Fed stats at AO: 2016 vs. 2017

falstaff78 · Jan 22, 2017

These stats give a rough sense of how Federer is doing at this year's AO compared to last year. Stats below compare Federer in rounds 1-4 of 2017 AO vs. rounds 1-4 of 2016 AO.

His opponents this year have been substantially stronger. As measured by their hard court form against mid level tour players. Against these stronger opponents, he has put up slightly worse (but still decent) numbers.

In some areas he has been better. For example, he is:

running less per point (8.6m vs. 9.7m)
having more success at the net (74% vs. 67% on same frequency of approach)
playing cleaner more aggressive tennis (W-UE differential of +76 vs. +36)
being more clutch on break points (+14% relative to other return points, vs. -5% last year)

If he wins his QF I will post a comparison of Fed through 5 rounds in 2016 and 2017. I'll also do previews of the semi-finals based on these stats.

Enjoy.

Gary Duane · Jan 22, 2017

I always like your stats.

Some observations from just having finished watching the last match:

I went to bed before seeing the last set. It was 6 AM, and I had to get sleep. So I just watched the final set.

You can mostly throw out most of these stats because this year is wildly different.

Fed is famous for beating lower ranked players he is supposed to beat. His biggest obstacle through 4 rounds last year was Dimitrov, and Dimitrov was not threatening anyone last year. He didn't face Berdych until the QF, and he faced no one with a Djokovic-type game until he got killed by Novak in the SF.

So in spite of the stats I would rate Fed's play this year as much better. Nishikori is one of the players most dangerous to him because he does not play as well against baseliners of that sort. The fact that he is running less per point and his greater aggression is key. I think he has an outside chance of winning this now.

I will be surprised if he does not crush Zverev, and then we should look at stats again.

Krish872007 · Jan 22, 2017

In my mind, the most encouraging stats would be the Winners & Gross Winners, Metres Run per Point, the Ace Count and the BP Clutchness.

He's looking to be even more aggressive this year (really turned it up in R3 and R4), and the faster balls are helping him more in this regard. It's also good that he's having to do less "work" per point to conserve energy and try to blitz his opponents.
The other keys are to serve well and to take as many chances as possible, which he appears to be doing well in as well. Got broken a few too many times, but that can be rectified.

Beacon Hill · Jan 22, 2017

Thanks very much for these great stats. Very refreshing to have someone begin a thread with a reasoned analysis and supporting documentation, rather than another Who is the GOAT thread.

falstaff78 · Jan 22, 2017

Gary Duane said:
You can mostly throw out most of these stats because this year is wildly different

agreed. last year's opponents were losing 32% of hard court matches vs. mid level ATP pros. this year's opponents are only losing 22%. that's a whole different kettle of fish.

fun exercise nonetheless.

Gary Duane said:
I will be surprised if he does not crush Zverev, and then we should look at stats again.

dropping from 16th seed to 17th seed brings the pain one round earlier. this zverev match nullifies that effect. it is effectively a first/second round match which Fed will play in the fifth round.

falstaff78 · Jan 22, 2017

Krish872007 said:
In my mind, the most encouraging stats would be the Winners & Gross Winners, Metres Run per Point, the Ace Count and the BP Clutchness.

He's looking to be even more aggressive this year (really turned it up in R3 and R4), and the faster balls are helping him more in this regard. It's also good that he's having to do less "work" per point to conserve energy and try to blitz his opponents.

agreed. I could sense a certain purpose in his play. I was wondering if it would show up in the stats and it did.

Krish872007 said:
Got broken a few too many times, but that can be rectified.

the numbers would suggest that overall service performance is similiar. but this year he is having more shockers

in both years, he's only losing 26-28% of srv pts, and only offering BPs in 13-14% of service games
when he does offer BPs, this year he is offering 2 / game vs. 1 / game last year.
as a result, when offering BPs, Fed is getting broken 70% of the time, vs. 43% last year.
thus, he is dropping 9% of service games vs. only 5% last year

falstaff78 · Jan 22, 2017

Beacon Hill said:
Thanks very much for these great stats. Very refreshing to have someone begin a thread with a reasoned analysis and supporting documentation, rather than another Who is the GOAT thread.

cheers mate.

Joseph L. Barrow · Jan 22, 2017

This isn't a true apples-to-apples comparison, because Federer has played drastically tougher competition in the first four rounds this year due to his drop in seeding.

Gut Check · Jan 22, 2017

Joseph L. Barrow said:
This isn't a true apples-to-apples comparison, because Federer has played drastically tougher competition in the first four rounds this year due to his drop in seeding.

As explained clearly by the OP in their first post.

TheMaestro1990 · Jan 22, 2017

Wonderful work, looking forward to the next one after he hopefully beats Zverev in the QF.

falstaff78 · Jan 22, 2017

Gut Check said:
As explained clearly by the OP in their first post.

yeah thanks. elaborated a little more in a subsequent post. opponents' win % of 78% in 2017 may seem similiar to opponents' win % of 68% in 2016. but it's really not. you have to be a LOT better to go from winning 68% of matches to 78%.

falstaff78 · Jan 22, 2017

TheMaestro1990 said:
Wonderful work, looking forward to the next one after he hopefully beats Zverev in the QF.

thanks. will be interesting to see meters / point for that match vs. nishikori match lol.

Sysyphus · Jan 26, 2017

@falstaff78 will there be any stat thoughts going into the final for Rogi? Catch the match today?

falstaff78 · Jan 26, 2017

Sysyphus said:
@falstaff78 will there be any stat thoughts going into the final for Rogi? Catch the match today?

Yes sir. Caught as much of it as I could. Took my kid to his art class which saved me from the torture of watching the fifth set.

I am working on a stats comparison of Rafa vs Grigor. And will do the same for the two finalists.

I could do a fed 17 vs fed 16 through QFs, but that seems moot now that he's in to the final....

mikeeeee · Jan 26, 2017

Interesting that his net approach and first serve % are exactly the same even though he's played 200 more points this year.

KINGROGER · Jan 26, 2017

I don't think he's reached a level as high as the 16 Goffin match yet this year.

smoledman · Jan 26, 2017

KINGROGER said:
I don't think he's reached a level as high as the 16 Goffin match yet this year.

I thought his performance against Kei was better considering the opponent. Goffin is frankly a cupcake for Fed.

KINGROGER · Jan 26, 2017

smoledman said:
I thought his performance against Kei was better considering the opponent. Goffin is frankly a cupcake for Fed.

Higher level opposition but not as good ground strikes penetration and all court virtuoso maestro game.

Fed stats at AO: 2016 vs. 2017

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