Is Thiem the second best clay courter in the world right now?

Who is the second best clay courter RIGHT NOW

  • Clayray (sleeping dragon)

    Votes: 2 3.9%
  • Djokovic (meditating dragon)

    Votes: 4 7.8%
  • Thiem (overworked dragon)

    Votes: 21 41.2%
  • Stan (animalistic dragon)

    Votes: 2 3.9%
  • Fed (vacationing dragon)

    Votes: 13 25.5%
  • Nadal (trick question/Mury GOAT)

    Votes: 1 2.0%
  • Goffin (mild-mannered dragon)

    Votes: 8 15.7%

  • Total voters
    51

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
A certain Sampras aficionado who shall not be named would say that today's clay field is full of Mugs.


We all know now that Rafa has reclaimed his throne as King of Clay, but who would you say is second best RIGHT NOW?

The gap between 1 and 2 on clay seems as large as it has been in years.
 

Checkmate

Legend
YAYmRpj.jpg
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Goffin is a very dangerous player, but his stats are grossly inferior to Thiem in 2017.

Thiem is up for the year through today to 42.1% return points won up from 40.0% in 2016. On serve Thiem is up to 66.0% from 65.4% last year. Total points won is 54.1% up from 52.7% for 2016. To put 54.1% in perspective, Roger Federer is 53.6% points won on clay for his career and Novak Djokovic is 54.0%. They are 2nd and 3rd all time behind Nadal at 56.0%.:eek: This kind of level is easily good enough to win slams, but with prime Nadal back on the loose in 2017 Thiem likely would need help from the field in disposing of Nadal.

Thiem is very, very dangerous even to Nadal because of his first serve points won. On average Thiem is 73.0% first serve points won. Federer is the king of this stat among successful clay court players with 74.5%. Kuerten was 73.8%. What makes Thiem extra dangerous is that rather than be at 60% first serves in or 55% first serves for Kuerten, Thiem averages more first serves in play at 63% so far in 2017. Thiem just had matches with 73% and a whopping 84% first serve rate. If he does that near the end of a tournament Thiem would be able to challenge prime Nadal.:eek: Serves win slams because a strong serve allows a player to get efficiently through the draw. So far in 2017, Thiem has been straight setting most of his opponents which will allow him to be his very best deep into tournaments.:D
 
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Waspsting

Hall of Fame
A certain Sampras aficionado who shall not be named would say that today's clay field is full of Mugs.

Sampras is still the best player in the world on clay... your biased against him just because he's been retired for 15 years :)


We all know now that Rafa has reclaimed his throne as King of Clay, but who would you say is second best RIGHT NOW?

.

I'll go with Vacationing Mug Federer... but only because your biased poll doesn't have Pete's Retired Dragon in it
 

WhiskeyEE

G.O.A.T.
He just had to save 5 match points against Dimitrov (his worst surface). And I thought Dimitrov proved to be the more talented and athletic player, just mentally weaker. I don't think there is a 2nd best clay courter right now except maybe Slamwrinka.
 

Feather

Legend
Goffin is a very dangerous player, but his stats are grossly inferior to Thiem in 2017.

Thiem is up for the year through today to 42.1% return points won up from 40.0% in 2016. On serve Thiem is up to 66.0% from 65.4% last year. Total points won is 54.1% up from 52.7% for 2016. To put 54.1% in perspective, Roger Federer is 53.6% points won on clay for his career and Novak Djokovic is 54.0%. They are 2nd and 3rd all time behind Nadal at 56.0%.:eek: This kind of level is easily good enough to win slams, but with prime Nadal back on the loose in 2017 Thiem likely would need help from the field in disposing of Nadal.

Thiem is very, very dangerous even to Nadal because of his first serve points won. On average Thiem is 73.0% first serve points won. Federer is the king of this stat among successful clay court players with 74.5%. Kuerten was 73.8%. What makes Thiem extra dangerous is that rather than be at 60% first serves in or 55% first serves for Kuerten, Thiem averages more first serves in play at 63% so far in 2017. Thiem just had matches with 73% and a whopping 84% first serve rate. If he does that near the end of a tournament Thiem would be able to challenge prime Nadal.:eek: Serves win slams because a strong serve allows a player to get efficiently through the draw. So far in 2017, Thiem has been straight setting most of his opponents which will allow him to be his very best deep into tournaments.:D

Will you ever realize that matches are played on Tennis courts but not on excel sheets with stats?
 
