2020 Australian open final :- [5] Dominic Thiem v/s [2] Novak Djokovic

[quirotkicks]

!!?

He’s facing the best AO player ever who has never lost in an AO final. Dom also has a history of choking or under performing in stressful matches. I think Djokovic wins this and is the prohibitive favorite. I don’t think Thiem is mentally strong enough to challenge him in this event and with the pressure of a final.

If Thiem wins, it would be a huge surprise and upset, I think many are overrating his chances. How many times has he served for sets or matches where he folds at love? He couldn’t serve out his semi against Rafa just last week and that wasn’t a final and it wasn’t against Djokovic.

Many of us are thinking with our hearts.

1. The mens game badly needs a new slam winner.

2. It is heartbreaking to see such a nice guy as Thiem continually make good runs but fall short in the finals time and time again. Even his record in Masters finals is abysmal (losing 2 to Zverev who is generally his pigeon, on clay no less). Many of us want to see him get over his mental block in finals.

3. Theim winning here would put him closer to an equal favorite with Nadal for RG (Nadal would still be #1 yes) and make that event more exciting already.

4. Many people don't want to see Djokovic as a contender for the slam record which they would rather Nadal get if Federer does not maintain, and Djokovic winning here would put him in serious contention for that. Losing would be a major setback to his chances for that.

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

Hitting hard doesn’t win matches. Hitting hard with accuracy does

Basically implied in 'can' there.

 

[Rickenbacker4003]

Hitting hard doesn’t win matches. Hitting hard with accuracy does

He's been doing that these last two weeks. Especially down the line and inside out. His athleticism is underrated.

 

[tennis_pro]

When has he proven he can out grind them at their best slams? I recall Rafa showing otherwise just last year. He did beat Djoker at RG but Djoker didn’t play particularly great. Completely different world beating Djoker on Rod Laver.

Hitting hard doesn’t win matches. Hitting hard with accuracy does

You scared, bro?

I think he scared, son.

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

I don’t think a day less rest has much impact on Thiem. He is young and in a great physical shape.
Novak is the massive favourite, but if Thiem plays the best he is capable, he can beat Novak cause he has done that several times lately. Wonder how Thiem will be in this match mentally.

 

[Oakel]

Are you SERIOUS? Thiem was holding his stomach and looks totally gassed. He also told JMac in the interview that he felt strange and could have even thrown up.
With close to 20 hours on the court, he won't be close to 100% in the final.

Even a fully fit Thiem would have been no matchf for Djokovic. This tired compromised version will be thrashed.

Part of that could be nerves.

Mental pressure can make feel quite tired. He isnt the fav in the final. Whereas today he was even on to make the final.

He is 26 and has two days rest. No reason he shouldn't be rested and ready.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

One thing is for sure, that if a GOATovic shows up.....Thiem is going to need a lot more winners than what he was able to get today, and a better first serve %.

He’s hoping Djoko god mode turns up! The 2019 AO final was amazing. Will be tough for Novak to repeat that but every AO final he’s always found a way to raise his level. Hopefully the same again on Sunday!

 

[Big_Dangerous]

Djokovic will certainly be the favorite, and rightfully so. However, I definitely give Thiem a puncher's chance in this one. I would not be surprised if wins his first major.

If Thiem does win his first major, I would say his 2020 AO run would be quite similar to that of Stan's run in 2014. I remember Stanimal finally took down the giant Djokovic in 5 sets in the quarters, and then beat Nadal in the final in 4 sets. Thiem beat Nadal in the quarters in 4 sets, and it would be super impressive to see him defeat Djokovic in the final.

I'm hoping this one goes 5 sets!

 

[RS]

And here Thiem has less rest and a much tougher draw than Djokovic. The thing is Nadal is always being bashed for any draw, while Federer and Djokovic can have the same draws (or even easier ones) and they are never bashed for it. I already gave you the example of RG 2018 and Rome 2019.

Error from me fixed below.

 

[aditya123]

Many of us are thinking with our hearts.

1. The mens game badly needs a new slam winner.

2. It is heartbreaking to see such a nice guy as Thiem continually make good runs but fall short in the finals time and time again. Even his record in Masters finals is abysmal (losing 2 to Zverev who is generally his pigeon, on clay no less). Many of us want to see him get over his mental block in finals.

3. Theim winning here would put him closer to an equal favorite with Nadal for RG (Nadal would still be #1 yes) and make that event more exciting already.

4. Many people don't want to see Djokovic as a contender for the slam record which they would rather Nadal get if Federer does not maintain, and Djokovic winning here would put him in serious contention for that. Losing would be a major setback to his chances for that.

Liked your 4th point

 

[BeatlesFan]

Many of us are thinking with our hearts.

@quirotkicks Great post. The problem seems to be that so many think that because Thiem is fit and a physical machine, that means he won't get tired and he will fight all match. True, but that's not the point. His issue is mental, as Muster just said last week. He's choked in so many tight situations over the years and he's facing an ATG at his pet slam. Thiem is 26 and in his physical prime, he should beat any 32 year old on any surface, anywhere. But his chances of doing it on Sunday? Probably about 12%.

