2011 Rome Final - Rafael Nadal vs Novak Djokovic

[ultradr]

This one is tough. For ex-slam champions at non-slam events, it often comes down to this: who has more motivations/desire to win non-slam events. Their top priority is preparation for slam events:

Djokovic: he doesn't want to end his winning streak. He wants to beat McEnroe's record.

Nadal: he doesn't want Djokovic's confidence too high on clay. Italian open is a top preparation for French. He wants to makes sure everybody know he is still the king on clay.

But both players doesn't want to get too tired (or even injured) before French. Maybe Djokovic doesn't care and he wants to fly higher with this streak. Nadal since last year, clearly shown he wants to pace himself peaking at slams. Bur the force is getting too stronger with Djokovic.

So, unless someone get injured before/during the final, I think both players will go full force with this one. And my prediction is Nadal in 3 sets.

 

[i_heart_ib]

Im gonna say Nadal in 3.

Nadal's the claymaster! Now I know the courts of Rome are a little faster than Roland Garros, but I think Nadal will pull it out.

 

[FlamEnemY]

I just saw the schedule.

Apparently the match may start around 4.30 PM

This means that Novak has roughly 16 hours of 'rest' before the final.

Kinda sucks. I expect him to lose in 2.

 

[rovex]

Humbalito in tights sets.

 

[Cesc Fabregas]

It just shows how much easier it is for Nadal to make clay finals than Djokovic, Djokovic got lucky 2 weeks in a row that Bellucci and Murray got nervous when closing out the match.

 

[borg number one]

Nadal in 2 straight sets tomorrow.

 

[tenis1]

It just shows how much easier it is for Nadal to make clay finals than Djokovic, Djokovic got lucky 2 weeks in a row that Bellucci and Murray got nervous when closing out the match.

Sure it is easy for Nadal with all the cake walk draws and retirements in his part of the draw.

 

[Mustard]

Nadal in 2 sets. Order restored in the realm of clay.

 

[nadalbestclass]

Nadal in 2 sets. Order restored in the realm of clay.

Vamos! I soo hope you are right!

 

[YodaKnowsBest]

Vamos! I soo hope you are right!

If not, I will personally make a retirement thread for Rafa. :lol:

 

[nadalbestclass]

If not, I will personally make a retirement thread for Rafa. :lol:

You've gotta be quick tho, cuz you know you'll have 10 people waiting to beat you to it!

 

[nadalbestclass]

By the way, it's supposed to rain tomorrow...so Novak might not end up being as unlucky after all.

 

[tenis1]

By the way, it's supposed to rain tomorrow...so Novak might not end up being as unlucky after all.

Damn, that is even worse. Less time to rest before RG

They should just cancel the final if it rains tomorrow.

 

[pound cat]

from accuweather

Sunday 5/15/2011

Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers

High Temperature: 22°C

RealFeel: 23°C

 

[tenis1]

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/itxx0067

 

[nadalbestclass]

^Thanks. It doesn't look like anything serious. Plus the match is in the evening.

 

[Magnus]

Im gonna say Nadal in 3.

Nadal's the claymaster! Now I know the courts of Rome are a little faster than Roland Garros, but I think Nadal will pull it out.

Court looks really slow to me...

 

[TheTruth]

Physically more tired, yes, it would be strange if he wasn't but you have to take the mental aspect into consideration as well. Novak is full of positive mental energy which may help him push through the fatigue.

And the pressure is on Nadal tomorrow. A defeat for Novak wouldn't be as costly as it would for Nadal. If Novak loses tomorrow it won't be such a big deal. Yes, his streak is broken but it's not like Nadal would have reasserted his authority over him.

But if Nadal loses tomorrow, it will be a massive blow to him and his reputation. These factors will be as important as the physical ones.

Excellent post. I agree.

This one is hard to call, imo, because as you say the mental confidence can be enough knowing that this is the last match and he has a week to rest. That may be enough to pull him through and make the fatigue secondary.

I hate to doubt Nadal, but he really isn't playing that well. He's started slow and only showed flashes of brilliance here and there. Two things bother me, his UFE's and breakpoint conversion. I noticed today that Murray and Djokovic don't miss much.

At the same time, Nadal has played poorly getting to the final and then produced some magic.

But then again, right now Novak doesn't have any weaknesses. His ROS is great, his movement, strategy, and mental composure. Where do you go?

Anyway, may the best man win. I'm scared for RG now.

 

[ledwix]

I'd better wake up for this...it's gonna be awesome.

Logically, I'm gonna have to say Nadal in 2, although this season has been insane so far. Whoda thunkit?

 

[flyinghippos101]

Anyone know what time this will be EST?

Btw I think it'll be Rafaella in two

 

[Semi-Pro]

Such a shame fatigue will probably play a factor and will most likely end Novaks streak....ah well what can u do.

 

[Pwned]

Anyone know what time this will be EST?

Btw I think it'll be Rafaella in two

10:15 est .

 

[Mustard]

Such a shame fatigue will probably play a factor and will most likely end Novaks streak....ah well what can u do.

Come on, we know the rules of tennis. It's about beating your opponent on the day, whatever shape you're both in.

 

[Semi-Pro]

Come on, we know the rules of tennis. It's about beating your opponent on the day, whatever shape you're both in.

Indeed, which is why I said what can you do. It was a great run overall. Hopefully we still have an epic tomorrow

 

[jchl97]

Djokovic in 3

 

[SuperPhong]

Djoker in 3

 

[MichaelNadal]

Djokovic in 3

Djoker in 3

Macho Man Ralph Savage in 2.