A certain Sampras aficionado who shall not be named would say that today's clay field is full of Mugs.


We all know now that Rafa has reclaimed his throne as King of Clay, but who would you say is second best RIGHT NOW?

The gap between 1 and 2 on clay seems as large as it has been in years.

Goffin is the clear number 2, imho
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
A certain Sampras aficionado who shall not be named would say that today's clay field is full of Mugs.


We all know now that Rafa has reclaimed his throne as King of Clay, but who would you say is second best RIGHT NOW?

The gap between 1 and 2 on clay seems as large as it has been in years.
Thiem in an off year for Nadal might well be #1 on clay this year. No one is giving Nadal full credit this year, which has amazed me. I said earlier it is 2013 all over again, but even if he slips at Rome, if he wins RG he will end the clay seaons with one loss. So either one loss or none, with game% and point% right through the roof.

Thiem is close to the top level of Fed and Djokovic in other years, when they also ran into Nadal playing out of his mind. And he's playing on the same level as Djokovic last year.

The reason there is such a huge gap between #1 and #2 is that Nadal turned back into the monster this year he used to be. If anything this should make people think again about what Fed did this year, beating him three times on HCs.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Will you ever realize that matches are played on Tennis courts but not on excel sheets with stats?

@Meles
I've told everyone BEFORE the clay season that the two people two watch this year on clay are Nadal and Thiem.

And I told people most likely it is going to be 2013 all over again for Nadal, on clay, and in fact he has been better so far.

I disagree with Meles a lot about a lot of things, but he's right on the money re Thiem this year. Doesn't mean he will win tomorrow, or at Rome, or at RG. But his chances in the last two big clay tournies are as high as anyone else except the 10,000 pound elephant in the room.

Who else do you expect to steal the last two finals from Nadal on clay?

Murray?

Djokovic?

Wawrinka?

Do you realize that Djokovic was, at his best, only playing a bit better than Thiem last year on clay? And that was good enough to win him RG?
 
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guitarra

Professional
With Fed checking out of the clay season yes Dominic is now the second best clay player on the planet. And I'm hoping for one more step in the nearest future. Unfortunately today it's not very likely, Rafa is still ahead and terrible Madrid scheduling will not help either.
 

ibbi

G.O.A.T.
Based on form it is clearly either him or Goffin. I would probably go with Goffin, to be honest. Goffin is 8-3 this clay court season with 2 losses to Rafa. Thiem has the slightly better record of 9-2, with one of those losses being to Rafa, and the other being against... Goffin! Thiem doesn't have the oddity loss to Khachanov, but Goffin has the victory over Thiem. It's splitting hairs, but I'd give the edge to Goff. Hope they go head to head in Rome/Paris. The two of them could put on a hell of a semi final in Roland Garros if they got the chance.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Based on form it is clearly either him or Goffin. I would probably go with Goffin, to be honest. Goffin is 8-3 this clay court season with 2 losses to Rafa. Thiem has the slightly better record of 9-2, with one of those losses being to Rafa, and the other being against... Goffin! Thiem doesn't have the oddity loss to Khachanov, but Goffin has the victory over Thiem. It's splitting hairs, but I'd give the edge to Goff. Hope they go head to head in Rome/Paris. The two of them could put on a hell of a semi final in Roland Garros if they got the chance.
But Goffin is so weak in serving, and in this one way a lot like Coria, who of course was on another level re defending. I have to go with the stronger server, and Thiem has more time to improve...
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
Probably No.2 (tied with Goffin?). Looked decent in Barcelona and has been playing even better in Madrid after coming through the Dimitrov match.

Goffin is either joint 2nd or 3rd on my list. The rest of the field is a bit up and down. Novak & Murray are far from their best, Wawrinka has just sucked badly. Maybe tweener king Cuevas at No. 4, Ramos-Vinolas at 5?
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
Goffin is a very dangerous player, but his stats are grossly inferior to Thiem in 2017.

Thiem is up for the year through today to 42.1% return points won up from 40.0% in 2016. On serve Thiem is up to 66.0% from 65.4% last year. Total points won is 54.1% up from 52.7% for 2016. To put 54.1% in perspective, Roger Federer is 53.6% points won on clay for his career and Novak Djokovic is 54.0%. They are 2nd and 3rd all time behind Nadal at 56.0%.:eek: This kind of level is easily good enough to win slams, but with prime Nadal back on the loose in 2017 Thiem likely would need help from the field in disposing of Nadal.

