AO 2014 SF Nadal vs. Federer

[Crisstti]

Have you watched them in recent matches? Federer playing very well, Nadal making lots of uncharacteristic errors in his last 2 matches. I'm afraid I'm pessimistic unless Nadal improves his performance level considerably from the last couple of matches.

Yeah, many Fed fans talk as if Fed cannot beat Rafa. As if form is irrelevant. Fed almost beat Rafa in straight sets in Cinci people, and Rafa was playing great. Look how he's playing now. He could have lost is straights to Dimitrov (and even to Nishikori). Now, both of them played great and I'm not saying I think Rafa will lose either. It's a tough match to predict.

 

[borg number one]

Federer has a solid chance to win this match. He's playing well and moving pretty well. Nadal was very fortunate not to drop that QF (if he had gone down 2-1 in sets or 2-0 that spelled big trouble). Yet, I do think Nadal win win this next match versus Federer. I'll take Nadal in a four set win in the semifinal, with Nadal winning set 1 and Federer taking set 2. I only watched some of the Murray-Federer highlights. Federer's form during this AO has been quite good so far.

 

[tennisaddict]

Vintage Fed in 4

 

[oscar_2424]

Nadal 6/3 4/6 6/2 7/5

 

[djokovicisananimal]

Nope, the psychological advantage from Rafa will prevail.
Also I think he will be fine, they 'll play in night session, last time against Monfils, it was night session and Rafa played great. I am confident.

Think I'll have to back Nadal at those odds:twisted:

 

[Warmaster]

How are Nadal fans even scared Federer might win this? The last time Federer won in a major against him was 7 years ago :shock:

It doesn't matter if it's going to be close or not, the result is already known.


As if some blisters are going to stop him; Nadal always magically finds his best form against Federer. Wait and see. Not to mention he'll be able to play in the night session now which instantly makes him twice as good.

 

[pds999]

Have you watched them in recent matches? Federer playing very well, Nadal making lots of uncharacteristic errors in his last 2 matches. I'm afraid I'm pessimistic unless Nadal improves his performance level considerably from the last couple of matches.

Rafa will get it done, he always does. Form in the last 2 matches counts for nothing.

 

[Crisstti]

How are Nadal fans even scared Federer might win this? The last time Federer won in a major against him was 7 years ago :shock:

It doesn't matter if it's going to be close or not, the result is already known.


As if some blisters are going to stop him; Nadal always magically finds his best form against Federer. Wait and see. Not to mention he'll be able to play in the night session now which instantly makes him twice as good.

How are Fed fans so lacking in faith in their player?. I guess it's a defense mechanism.

Rafa always "magically" finds his best form against Fed?. Didn't Fed beat him 6-3, 6-0 relatively recently, and came close to beating him in straight sets just a couple months ago, when Rafa was playing way better than now, and without a huge blister on his hand?.

 

[pds999]

Yeah, many Fed fans talk as if Fed cannot beat Rafa. As if form is irrelevant. Fed almost beat Rafa in straight sets in Cinci people, and Rafa was playing great. Look how he's playing now. He could have lost is straights to Dimitrov (and even to Nishikori). Now, both of them played great and I'm not saying I think Rafa will lose either. It's a tough match to predict.

Lot of IF's in there. None of them happened.

 

[ultradr]

Nadal's form in the last two matches, plus nasty hand blister, changes things. And Federer is probably playing his best tennis since he won 2012 Wimbledon.

Hmm, I'm not 100% sure Federer is playing any better than 2013.
He certainly plays different brand of tennis, kinda 90s style 1st strike tennis.

But so far,he just handled ever inconsistent tsonga and Murray who cake walked the draw and
probably still recovering from injury.
I hope nadal can give a real test,

 

[pds999]

How are Fed fans so lacking in faith in their player?. I guess it's a defense mechanism.

Rafa always "magically" finds his best form against Fed?. Didn't Fed beat him 6-3, 6-0 relatively recently, and came close to beating him in straight sets just a couple months ago, when Rafa was playing way better than now, and without a huge blister on his hand?.

That 6-3 6-0 was like 3 years ago wasn't it indoors at the WTF?

He also wasn't close to beating him in straight sets in Cincinatti. Rafa never looked like losing that match the longer it went on.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

Think I'll have to back Nadal at those odds:twisted:

Go for it you'll see, you'll love Rafa's game when you have a bet on him :lol:

 

[ultradr]

Rafa always "magically" finds his best form against Fed?. Didn't Fed beat him 6-3, 6-0 relatively recently, and came close to beating him in straight sets just a couple months ago, when Rafa was playing way better than now, and without a huge blister on his hand?.