 

[StrongRule]

Who do you think has had the best of worst of the big 3.

Not sure I understand your question.

 

[roysid]

If Thiem can somehow channel his Stanimal, he stands a chance.
Else and if he let the occasion overwhelms him, he's toast

 

[D.Nalby12]

Thiem in four sets or five sets (choke included).

 

[3fees]

Djokovic v Thiem Djokovic in 3 or 4

Cheers
3Fees

 

[D.Nalby12]

People underestimating Thiem' improvements on hard courts. His main problem isn't Novak but his own head.

 

[Otacon]

I've always liked Austria.

 

[Noleberic123]

Have to be honest. I'm nervous about this match. It should be tough. Having said that, Djokovic in 5! Idemoo

 

[Jokervich]

Many of us are thinking with our hearts.

1. The mens game badly needs a new slam winner.

2. It is heartbreaking to see such a nice guy as Thiem continually make good runs but fall short in the finals time and time again. Even his record in Masters finals is abysmal (losing 2 to Zverev who is generally his pigeon, on clay no less). Many of us want to see him get over his mental block in finals.

3. Theim winning here would put him closer to an equal favorite with Nadal for RG (Nadal would still be #1 yes) and make that event more exciting already.

4. Many people don't want to see Djokovic as a contender for the slam record which they would rather Nadal get if Federer does not maintain, and Djokovic winning here would put him in serious contention for that. Losing would be a major setback to his chances for that.

Didn't realise that being "nice" meant you deserved to win slams. If you can't beat the opponent in front of you, you don't deserve to win it, plain and simple.

 

[D.Nalby12]

@quirotkicks Great post. The problem seems to be that so many think that because Thiem is fit and a physical machine, that means he won't get tired and he will fight all match. True, but that's not the point. His issue is mental, as Muster just said last week. He's choked in so many tight situations over the years and he's facing an ATG at his pet slam. Thiem is 26 and in his physical prime, he should beat any 32 year old on any surface, anywhere. But his chances of doing it on Sunday? Probably about 12%.

I'd give 30-35% chance for Tim.

 

[vex]

You scared, bro?

I think he scared, son.

Of course I’m scared! I’d put Djoker at about a 65% chance. And for his legacy he probably NEEDS this match if he’s going to legitimately remain in the slam chase. So yah.

 

[swordtennis]

Should be an exciting match for sure. I admit Thiem is the best from this side of draw to face Novak. He has a great game. Djoko though is so strong in Melbourne and is so mentally tough.

Djoko knows he needs this slam to make the race even more exciting and close in on Fed and Rafa. Exciting to see a different final old guard vs new guard. May the best man win!

If thiem wins the first set djokovic will have a war on his hands! Getting anxious!

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

If thiem wins the first set djokovic will have a war on his hands! Getting anxious!

Yeah I am too. As thiem is getting better all the time. Will be tough. However, Novak is so good and strong under pressure. Will be tough but I believe in Novak to find a way again

 

[vex]

If thiem wins the first set djokovic will have a war on his hands! Getting anxious!

We gotta have that first set! Let’s go!

 

[mightyjeditribble]

I've gone with Djokovic in 5, but no result would really surprise me. Djokovic is the favourite, but we know that Thiem is able to beat him. The court suits Djokovic's game, but Thiem should be quite able to hang with him. If Thiem shows up the way he started today's match against Zverev, it'll be straight sets to Novak, but otherwise I will be a bit surprised if Dom doesn't at least manage to get a set. Thiem coming out and blasting Djokovic in straight sets is also a (remote) possibility.

 

[swordtennis]

We gotta have that first set! Let’s go!

Thiem is so physically strong. Djokovic has got to take it too him. If he comes out like FO 2015 expecting errors and chokes he is done.

 

[I Am Finnish]

Dont care who wins as long the match will be close and epic as their last meeting that is the most important

 

[I Am Finnish]

I’ve already made this thread yesterday and they deleted it! it’s an disgrace

It was made before the sf

 

[RS]

Not sure I understand your question.

Sorry. Who do you think had it toughest out of Nadal and Djokovic competition wise?

 

[I Am Finnish]

1 important thing @Federer and Del Potro will decide who wins with his memes

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

1 important thing @Federer and Del Potro will who wins with his memes

I’m definitely posting for it unless I somehow fall asleep. Fine with either guy winning

 

[vex]

Thiem is so physically strong. Djokovic has got to take it too him. If he comes out like FO 2015 expecting errors and chokes he is done.

Totally agree with you. I want him to treat it like a Rafa match. Don’t come out and expect Thiem to lose it. Come out and bury him. Dictate. Dominate. Break his belief like he does when he has manhandled Rafa at times. I don’t want see any passive 20 shot safe BH rallies.

