Chances Nadal drop to #3 by the US Open?

Andy G · Aug 9, 2009

Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250

maximo · Aug 9, 2009

If Murray goes one round further than Nadal in Montreal, he will be #2.

mandy01 · Aug 9, 2009

I dont think so..Nadal has been closer than that to no 3 before..I dont think he will go there too soon.

dragonfire · Aug 9, 2009

lol, murray getting to number 2 without a slam, i say fair play.

Spider · Aug 9, 2009

dragonfire said:
lol, murray getting to number 2 without a slam, i say fair play.

It is not Murray's fault that Nadal can't keep his knees in tact.

dragonfire · Aug 9, 2009

Spider said:
It is not Murray's fault that Nadal can't keep his knees in tact.

i didn't say it wasn't, i admire murray for getting so high in the rankings without winning a slam. Call in the murray phenomenon

Spider · Aug 9, 2009

Anyway US open is a long time ahead, in fact, Murray will displace Nadal next week itself and become your new world number two.

settolove · Aug 9, 2009

OMG the UK Media is going to be unbearable, maybe I should book my holidays.

Andy G · Aug 9, 2009

dragonfire said:
i didn't say it wasn't, i admire murray for getting so high in the rankings without winning a slam. Call in the murray phenomenon

the Murray Phenomenon? Thats funny, since Lendl made it all the way to #1 without a slam. As a matter of fact he was #1 from Feb '83 all the way until FO '84 for his 1st slam win. So maybe its not so much a murray thing.

batz · Aug 9, 2009

maximo said:
If Murray goes one round further than Nadal in Montreal, he will be #2.

If only. The points gap between and R2 exit and an R3 exit is not 240 (the number of points more than Nadal that Murray needs to make at Montreal to be number 2 on 17th August).

TheMagicianOfPrecision · Aug 9, 2009

Andy G said:
Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250

How much will Federer lose? Cant be that much..?

Spider · Aug 9, 2009

Boy! I hope it's Ferrer who is Rafa's first round opponent, then Nadal will be packing his bags for Cincinatti and Murray can take over the position more comfortably.

batz · Aug 9, 2009

Andy G said:
the Murray Phenomenon? Thats funny, since Lendl made it all the way to #1 without a slam. As a matter of fact he was #1 from Feb '83 all the way until FO '84 for his 1st slam win. So maybe its not so much a murray thing.

Not to mention Rios making number 1 without winning a slam, or Haas making number 2 without even making a slam final.

batz · Aug 9, 2009

TheMagicianOfPrecision said:
How much will Federer lose? Cant be that much..?

I think it's 200 points.

mandy01 · Aug 9, 2009

TheMagicianOfPrecision said:
How much will Federer lose? Cant be that much..?

I think its
10 from Montreal.
30 from Cincy
200 from Olympics and
2000 from USO.

mandy01 · Aug 9, 2009

The USO will be the major factor in determining who stands where in the rankings..

TheMagicianOfPrecision · Aug 9, 2009

Andy G said:
the Murray Phenomenon? Thats funny, since Lendl made it all the way to #1 without a slam. As a matter of fact he was #1 from Feb '83 all the way until FO '84 for his 1st slam win. So maybe its not so much a murray thing.

Well, Lendl deserved that he was so consistent week in week out. And REALLY, we should NOT compare Murray to Lendl

Spider · Aug 9, 2009

What is with the "who deserves the ranking" argument? Like I said, Murray has been a really consistent player for almost one year now and the rankings clearly reflect what is happening.

And besides Murray has performed better than Nadal in the last two slams (for those who think Murray doesn't deserve his new number two position, when he gets it).

Andy G · Aug 9, 2009

TheMagicianOfPrecision said:
Well, Lendl deserved that he was so consistent week in week out. And REALLY, we should NOT compare Murray to Lendl

I wasn't trying to compare them, just making the point that slams don't need to be won to advance up in the rankings.

batz · Aug 9, 2009

TheMagicianOfPrecision said:
Well, Lendl deserved that he was so consistent week in week out. And REALLY, we should NOT compare Murray to Lendl

Who is comparing Murray to Lendl? Using Lendl as an example of a player who made the upper echelons of the rankings without winning a slam is not the same thing as saying 'Murray is as good as Lendl'. It's not even close.

TheMagicianOfPrecision · Aug 9, 2009

Andy G said:
I wasn't trying to compare them, just making the point that slams don't need to be won to advance up in the rankings.

No, it looks better if u have won a slam but if you are making SF and F consistently then you can desrve to be no1. However if we quickly look at the womens side i do not think Safina deserves to be the no1.

P_Agony · Aug 9, 2009

Andy G said:
Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250

Yeah, but don't forget Murray has to defend Cincy too, so he might lose points as well as Rafa who has to defend the Rogers Cup.

The one who has the most points to gain until the US Open is Federer, who did squat last year both in Canada and Cincy.

Andy G · Aug 9, 2009

TheMagicianOfPrecision said:
No, it looks better if u have won a slam but if you are making SF and F consistently then you can desrve to be no1. However if we quickly look at the womens side i do not think Safina deserves to be the no1.

