Who would finish the year as number 2?

Who would finish the year as number 2

  • Total voters
    34
Bukmeikara

Bukmeikara

Legend
One week until Monte Carlo so lets start the "cool" threads:)

Contanders:

Murray - he is current number 2 of 2015 but at the moment he lacks the dominant aura and has only two top 10 wins(against Berdych). He would hardly get more than 700 points from the clay and its quite likely to lose a lot of momentum after the wedding. Personaly I see him as number 4.

Federer - he would be 34 at the end of the year and at this point of his career its logical to thing that he would do "worse" than the previous season so even with his incredible level at Dubai-Indian Wells I think he is logical to finish at 3/4 place.

Nadal - Rafa lost a lot of confidence in the past year + his invincible aura on clay is almost gone. I doubt that he would fair on his normal standarts at Monte and Madrid, probably would reach some momentum at Rome and RG. But if he doesnt win RG(or get the hattric from the Masters), he would lose his ranking(not to mention probably a lot of confidence) which would result to a lot more frequent early exciits given the draws. For me, he would end around 5-12.

Nishikori/Raonic/Dimitrov - personaly I believe that Djokovic mentaly would "surrender" Wimbledon if he gets Paris. This means that the potential champion would gain a lot of points and confidence to boost the rest of his season. The top favorities are Federer and MUrray, given the statistics Roger wont win a Slam at this age and Murray is far from a convincing favorite. This leads us to Raonic and Dimitrov. Milos is an example for a improving consistency and should be considered better than last year + he finaly beat Roger. Dimitrov is in a deep slump right now but I believe that at the start of the grass season he would just say "**** it" and play pressure free from that point. Ironicly Nishikori being the best from his generation at the moment, has the smallest chances to perform well at the Slam in which Nole wont be so involved. This said from the three he would probably gain most points from the Masters and the smaller tournaments which kind of compensate his "hendicap" at Wimbledon. My personal vote goes to one of the three.

Berdych/Tsonga/Wawrinka/Ferrer - the only one with a "real" chance in my eyes is Berdych and thats is if he somehow wins Wimbledon. The rest doesnt have the needed consistency(Tsonga/Wawrinka) or that "special thing" to make you better than the rest of the pack(Ferrer).
 
tennis_pro

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
I'm leaning towards Murray because he'll play a lot more than Federer. Murray will end the year as the paper no 2 but Fed will be the actual no 2 and the only player who can challenge Djokovic anywhere (unless Nadal does it on clay too).
 
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Terenigma

Terenigma

G.O.A.T.
It'll be Murray or Federer. Most likely Murray due to his already consistant form since its only really been Djokovic thats stopped him and as long as he stays top 4, he's unlikely to lose before SF at any event he has a realistic shot. Also he's still decent on clay, Maybe not top 4 good but still top 8 good.

I cant see anyone outside of the top 4 winning any slam this year and looking at Nadal's form currenty, i dont see him getting #2 so yeah. 60% Murray 40% Federer
 
Bukmeikara

Bukmeikara

Legend
Terenigma said:
It'll be Murray or Federer. Most likely Murray due to his already consistant form since its only really been Djokovic thats stopped him and as long as he stays top 4, he's unlikely to lose before SF at any event he has a realistic shot. Also he's still decent on clay, Maybe not top 4 good but still top 8 good.

I cant see anyone outside of the top 4 winning any slam this year and looking at Nadal's form currenty, i dont see him getting #2 so yeah. 60% Murray 40% Federer
Click to expand...

Murray skips Monte Carlo, Madrid comes after the wedding and in the past he never passed the QF(180 points). He can go deep in Rome but still easily go out in the second round to someone like Cuevas or Almagro so on average he wont get more than 100 points from there. At RG for more than a QF would be just a good wish at this moment. Even if he gets Estoril title(250) its unlikely to archieve more than 600-700 points. Guys like Nishikori, Berdych, Wawrinka could easily be infront of him after RG.
 
S

spinovic

Hall of Fame
I'd bet on Federer or Murray. It will likely be determined by who does better at the last two majors. Federer has a decent chance to make up ground during clay season.
 
Steve0904

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
I'd say if Federer has a good clay season it'll be him, but if not, it could be Murray. In simple terms.

I think it'll be Federer just because he still has such a big lead over Murray. He's defending more, but I'm not looking past that big lead and Murray's struggles in clay season where he defends a RG SF.
 
augustobt

augustobt

Legend
Federer defends a F in Monte Carlo but almost nothing on clay besides that. He can make quite a lot of points until June.
 
