US Open 2015 R3: Nadal (8) vs Fognini (32)

Who will win?


  • Total voters
    78
  • Poll closed .

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
From a different perspective, Rafa has been improving steadily from where he was at the beginning of the year. Compared to the losses at AO,FO and Wimbledon, this was a much better performance.

The sad part is once the field knows that you are not as strong as you were , the belief comes and more losses follow.

But Rafa is an incredible fighter and he will not go without giving it all.

You're one perplexing dude.
 
He has hard decisions to make...he said at the press conference he knows what they are and how to fix them, and then the video cuts off, with me yelling "how?' at the screen...maybe kidnap Isner and transport his serving blood into Rafa's brain, because he's got Errani's now
No he doesnt know how to fix them. He thinks he knows, but he does not
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
9 matches in a row lost on hardcourt for Fognini so he breaks it against an all-time great with 3 hardcourt slam finals wins and who swept the summer hardcourt seaseon a mere two years ago...think about what has changed from 2 summers ago...amazing
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
Does the court tend to play slower in the evening?

yes of course, but court is stil quick and was taking the ball bounce too...some wind picked up in our new semi-roofed stadium

but I'll tell you what was different, the nets are much looser....when I started watching in the 70's and particularly the 80's, hard hit balls off the net ended up in your garage...they're plopping over...between Rafa and Serena in this tournament had to a be a bakers dozen
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
N_N : While Rafa can improve, I think it is not realistic to expect that he would reach the same levels of the past.

Rafa played great for 2 sets when Fog was just ordinary. Once Fog stepped it up, Rafa was not able to handle it. Old Rafa would have never allowed it to go for 3 sets.

Rafa needs to get a good serve and pop in his FH which went AWOL today in the later stages of the match

needs to get to the net as often as possible...be willing to break up points more which approaches to the net off chip and charge or good approaches....needs to use a drop shot/lob strategy as an aceptance of lessened baseline dominance...check the net # percentages, then check the amount
 

Candide

Hall of Fame
I picked the Fog in 4 so I'm a bit put out. On the other hand...
58985323.jpg
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
As with most things, his racquet smash would come in second to Fed's


was good to hear Darren Cahill acknowledge how Nadal has no issue playing at opponent's serving pace..Fognini did that to Nadal first..I don't think Nadal liked that either...check back, Nadal doesn't slow down Fed on serve, never heard that be emphasized before..Cahill's good
 

BreakPoint

Bionic Poster
Hitting with heavy topspin takes the most skill and power. Anyone can hit flat and fluke winners.
Um...hitting with topspin and keeping the ball inside the court is easy because the spin will bring the ball down inside the court. Hitting flat winners is HARD because there's less spin to bring the ball inside the court so there's a lot less margin for error.
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
for you gear heads, different characteristics of the smaller man, Fognini's rackets...and the older one Rafa is still using, as well as the "more powerful" one resting comfortably in his closet?
 

beltsman

G.O.A.T.
Um...hitting with topspin and keeping the ball inside the court is easy because the spin will bring the ball down inside the court. Hitting flat winners is HARD because there's less spin to bring the ball inside the court so there's a lot less margin for error.

In terms of physics, yes. In terms of tennis skill, no.
 

Kalin

Legend
why is that players always redline against nadal????

I didn't see this match (unfortunately) but usually the reason is always the same - Rafa's at times very passive game allows them to do so. Players who play much closer to the baseline are harder to redline against unless the opponent is redlining from the very beginning. Rafa's style sometimes allows opponents time to adjust and find their range.
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
from AP...

"Fognini began taking more high-risk shots - and putting plenty right where he wanted them, winding up with more than twice as many winners as Nadal, 70 to 30.

''You have to attack him,'' Fognini said.

Asked how it was possible that an opponent could produce that many winners against him, Nadal smiled and joked: ''Maybe I am slower."

that's true and funny...but this next doesn't help...

"What I (am) doing worse is playing worse than what I used to do the last couple of years,'' he said. ''That's it.''

what does this even mean?..along the lines of the dreaded, to me, .."it is what it is"

he did say he knows what he's doing wrong and knows how to change it...the video clip ended there on SportsCenter, as I yell, "How?!"

Somebody has to question him harder but I know he's tired of the negatvity around him now...he also knows he started it earlier in the year but now wants and is trying to be more positive...got so he "felt like 200" ranked he said in his previous presser...500 now I guess
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Yes, Ralph wasn't quite at his old best level, but his performance was very spirited and tenacious. Right now, he just isn't getting enough purchase on his first strikes and it seems that opponents are able to read his forehand. I don't think it's just a case of Rafa declining but also the field is more able to understand the probable placement of his forehands even when he really rips them.
Here is another POV. The technology of rackets continues to improve. It's not enough to have the latest shoes, to slide better on HCs. ;)

Fed made a decision to change rackets about a year and a half ago. But initially he had to back away from the new racket. He didn't have enough time to adjust.