Why not. She has consistently advanced far enough in tourneys to earn a lot of points and defend them. More than any other current player, therefore she deserves the #1 spot. Should someone else get the top spot just because a lot of people "feel" that person belongs there? Or should we follow the rules and agree she deserves the spot because she earned it.

batz · Aug 9, 2009

P_Agony said:
Yeah, but don't forget Murray has to defend Cincy too, so he might lose points as well as Rafa who has to defend the Rogers Cup.

The one who has the most points to gain until the US Open is Federer, who did squat last year both in Canada and Cincy.

Nope. last year's Cincy points are already off. The numbers the OP used are inclusive of this.

TheMagicianOfPrecision · Aug 9, 2009

Andy G said:
Why not. She has consistently advanced far enough in tourneys to earn a lot of points and defend them. More than any other current player, therefore she deserves the #1 spot. Should someone else get the top spot just because a lot of people "feel" that person belongs there? Or should we follow the rules and agree she deserves the spot because she earned it.

yeah i know how the system works, she is the computer no1 but level-wise id say she is 3-4. What happened in Wimbledon is just not OK.

rafan · Aug 9, 2009

Well I think we have to be prepared for anything. Nadal has always surprised people. Who would have thought he would lose the FO and then who would have thougth he could win the AO.

Roland · Aug 9, 2009

I'm almost sure Murray takes the #2 before the open.
Will probably keep it til' the Master's Cup (at least) too.

Andy G · Aug 9, 2009

TheMagicianOfPrecision said:
yeah i know how the system works, she is the computer no1 but level-wise id say she is 3-4. What happened in Wimbledon is just not OK.

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. The 'computer' #1? This isn't college football. Thats how the BCS works, by assuming who is better. If the #2, 3, & 4 would advance and defend the way she does, then they wouldn't be 2, 3 &4. Each person is where they should be. Saying people didn't play this or that person or such, doesn't give them the credit for their performance. She is #1 for a reason, she advances and defends her points the best, she is the best overall.

TheMagicianOfPrecision · Aug 9, 2009

Andy G said:
What you're saying doesn't make any sense. The 'computer' #1? This isn't college football. Thats how the BCS works, by assuming who is better. If the #2, 3, & 4 would advance and defend the way she does, then they wouldn't be 2, 3 &4. Each person is where they should be. Saying people didn't play this or that person or such, doesn't give them the credit for their performance. She is #1 for a reason, she advances and defends her points the best, she is the best overall.

I understand you, but lets take the Williams`s sisters, at this stage of their careers the are only interested in the GS, they are the best players around but will probably never become no1 again since they dont grind week in and week out. Safina is no1 because she plays a lot, even smaller tournaments,does it well, and have been able to defend her points this far.

Peters · Aug 9, 2009

Yet again, some people are using the word 'deserving' of ranking positions. It's pointless.

Every player knows which tournaments provide certain quantities of ranking points and it's up to them how they collect those points. Whether it's all year round consistency, or a couple of GS wins and a few other decent finishes. It doesn't matter.

Everyone deserves their position in the rankings since their position can't be argued with. It's just simple maths.

If a player feels hard done by that another player is ahead of them despite a worse record in slams, it's up to them to rectify that by playing more tournaments.

It's a simple system.

CountryHillbilly · Aug 9, 2009

Andy G said:
Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250

So the bolded points are with Montreal, Cinci and Olympics dropped off?

Basically they are almost equal and Murray can easily overtake Nadal.

batz · Aug 9, 2009

CountryHillbilly said:
So the bolded points are with Montreal, Cinci and Olympics dropped off?

Basically they are almost equal and Murray can easily overtake Nadal.

That is correct. If Murray gets 240 points more than Rafa during Montreal and Cincy, then he takes the number 2 slot. But I'm sure Rafa will have plenty to say about it.

wyutani · Aug 9, 2009

i think he will...cos of his knee, maybe jump down to 4th mate'..

Clydey2times · Aug 9, 2009

TheMagicianOfPrecision said:
Well, Lendl deserved that he was so consistent week in week out. And REALLY, we should NOT compare Murray to Lendl

And what has Murray been? Inconsistent? The dude has been the very definition of consistency since last year's Wimbledon.

rafan · Aug 9, 2009

I didn't realise he was playing in the doubles as well

dropserve · Aug 9, 2009

Murray will be No2 if:

-Murray wins canada

-Murray finalist, Nadal in semis (in that case he overtakes nadal by 5 points)

-Murray in semis, Nadal in 3rd round

rafan · Aug 9, 2009

Clydey2times said:
And what has Murray been? Inconsistent? The dude has been the very definition of consistency since last year's Wimbledon.