Thiem is very, very dangerous even to Nadal because of his first serve points won. On average Thiem is 73.0% first serve points won. Federer is the king of this stat among successful clay court players with 74.5%. Kuerten was 73.8%. What makes Thiem extra dangerous is that rather than be at 60% first serves in or 55% first serves for Kuerten, Thiem averages more first serves in play at 63% so far in 2017. Thiem just had matches with 73% and a whopping 84% first serve rate. If he does that near the end of a tournament Thiem would be able to challenge prime Nadal.:eek: Serves win slams because a strong serve allows a player to get efficiently through the draw. So far in 2017, Thiem has been straight setting most of his opponents which will allow him to be his very best deep into tournaments.:D
Superb stuff as usual! Let's just hope that Thiem can back up the robust stats with some clay titles. I'd maybe only give him a 25-30% chance today against Rafa. How do you assess his odds?
 

sportmac

Hall of Fame
Superb stuff as usual! Let's just hope that Thiem can back up the robust stats with some clay titles. I'd maybe only give him a 25-30% chance today against Rafa. How do you assess his odds?
I'd go with that. One thing we can't get away from - Rafa's forehand to Thiem's backhand.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Best players on clay right now:

1) Nadal
2) Goffin
3) Thiem
4) Federer
5) Djokovic
Federer not playing clay probably in 2017:
1. Nadal
2. Thiem
3. Goffin
4. Nishikori
5. Pouille
6. ARV
7. Zverev
8. Schwartzman
9. Cuevas
10. Djokovic (because of what he's shown in final sets with Nadal and Goffin)

Djokoray are very middle of the pack so far and not many signs of life. Djokovic comes back and plays quickly in Rome next week so maybe he'll improve. He's only a title threat at all because of his seeding. In Madrid his draw was almost like virtual byes to the SF. Nishikori is a guess, but he looked quite sharp once Schwartzman rudely awoke him in Madrid. His wrist may take him out for the clay season. If Federer plays he's in the top 10, but might be as low as 8. If his backhand returns his clay return game maybe, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Forgot about diesel (Wawrinka). He'll probably have to play Geneva to get the motor running for RG and its not on the schedule as Wawa still having grass delusions. No Geneva equals Helsinki for Wawa.:( A big run in Rome would also get him started, so we'll see.
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
Superb stuff as usual! Let's just hope that Thiem can back up the robust stats with some clay titles. I'd maybe only give him a 25-30% chance today against Rafa. How do you assess his odds?
Its all on first serve. If he goes big he'll win. If Nadal wins 40% of Thiem's first serve points again he's done. Its the only way he's likely to win as Nadal is better in neutral rallies (at least in Barcelona). If Thiem's serves are bigger and he's able to quickly put Nadal on the defensive with his first strike off the return, then he should win. Madrid may have just the conditions for this.:p I believe both will play extremely well today. Nadal knows the threat from their first set in Barcelona. A fresher Thiem should not rollover today and compete for the whole match.;) Thiem cannot up his serve game at will. Was hoping he would get hot for the later stages, but just last match with Cuevas was good at 73.1% first serves. Thiem had hot serving on South American clay into Acapulco last year and then it faded. This week he's had a couple great matches. His first serve percentage was amazingly low in Rio for the week, but to beat this Nadal that won't do at all.:oops:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
I like to see stats, when it is used judiciously. Like how @jm1980 or @falstaff78 uses. You over do it. Going to stats at the drop of the hat
And yet my predictions keep coming true.:rolleyes: Stats over a short period are not reliable. They are just an indicator. Thiem won Stuttgart last year winning just 50.5% of the points. RIO this year was over 56%. Nice 2016 was over 60%. You can ignore differences like these, but they often are pretty telling.

Pouille sadly this year was ill in Madrid and now has Thiem R16 Rome. Pouille has his first great stats on any surface with around 54% points won. It shows a big improvement for him versus results last year without good stats anywhere. Call it going to stats a a drop of the hat, but you have to use that with your eye and head. Murray under 51% points won on clay this year is in big trouble.:eek: Djokovic is not much better. Goffin for his last 52 weeks on clay is at a very fine 53.0% points won. He is the real deal on clay with QF or better at all the big clay events since Rome last year.:p
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Thiem in an off year for Nadal might well be #1 on clay this year. No one is giving Nadal full credit this year, which has amazed me. I said earlier it is 2013 all over again, but even if he slips at Rome, if he wins RG he will end the clay seaons with one loss. So either one loss or none, with game% and point% right through the roof.