Rafa changed rackets sometime in the spring, saying he needed more easy power. Then he too backed off because he could not control the new racket.

Tonight he hit one forehand at 96 mph, but Fognini was winning the battle of pace. I'd wager the shots Rafa was hitting tonight would have blasted most people off the court even a few years ago. The game is changing.

I suspect he will be experimenting again with another racket, but it's going to take time to make the adjustment.

If he doesn't do this, he simply won't be able to compete in 2015 and 2016. For him to continue using his old racket now is a bit like continuing to play with a wooden racket after everyone else has moved on.

In 2012 Fed won 92% of his service games on hardcourts. In 2004 it was the same, 92. In 2005 it was 91. 91 in 2006. 91 in 2007. It's 94 this year. I think a huge amount of that is because of the racket. He gambled, and it paid off.

Watch to see if Nadal makes a racket change between now and the next FO...
 
N

Nathaniel_Near

Guest
Here is another POV. The technology of rackets continues to improve. It's not enough to have the latest shoes, to slide better on HCs. ;)

Fed made a decision to change rackets about a year and a half ago. But initially he had to back away from the new racket. He didn't have enough time to adjust.

Rafa changed rackets sometime in the spring, saying he needed more easy power. Then he too backed off because he could not control the new racket.

Tonight he hit one forehand at 96 mph, but Fognini was winning the battle of pace. I'd wager the shots Rafa was hitting tonight would have blasted most people off the court even a few years ago. The game is changing.

I suspect he will be experimenting again with another racket, but it's going to take time to make the adjustment.

If he doesn't do this, he simply won't be able to compete in 2015 and 2016. For him to continue using his old racket now is a bit like continuing to play with a wooden racket after everyone else has moved on.

In 2012 Fed won 92% of his service games on hardcourts. In 2004 it was the same, 92. In 2005 it was 91. 91 in 2006. 91 in 2007. It's 94 this year. I think a huge amount of that is because of the racket. He gambled, and it paid off.

Watch to see if Nadal makes a racket change between now and the next FO...

I agree (that the game changes over time and that the same thing that worked before won't work so often now and that adaptation is needed).
 

Al Czervik

Hall of Fame
I fell asleep at the end of the second set when Rafa was in total control and Fognini looked like he was going to fall apart. Did Rafa melt down or was Fognini on fire?
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
Here is another POV. The technology of rackets continues to improve. It's not enough to have the latest shoes, to slide better on HCs. ;)

Fed made a decision to change rackets about a year and a half ago. But initially he had to back away from the new racket. He didn't have enough time to adjust.

Rafa changed rackets sometime in the spring, saying he needed more easy power. Then he too backed off because he could not control the new racket.

Tonight he hit one forehand at 96 mph, but Fognini was winning the battle of pace. I'd wager the shots Rafa was hitting tonight would have blasted most people off the court even a few years ago. The game is changing.

I suspect he will be experimenting again with another racket, but it's going to take time to make the adjustment.

If he doesn't do this, he simply won't be able to compete in 2015 and 2016. For him to continue using his old racket now is a bit like continuing to play with a wooden racket after everyone else has moved on.

In 2012 Fed won 92% of his service games on hardcourts. In 2004 it was the same, 92. In 2005 it was 91. 91 in 2006. 91 in 2007. It's 94 this year. I think a huge amount of that is because of the racket. He gambled, and it paid off.

Watch to see if Nadal makes a racket change between now and the next FO...

next FO!?...he guaranteed this off-season and it should never have got that far back....it needs to start in Asia...his appendix is already out, so... :)

he needs to think about the strings in it too...tension, pattern

it's not just tech stuff of course, but it's a start
 

Vrad

Professional
For those who think this match was incredible (quality wise), in parts it was but the consistently mediocre serving allowed this match to look way better than it actually was. Nadal wasn't remotely close to Slam winning form. That's the reality. Those saying Nadal played very well are kidding themselves if they are truly comparing Nadal to the actual "playing very well" Nadal - the one who overall at the Slams makes a mockery of Federer and Djokovic and has won 14 Slams.

Get real yo.
If this was a WTA match the people here would holding it up as a prime example of why the WTA sucks. 7service bresks in a row. Missed overhead from the net. 32 seed upsetting the #8. The higher player too mentally weak to protect a 2 set and break lead, etc...
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Great champ
I agree (that the game changes over time and that the same thing that worked before won't work so often now and that adaptation is needed).
Great champions know what worked to get them to the top. Of course they are very reluctant to change what used to be a winning game.

