@TennisFan3 I see you've been in an ultra emphatic mood this week. I would caution you because if Thiem wins (which I know you think is impossible, as you've repeatedly stated), it will come back to bite you with the trolls here. They'll mock your certainty for years to come. I would dial back on the aggressive attitude that not even God almighty can defeat Novak at the AO. I was 100% certain Fed would beat Del Po in the USO final, I was 100% certain Ivan would beat Mats in the '88 USO final and that type of hubris didn't work out so well. I was 95% sure Novak would never come back to winning slams once he had his mental breakdown in 2017 in the Pepe period. That sure was wrong!! I've since learned not to be that intransigent or certain since life has many vagaries and so does tennis.@BeatlesFan - I see you in a magnanimous mood. 12% is too much. I would say close to 5% or less.
Djokovic has almost always won in straights in the Australian Open finals (except a couple of times).
You really think Thiem can do any better? The Austrian isn't even in the same stratosphere as the opponents Novak has beaten.
Don't give tennisfan3 much thought. He is an obvious jinx troll. He is not a Djokovic fan by any means.@TennisFan3 I see you've been in an ultra emphatic mood this week. I would caution you because if Thiem wins (which I know you think is impossible, as you've repeatedly stated), it will come back to bite you with the trolls here. They'll mock your certainty for years to come. I would dial back on the aggressive attitude that not even God almighty can defeat Novak at the AO. I was 100% certain Fed would beat Del Po in the USO final, I was 100% certain Ivan would beat Mats in the '88 USO final and that type of hubris didn't work out so well. I was 95% sure Novak would never come back to winning slams once he had his mental breakdown in 2017 in the Pepe period. That sure was wrong!! I've since learned not to be that intransigent or certain since life has many vagaries and so does tennis.
I don't know what else to say, I would be an idiot to say Thiem doesn't have at least a 12% chance. Which gives Novak basically a 90% chance of winning. Thiem isn't Ryan Harrison or Donald Young and he's equally as fit as Novak. you say Domi has a 5% chance, I think 12%, let's not quibble over a 7% difference. There's plenty of people here who think Domi will take this in four. And maybe he will, let's watch the match first.
I was wondering about that. Not sure.Don't give tennisfan3 much thought. He is an obvious jinx troll. He is not a Djokovic fan by any means.
@TennisFan3 I see you've been in an ultra emphatic mood this week. I would caution you because if Thiem wins (which I know you think is impossible, as you've repeatedly stated), it will come back to bite you with the trolls here. They'll mock your certainty for years to come. I would dial back on the aggressive attitude that not even God almighty can defeat Novak at the AO. I was 100% certain Fed would beat Del Po in the USO final, I was 100% certain Ivan would beat Mats in the '88 USO final and that type of hubris didn't work out so well. I was 95% sure Novak would never come back to winning slams once he had his mental breakdown in 2017 in the Pepe period. That sure was wrong!! I've since learned not to be that intransigent or certain since life has many vagaries and so does tennis.
I don't know what else to say, I would be an idiot to say Thiem doesn't have at least a 12% chance. Which gives Novak basically a 90% chance of winning. Thiem isn't Ryan Harrison or Donald Young and he's equally as fit as Novak. you say Domi has a 5% chance, I think 12%, let's not quibble over a 7% difference. There's plenty of people here who think Domi will take this in four. And maybe he will, let's watch the match first.
I'd say Fed.I was wondering about that. Not sure.
Fed or nadal fan?
We have figured you out. Add to ignore list people. This guy is an obvious jinx troll. He is not a fan of Djokovic.Just wanted to say great post @BeatlesFan. I enjoyed reading it.
Thanks for the historical context. I had similar hubris with Pete at Wimbledon at 1996. And to this day no match has shocked me more than his loss to Krajicek. But at least the Dutch went on to win the title.
You're right. Let's see what happens on Sunday. Thiem surely deserves his place in the final.
I have him on ignore for a long time. He writes too much BS to support Djokovic.We have figured you out. Add to ignore list people. This guy is an obvious jinx troll. He is not a fan of Djokovic.
He is not a Djokovic fan. He is from what I gather, a Fed troll.I have him on ignore for a long time. He writes too much BS to support Djokovic.
Likewise, there are many people who don't want Nadal to reach the Grand Slam record and Djokovic is for them a better option as record holder.4. Many people don't want to see Djokovic as a contender for the slam record which they would rather Nadal get if Federer does not maintain, and Djokovic winning here would put him in serious contention for that. Losing would be a major setback to his chances for that.
I have noticed he always says djokovic will destroy his opponent no matter the circumstances. If he really does believe in jinxes he must be ten lolWe have figured you out. Add to ignore list people. This guy is an obvious jinx troll. He is not a fan of Djokovic.