Trouble is he is so frustrating. I don't know if it is all the hype and expectation that the press give him here in the UK but you feel he could deliver to the very end. When he is playing well he is there amongst the top but then something happens. If only he could carry his game through and win one slam it would give him the confidence he needs

Clydey2times · Aug 9, 2009

rafan said:
Trouble is he is so frustrating. I don't know if it is all the hype and expectation that the press give him here in the UK but you feel he could deliver to the very end. When he is playing well he is there amongst the top but then something happens. If only he could carry his game through and win one slam it would give him the confidence he needs

That's what I feel, too. I think it's all about getting the first one and relieving the pressure. It would free him up to play how he wants at the business end of the slams.

maximo · Aug 9, 2009

rafan said:
Trouble is he is so frustrating. I don't know if it is all the hype and expectation that the press give him here in the UK but you feel he could deliver to the very end. When he is playing well he is there amongst the top but then something happens. If only he could carry his game through and win one slam it would give him the confidence he needs

I thought the hype only comes during Wimbledon and then goes away till next year. I thought Murray did well at the USO last year because no one expected much. You could see that he was anything but pushing in the tournament. I think that this year he's more confident and in my eyes easily one of the favorites to win.

thejoe · Aug 9, 2009

maximo said:
I thought the hype only comes during Wimbledon and then goes away till next year. I thought Murray did well at the USO last year because no one expected much. You could see that he was anything but pushing in the tournament. I think that this year he's more confident and in my eyes easily one of the favorites to win.

I don't see how anyone can deny this. Murray has the game to win the US Open, no doubt. No one will want to play him, but to me, he still seems liable to being upset.

batz · Aug 9, 2009

thejoe said:
I don't see how anyone can deny this. Murray has the game to win the US Open, no doubt. No one will want to play him, but to me, he still seems liable to being upset.

Not just to you mate. As long as that 1st slam eludes him, that's something that will stick.

As Clydey and Rafan say above, that first slam is the unlocking key. I think Murray has maybe 4 - 6 slams in him. But the longer he goes without one, the harder it will get to win one.

All-rounder · Aug 9, 2009

batz said:
Not just to you mate. As long as that 1st slam eludes him, that's something that will stick.

As Clydey and Rafan say above, that first slam is the unlocking key. I think Murray has maybe 4 - 6 slams in him. But the longer he goes without one, the harder it will get to win one.

I think this year is his best chance to win it

maximo · Aug 9, 2009

batz said:
Not just to you mate. As long as that 1st slam eludes him, that's something that will stick.

As Clydey and Rafan say above, that first slam is the unlocking key. I think Murray has maybe 4 - 6 slams in him. But the longer he goes without one, the harder it will get to win one.

I pretty much think it's now or never regarding the USO.

All-rounder · Aug 9, 2009

maximo said:
I pretty much think it's now or never regarding the USO.

Not now or never but this year is his best chance to win it

Clydey2times · Aug 9, 2009

All-rounder said:
I think this year is his best chance to win it

My hope is that he'll get Federer in the semi-final. I think he'll find it easier to beat Fed in a slam for the first time if it's in the semis, rather than the final. The thought of facing Federer in a slam final adds a lot of psychological baggage.

Clydey2times · Aug 9, 2009

maximo said:
I pretty much think it's now or never regarding the USO.

Nah, it's not even close to being at that stage. He's only 22, after all. He'll get there eventually. I'm certain of that. I just think the earlier he wins one, the more he'll win in future.

batz · Aug 9, 2009

Clydey2times said:
My hope is that he'll get Federer in the semi-final. I think he'll find it easier to beat Fed in a slam for the first time if it's in the semis, rather than the final. The thought of facing Federer in a slam final adds a lot of psychological baggage.

I agree with this, but if he makes number 2 before USO then it can't happen!

Maybe we should cheer for Rafa at Montreal and Cincy?

Spider · Aug 9, 2009

Hahaha it's now or never regaring Murray winning the US open?

Come on guys, he is just 22 and has a long career ahead of him. If he doesn't win it this year, it only means our expectations from him need to be adjusted. I think he can dominate the sport and that will change on how the US open turns out this year.

I am very happy when Murray takes over as the new world number two in a couple of weeks. However, the only problem I see about that is he might have to face Federer at a slam final (should both make it) and that's one of the biggest challenges in sports today (beating Fed in a slam final), and doing that for winning your first slam, gets even more tougher.

But it could also mean Nadal facing Federer at the semi's and doing the dirty work for Murray. :twisted:. I am not sure what to expect out of Nadal but he seems to be the best person to derail the Fed express.

Clydey2times · Aug 9, 2009

batz said:
I agree with this, but if he makes number 2 before USO then it can't happen!

Maybe we should cheer for Rafa at Montreal and Cincy?

Even better would be if Rafa took Fed out in the semis of the US Open!

Then again, maybe Murray will do to Fed what he has done to him in 3 set matches. :twisted:

All-rounder · Aug 9, 2009

batz said:
I agree with this, but if he makes number 2 before USO then it can't happen!

Maybe we should cheer for Rafa at Montreal and Cincy?

But think of it this way Federer and nadal may meetin in the semi final instead

Chances Nadal drop to #3 by the US Open?

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