That's probably one of the biggest things that stop players around age 30 from evolving who have "ruled the world". If you have been winning slams from age 18 or 19 and in the top five for ten years, it's going to take a lot to make a change.

By contrast someone like Wawrinka who has never really been at the top has nothing to lose. No one is even paying attention to what racket he is using, as opposed to what he used a couple years ago. When you are not at the top, you are free to experiment.

Asking Nadal right now to change his racket is probably as hard as asking Novak to change his diet (again).

In general people blame Uncle Toni for everything that has gone wrong (I do this sometimes too), but Toni did not teach him to waste time serving by going through an OCD routine, and he probably has just as little control over some of the negative things Nadal does.

At the root of it all is that Nadal hates change, and sometimes a player only accepts the idea of change when he is losing. Fed's racket change happened after his disastrous 2013. It can't be pure coincidence that he stuck with the old racket in 2012, when he still won a slam, but was open to change when he could no longer win a slam.

For Nadal 2015 is going to be a wake-up call. For the same reason that I think Fed has the best chance at winning the USO this year he has had in years, I also think that Nadal can come back and win more slams in the future, if he stays healthy. But he has to change rackets. I don't think it is so much that he has less power now as that all the other players in 2015 have more. The easy power Fognini got tonight makes me think that Foggy is playing with the best and newest technology, as Fed is, and that Nadal is not.
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
ATP:

It may have been a heartbreaking loss for Rafael Nadal against Fabio Fognini under the lights on Arthur Ashe Stadium on Friday night, but the Spaniard was pleased with one thing: he went down fighting on his own terms.

Too many times at the start of the year, Nadal would later lament in his press conference, he had beaten himself. But in the US Open third round, Fognini simply played better when it mattered.

“He played great,” said Nadal. “It was not a match that I lost, even if I had opportunities. It's a match that he won. I accept that. I’m not happy that he played better than me, but that's what happened. He played better than me. I didn't play bad at all. I played a normal match, but it wasn’t enough.”

It has been a mixed year for Nadal, who was looking to make a strong comeback in 2015 after a right wrist injury and then a bout of appendicitis curtailed his 2014, forcing him to miss the US Open and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals.

But while there were glimmers of top form from the left-hander in the first part of the season, there was also plenty of frustration for Nadal, including a shock loss to Dustin Brown in the Wimbledon second round. He had also fallen twice to Fognini, in the Rio de Janeiro semi-finals and in the Barcelona third round.

The difference between then and now, says the Spaniard, is that mentally, he is able to fight until the very end. The foundation is there and now it’s time to work on improving.

“I fought until the last point, with a good attitude,” said Nadal. “It was not enough to win today. But the good thing is that my mind allowed me to fight until the end as I have done during all my career. Sometimes this year I was not able to do that.

“The nerves, the anxiety that I had for a long time this season, meant I was not able to do it. I was not able to fight the way that I was fighting today. So it is an improvement for me. I take that like a positive thing and I know what I have to do. I am going to work on it.

“I think I have a good base now,” continued the Manacor native. “As I said, the good thing is I am not playing terrible matches like I did at the beginning of the season. When I am losing, I am losing because the opponents beat me, not because I lost the match, as I did a lot of times at the beginning of the season. That's an improvement for me.”

With quarter-finals at the Australian Open and Roland Garros his best Grand Slam results this year, it marks the first time since 2004 that Nadal has not won a major title. But the 14-time Grand Slam champion is focusing now on a strong finish to the season. As he bids to make a late charge for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London, the 29 year old will play in Beijing, Shanghai, Basel and Paris after leading Spain in Davis Cup action in two weeks’ time.

“For me, it was amazing to win a Grand Slam 10 years in a row. I think nobody did it. You can imagine how difficult it is to make that happen,” said Nadal, who won his first Grand Slam championship at Roland Garros in 2005.

“I have to accept that it was not my year and keep fighting till the end of the season to finish in a positive way for me. Finish the season with the feeling that I improved something from the beginning of the season. That's something that I think I am doing. That is a start. I know what I have to do and I am going to work on it.”
 

Lavs

Hall of Fame
Here is another POV. The technology of rackets continues to improve. It's not enough to have the latest shoes, to slide better on HCs. ;)

Fed made a decision to change rackets about a year and a half ago. But initially he had to back away from the new racket. He didn't have enough time to adjust.

Rafa changed rackets sometime in the spring, saying he needed more easy power. Then he too backed off because he could not control the new racket.