S

spinovic

Hall of Fame
Steve0904 said:
I'd say if Federer has a good clay season it'll be him, but if not, it could be Murray. In simple terms.

I think it'll be Federer just because he still has such a big lead over Murray. He's defending more, but I'm not looking past that big lead and Murray's struggles in clay season where he defends a RG SF.
Click to expand...

Murray's leading the year-end race. Federer is the one who needs to catch up. He needs to make up some ground during clay court season.
 
Steve0904

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
spinovic said:
Murray's leading the year-end race. Federer is the one who needs to make up ground during clay court season.
Click to expand...

And he can because he went out in the first round in Rome and didn't play Madrid. Then Murray made a RG SF while Fed only made a 4th round. And I don't see Murray repeating a RG SF. So besides MC, Federer can make up ground. Murray's not been convincing enough for me tbh. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see him yet as #2 despite the fact that he's leading the year end race.

Maybe some of that is just that Federer's been more competitive with Djokovic IMO, even though I know that's a myopic way of looking at it since rankings are more about consistency.
 
N

Nathaniel_Near

Guest
Steve0904 said:
And he can because he went out in the first round in Rome and didn't play Madrid. Then Murray made a RG SF while Fed only made a 4th round. And I don't see Murray repeating a RG SF. So besides MC, Federer can make up ground. Murray's not been convincing enough for me tbh. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see him yet as #2 despite the fact that he's leading the year end race.

Maybe some of that is just that Federer's been more competitive with Djokovic IMO, even though I know that's a myopic way of looking at it since rankings are more about consistency.
Click to expand...

Federer didn't enter Miami, of course. I think we have to call Federer the second best player in the world at the moment despite Murray's AO final. Federer did reach the YEC final and won Dubai going through the best player in the world.
 
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Steve0904

Steve0904

Talk Tennis Guru
Nathaniel_Near said:
Federer didn't enter Miami, of course. I think we have to call Federer the second best player in the world at the moment despite Murray's AO final. Federer did reach the YEC and won Dubai going through the best player in the world.
Click to expand...

I think it's obvious that Federer is still 2nd behind Djokovic at this stage. No questions asked, but as to who will finish at #2, that's more up in the air.

Maybe if Murray was more competitive with Djokovic in general, my opinion would be different, but right now, Federer is the world's 2nd best player by a nice bit, IMO. You can get back to me if Murray does well at Wimbledon, say SF's or better, and Federer fails to defend his final.

I think Wimbledon is a bit of a tipping point here.
 
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beast of mallorca

beast of mallorca

G.O.A.T.
Probably Federer or Murray, unless Nadal makes a sudden resurgence and does a 2013. We'll see, no ? Nishikori might make a big push this year, probably win a GS perhaps......:)
 
cc0509

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Way too early to tell at this point. A lot can happen and only one slam has been played so far this year.
 
chjtennis

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
tennisaddict said:
Let us hope Fed gets some kinder draws at RG and WiMb. AO was horrible.
Click to expand...

I actually hope Federer gets an easy draw but gets to meet Nadal in QF or SF of FO, both players healthy and fresh as they can be. I'm just curious where they are in terms of their form right at this moment.
 
Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
I'm going out on a limb here. Nadal's health is always a question. If he gets injured again, I'm not sure he will finish in the top 5.

But I voted for him. Novak should be #1, but people are not looking at Nadal's play this year carefully.

He has been awful saving BPs and converting them. That could flip the other way in a heartbeat. Other than that he is winning at a time of year that is normally weak for him.

Explaining:

For any top player the most important stat is % of games won.

The great ones win around 60% of games, and when they do this they are always close to #1 in the world.

Totally % of service games and return games, last week:

Fed 125
Novak 124
Nadal 122

Who was third? Answer: Murray at 117. Nishikori at 113.

I'll update this when the ATP updates, but you can see the pattern. It's the same 4.

I've been searching for a couple weeks to understand why Nadal does not have more wins, and the answer is choke situations, break point situations.

At his single win in South America he was even worse, where he only save 48% of his break points and only converted 44%.