Thiem is close to the top level of Fed and Djokovic in other years, when they also ran into Nadal playing out of his mind. And he's playing on the same level as Djokovic last year.

The reason there is such a huge gap between #1 and #2 is that Nadal turned back into the monster this year he used to be. If anything this should make people think again about what Fed did this year, beating him three times on HCs.
The 10,000 pound elephant in the room may have the best serve of his career. Its an ugly turn of events for the rest of the field. The "overuse" of stats showed this all the way back from Brisbane through to Auz Open final where Nadal had won a mighty 93% of his serve games coming into the final. That stat was a bit over the top for sure, but it showed that things had changed in a major way. I wasn't sure if this would translate to clay, but it has for Rafa. Goffin and Djokovic unable to break Nadal in his last two matches.:eek:
 

Crionics

Semi-Pro
@Meles
I've told everyone BEFORE the clay season that the two people two watch this year on clay are Nadal and Thiem.

And I told people most likely it is going to be 2013 all over again for Nadal, on clay, and in fact he has been better so far.

I disagree with Meles a lot about a lot of things, but he's right on the money re Thiem this year. Doesn't mean he will win tomorrow, or at Rome, or at RG. But his chances in the last two big clay tournies are as high as anyone else except the 10,000 pound elephant in the room.

Who else do you expect to steal the last two finals from Nadal on clay?

Murray?

Djokovic?

Wawrinka?

Do you realize that Djokovic was, at his best, only playing a bit better than Thiem last year on clay? And that was good enough to win him RG?

Thiem is probably second best clay courter this year. But I disagree with your last sentence, Djokovic last year was FAR superior to Thiem on clay. He gave Thiem a hell of a beating with 6-2, 6-1, 6-4. Thiem was hopeless in that match.
Murray and Wawrinka last year would have probably beaten Thiem as well and I believe Nadal would have beaten him too if his wrist didn't get injured.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
With Fed checking out of the clay season yes Dominic is now the second best clay player on the planet. And I'm hoping for one more step in the nearest future. Unfortunately today it's not very likely, Rafa is still ahead and terrible Madrid scheduling will not help either.
Everything else is right. This will be Thiem's best chance for victory before RG (Thiem might up his game even more by then:p). Rome probably more to Rafa's liking.:oops:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Thiem is probably second best clay courter this year. But I disagree with your last sentence, Djokovic last year was FAR superior to Thiem on clay. He gave Thiem a hell of a beating with 6-2, 6-1, 6-4. Thiem was hopeless in that match.
Murray and Wawrinka last year would have probably beaten Thiem as well and I believe Nadal would have beaten him too if his wrist didn't get injured.
100%. That match by the way was a ridiculously stilted coming in. Thiem had just played 4 hours the day before in harrowing match with Goffin. Djoko had walk in the park with Berd Poop. Djokovic was a notch above Thiem, but I'd have liked to see them on even footing on clay because Thiem is such a very clutch player in close matches and I think he's got the game to hit through Djokovic when he's rested.

The big difference between RG and Madrid is the Thiem serve. Yes Thiem's returning is better than last year, but Thiem's serve was falling apart in the later stages of the clay season. This week he's put in 84% first serve match and a 73% in SF. That kind of serving makes him a monster threat to Nadal. Late in 2016 clay Thiem just was on fumes with serve. Won Stuttgart with 26 DFs for the week.:confused: I'd also not that Thiem's serve and forehand performance seem to go together. which can't be a comforting for Nadal fans.;)
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
The 10,000 pound elephant in the room may have the best serve of his career.
ATP stats will come down for some things this week due to the Foggy match. He was 16/16 on games, counting the TB as I do, and 15/16 not counting it and so a bit under 50% of games for that match, so he is now probably in his 4th or 5th best year. M1000s actually LOWER year stats on clay, as counter-intuitive as that might seem, so if he does well in RG those numbers will go higher again, most likely.

We'll get current numbers for the serve by tomorrow, but they are very high this year, so far.

I've 88% on clay weighted to even, and anything below that weights down. That's a very high bar!!!
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
No. Federer is.

When the RG draws comes out, I guarantee you that Nadal will fear one player and ONLY one: Fed. Thiem isn't even on his radar screen, nor should he be.
 

mightyrick

Legend
The thread asks a valid question, but the premise really doesn't have any great weight. Being second sounds awesome, but in 2017, it is no great feat. Not against this neutered field. I've watched several of Thiem's matches this year and I really haven't seen any great difference in his game. In this tournament, he barely outclassed Dimitrov -- who has a lot of consistency problems on his own.