What are you talking about?

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=F324&oId=N409

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

When Rafa will have won the 1st set it will be Game over already in Federer's mind

 

[djokovicisananimal]

Go for it you'll see, you'll love Rafa's game when you have a bet on him :lol:

I've backed him before against Djokovic and he lost in straight sets, me and Rafa don't seem to do well when I either bet for him to win or bet against him, it always goes in the opposite direction

I'll back Nadal in the semi final and we will see if I jinx him

 

[Rozroz]

Hmm, I'm not 100% sure Federer is playing any better than 2013.
He certainly plays different brand of tennis, kinda 90s style 1st strike tennis.

But so far,he just handled ever inconsistent tsonga and Murray who cake walked the draw and
probably still recovering from injury.
I hope nadal can give a real test,

hmmm, no, he plays A LOT BETTER than 2013.
whether it's enough for Nadal, i'm not sure cause it's all mental.

 

[Crisstti]

Lot of IF's in there. None of them happened.

No ifs actually Just countering the idea that Fed somehow cannot beat Rafa. It's pretty much irrelevant for that that he lost that match. It was very competitive and he could well have won it, with Rafa playing way better than he is now.

That 6-3 6-0 was like 3 years ago wasn't it indoors at the WTF?

He also wasn't close to beating him in straight sets in Cincinatti. Rafa never looked like losing that match the longer it went on.

I think it was two years ago.

He was very close to beating him in straight sets. Rafa sure looked like losing in that moment.

 

[Solo]

I am going to say Federer in 4. He has been playing good Tennis lately and he seems more confident than last year plus Nadal has been looking shaky for the last few matches, going to tie breakers and what not.

Federer NEEDS to win the first set, very very important otherwise Nadal will run away with it.

 

[FreeBird]

I dont know why but I think Fed will take this match in 4 sets. His new stick is looking like a magic wand. The new stick has improved his BH and serve. I have not seen Federer playing this good for a whole tournament in the past 3 years...yes, past 3 years (there is an enigmatic flare atm I can see which might not be visible to others )

 

[Hood_Man]

He was very close to beating him in straight sets. Rafa sure looked like losing in that moment.

That's kind of the point, Federer's had so many close-but-no-cigar moments against Nadal in the last 5-6 years that it's hard to be too enthusiastic.

He could have evened the score at 1 set all in the 2008 WIM if he'd held serve.

He could have led by a set in the 2009 AO if he'd held serve.

He could have led Nadal by a set in the 2011 FO if he'd held serve.

He could have led by 2 sets in the 2012 AO if he'd held serve.

Federer had only been broken twice in the grass season in the lead up to the 2008 final; Fed still lost.

Nadal played more than 5 hours in the semi final while Fed had an easier time in the earlier semi; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy who stopped Novak's run in 2011, while Nadal went to 5 sets in the first round, and was a point away from losing a 3rd set several times against Anujar in the second; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy on the winning streak at the start of 2012 after dominating the indoor 2011 season, and after thrashing Nadal in the WTF, and not losing a set enroute to their meeting (compared to the 1 Nadal lost to Berdych in the round before); Fed still lost.

It's disingenuous to not see why Fed's fans aren't optimistic about his chances, we've heard this bedtime story too many times before, and there's only so many times someone can shout "boo" before you see it coming a mile off.

I agree that Federer's playing well, and that Nadal's form has dropped, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that that's rarely mattered in the past so I fail to see why it makes sense to ridicule people for it.

 

[urundai]

That's kind of the point, Federer's had so many close-but-no-cigar moments against Nadal in the last 5-6 years that it's hard to be too enthusiastic.

He could have evened the score at 1 set all in the 2008 WIM if he'd held serve.

He could have led by a set in the 2009 AO if he'd held serve.

He could have led Nadal by a set in the 2011 FO if he'd held serve.

He could have led by 2 sets in the 2012 AO if he'd held serve.

Federer had only been broken twice in the grass season in the lead up to the 2008 final; Fed still lost.

Nadal played more than 5 hours in the semi final while Fed had an easier time in the earlier semi; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy who stopped Novak's run in 2011, while Nadal went to 5 sets in the first round, and was a point away from losing a 3rd set several times against Anujar in the second; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy on the winning streak at the start of 2012 after dominating the indoor 2011 season, and after thrashing Nadal in the WTF, and not losing a set enroute to their meeting (compared to the 1 Nadal lost to Berdych in the round before); Fed still lost.