That is flat out terrible, but he still won the tournament. Granted, it was only a 250, but the problem is not his strokes or mechanics of his game. It is 100% psychological. He has not believed in himself at clutch situations. If that does not change, he will continue to be in serious trouble, but I would not bet against a reversal in the clay season. I am expecting at least some QFs and SFs, and even if he does not the FO, he is going to move up. But if he gets back to form in the clay season, the only thing that will prevent him from moving back to #2 would be another huge crash in the summer.

So I'm betting on the Big Four being the same group for one final year, with Fed and Murray and Nadal still gunning for each other.

I don't have any confidence in either Nishi or Raonic getting to the top. Top 5, sure, but no higher. Waw isn't going to get there. So who else?

By 2016 it may finally change, but the younger players are either too weak or too young.

I'm prepared to totally wrong, of course.
 
beast of mallorca

beast of mallorca

G.O.A.T.
Gary Duane said:
I'm going out on a limb here. Nadal's health is always a question. If he gets injured again, I'm not sure he will finish in the top 5.

But I voted for him. Novak should be #1, but people are not looking at Nadal's play this year carefully.

He has been awful saving BPs and converting them. That could flip the other way in a heartbeat. Other than that he is winning at a time of year that is normally weak for him.

Explaining:

For any top player the most important stat is % of games won.

The great ones win around 60% of games, and when they do this they are always close to #1 in the world.

Totally % of service games and return games, last week:

Fed 125
Novak 124
Nadal 122

Who was third? Answer: Murray at 117. Nishikori at 113.

I'll update this when the ATP updates, but you can see the pattern. It's the same 4.

I've been searching for a couple weeks to understand why Nadal does not have more wins, and the answer is choke situations, break point situations.

At his single win in South America he was even worse, where he only save 48% of his break points and only converted 44%.

That is flat out terrible, but he still won the tournament. Granted, it was only a 250, but the problem is not his strokes or mechanics of his game. It is 100% psychological. He has not believed in himself at clutch situations. If that does not change, he will continue to be in serious trouble, but I would not bet against a reversal in the clay season. I am expecting at least some QFs and SFs, and even if he does not the FO, he is going to move up. But if he gets back to form in the clay season, the only thing that will prevent him from moving back to #2 would be another huge crash in the summer.

So I'm betting on the Big Four being the same group for one final year, with Fed and Murray and Nadal still gunning for each other.

I don't have any confidence in either Nishi or Raonic getting to the top. Top 5, sure, but no higher. Waw isn't going to get there. So who else?

By 2016 it may finally change, but the younger players are either too weak or too young.

I'm prepared to totally wrong, of course.
Click to expand...

So, Rafa's assertions that it's "nerves" that's affecting his game are well grounded ? Is that the case, Monsieur ?
 
beast of mallorca

beast of mallorca

G.O.A.T.
Sabratha said:
I don't wish bad things on players.
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ccdf92a0ec65953dd5544c700c7da9d6-friends-with-benefits-high-five.gif
 
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Gary Duane

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
beast of mallorca said:
So, Rafa's assertions that it's "nerves" that's affecting his game are well grounded ? Is that the case, Monsieur ?
Click to expand...
I think that's it, exactly. In about a month we will know. Loss of confidence, just like loss of game, can be permanent, or go on for a long time, or change quickly.

I am very concerned about how his OCD rituals are getting worse. I've mentioned before that you can see an increase in all the "touching" that goes on as he has gotten older. He is trying to get it all done while bouncing the ball with the racket. You can see how he is struggling with this, and it is causing more and more problems with time violations. In his last tournament I saw him trying to rush through the ritual faster, but in each round there was more of it.

It takes at least an extra 5 seconds. The ATP is tightening up on time, not fast enough, but a little more, and he has the most trouble with it.

What concerns me is the break point situations. Fed is handling them as well as ever this year, at almost age 34, but Nadal has never choked like this before except before he started winning slams.

If by the FO the break point stats go up and up, I think he has another very good change in the FO. If figure that returning to clay will give him a 50/50 chance of turning those stats around. But if he continues to only save under 50% of BPs against him and under 45% of his possible BP conversions, he can't win over the 250 level.

I'm trying to look at it from his (possible) perspective. If I had just recovered from a problem with my wrist then was told I had to have my appendix out, that would depress the hell out of me, and I'm not a world class athlete.

By nature I am a rather empathic person. I loathe seeing talented people have to deal with bad luck. I'm no fan of Novak (not against hime either), but I remember the horror I felt when I saw him roll his ankle a couple years ago in DC, then last year when he was absent because of a wrist injury. I hate seeing what Delpo has gone through, and Nishi, and many others. It would be so great if these top players could just compete without injuries, and surgery, and recoveries.
 