I'd feel a whole lot better about Thiem being second in the 2017 clay race... if Murray and Djokovic were in better form... and Federer was actually participating.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
The thread asks a valid question, but the premise really doesn't have any great weight. Being second sounds awesome, but in 2017, it is no great feat. Not against this neutered field. I've watched several of Thiem's matches this year and I really haven't seen any great difference in his game. In this tournament, he barely outclassed Dimitrov -- who has a lot of consistency problems on his own.

I'd feel a whole lot better about Thiem being second in the 2017 clay race... if Murray and Djokovic were in better form... and Federer was actually participating.
They would be right there with him for sure. Thiem could prove today that he's the most dangerous clay court player other than Nadal over the last decade. Have any of the others beat Nadal in top form and rested in a final? Fed maybe early on like at Hamburg maybe?
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Thiem destroyed Roger in the 2016 Italian Open.
Destoyed his 2016 and it may have Fed wise up and skip clay all together this year even though he's a better player this year. What is the point of playing RG for him?
 
6

6-3 6-0

Guest
Roger confirmed he will play the French Open:

I was saying he isn't currently playing on clay and hasn't played since last year on the surface. How is he #4 in favourite list ahead of guys like Djokovic/Murray/Wawrinka despite their form?
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
He probably is, although Goffin has something to say in this. He was unlucky to meet Nadal before the final in MC and Madrid.

If Goffin somehow reaches the Rome final, then I'll go with him.
 

TheAssassin

Legend
No. Federer is.

When the RG draws comes out, I guarantee you that Nadal will fear one player and ONLY one: Fed. Thiem isn't even on his radar screen, nor should he be.
Come on now, it's been almost a year since Federer played his last match on clay. Nadal will "fear" him at other surfaces based on what happened in early 2017 but he sure won't be worried if they meet at Roland Garros.
 

SinjinCooper

Hall of Fame
Top three are Fed, Wawrinka, and Nadal. Order to be determined by the only important claycourt tournament of the year.

Thiem, Goffin, et al form a clear but separate second tier.
 
Goffin is a very dangerous player, but his stats are grossly inferior to Thiem in 2017.

Thiem is up for the year through today to 42.1% return points won up from 40.0% in 2016. On serve Thiem is up to 66.0% from 65.4% last year. Total points won is 54.1% up from 52.7% for 2016. To put 54.1% in perspective, Roger Federer is 53.6% points won on clay for his career and Novak Djokovic is 54.0%. They are 2nd and 3rd all time behind Nadal at 56.0%.:eek: This kind of level is easily good enough to win slams, but with prime Nadal back on the loose in 2017 Thiem likely would need help from the field in disposing of Nadal.

Thiem is very, very dangerous even to Nadal because of his first serve points won. On average Thiem is 73.0% first serve points won. Federer is the king of this stat among successful clay court players with 74.5%. Kuerten was 73.8%. What makes Thiem extra dangerous is that rather than be at 60% first serves in or 55% first serves for Kuerten, Thiem averages more first serves in play at 63% so far in 2017. Thiem just had matches with 73% and a whopping 84% first serve rate. If he does that near the end of a tournament Thiem would be able to challenge prime Nadal.:eek: Serves win slams because a strong serve allows a player to get efficiently through the draw. So far in 2017, Thiem has been straight setting most of his opponents which will allow him to be his very best deep into tournaments.:D

Very impressive stats for Thiem. Madrid surface is not the most suitable for Rafa, this match could go the distance
 

killerboi2

Hall of Fame
The clay field is full of mugs if Thiem is 2nd best clay courter. Murray getting to FO final and winning clay titles in recent years despite clay being by far his worst surface? Just sums up how bad things are.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Very impressive stats for Thiem. Madrid surface is not the most suitable for Rafa, this match could go the distance
Thiem got into high gear with Dimitrov and first set with Coric (10 winners, 1 UE) and nice against Cuevas with 73% first serve rate and no BPs. (Has to be said that Cuevas return on par with typical Wawrinka at best.) If he puts it all together today Nadal will have a handful and likely respond.

You and I know the importance of the serve, the riddle of the serve. Rafa has solved it in 2017 and is just amazing. Very much looking forward to this match.
 
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