It's disingenuous to not see why Fed's fans aren't optimistic about his chances, we've heard this bedtime story too many times before, and there's only so many times someone can shout "boo" before you see it coming a mile off.

I agree that Federer's playing well, and that Nadal's form has dropped, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that that's rarely mattered in the past so I fail to see why it makes sense to ridicule people for it.

If only history is a way to predict the future, I would be a billionaire. I am going with GOAT in 4. We shall see.

 

[mcenroefan]

Fed will try to end points early....Nadal will attempt to make it an endurance test.

In this match, Fed stands about the same chance as a 32 year-old Nadal would stand against a 27 year-old Fed.....not extremely high.

Much credit to Fed though for raising his level and getting this far.....really remarkable. Very few thought he would beat Tsonga much less Murray.

 

[Enigma]

I'm so excited!

 

[Day Tripper]

Don't underestimate the effect that Nadals blisters will have on him physically and mentally.

This could be a defining moment for tennis.

Can Federer prevent Nadal from taking his slam record or does tennis go the way of baseball and cycling before it.

Go Roger!

 

[mcenroefan]

I dont know why but I think Fed will take this match in 4 sets. His new stick is looking like a magic wand. The new stick has improved his BH and serve. I have not seen Federer playing this good for a whole tournament in the past 3 years...yes, past 3 years (there is an enigmatic flare atm I can see which might not be visible to others )

The new stick has helped and Fed has made the transition far more easily than many could. There is no denying, however, that Fed has gradually lost a couple of steps over the last four-five years and those missing steps hurt him most against Nole and Nadal.

Fed should have switched rackets four years ago when his movement was in its early decline....even he has acknowledged that he has been toying with the thought for years.

 

[Crisstti]

That's kind of the point, Federer's had so many close-but-no-cigar moments against Nadal in the last 5-6 years that it's hard to be too enthusiastic.

He could have evened the score at 1 set all in the 2008 WIM if he'd held serve.

He could have led by a set in the 2009 AO if he'd held serve.

He could have led Nadal by a set in the 2011 FO if he'd held serve.

He could have led by 2 sets in the 2012 AO if he'd held serve.

Federer had only been broken twice in the grass season in the lead up to the 2008 final; Fed still lost.

Nadal played more than 5 hours in the semi final while Fed had an easier time in the earlier semi; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy who stopped Novak's run in 2011, while Nadal went to 5 sets in the first round, and was a point away from losing a 3rd set several times against Anujar in the second; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy on the winning streak at the start of 2012 after dominating the indoor 2011 season, and after thrashing Nadal in the WTF, and not losing a set enroute to their meeting (compared to the 1 Nadal lost to Berdych in the round before); Fed still lost.

It's disingenuous to not see why Fed's fans aren't optimistic about his chances, we've heard this bedtime story too many times before, and there's only so many times someone can shout "boo" before you see it coming a mile off.

I agree that Federer's playing well, and that Nadal's form has dropped, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that that's rarely mattered in the past so I fail to see why it makes sense to ridicule people for it.

I wasn't trying to ridicule anyone, I'm sorry if it came off that way. I just think Fed fans are being way too pessimistic, precisely because of what you say, so I do think it's probably a defense mechanism to put his odds so low. I do think the Cinci match is different to the examples you mentioned, as he was actually very close to win the match. With Rafa playing a lot better than he has in the last two matches, how isn't that going to be a good indicator that his chances aren't exactly bad?.

Maybe I'm doing the same and giving Rafa lesser odds than I should, but still.

Also, Rafa's level increased throughout RG 2011, and that hasn't been the case here. He was also playing very well leading into their 2012 match here, and really should have won against Berdy in straight sets, if not for a bad call. I'm not sure when have they played at a slam when Rafa's level had been so (comparatively) poor the previous match.

I'd guess (as I think we all would) that Fed's best chance to win would be in 3 or 4 sets.

 

[TopFH]

Hopefully Eva Asderaki is the umpire...

 

[mightyrick]

It's disingenuous to not see why Fed's fans aren't optimistic about his chances, we've heard this bedtime story too many times before, and there's only so many times someone can shout "boo" before you see it coming a mile off.

I agree that Federer's playing well, and that Nadal's form has dropped, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that that's rarely mattered in the past so I fail to see why it makes sense to ridicule people for it.

Yeah, this is my point also. When Fed/Nadal play... both of their forms in the past don't matter. I really think it will be Nadal in 4... mainly because I do not believe he will change any tactics.

Nadal's weakness is that he must have time to set up his tactics. He cannot play fast. Gulbis/Soderling/Dimitrov/Djokovic have all exposed this weakness. When you play Nadal with consistent pounding, hard, flat shots... there is little he can do except play defense and wait for you to miss. Nadal doesn't get beaten by "all-courters". Nadal gets beaten by guys who crush the forehand constantly.