I was wondering about that. Not sure.
Fed or nadal fan?
I'd say Fed.
I think he has mostly overcome these mental lapses. They are no longer a hindrance. If he is in a winning position , he will win.Djokovic a strong favourite.....Hitting through Novak's defenses is one of the toughest challenges on this court if not the toughest...No one absorbs pace like Novak and that's going to hurt Dominic the most since his shots off both wings will be returned with interest...Dominic will need to add some variety to his game and ball bashing from the baseline will not work across five sets. To add to this, you have the intangibles like the moment getting to Thiem. We've had numerous occasions where he's lost matches/sets from winning positions...So even if he's ahead, there is the mental aspect that comes into play....It would truly be remarkable if he overcomes all of this and comes up trumps....I for one am only hoping for a competitive match.
If it’s going 5 I have a hard time seeing Thiem keeping his head right in the 5thI’ll call it. Thiem in 5.
Let's hope that isn't the reason he loses....It's always a tragedy for any player to lose it cause of nerves.I think he has mostly overcome these mental lapses. They are no longer a hindrance. If he is in a winning position , he will win.
haha IKRThe tennis landscape is about to get a lot different.
(Or Djokodal will win the next 9 slams.)
Federer 20 (+4) Nadal 19 (+3) Djokovic 16 Thiem 1 | vs. | Federer 20 (+3) Nadal 19 (+2) Djokovic 17 Thiem 0 |
There are a few possible scenarios. Unfortunately, none of them end with Thiem winning. He has no chance.
Thiem has the game to take the racquet out of Djokovic's hand...much like Stanimal has done several times in Slams.
Based on what? I think the WTF courts actually suit Thiem's game very well, much more than these AO courts.For sure - a guy that beat Djokovic 4 of the last 5 matches and in the two most recent Slam semis and a couple months ago on a hardcourt that didn't suit him as well as this one, has no chance. SMH
Outdoor hard meetings H2H? Djokovic is 2-0 with the most recent meeting in 2016. All straight sets. this is going to be a blowout.
2016 ATP Masters 1000 Miami
FL, U.S.A.Outdoor Hard R16 Novak Djokovic 63 64 2014 ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
ChinaOutdoor Hard R32 Novak Djokovic 63 64
Based on what? I think the WTF courts actually suit Thiem's game very well, much more than these AO courts.
AO courts are almost perfect for Djokovic, this is his favorite tournament. I don't see Thiem beating him here. Look, I can give him 10% of a chance. Just for comparison, Murray in 2015-2016 and Nadal in 2019 had less than 1%. I think Thiem can cause damage, but only if he brings his absolute best. (and this is a big if considering that he already played a few very difficult matches)Slower courts benefit Thiem - Djokovic's flat ball striking and low bounce can benefit greatly from a quicker court. Thiem has more power and the slower court gives him more time to pummel the ball. Faster courts give him less time to set up for all of his shots. Djokovic has more compact strokes - not as long a swing path as Thiem's.
Agreed. And this same dynamic applies possibly even more so to the return. A slower court somewhat diminishes Djokovic’s lead on the return since Thiem himself will be able to get more balls back. And he’s more comfortable stepping back and taking second serves as they drop down on a slower court, knowing he can still catch up in the point afterwards. So he can actually take good cuts at the ball instead of trying to take it on the rise, where he’s not very comfortable.Slower courts benefit Thiem - Djokovic's flat ball striking and low bounce can benefit greatly from a quicker court. Thiem has more power and the slower court gives him more time to pummel the ball. Faster courts give him less time to set up for all of his shots. Djokovic has more compact strokes - not as long a swing path as Thiem's.
I've always liked Austria.
If Thiem wins, I feel it will send shockwaves throughout the tennis world. And all the young and rising players along with Kyrgios, Medvedev, Zverev and Tsitsipas will be even more motivated to go out there and fight even harder. Thiem winning would be a huge inspiration for the young players trying to make inroads. This is a bigger Slam final than people are realizing. It could completely disintegrate the big 3 stranglehold on the Slams.
Rafa's gonna have mixed feelings about this one, that's for sure. He doesn't want Djokovic to win but he really really doesn't want Thiem to win...
!!?
He’s facing the best AO player ever who has never lost in an AO final. Dom also has a history of choking or under performing in stressful matches. I think Djokovic wins this and is the prohibitive favorite. I don’t think Thiem is mentally strong enough to challenge him in this event and with the pressure of a final.
If Thiem wins, it would be a huge surprise and upset, I think many are overrating his chances. How many times has he served for sets or matches where he folds at love? He couldn’t serve out his semi against Rafa just last week and that wasn’t a final and it wasn’t against Djokovic.
I feel the same.I'd say Fed.