Russeljones

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
I would say it would take an inhumane effort from Roger to defend what he earned in 2014. I don't see it happening. Murray has this in the bag, if not 1st.
 
R

rainingaces

Legend
Bukmeikara said:
Ironicly Nishikori being the best from his generation at the moment, has the smallest chances to perform well at the Slam in which Nole wont be so involved.
Click to expand...

I don't see any reasoning here so this looks like wishful thinking from you. Nishikori on paper is ahead of Dimitrov and Raonic right now. Wimbledon might be another case entirely I don't see Nishikori winning wimbledon in the near future.
 
Russeljones

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
Gary Duane said:
Murray has #2 in the bag?

Let's talk at the beginning of 2016. ;)
Click to expand...

Seriously, I think he's got a lot going for him at the moment. I think the lingering effects of his layoff will dissipate and he'll regain at least a modicum of self-confidence. I hope. I don't want us to be writing, 4 years down the road, of what this guy might have achieved.
 
K

King Fed WW

Guest
Murray seems the most likely, however never rule out Nadal. Expecting him to pick up loads of points these next 2 months.

The other issue is that we can predicit who might play the consitent best tennis but not who wins the big ones. Raonic could win Wimbledon (currently my thinking) and then shoot on to #2 for example.



Steve0904 said:
I think it'll be Federer just because he still has such a big lead over Murray.
.
Click to expand...

Totally irrelevant come YE.
 
D

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Russeljones said:
I would say it would take an inhumane effort from Roger to defend what he earned in 2014. I don't see it happening. Murray has this in the bag, if not 1st.
Click to expand...

At the end of the season, in November whoever will gather more points during calendar year 2015, will be ranked ahead. This has nothing to do with points earned in 2014 season.
Currently Murray has 1000+ lead over Federer in race, which is not significant enough to consider it "In Bag" with remaining portion of season including 9 mandatory big events.


You could be right about 52 weeks ranking though. Federer could drop at some point, probably after Wimbledon, if he fails to defend 1200 points but still he has 2800+ lead over #3 which will ensure him maintaining spot IMO.
 
D

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
Interesting question op.

I think, it will be R. Federer most likely or N. Djokovic.

Murray will finish his resurgence year at #3 or #4 (most likely) depending upon how Nadal performs. This is another year, in which unfortunately we will witness same old farts occupying Top spots with possible exception of Nishikori.

Dead Era In Men's Tennis continues.
 
Russeljones

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
D.Nalby12 said:
At the end of the season, in November whoever will gather more points during calendar year 2015, will be ranked ahead. This has nothing to do with points earned in 2014 season.
Currently Murray has 1000+ lead over Federer in race, which is not significant enough to consider it "In Bag" with remaining portion of season including 9 mandatory big events.


You could be right about 52 weeks ranking though. Federer could drop at some point, probably after Wimbledon, if he fails to defend 1200 points but still he has 2800+ lead over #3 which will ensure him maintaining spot IMO.
Click to expand...

I know I am right because the question is about year's end and Federer's position at the end of last year was 2nd. Not a very difficult question, I thought.
 
D

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
So how would failure to defend points earned in 2014 will affect his YE 2015 ranking?

It will affect his 52 weeks ranking but not YE.
 
Sysyphus

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
Race for YE #1 and #2 will be a 50/50 race between Murray and Djokovic—a true fight between good and evil.

Federer will be a strong and respectable #3.

vanioMan said:
Djokovic.

#1 will be The Muzziah.
Click to expand...

Rejoice, for the gospel hath been spreadeth.

The Muzziah to conquer all.
 
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SystemicAnomaly

SystemicAnomaly

Bionic Poster
tennis_pro said:
I'm leaning towards Murray because he'll play a lot more than Federer. Murray will end the year as the paper no 2 but Fed will be the actual no 2 and the only player who can challenge Djokovic anywhere (unless Nadal does it on clay too).
Click to expand...

Voting for Federer but I can see Murray as having a decent shot at it.
.
 
underground

underground

G.O.A.T.
LOL at people on the Murray hype train of ending #2. Federer played ONE bad tournament, which was unfortunately at a slam which is why Murray is ahead in the race. Federer is still by far the most consistent player after Djokovic. Since last year's Wimbledon, he reached beyond the semis of every event except Paris and the AO.
 
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