It should be vaccines+, where the + also involves more focus on behavioral change such as masking, testing, isolating after exposure or positive test, etc. No doubt a broader range of treatments, too.

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

If Djokovic gets kicked out of the AO, one of his advisors needs to sit him down and tell him, “For the love of god, just get the vaccine.”

actually, delete the first clause of that sentence.

No-vax with such global influence that he is single handedly removing the need for subordinate clauses. GOAT.

Edit: LOL it's censored now.

 

[helterskelter]

***** with such global influence that he is single handedly removing the need for subordinate clauses. GOAT.

What is "Novak" really a banned word now? How about Novaxx?

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

What is "Novak" really a banned word now? How about Novaxx?

Huh, my 'Novaxx' was censored up to the second 'x', but I DID bolden the second x to highlight the edit. That might have been the divider needed to censor the first part.

 

[sportsfan1]

Djokovic senior to a 35+ Fed "just go man, go take care of the kids, do something else. No point hanging around".

For Djokovic to take the vaxn, his pr team needs to sit with the whole family and sort everyone out. Tall order given Mrs Djokovic quotes theories about 5g covid and all that.

If Djokovic gets kicked out of the AO, one of his advisors needs to sit him down and tell him, “For the love of god, just get the vaccine.”

actually, delete the first clause of that sentence.

His advisors have already made the situation clear to him in the past and Djokovic is capable of understanding all this on his own.

This is what he wants. His PR team, legal team and everyone else are all irrelevant. He's the captain of the ship and he's the one putting them into difficult situations, not the other way around.

 

[I Am Finnish]

Zed will gain his rightful position in the pantheon:

It's my f.cking time


#TeamZverev

 

[worldcitizen]

Now that Novak is not playing -- how is the ranking situation? I am confused that Novak's rankings breakdown on ATP website shows Jan 31 as the drop date for his 2000 points, where Med's show Feb 21. Would Novak then lose 2000 on Jan 31? I saw above @ItalianFan mention something about 2020 / 2021 points. Would Novak's 2000 points from 2020 get replaced by 2000 points from 2021 on Jan 31?

 

[MichaelNadal]

Michael, I never got to ask you this, are you some kind of chef?

Huge huge fan of cooking. Dream was to have a restaurant or food truck, life has kinda sidetracked me, but I will say Im a pretty good cook. My roommate probably thinks I'm a chef lol

 

[Beacon Hill]

You have got to be kidding right? So to avoid "disappointing" the journalist he intentionally risked infecting him with the virus? I am sure that journalist would have been thrilled to know that and very appreciative. How very selfless of Djokovic to do that! Wake up and smell the coffee my friend, Djokovic is the most entitled and selfish individual you'll ever see in your life.

The journalist would obviously have known that if he got Covid from Djokovic, Novak would easily be able to cure it with just a few positive thoughts.

 

[Beacon Hill]

Don't know anything about that and it certainly has nothing to do with covid vaccines. But it's obvious Djokovic does most things exceptionally well because he's always looking for new means to stay ahead. Don't be mad if this turns out to be a big boon for his career.

That Djokovic believes in purifying water with positive thoughts, has a wife who believes Covid is caused by 5G towers, and has parents who compare him to Christ, gives a good insight into his reasoning for being an anti-vaxxer.

 

[Subway Tennis]

How powerful are local or state mandates in regard to vaccination in US, and can they hold up even if someone is let into the US?

Only asking because i would have thought the local Indian Wells / Palm Springs community would have a very strict view on vaccination that may affect Djokovic's ability to play even if he gets passage into US?

The point may be moot as Djok is obviously not majoring in masters any more, but I'm still interested in how that works legally. Anyone know?

 

[Beacon Hill]

How powerful are local or state mandates in regard to vaccination in US, and can they hold up even if someone is let into the US?

Only asking because i would have thought the local Indian Wells / Palm Springs community would have a very strict view on vaccination that may affect Djokovic's ability to play even if he gets passage into US?

The point may be moot as Djok is obviously not majoring in masters any more, but I'm still interested in how that works legally. Anyone know?

State, county and local mandates vary dramatically. One jurisdiction can have full stadiums, while others limit attendance. Same goes for vaccination and mask requirements. Even the different adjacent desert communities have different rules than one another.

 

[Born_to_slice]

That Djokovic believes in purifying water with positive thoughts, has a wife who believes Covid is caused by 5G towers, and has parents who compare him to Christ, gives a good insight into his reasoning for being an anti-vaxxer.

5G is terrible for people tho.

 

[1H-Backhand]

The journalist would obviously have known that if he got Covid from Djokovic, Novak would easily be able to cure it with just a few positive thoughts.

Ah ok. That make sense now. You are either full of s*** or just trolling.

 

[thrust]

With Medvedev and Zverev the likely winners of this AO, Djokovic's #1 ranking looks like it's done for.

Little chance he ever gets it back, and if he does, it'll be after next year's AO (assuming he plays).

I think that was bound to happen sooner or a bit later even if Novak either won or got to the late stages of this AO. His main interest now should be to win slams and masters, not rankings. Unless he gets vaccinated soon, he just as well retire or sit out this year as it seems likely slams and masters will require all players to be vaccinated, in order to compete.

 

[Beacon Hill]

5G is terrible for people tho.

Yes it is, because it enables improved transmission of online conspiracy theories and other crackpot ideas.

 

[Born_to_slice]

Yes it is, because it enables improved transmission of online conspiracy theories and other crackpot ideas.

Blah, blah