Tonight he hit one forehand at 96 mph, but Fognini was winning the battle of pace. I'd wager the shots Rafa was hitting tonight would have blasted most people off the court even a few years ago. The game is changing.

I suspect he will be experimenting again with another racket, but it's going to take time to make the adjustment.

If he doesn't do this, he simply won't be able to compete in 2015 and 2016. For him to continue using his old racket now is a bit like continuing to play with a wooden racket after everyone else has moved on.

In 2012 Fed won 92% of his service games on hardcourts. In 2004 it was the same, 92. In 2005 it was 91. 91 in 2006. 91 in 2007. It's 94 this year. I think a huge amount of that is because of the racket. He gambled, and it paid off.

Watch to see if Nadal makes a racket change between now and the next FO...
Does Fogini play still with his trusted PD 1st edition (no woofer)?
 

Legend of Borg

G.O.A.T.
Great champ

Great champions know what worked to get them to the top. Of course they are very reluctant to change what used to be a winning game.

That's probably one of the biggest things that stop players around age 30 from evolving who have "ruled the world". If you have been winning slams from age 18 or 19 and in the top five for ten years, it's going to take a lot to make a change.

By contrast someone like Wawrinka who has never really been at the top has nothing to lose. No one is even paying attention to what racket he is using, as opposed to what he used a couple years ago. When you are not at the top, you are free to experiment.

Asking Nadal right now to change his racket is probably as hard as asking Novak to change his diet (again).

In general people blame Uncle Toni for everything that has gone wrong (I do this sometimes too), but Toni did not teach him to waste time serving by going through an OCD routine, and he probably has just as little control over some of the negative things Nadal does.

At the root of it all is that Nadal hates change, and sometimes a player only accepts the idea of change when he is losing. Fed's racket change happened after his disastrous 2013. It can't be pure coincidence that he stuck with the old racket in 2012, when he still won a slam, but was open to change when he could no longer win a slam.

For Nadal 2015 is going to be a wake-up call. For the same reason that I think Fed has the best chance at winning the USO this year he has had in years, I also think that Nadal can come back and win more slams in the future, if he stays healthy. But he has to change rackets. I don't think it is so much that he has less power now as that all the other players in 2015 have more. The easy power Fognini got tonight makes me think that Foggy is playing with the best and newest technology, as Fed is, and that Nadal is not.

wait, if technology makes this much of a difference, even a slight change, how come Fed wasn't blown off the court while using a pro-staff paintjob for most of his career?

is racket tech REALLY that advanced from even a few years ago?

i thought most of it was just creative marketing by the racket producers to make more sales

$$$
 

Julian12

New User
Nalbandian imo was an even bigger underachiever, with better overall ability at best. Fognini thou, with a new coach can maybe go all the way, but i see Fed and Djoker stand in the way, Fed especially are playing some of his best tennis now, and i see Fed as a slight favorite of going all the way. But if Fog can keep this level up, he can surely give both players more than a run for their Money, Fed has to get past Kohlschriber, i think he will pull that off, it would take a Kyrgios, Nalbandian Fognini like crazy talented player to beat him, where they hit the day and everything just goes in and over the net..
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
In 2012 Fed won 92% of his service games on hardcourts. In 2004 it was the same, 92. In 2005 it was 91. 91 in 2006. 91 in 2007. It's 94 this year. I think a huge amount of that is because of the racket. He gambled, and it paid off.

Watch to see if Nadal makes a racket change between now and the next FO...

Yes but he got bounced very early at AO (didn't face best returners in BO5 on ultra slow HC), skipped Miami and Montreal, those are some of the slowest HCs on tour so the stats are very skewed.

Racquet change can help significantly no doubt but can't compensate completely, I still think that "It's Indian not the arrow" largely applies here. Nadal with younger legs would have never let this go to 5. People just have short memories.
 

The Green Mile

Bionic Poster
20 Min Highlights for anyone interested.

I know holding serve is one of the most important tasks for a tennis player, but some of the shot making in that 5th set was just phenomenal. That Fognini return game at 4-4 was ridiculous.
 

Chicharito

Hall of Fame
Wow crazy, couldn't believe the scoreline. First pre QF defeat in a slam for Nadal since 2007 (off grass). His annus horribilis sort of needed a signature loss, Brown wasn't really as it had happened at SW19 before.

What time did this finish locally?

@The Green Mile , thanks mate

edit. or not, vid taken down lol
 
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underground

G.O.A.T.
What happened?!?! Nadal lost from 2 SETS UP? Did Fognini do a Tsonga 2011? But even so I can't imagine Rafa not having opportunities to put him away
 
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