The problem for Roger is he doesn't play that way. Roger mixes it up. Roger will pound the forehand for two shots... and then slice. Well... that resets the point and allows Nadal to get back into it. That's Federer's problem. You can't beat Nadal by "resetting the point" every three shots.

I hope Edberg tells Federer to just pound the forehand, forget the slice, and come to net. I hope Federer listens. It will make for a much more interesting match.

 

[TheAnty-vic]

TheSexiMasterClass will win the first set easily, like 6-3 or something.
Then Rafa will come back in the second, and go on to win the match in 4 sets! (If & only if his blister is not bothering his serve anymore)
That's the way I see it. And hopefully, that'll be the case!

 

[Nathaniel_Near]

Can't wait for this match!

History shows Nadal will probably win, but despite what can't be escaped, Federer is closer to his top form than Nadal is his and providing he can last physically, has a legitimately great shot to win this match and also later on, his 18th Major.

Roger Federer in 4, I'll go against the grain for this one.

Good luck to the man.

 

[manley0702]

How are Fed fans so lacking in faith in their player?. I guess it's a defense mechanism.

Rafa always "magically" finds his best form against Fed?. Didn't Fed beat him 6-3, 6-0 relatively recently, and came close to beating him in straight sets just a couple months ago, when Rafa was playing way better than now, and without a huge blister on his hand?.

Exactly. It's just a defense mechanism so if he loses, the Nadal fans won't hound them too much. Excluding 2013 (which Fed was in terrible form for), Nadal is 5-4 against Fed since he last beat him at the AO in 2009. This should be extremely competitive.

 

[tipsa...don'tlikehim!]

Roof could be closed, rain is expected.

But well, WTF was played under a roof too

 

[Hood_Man]

I wasn't trying to ridicule anyone, I'm sorry if it came off that way. I just think Fed fans are being way too pessimistic, precisely because of what you say, so I do think it's probably a defense mechanism to put his odds so low. I do think the Cinci match is different to the examples you mentioned, as he was actually very close to win the match. With Rafa playing a lot better than he has in the last two matches, how isn't that going to be a good indicator that his chances aren't exactly bad?.

Maybe I'm doing the same and giving Rafa lesser odds than I should, but still.

Also, Rafa's level increased throughout RG 2011, and that hasn't been the case here. He was also playing very well leading into their 2012 match here, and really should have won against Berdy in straight sets, if not for a bad call. I'm not sure when have they played at a slam when Rafa's level had been so (comparatively) poor the previous match.

I'd guess (as I think we all would) that Fed's best chance to win would be in 3 or 4 sets.

Sorry Crisstti, I came across a lot harsher than I meant to there, you're one of the cool ones

I just wish I had your optimism!

 

[Emiliano55]

http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Melbourne+ASXX0075:1:AS

If it does rain then is the god of tennis that is telling Roger "go for it, kid".... just as he did at Wimby 2012.

 

[flyinghippos101]

Probably one of the more decidedly uncertain fedal matchups in years. Rafa looked terrible yesterday, myabe the worst I've seen him in a while, whereas Fed played steady, but had blips that cost him a straight sets win. Even if Fed races out of the gates, leave it up to Fed to just hopelessly fumble the ball and find a way to lose. Nadal might be patchy for a while until he finds his bearings, but he'll outlast Fed physically as the match drags on and turn it into an attritional battle. I think Rafa will win, but definitely won't be easy, or pretty for that matter

 

[Alchemist]

Biased poll op.How You declared Federer as 'GOAT'
Now on topic , considering form of Federer , he should take this one in 4. but Rafa is fighter so fingers are crossed.

 

[manley0702]

Biased poll op.How You declared Federer as 'GOAT'
Now on topic , considering form of Federer , he should take this one in 4. but Rafa is fighter so fingers are crossed.

I'll go Federer: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6, 7-5

 

[Dedans Penthouse]

Biased poll op.How You declared Federer as 'GOAT'
Now on topic , considering form of Federer , he should take this one in 4. but Rafa is fighter so fingers are crossed.

Spot on Alchemist; I didn't vote in the poll on principle alone because of the 1,000 stupid fanboy GOAT threads already littering this board.

That said:

Federer in 4 fairly easy sets: 6-3; 5-7; 6-3; 6-3 (however if Nadal doesn't win either of the first 2 sets, then Fed takes him out in straights).