 

[Caracalla]

if Viva Las Vamos doesn't do it tomorrow..

he is officially done

 

[JTathlete]

great match by the djoker..

 

[robin7]

Djoker is mentally & phisically fatigue.

So Vamos Rafa in 2.

 

[Spider]

Nadal against an exhausted Djokovic. I still back Djokovic to win this match.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Nadal against an exhausted Djokovic. I still back Djokovic to win this match.

If he won, it wouldn't surprise me at all, he's playing THAT well. It's ridiculous.

 

[Spider]

It just shows how much easier it is for Nadal to make clay finals than Djokovic, Djokovic got lucky 2 weeks in a row that Bellucci and Murray got nervous when closing out the match.

Yeah, because beating midgets like Gasquet and Cilic (who doesn't know where the court is), is the same as beating Murray, Soderling and Wawrinka....

Don't worry, Nadal won't be number one for a lot more. Djokovic will crush his spirits.

 

[clayman2000]

Excellent post. I agree.

This one is hard to call, imo, because as you say the mental confidence can be enough knowing that this is the last match and he has a week to rest. That may be enough to pull him through and make the fatigue secondary.

I hate to doubt Nadal, but he really isn't playing that well. He's started slow and only showed flashes of brilliance here and there. Two things bother me, his UFE's and breakpoint conversion. I noticed today that Murray and Djokovic don't miss much.

At the same time, Nadal has played poorly getting to the final and then produced some magic.

But then again, right now Novak doesn't have any weaknesses. His ROS is great, his movement, strategy, and mental composure. Where do you go?

Anyway, may the best man win. I'm scared for RG now.

Rafa played much, much better against Gasquet though. I mean his Winner:UE ratio was almost 2:1. Considering how Nadal is, thats uncommon for him. And 1st set Gasquet played like a top 10er. I think his forhand was a lot better today.

That being said I see your general point, and think this match isnt worth predicting. It could honestly go either way

 

[Murrayfan31]

Djokovic would've won this match if it wasn't for Murray.

 

[Ralph]

I wouldn't say mental fatigue will play a part for Novak tomorrow. His mental fatigue would have shown in earlier rounds, where he expects to win easily etc. Hence, concentration harder for long periods. But at this stage, especially after his win today over Murray, he'll be mentally prepared and confident. Physically, who knows.

Mixie P made a good point about how the outcome of this match is likely to affect Ralph, and Novak to a degree. My own call on this one is whoever wins the first set wins the match.

 

[The Djoker]

will this match be on tv? or just espn3?

 

[TMF]

If Nole wants to win tomorrow, he better finish Rafa off in 2 sets. If the match end up in 3 long sets, Nadal will win since Nole will not have any energy left. Nole should have this mindset.

 

[GOAT BAAH!!!]

Djokovic would've won this match if it wasn't for Murray.

Hey man...we missed you earlier....where were you when your favorite player ANDY MURRAY played his heart out against Djoker?

 

[rromeo]

FYI from PMac's twitter

PatrickMcEnroe Patrick McEnroe

Spot on analysis i am hearing rumors the Djoker may not post 4 final

RT @Vanman111: Djoker has wings on feet and (cont) http://tl.gd/af8erh
4 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply

 

[nadalbestclass]

If Nole wants to win tomorrow, he better finish Rafa off in 2 sets. If the match end up in 3 long sets, Nadal will win since Nole will not have any energy left. Nole should have this mindset.

So if Rafa wins tomorrow, will you say he won because Nole was tired?

 

[TMF]

So if Rafa wins tomorrow, will you say he won because Nole was tired?

Everyone know what actually happened in those 2 semifinal matches. I will leave that to you and all the fans to their own conscious.

 

[nadalbestclass]

will this match be on tv? or just espn3?

I don't know if it will be on Espn, maybe? Or Tennis Channel.

 

[nadalbestclass]

Everyone know what actually happened in those 2 semifinal matches. I will leave that to you and all the fans to their own conscious.

LOLLLLLLLLLLLL. Lemme book mark this for the future.

 

[colonelforbin]

Just cause everyone is picking Nadal, I'm going with Novak. May the streak continue.

 

[Mustard]

What's the weather forecast again?

 

[TennisFan3]

All we know is that this year Novak is in WAY better form and mental state than Nadal and that he dominated him with ease in Madrid. I am reading comments how Nadal will win because they are playing on clay and that Novak has not had enough rest..

That IS true. But it's not like Novak has never played on clay before in his life or hasn't played back to back matches with little rest in between. I am picking Nadal in 3, but I won't be surprised if Djokovic won. He seems to relish the Rafa matchup and he will swing even more freely given that he doesn't want to grind out. And right now he's playing on another planet - he's untouchable IMO.

At the same time Nadal probably has a new strategy against Djokovic and is aching for revenge despite what he says. He will need to up his game considerably from what he's shown so far. This match is more important for Nadal than it is for Novak. A loss here for Rafa, would leave the French Open wide open this year...

 

[rromeo]

I searched on Google and on twitter since PMac posted over 4hrs ago and haven't found anything to confirm Joker wasn't playing so prob not true.

 

[TennisFan3]

The frightening thing IMO is that if Djokovic overcomes fatigue and Rafa Nadal in Rome, despite having a tougher draw and unfortunate scheduling -- then he'll; be the favorite for Rolland Garros, without a doubt.

I think in that case Novak will win RG. So really it's a must win match for Nadal..

 

[Mustard]

I'd back Nadal over Djokovic any day of the week when it comes to mental toughness. Djokovic's current confidence is based on his current success, but the best minds hang tough when things are not going well. Nadal is exceptional mentally in success and in adversity.