 

[I Am Finnish]

I’m definitely posting for it unless I somehow fall asleep. Fine with either guy winning

Cant wait to see your memes

 

[Eren]

@quirotkicks Great post. The problem seems to be that so many think that because Thiem is fit and a physical machine, that means he won't get tired and he will fight all match. True, but that's not the point. His issue is mental, as Muster just said last week. He's choked in so many tight situations over the years and he's facing an ATG at his pet slam. Thiem is 26 and in his physical prime, he should beat any 32 year old on any surface, anywhere. But his chances of doing it on Sunday? Probably about 12%.

Nah, I calculated it. It's 13.57%. But your guess was close.

 

[itsstephenyo]

My head says Djoker takes this, but my heart wants Thiem to break through and win it.

I feel like Thiem has a better chance than most of us are giving him, given that the courts are slower, and Thiem has played some very good matches before this. If Thiem can keep his mind strong, he's got more than a puncher's chance to win it all.

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

Cant wait to see your memes

Honestly I never really took Thiem seriously like I should have . He proved a lot to me this tournament even if he loses badly Sunday

 

[I Am Finnish]

@Meles prediction please

 

[StrongRule]

Sorry. Who do you think had it toughest out of Nadal and Djokovic competition wise?

All of them had easier and harder draws. However, Nadal had to deal with prime Federer at the beginning of his career. And once Federer became a bit worse peak Djokovic arrived. Djokovic never really had to deal with a new rival. He STILL remains the last all time great in tennis, nobody arrived since then. So from that point of view I think he has a big advantage over Federer and Nadal.

 

[swordtennis]

Totally agree with you. I want him to treat it like a Rafa match. Don’t come out and expect Thiem to lose it. Come out and bury him. Dictate. Dominate. Break his belief like he does when he has manhandled Rafa at times. I don’t want see any passive 20 shot safe BH rallies.

If djokovic takes the ball early with deep balls and redirection aka 2016 AO final against fed thiem will have alot of troubles with his massive cuts. Esp with the 1 hbh. Thiem with grosjean is a different animal now. Much more calm.

 

[The Green Mile]

Thiem, 4, 4 & 2. ez

 

[Krish0608]

I’ll call it. Thiem in 5.

 

[The Green Mile]

If djokovic takes the ball early with deep balls and redirection aka 2016 AO final against fed thiem will have alot of troubles with his massive cuts. Esp with the 1 hbh. Thiem with grosjean is a different animal now. Much more calm.

You mean Massu?

 

[tudwell]

I’ll call it. Thiem in 5.

I voted Thiem in 5 too. I’m ready for the paradigm shift. The tennis landscape is about to get a lot different.



(Or Djokodal will win the next 9 slams.)

 

[TennisFan3]

@quirotkicks Great post. The problem seems to be that so many think that because Thiem is fit and a physical machine, that means he won't get tired and he will fight all match. True, but that's not the point. His issue is mental, as Muster just said last week. He's choked in so many tight situations over the years and he's facing an ATG at his pet slam. Thiem is 26 and in his physical prime, he should beat any 32 year old on any surface, anywhere. But his chances of doing it on Sunday? Probably about 12%.

@BeatlesFan - I see you in a magnanimous mood. 12% is too much. I would say close to 5% or less.
Djokovic has almost always won in straights in the Australian Open finals (except a couple of times). He even beat a prime Fed in 2008 in straights in the SF.
You really think Thiem can do any better? The Austrian isn't even in the same stratosphere as the opponents Novak has beaten.

 

[Day_Tripper]

Thiem will win.

 

[gjm127]

Thiem in 4. Lone Djoker set will be a TB.

Surface slow as clay, no wonder Thiem got this far. Also, he is better on faster courts since last year.

It all adds up.

 

[reef58]

If thiem wins the first set djokovic will have a war on his hands! Getting anxious!

I think Thiem has to win the first set. I am a Dojo fan, and really consider this match a 50/50 outcome, but if Joker wins the first set I think Thiem's odds fall way down. I was hoping Zev would make it to the final and get his first slam.

 

[Rina]

If it wasn't Djokovic and me wanting him to overtake Federer and Nadal in slams, I would be very happy for Thiem to win. I also posted that I think the final will be between one of the big three and another player. He is 26 and if Nadal and Djokovic weren't winning everything the last two years and Fed winning 2018 Wimbledon, surely Thiem would have a couple of slam titles by now.

 

[Street]

@BeatlesFan - I see you in a magnanimous mood. 12% is too much. I would say close to 5% or less.
Djokovic has almost always won in straights in the Australian Open finals (except a couple of times). He even beat a prime Fed in 2008 in straights in the SF.
You really think Thiem can do any better? The Austrian isn't even in the same stratosphere as the opponents Novak has beaten.

I wouldn't say 3 out of 7 times is almost always.

 

[RS]

All of them had easier and harder draws. However, Nadal had to deal with prime Federer at the beginning of his career. And once Federer became a bit worse peak Djokovic arrived. Djokovic never really had to deal with a new rival. He STILL remains the last all time great in tennis, nobody arrived since then. So from that point of view I think he has a big advantage over Federer and Nadal.

He did have it crazy tough when Fedal were rising from 2006-2010 he played them 46 times and 2011-2013 was one of the best periods ever as well. I agree with a lot of your stance.