GabeT
G.O.A.T.
I’m still trying to analyze what happened and am looking just at the first set, for several reasons. It was the most lopsided and it was the first one, setting the stage for the beat down. The score is 6-0, complete domination. But if you look at it game by game it was a much closer set. What the numbers show is that Novak had multiple chances to change the result but failed every time. This is very different from both what Nadal experienced in the AO19 final and what Fed experienced in the FO08 final.
Novak’s opportunities
Start with Novak’s serve. In the first game Novak gets broken from 40:15. In the fifth game he gets broken from 40:0. This is very uncharacteristic. If his serve was simply crappy how did he end with 2 and 3 game points?
Now look at his return game. Novak had 3 bps that he couldn’t convert. But that wasn’t a fluke. It’s not like Nadal was winning his other games to love. In only the final game of the set did Nadal win his serve comfortably, in the other two Novak reached at least 40:40. In the second game Nadal was serving 40:15 and Novak won the next two points, so he was applying pressure.
So in the first set Novak had 3 games he could have won if only one point had gone differently. And he had multiple opportunities. He had 2 game points in the first game, 3 break points in the fourth game and another 3 game points in the fifth game. That’s a total of 8 opportunities to have at least won one game. He missed them all.
Nadal won 32 points in the first set and Novak only 19. But had just 3 points gone differently the score would have been 3-3.
Comparison with AO19 and FO08
Compare these results with the first set of the AO19 final. It’s a very different story. In that set Novak served 5 times and won four of those games to love and in the fifth Nadal only won one point. Novak breaks Nadal once, has BP in another game and reaches 30:30 in a third.
What this means is that in the set that Novak lost 6-0 he had multiple chances to turn that around whereas in the set that Nadal lost 6-3 he never had any chance at all. Novak simply lost every single key point he played in that set. And that’s what I find so strange. It’s not like him at all.
Another comparison is with FO08. Look at the set Federer lost 6-0, same as Novak on Sunday. There is a great difference when you dig into the numbers. In that set Fed never had any chance against Nadal’s serve. Nadal won 2 of his 3 service games in that set to love and in the third service game kept Federer to 30:30. In his own service games Federer only had one game point, compared to Novak having 5 game points across two games. Just as Nadal in the first set of AO19 Federer never came even close to changing the results
Thoughts?
What do you all think? To keep the analysis simple I’m looking at just one set. I can understand a set where Novak is simply steamrolled and has no chances. That’s what happened to Nadal in AO19 and to Fed in FO08 in the sets analyzed above. But Novak wasn’t steamrolled. He had plenty of opportunities for a different result. He just lost them all.
Novak’s opportunities
Start with Novak’s serve. In the first game Novak gets broken from 40:15. In the fifth game he gets broken from 40:0. This is very uncharacteristic. If his serve was simply crappy how did he end with 2 and 3 game points?
Now look at his return game. Novak had 3 bps that he couldn’t convert. But that wasn’t a fluke. It’s not like Nadal was winning his other games to love. In only the final game of the set did Nadal win his serve comfortably, in the other two Novak reached at least 40:40. In the second game Nadal was serving 40:15 and Novak won the next two points, so he was applying pressure.
So in the first set Novak had 3 games he could have won if only one point had gone differently. And he had multiple opportunities. He had 2 game points in the first game, 3 break points in the fourth game and another 3 game points in the fifth game. That’s a total of 8 opportunities to have at least won one game. He missed them all.
Nadal won 32 points in the first set and Novak only 19. But had just 3 points gone differently the score would have been 3-3.
Comparison with AO19 and FO08
Compare these results with the first set of the AO19 final. It’s a very different story. In that set Novak served 5 times and won four of those games to love and in the fifth Nadal only won one point. Novak breaks Nadal once, has BP in another game and reaches 30:30 in a third.
What this means is that in the set that Novak lost 6-0 he had multiple chances to turn that around whereas in the set that Nadal lost 6-3 he never had any chance at all. Novak simply lost every single key point he played in that set. And that’s what I find so strange. It’s not like him at all.
Another comparison is with FO08. Look at the set Federer lost 6-0, same as Novak on Sunday. There is a great difference when you dig into the numbers. In that set Fed never had any chance against Nadal’s serve. Nadal won 2 of his 3 service games in that set to love and in the third service game kept Federer to 30:30. In his own service games Federer only had one game point, compared to Novak having 5 game points across two games. Just as Nadal in the first set of AO19 Federer never came even close to changing the results
Thoughts?
What do you all think? To keep the analysis simple I’m looking at just one set. I can understand a set where Novak is simply steamrolled and has no chances. That’s what happened to Nadal in AO19 and to Fed in FO08 in the sets analyzed above. But Novak wasn’t steamrolled. He had plenty of opportunities for a different result. He just lost them all.
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