I saw it from round 1 onward about Fed's "old fed" play coming to life (Edberg+racquet=improved backhand, volleys, confidence) while Nadal's game looks like it's slipping (getting pushed wide on his backhand & sloppy serving) and that he was getting by more and more on just grit and reputaton.

And now I'm beginning to see Rafa's inside-out forehand starting to leak 'wide' (hitting late) and I'm not sure it's because of his grip being compromised but whatever, it seems something's "up" with Fed's game and something's "not up" with Rafa's.

Fed wins this SF match, he'll have his 18th in the bag.

 

[Backspin1183]

Wow! The Poll!

Roger's the favorite, no? Rafa gonna try his best or he don't get no chance to win, no?
Vamos Rafa!

 

[Tomxc]

What happened to that awesome GIF?

 

[ultradr]

hmmm, no, he plays A LOT BETTER than 2013.
whether it's enough for Nadal, i'm not sure cause it's all mental.

Hmm, do you still think Federer's issue with Nadal is *all* mental ? after all these
years, 30+ matches between them, time and time again?

 

[Forehand Of Doom]

If it weren't for the blister on Rafa's hand, I would say Rafa in 4. With the blister and the way it's affecting Nadal's game, I have no idea.

 

[FreeBird]

Edberg and GOAT have already started their journey to 18th Slam. Side please.

 

[Crisstti]

Roof could be closed, rain is expected.

But well, WTF was played under a roof too

Gee, could something else go against Rafa here? :-?

Sorry Crisstti, I came across a lot harsher than I meant to there, you're one of the cool ones

I just wish I had your optimism!

Oh, no problem Hood!

 

[ultradr]

If it weren't for the blister on Rafa's hand, I would say Rafa in 4. With the blister and the way it's affecting Nadal's game, I have no idea.

yeah, Nadal has won slams with blisters, AFAIK. But this time, it seems to have
happened later in the tournament, from the beginning of 2nd week.

Or maybe he slightly over-exerted himself to overpower Monfils and that might
have incurred the blister. That's was somewhat uncharacteristical for Nadal.

 

[winstonplum]

That's kind of the point, Federer's had so many close-but-no-cigar moments against Nadal in the last 5-6 years that it's hard to be too enthusiastic.

He could have evened the score at 1 set all in the 2008 WIM if he'd held serve.

He could have led by a set in the 2009 AO if he'd held serve.

He could have led Nadal by a set in the 2011 FO if he'd held serve.

He could have led by 2 sets in the 2012 AO if he'd held serve.

Federer had only been broken twice in the grass season in the lead up to the 2008 final; Fed still lost.

Nadal played more than 5 hours in the semi final while Fed had an easier time in the earlier semi; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy who stopped Novak's run in 2011, while Nadal went to 5 sets in the first round, and was a point away from losing a 3rd set several times against Anujar in the second; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy on the winning streak at the start of 2012 after dominating the indoor 2011 season, and after thrashing Nadal in the WTF, and not losing a set enroute to their meeting (compared to the 1 Nadal lost to Berdych in the round before); Fed still lost.

It's disingenuous to not see why Fed's fans aren't optimistic about his chances, we've heard this bedtime story too many times before, and there's only so many times someone can shout "boo" before you see it coming a mile off.

I agree that Federer's playing well, and that Nadal's form has dropped, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that that's rarely mattered in the past so I fail to see why it makes sense to ridicule people for it.

Excellent points, but Fed has a huge chance because he's playing a Nadal who thinks the racquet is going to slip out of his hand when he serves. Personally, I'm kind of bummed. Under normal circumstances, I would feel really good about Nadal's chances, but it hard to deny that Fed's playing a player that has a gaping wound on his hand.

No excuses. Just facts. If Federer win, good on him. He can only play who's in front of him.

 

[Shangri La]

This is probably a night session match -- won't be able to watch! >.<

 

[winstonplum]

Rain on horizon? Nice.

Now put Eva Asderaki in the chair, close the roof, lay some carpet down. Let's see what Nadal is really made out of.

Things looking very shaky in Nadal world. But then again, I've doubted him before, to my own detriment.

 

[Crisstti]

yeah, Nadal has won slams with blisters, AFAIK. But this time, it seems to have
happened later in the tournament, from the beginning of 2nd week.

Or maybe he slightly over-exerted himself to overpower Monfils and that might
have incurred the blister. That's was somewhat uncharacteristical for Nadal.

I don't remember him winning a slam with blisters before. This blister has been around since before the tournament started. He had been practising wit tape and took it out for matches but then started playing with it since the match against Nishikori.

 

[snowwhite]

I think Federer in 3 or 4